Is this what the Maple Leafs need to do?

[REV-G]

I wasn't sure where this thread should go so I just put here because it's an observation, opinion about the Maple Leafs and their GM, Kyle Dubas. We've had lots of discussion about our own GM so I wanted to make a comment about Dubas. 

 

I'm beginning to think that Shanahan made a mistake when he let Lou Lamoriello go and kept Dubas as his GM. Here's why. In Dubas's first year as GM the Islanders lost Tavares to Toronto and made the Islanders look bad. They lost their star premier player for nothing. Toronto stole him from under their noses, in effect. Win for Dubas? Maybe, maybe not. 

 

I believe the top 5 star players Toronto currently has were drafted during Lamoriello's watch with the Leafs. When Shanahan let LL go and kept Dubas look at what has happened since. The Islanders have built a very solid team, made some key trades and have built a younger team with players that made it to the final 4 this year. Lamoriello has been named GM of the year for the past two years. 

 

Dubas on the other hand inherited a very talented team, on paper at least, and they did very well this past regular season. But the goal for every team is to get into the playoffs and win rounds to ultimately compete for and win the Stanley Cup. 

 

Under Dubas's watch they have failed to win a single round in the playoffs to date. For me the concern for Leaf fans is that at the end of every year everyone talks about the evident weakness the Leafs have and then Dubas goes out and tries to get players to fix it. He doesn't seem to have a plan the way LL or even Bergevin does, like them or not. At least these two GM's have a plan that they have tried to implement. I am beginning to seriously doubt if Dubas has that ability yet. 

 

So if you're Shanahan and you've had 4-5 years of this return when do you make a change? You can't keep changing all the players and coaches and at some point not look at the one who is putting all these pieces together, that isn't working when it counts. It's not like they're missing by a little bit, with all their talent they have lost in the first round every year for what, 4 or 5 years in a row.

 

I think that's their probably right now, the GM. If Shanahan had kept LL what would Toronto's story be today?  I think they would be contending for the cup. He would have made trades to build the Leafs like he's done with the Islanders. I think they made a mistake. My prediction is that if the same thing happens next year and the Leafs lose in the first round, Dubas will be gone and they will have wasted some very key years when they should have been playing for the cup. Time will tell. We'll see what happens next year.

 

Thoughts?    

 

 

 

 

[DON]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[REV-G]

Lol. I think I was expecting a hockey response/discussion with a little more substance to it! 

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, REV-G said:

[...]

Thoughts?    

 

 

 

 

 

[Commandant]

I hope they are shit for ever. 

[hab29RETIRED]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

I hope they are shit for ever. 

Your too kind. I hope they are a mix shit, piss and vomit forever.

[dlbalr]

Since there isn't much interest in extended discussion on this topic, I'll simply post a link with some of my thoughts as this type of question came up in a mailbag column for PHR earlier this month.  Hopefully that's the type of answer you were looking for, REV-G.  https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2021/06/phr-mailbag-tocchet-expansion-jones-eichel-buffalos-coaching-search-maple-leafs-ristolainen-blue-jackets-flames-bruins.html

[Habsfan89]

11 hours ago, REV-G said:

I wasn't sure where this thread should go so I just put here because it's an observation, opinion about the Maple Leafs and their GM, Kyle Dubas. We've had lots of discussion about our own GM so I wanted to make a comment about Dubas. 

 

I'm beginning to think that Shanahan made a mistake when he let Lou Lamoriello go and kept Dubas as his GM. Here's why. In Dubas's first year as GM the Islanders lost Tavares to Toronto and made the Islanders look bad. They lost their star premier player for nothing. Toronto stole him from under their noses, in effect. Win for Dubas? Maybe, maybe not. 

 

I believe the top 5 star players Toronto currently has were drafted during Lamoriello's watch with the Leafs. When Shanahan let LL go and kept Dubas look at what has happened since. The Islanders have built a very solid team, made some key trades and have built a younger team with players that made it to the final 4 this year. Lamoriello has been named GM of the year for the past two years. 

 

Dubas on the other hand inherited a very talented team, on paper at least, and they did very well this past regular season. But the goal for every team is to get into the playoffs and win rounds to ultimately compete for and win the Stanley Cup. 

 

Under Dubas's watch they have failed to win a single round in the playoffs to date. For me the concern for Leaf fans is that at the end of every year everyone talks about the evident weakness the Leafs have and then Dubas goes out and tries to get players to fix it. He doesn't seem to have a plan the way LL or even Bergevin does, like them or not. At least these two GM's have a plan that they have tried to implement. I am beginning to seriously doubt if Dubas has that ability yet. 

