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Is this the start of a full-scale rebuild?


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11 hours ago, Dalhabs said:

Maybe KK is the Danault replacement.

We need some more cheap C luck.

 

I do see KK as an eventual two-way 2nd-line C - although he may end up more as a 3rd-line C. Hard to tell at this early stage. That’s why the org probably needs a transitional C to tide us over until KK fully emerges.

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55 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I do see KK as an eventual two-way 2nd-line C - although he may end up more as a 3rd-line C. Hard to tell at this early stage. That’s why the org probably needs a transitional C to tide us over until KK fully emerges.

Agree. Or if Price is gone get a #1 in Eichal (assuming no lasting big health issues), and have the luxury as Suzuki being the number #2 with Caufield and Anderson. 

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9 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

Isn't that what Yanni Gourde is? Or Jordan Staal when he was with the Penguins? It's rare and takes quite a bit of team depth, but it can be done.

 

Staal was that briefly in Pittsburgh, then became too expensive for that role.  Gourde isn't a 50-point player most years; he was a top-six guy the one time in his career he did it.  In this cap era, teams typically can't afford guys with that many points on the third line.

 

In 2018-19 - the last full season - there were 112 players with 50 or more points.  13 were defencemen, leaving 99 forwards.  There's 30 teams in the league so each team, on average, should roughly have three.  Having a 50-point guy on the third line means a team would likely have seven.  That can't be done for any extended period of time in this cap environment.  It's hard to accomplish amassing that much depth and even harder to afford it.  Now, if you're a 50-point player, you're a top-six guy.

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5 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Staal was that briefly in Pittsburgh, then became too expensive for that role.  Gourde isn't a 50-point player most years; he was a top-six guy the one time in his career he did it.  In this cap era, teams typically can't afford guys with that many points on the third line.

 

In 2018-19 - the last full season - there were 112 players with 50 or more points.  13 were defencemen, leaving 99 forwards.  There's 30 teams in the league so each team, on average, should roughly have three.  Having a 50-point guy on the third line means a team would likely have seven.  That can't be done for any extended period of time in this cap environment.  It's hard to accomplish amassing that much depth and even harder to afford it.  Now, if you're a 50-point player, you're a top-six guy.

 

Maybe I was giving Staal and Gourde a little too much credit, but Staal hit 49 points twice, in addition to his 50 point season in Pittsburgh. Gourde came really close with 48 two years ago and was on pace for well over 50 this season. My point was just that it is possible for 50 point caliber players to have 3rd line roles on the right team.

 

You're absolutely right that a 50 point 3rd liner is not going to be a 3rd liner in the long run. We saw that with Staal going to Carolina and Gourde likely going to Seattle. They are very rare and only last as long as they can be held with reasonable contracts. A lot of dominoes have to fall just right for it to happen. Suzuki settles in as a #1. Kotkianiemi developing into a #2. Poehling developing into a 50 point player. Keeping talent around them. It highly unlikely, but with the team having control over them for several more years because of their ages, it is an outside possibility until they would have to choose which two of the three to extend though their UFA years.

 

I learned a lot about Yanni Gourde researching this post. I had no idea he was 29, undrafted, and had been down to the ECHL. I figured he was a 25 year old 2nd rounder. What a late bloomer!

 

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We have a pretty well balanced team in their early 20's, late 20's and 30's, so we'd have to move a lot of guys out to pivot towards a rebuild.  I would still like to see us get younger, but it looks like our team structure is entrenched for the foreseeable future. There won't be much cap available.  Can't see any major changes unless we fall off a cliff and miss the playoffs by a lot.  

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1 hour ago, Neech said:

We have a pretty well balanced team in their early 20's, late 20's and 30's, so we'd have to move a lot of guys out to pivot towards a rebuild.  I would still like to see us get younger, but it looks like our team structure is entrenched for the foreseeable future. There won't be much cap available.  Can't see any major changes unless we fall off a cliff and miss the playoffs by a lot.  

The premise of the rebuild was that Seattle would select Price ... with Weber also out for the season (forever?) two foundational pieces of the Cup-run team would be gone, three if Danault leaves ... that could/would have made a rebuild (or a deep-dive retool) a viable option.

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4 hours ago, Neech said:

We have a pretty well balanced team in their early 20's, late 20's and 30's, so we'd have to move a lot of guys out to pivot towards a rebuild.  I would still like to see us get younger, but it looks like our team structure is entrenched for the foreseeable future. There won't be much cap available.  Can't see any major changes unless we fall off a cliff and miss the playoffs by a lot.  

Making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher next year. 

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3 hours ago, GHT120 said:

The premise of the rebuild was that Seattle would select Price ... with Weber also out for the season (forever?) two foundational pieces of the Cup-run team would be gone, three if Danault leaves ... that could/would have made a rebuild (or a deep-dive retool) a viable option.

