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What goes around comes around Carolina pay back Kotkaniemi offer sheet


Habsfan89

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3 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

 I just don't see a 2nd liner when I look at Christian Dvorak. A solid two-way forward with an apparent ceiling of 45 points screams third liner to me. A #2 center has to at the very least put up 50 points consistently.

KK has an unknown ceiling right now. I'm not sure I would trade him straight across for Dvorak.  I think, barring an Eichel deal, MB should match the KK offer and work to to extend him before the end of the season. 

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9 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

No I Ment before matching I know if he match you can't trade for a year. But I Ment during the 7 day period that they get.

Still no.

 

From the CBA:

Once an Offer Sheet for a Restricted Free Agent has been received by the Prior Club, the Prior Club may not Trade or otherwise Assign its Right of First Refusal for such Restricted Free Agent.

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9 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

KK has an unknown ceiling right now. I'm not sure I would trade him straight across for Dvorak.  I think, barring an Eichel deal, MB should match the KK offer and work to to extend him before the end of the season. 

I proposed a way to achieve this a few posts back (maybe pages ago) but i think it might still be too much :(

(edit) I saw somewhere Suzuki said he understands KK for the sign bcuz its "life changing money" so if MB real high on KK I think 50 mil overall money will get him to stay

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38 minutes ago, huzer said:

Still no.

 

From the CBA:

Once an Offer Sheet for a Restricted Free Agent has been received by the Prior Club, the Prior Club may not Trade or otherwise Assign its Right of First Refusal for such Restricted Free Agent.

Oh okay would of made things interesting if they could lol . 

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1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

KK has an unknown ceiling right now. I'm not sure I would trade him straight across for Dvorak.  I think, barring an Eichel deal, MB should match the KK offer and work to to extend him before the end of the season. 

 

 I tend to agree. We have no idea how high KK's ceiling is as he just turned 21. That makes this decision difficult. Dvorak is 25 and his best year is 38 points although he was trending a little higher last year.  Surely KK will do better than 38 points. The fact that he was able to score in the playoffs when goals are tougher to come by gives me hope.  I think we either match or if we don't just keep the picks, over paying for Dvorak is my least favourite option. 

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I think you have to match. There are no other attractive options out there and you can't let a 21 year old 3rd overall pick who has shown he will be at worst a decent player walk for a few picks that are likely to not get 100 games in the league.  The contract sucks but we'll figure it out.

 

We finally have some young depth at center and we all know how hard it is to find quality at that position. 

 

The real screw up was bergy being too cheap signing Aho.

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2 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

I just don't see a 2nd liner when I look at Christian Dvorak. A solid two-way forward with an apparent ceiling of 45 points screams third liner to me. A #2 center has to at the very least put up 50 points consistently.

 

In this era, a 45-point player is definitely a second liner in terms of offensive production.

 

Back in 2018-19 (the last 82-game season), there were 121 forwards with 45 points (142 with 40 if you want to lower the threshold).  There were 31 teams so on average, Dvorak in that range would be fourth or fifth on most teams.  That's second line production and the fact that he's decent defensively means he's not being sheltered at 5-on-5 so he'll land there in ATOI as well.  At 50 points, there were only 99 forwards meaning a 50-point guy is effectively a low-end front-line guy or an elite second-line producer.  It's a little simplistic of a breakdown but it works.

 

Dvorak is not Lars Eller 2.0.  Eller is the prototypical capable two-way 3C that can move up if needed when injuries strike that hovers around 30 points.  Dvorak is a bit above that level.  And if (granted, a big if) getting out of Arizona where they were atrocious offensively helps unlock some offensive upside, he could be a bit better still.  Late first-rounders typically aren't yielding 50-plus-point players; the odds of that are quite low which is why teams were offering one for Dvorak two months ago and why Arizona wasn't taking it. 

 

Clearly I'm in the minority here but to me, the two Carolina picks from a straight value standpoint (not comparing to what could be lost with Kotkaniemi which is a whole other factor in itself) is close to fair market value for Dvorak if not a little on the low side.  

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20 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

In this era, a 45-point player is definitely a second liner in terms of offensive production.

 

Back in 2018-19 (the last 82-game season), there were 121 forwards with 45 points (142 with 40 if you want to lower the threshold).  There were 31 teams so on average, Dvorak in that range would be fourth or fifth on most teams.  That's second line production and the fact that he's decent defensively means he's not being sheltered at 5-on-5 so he'll land there in ATOI as well.  At 50 points, there were only 99 forwards meaning a 50-point guy is effectively a low-end front-line guy or an elite second-line producer.  It's a little simplistic of a breakdown but it works.