 

So if you're Shanahan and you've had 4-5 years of this return when do you make a change? You can't keep changing all the players and coaches and at some point not look at the one who is putting all these pieces together, that isn't working when it counts. It's not like they're missing by a little bit, with all their talent they have lost in the first round every year for what, 4 or 5 years in a row.

 

I think that's their probably right now, the GM. If Shanahan had kept LL what would Toronto's story be today?  I think they would be contending for the cup. He would have made trades to build the Leafs like he's done with the Islanders. I think they made a mistake. My prediction is that if the same thing happens next year and the Leafs lose in the first round, Dubas will be gone and they will have wasted some very key years when they should have been playing for the cup. Time will tell. We'll see what happens next year.

 

Thoughts?    

 

 

 

 

Toronto problem and you can throw in Edmonton also is when they were doing their rebuild they kept on drafting best available player. End result is that they became forward heavy and weak on D and in net. Which is still there weaknesses today.

 

When Montreal did their retool they draft best available player for team need. We needed a center we drafted Kotkaniemi over tkachuk. We needed a skilled winger with speed that could score we draft Caufeild. 

 

When Bob Gainey did our 5 year rebuild plan he built the team from the net out. But that left us weak at forward. But out of that rebuild we got Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Gallagher and we should of kept Mcdonagh.

 

Having good scouting staff and a good development program helps too. Our development program went to shit once we started to be a regular playoff team and then cup finals favorite. We just stopped drafting and developing players and traded our picks looking for that final piece of the puzzle, which we never found.  When Bergevin took over we pretty much had no good prospects in the farm system.

 

But full mark's to Bergevin because since the retool and change of philosophy he's done a great job in drafting best available player for team need. 

[johnnyhasbeen]

Dumbass manages by stats. He will build a great baseball team out of the Leafs yet. Here is the problem with advanced stats. THIS ISNT BASEBALL! That is all. 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

Dumbass manages by stats. He will build a great baseball team out of the Leafs yet. Here is the problem with advanced stats. THIS ISNT BASEBALL! That is all. 

 

Does he really manage by stats?

 

Stats would have told him not to sign joe thornton, wayne simmonds, Zach bogosian, 

 

They would have told him to trade for taylor hall and not nick foligno.

 

They would have told him to do a lot of things different than what he did.

 

There has been an assumption that dubas only uses analytics.  But the reality is that  his actions in the last year were to add veterans and grit and totally away from using analytics.  

 

But sure cause he failed and hes young, analytics must not work even though he is going against them in his acquisitions over the last year.

 

Dubas is a guy who has been working in the OHL since he was like a teenager.  Does he use analytics, yes sometimes.  Does he base some moves on other things, yes he does that too.

 

As for them not working... why does every team have an analytics department... and why does Tampa make extensive use of them (far more than dubas). I guess they dont work though.

 

Every team in the league is looking at numbers.  No team uses them exclusively and no team ignores them completely.  Every team combines both traditional scouting and advanced stats cause they are proven to work.  And they are getting better all the time.  

 

The Hawks and Kings in the late 00s were amongst the first teams to use them.  They won 5 cups in 6 years when they had an advantage over teams who didnt use them.  And that is why every team uses them today.

 

But sure... rant and rave about this not being baseball... it doesnt make the math any less valuable

[GHT120]

14 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

... When Montreal did their retool they draft best available player for team need.  ... We needed a skilled winger with speed that could score we draft Caufeild ... 

Caufield was the consensus 12th ranked prospect ... 9th by McKenzie, 5th by Button, two of the three HockeyWriters rankers had him 3rd and 5th ... so, don't see that he wasn't likely the best player available ... 3-10 teams passed over him, many likely due to size ... 

 

KK is still (IMO) somewhat of an unknown ... he has had two outstanding post-seasons, tied for Habs goal scoring lead (cumulative 9 goals in 27 goals, to date) ... but, those followed two regular seasons in which he scored a total of 11 goals in 92 games (20 off his playoff pace of 31/92) ... it is obviously great that he is a playoff performer, but the Habs will need more from regular season KK to ensure playoff appearances.

[Habsfan89]

5 hours ago, GHT120 said:

Caufield was the consensus 12th ranked prospect ... 9th by McKenzie, 5th by Button, two of the three HockeyWriters rankers had him 3rd and 5th ... so, don't see that he wasn't likely the best player available ... 3-10 teams passed over him, many likely due to size ... 