 

Yes, if Seattle had taken Price then we would be talking rebuild. Now, not so much as MB won't have as much wiggle room with the cap. 

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6 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher next year. 

A full year of Caufield plus whoever we get in the offseason can make us better than last season. 

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Plus we saw what happens when the Habs buy in to DD’s system. We have a training camp and full season. Team should perform closer to potential because of that too - depending on how DD adjusts to opposition adjustments. 

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2 hours ago, Dalhabs said:

A full year of Caufield plus whoever we get in the offseason can make us better than last season. 

The key will be how they replace Weber's minutes, and Price for however much of the season he misses ... and (IMO) whether they can add a top 4 puck-moving defenceman, which IMO is needed, for the regular season at least

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42 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

The key will be how they replace Weber's minutes, and Price for however much of the season he misses ... and (IMO) whether they can add a top 4 puck-moving defenceman, which IMO is needed, for the regular season at least

 

We know Allen can tide us over in Price's absence - but if Price is out for most of the season, that will be another story, because Allen has proven, and accepted, that he is not a #1 over a full year.

 

Assuming Price is only out for a limited period, the real key will be replacing Weber. As I've said, I think that represents an opportunity to improve the team significantly - provided we can either bag a legitimate #1 D-man (which Weber has not been for a while) or else add a couple of effective puck-movers back there. That will determine, more than anything else, whether we make the playoffs, IMHO.

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4 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

Can we close this thread since it was predicated on losing Price in the expansion draft? There is no rebuild right now.

No, because Price going anywhere wasnt really in doubt to begin with.

But, with so many forwards who could be gone and Weber gone and if a trade or wo happens, may still apply.

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8 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

Can we close this thread since it was predicated on losing Price in the expansion draft? There is no rebuild right now.


I wouldn’t be surprised if Doctors find that Price needs extensive work done and will be out longer than first thought. 
 

Perhaps playoff time

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21 minutes ago, DON said:

No, because Price going anywhere wasnt really in doubt to begin with.

But, with so many forwards who could be gone and Weber gone and if a trade or wo happens, may still apply.

 

The whole premise of a rebuild was predicated on Price either being gone or too injured to play next season. As long as Price is a part of the team, they are not going to rebuild. 

Edited by Fanpuck33
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43 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


I wouldn’t be surprised if Doctors find that Price needs extensive work done and will be out longer than first thought. 
 

Perhaps playoff time

Assuming extensive surgery on hip and/or knee is performed soon, if it were to require an 8 month recovery (i.e., full season) I would be concerned that it sounds like a potentially career ending injury for a soon to be 34 year-old goaltender.

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5 hours ago, GHT120 said:

Assuming extensive surgery on hip and/or knee is performed soon, if it were to require an 8 month recovery (i.e., full season) I would be concerned that it sounds like a potentially career ending injury for a soon to be 34 year-old goaltender.

Based on today's quotes, he should be back somewhere between September and November.

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15 minutes ago, tomh009 said:
6 hours ago, GHT120 said:
7 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Doctors find that Price needs extensive work done and will be out longer than first thought. 
Perhaps playoff time

Assuming extensive surgery on hip and/or knee is performed soon, if it were to require an 8 month recovery (i.e., full season) I would be concerned that it sounds like a potentially career ending injury for a soon to be 34 year-old goaltender.

Based on today's quotes, he should be back somewhere between September and November.

Wasn't predicting, just responding to the above-cited post suggesting that it could be a full-season scenario ... think TBL Kucherov-ing LTIR has inspired some perhaps tongue-in-cheek thoughts.

Although MB did leave the door open a crack to the possibility of something more serious than surgery that he expects to require a 6-8 week recovery ... but nothing in that possibility suggested a full season.

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Now that we know that Price isn't going to Seattle and that he was operated on yesterday in NYC, I don'T believe the Habs will be rebuilding anytime soon. Price is expected back in 10-12 weeks, which means he'll be good to go at the beginning of the season!

The Loss of Weber will hurt alot, but depending on what Bergevin can accomplish in the off season, we might end up with a better team!  Danault is still up in the air. Armia might come back and so might Perry.

 

Quote

Plus we saw what happens when the Habs buy in to DD’s system. We have a training camp and full season. Team should perform closer to potential because of that too

 

true! Let's not forget that the Habs had a horrible schedule for the second half of the season (25 games in 42 days, or something like that)  We don't realize just how hard that must have been!  We'll be in a tougher division next year, but D.D. will have had a full training camp to get his system in place!

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Weber being out of the picture changes the equation fundamentally, such that rebuilding is folly IMHO. Price and Petry are old, but the rest of the core is either young or in its prime years. If you rebuild with a team with that profile, then the hell won’t you be rebuilding - ? 

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