 

Dvorak is not Lars Eller 2.0.  Eller is the prototypical capable two-way 3C that can move up if needed when injuries strike that hovers around 30 points.  Dvorak is a bit above that level.  And if (granted, a big if) getting out of Arizona where they were atrocious offensively helps unlock some offensive upside, he could be a bit better still.  Late first-rounders typically aren't yielding 50-plus-point players; the odds of that are quite low which is why teams were offering one for Dvorak two months ago and why Arizona wasn't taking it. 

 

Clearly I'm in the minority here but to me, the two Carolina picks from a straight value standpoint (not comparing to what could be lost with Kotkaniemi which is a whole other factor in itself) is close to fair market value for Dvorak if not a little on the low side.  

 

Dvorak is certainly a decent player and you are giving him the benefit of the doubt by calling him a 45 point player as that is prorating his best season which was  last year.  He would certainly not be a top tier 2nd line centre and I think I would rather gamble on KK becoming a top tier centre than having just an average 2nd line center. 

 

Of course it's more complicated than that with the salary cap and none of us have a crystal ball so we don't what KK will turn out to be. We will find out in a few days what MB and his team think of KK's top end potential. 

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58 minutes ago, sim.on said:

I think you have to match. There are no other attractive options out there and you can't let a 21 year old 3rd overall pick who has shown he will be at worst a decent player walk for a few picks that are likely to not get 100 games in the league.  The contract sucks but we'll figure it out.

 

We finally have some young depth at center and we all know how hard it is to find quality at that position. 

 

The real screw up was bergy being too cheap signing Aho.

No, the real screw up was letting Danault walk before signing KK

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52 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

No, the real screw up was letting Danault walk before signing KK

 

You have a point there.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think Dvorak could well be an acceptable consolation prize for losing KK. Brian is persuasive that the guy is a serviceable 2nd-line C entering his prime. He is a “young veteran” who will provide Suzuki with a degree of insulation.

 

But I say that as something of a KK skeptic. If we see KK as a future 60-point+ big, strong C, then certainly we should gamble and match Carolina’s offer.

 

Were I MB, beyond aggressively exploring the trade market, the first thing I would have done would be to have key people in the organization - coaches, pro scouts, advanced stats guys, maybe even Weber as team captain - prepare a comprehensive assessment of KK: his progression from day one, his profile right now, and in their expert estimate, his likely ceiling. Get absolutely as much input from as many knowledgeable voices as I can, then make the call.

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15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

You have a point there.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think Dvorak could well be an acceptable consolation prize for losing KK. Brian is persuasive that the guy is a serviceable 2nd-line C entering his prime. He is a “young veteran” who will provide Suzuki with a degree of insulation.

 

But I say that as something of a KK skeptic. If we see KK as a future 60-point+ big, strong C, then certainly we should gamble and match Carolina’s offer.

 

Were I MB, beyond aggressively exploring the trade market, the first thing I would have done would be to have key people in the organization - coaches, pro scouts, advanced stats guys, maybe even Weber as team captain - prepare a comprehensive assessment of KK: his progression from day one, his profile right now, and in their expert estimate, his likely ceiling. Get absolutely as much input from as many knowledgeable voices as I can, then make the call.

 

If we are going to be a cup contender we need more than serviceable.  And it also depends what you have to give up. I would rather gamble on KK's upside at 6.1M than Dvorak at 4.5M  

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

No, the real screw up was letting Danault walk before signing KK

 

I can't fault Bergevin for not having Kotkaniemi signed before the start of free agency.  Look at the other high first-rounders up for new contracts from that class:

 

1-Rasmus Dahlin - still unsigned

2-Andrei Svechnikov - just signed last week

4-Brady Tkachuk - still unsigned

7-Quinn Hughes - still unsigned

 

The way the system works, with minimal leverage beyond the offer sheet, the only thing the players can do is not sign and hope the offer eventually goes up.  That's how it's done now, delay instead of signing quickly.  I'll say this - the odds are quite high that a year from now, Suzuki will be in the same situation regardless of whether it's Bergevin or someone else handing out the contract.

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1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Dvorak is certainly a decent player and you are giving him the benefit of the doubt by calling him a 45 point player as that is prorating his best season which was  last year.  He would certainly not be a top tier 2nd line centre and I think I would rather gamble on KK becoming a top tier centre than having just an average 2nd line center. 

 

Of course it's more complicated than that with the salary cap and none of us have a crystal ball so we don't what KK will turn out to be. We will find out in a few days what MB and his team think of KK's top end potential. 

 

That's why I put the range in as well, 40-50.  Even at 40, he's a low-end second liner.  He's probably not going to be a top-tier 2C unless he has that big offensive explosion elsewhere.