 

KK is still (IMO) somewhat of an unknown ... he has had two outstanding post-seasons, tied for Habs goal scoring lead (cumulative 9 goals in 27 goals, to date) ... but, those followed two regular seasons in which he scored a total of 11 goals in 92 games (20 off his playoff pace of 31/92) ... it is obviously great that he is a playoff performer, but the Habs will need more from regular season KK to ensure playoff appearances.

Yeah but we drafted them because we were weak at that position. If we were strong down the middle we would of never taken the chance at drafting Kotkaniemi.

[hab29RETIRED]

21 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

Toronto problem and you can throw in Edmonton also is when they were doing their rebuild they kept on drafting best available player. End result is that they became forward heavy and weak on D and in net. Which is still there weaknesses today.

 

When Montreal did their retool they draft best available player for team need. We needed a center we drafted Kotkaniemi over tkachuk. We needed a skilled winger with speed that could score we draft Caufeild. 

 

When Bob Gainey did our 5 year rebuild plan he built the team from the net out. But that left us weak at forward. But out of that rebuild we got Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Gallagher and we should of kept Mcdonagh.

 

Having good scouting staff and a good development program helps too. Our development program went to shit once we started to be a regular playoff team and then cup finals favorite. We just stopped drafting and developing players and traded our picks looking for that final piece of the puzzle, which we never found.  When Bergevin took over we pretty much had no good prospects in the farm system.

 

But full mark's to Bergevin because since the retool and change of philosophy he's done a great job in drafting best available player for team need. 

I don’t think so. I think they went who they thought was BPA with both KK and Caufield. KK, Tkachuk, and Hughes were all rated close together, and KK had moved up during the last 3-4 months in his draft year. 
Caufield was a no brainer - it was a surprise he was available that late. It reminded me of when Fowler, and Forsberg  dropped down in their draft years. Those become no brainer BPA picks.

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

Yeah but we drafted them because we were weak at that position. If we were strong down the middle we would of never taken the chance at drafting Kotkaniemi.

Totally agree that was why they drafted KK ... was not questioning that ... just making general observation ... was questioning considering CC a positional pick ... felt he was the best player available (and a lovely gift from the teams that passed on him because of his size)

[Habsfan89]

9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Totally agree that was why they drafted KK ... was not questioning that ... just making general observation ... was questioning considering CC a positional pick ... felt he was the best player available (and a lovely gift from the teams that passed on him because of his size)

The old Bergevin would of never drafted him because of his size. But when Bergevin started the retool he started to draft players for today's NHL. CC fits that mold perfectly. 

[johnnyhasbeen]

On 6/30/2021 at 10:09 AM, Commandant said:

 

 

But sure... rant and rave about this not being baseball... it doesnt make the math any less valuable

 1 Small post on a topic does not a rant and rave make. Your response? That is a rant and rave. Just saying. 

[Commandant]

42 minutes ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

 1 Small post on a topic does not a rant and rave make. Your response? That is a rant and rave. Just saying. 

 

You are the one shouting "THIS ISN'T BASEBALL" and spewing facts that you know nothing about....  I presented the logical argument of why you are wrong, not a rant at all. 

[johnnyhasbeen]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

You are the one shouting "THIS ISN'T BASEBALL" and spewing facts that you know nothing about....  I presented the logical argument of why you are wrong, not a rant at all. 

Is this not a group where opinions are shared and not just facts? Is everything you post actual fact and never just your opinion? I do have an opinion of you but will keep it civil. Let me just say, I do not value all of yours but don't spent my time attacking them. To me that is not the point of these groups but I do understand and accept that a few of you get off on that stuff. Enjoy your game day.

[Commandant]

4 hours ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

Is this not a group where opinions are shared and not just facts? Is everything you post actual fact and never just your opinion? I do have an opinion of you but will keep it civil. Let me just say, I do not value all of yours but don't spent my time attacking them. To me that is not the point of these groups but I do understand and accept that a few of you get off on that stuff. Enjoy your game day.

 

You are certainly allowed to share your opinion.

 

You are not free from being critiqued about that opinion when someone else disagrees with it.  That goes for everyone here including me. 

 

I critiqued your opinion with a rebuttal based on facts.  I didn't personally attack you (and to be clear, you didn't attack me either).  That's the way a forum is supposed to work.  If we all agree, this place gets boring really fast.

[tomh009]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

If we all agree, this place gets boring really fast.

Oh, I can't agree with that! 🤣 🤣 🤣