 

You hit the nail on the head with the dilemma of the two if it indeed comes to that.  Kotkaniemi has the higher ceiling but the lower certainty.  Dvorak has the lower ceiling but the higher certainty in that he's already a second liner with ideally a bit of room for improvement still.  Is it worth parting with the higher ceiling player for the more proven option and a bit of cap flexibility or take the higher hit next year (and possibly beyond if he was to go year-to-year) for the extra upside?  It's not an easy question at all.

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5 hours ago, dlbalr said:

If you have the time to look at your options, use it.  I imagine at this point, they know whether or not they're willing to match but they don't have to announce that publicly in case it affects any trade talks.  The vote of confidence from Montreal would simply be them matching, not how quickly the press release comes out saying they're matching. 

 

To announce they're matching right away without thoroughly investigating their options would be a dereliction of duty on Bergevin's part.  He's been forced into this situation so the least he can do is dig deep on what's out there; news leaking that says they're leaning one way or the other would be detrimental let alone an announcement of intention.

Apologies ... I was not precise ... the context for the post was that MB et al decided very shortly after the offer sheet was signed that they absolutely would match ... announcing that, formally or informally, would not seem to have any negative effect on other trade talks looking to fill out the middle 6 centre position, in fact it would reduce the pressure other teams could exert as there would only be one empty slot, not two ... if there truly is/was any doubt then they obviously have to look into every angle.

 

I disagree about the vote of confidence ... no matter how decisively a husband/boyfriend says "yes, I love you", if there is any significant hesitation before the answer the answer is never as convincing ... but then we are all speculating when it comes to this aspect ... it likely varies from case to case as it depends on the players' unique personality and circumstances.

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3 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

In this era, a 45-point player is definitely a second liner in terms of offensive production.

 

Back in 2018-19 (the last 82-game season), there were 121 forwards with 45 points (142 with 40 if you want to lower the threshold).  There were 31 teams so on average, Dvorak in that range would be fourth or fifth on most teams.  That's second line production and the fact that he's decent defensively means he's not being sheltered at 5-on-5 so he'll land there in ATOI as well.  At 50 points, there were only 99 forwards meaning a 50-point guy is effectively a low-end front-line guy or an elite second-line producer.  It's a little simplistic of a breakdown but it works.

 

Dvorak is not Lars Eller 2.0.  Eller is the prototypical capable two-way 3C that can move up if needed when injuries strike that hovers around 30 points.  Dvorak is a bit above that level.  And if (granted, a big if) getting out of Arizona where they were atrocious offensively helps unlock some offensive upside, he could be a bit better still.  Late first-rounders typically aren't yielding 50-plus-point players; the odds of that are quite low which is why teams were offering one for Dvorak two months ago and why Arizona wasn't taking it. 

 

Clearly I'm in the minority here but to me, the two Carolina picks from a straight value standpoint (not comparing to what could be lost with Kotkaniemi which is a whole other factor in itself) is close to fair market value for Dvorak if not a little on the low side.  

 

Ok, let's put it this way - he's not a 2nd line center on a team with playoff aspirations.

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38 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

Ok, let's put it this way - he's not a 2nd line center on a team with playoff aspirations.

 

Boston wanted him for their second line at the draft and they have playoff aspirations.  Most of the teams speculated to have wanted him are playoff-bound teams.  He can be a serviceable 2C on a playoff-calibre team in my opinion based on my expectation that he'd improve offensively getting out of Arizona that would make him more of a 'true' 2C.

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Apologies ... I was not precise ... the context for the post was that MB et al decided very shortly after the offer sheet was signed that they absolutely would match ... announcing that, formally or informally, would not seem to have any negative effect on other trade talks looking to fill out the middle 6 centre position, in fact it would reduce the pressure other teams could exert as there would only be one empty slot, not two ... if there truly is/was any doubt then they obviously have to look into every angle.

 

I disagree about the vote of confidence ... no matter how decisively a husband/boyfriend says "yes, I love you", if there is any significant hesitation before the answer the answer is never as convincing ... but then we are all speculating when it comes to this aspect ... it likely varies from case to case as it depends on the players' unique personality and circumstances.

I like drama and the odd tear jerker ... but the current situation is neither

 

Kk signed an over generous offer

 

the Habs are doing their due diligence on their business decision

 

:popcorn: when does training camp start ? :popcorn: 

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Hmm, has anyone else been thinking about what the $20 signing bonus is all about?

 

At 1st, I wondered if that was the amount of playoffs games kk played in their Cup run, but no he played 19.  KK did have 20 pts last year, however; Aho's jersey number happens to be 20.  The bonus is likely about the latter.  

 

Ironically, it seems like nobody saw this coming, and in hindsight, it was probably 1 of the easiest more foreseeable things to have predicted.  i.e. MB tried to steal 1 of the Cannes top players; then several years later the Cannes tried to trade for KK, then they did an RFA offer sheet to steal him. 

 

Thats the major difference between any other unsigned RFA vs kk.  If a team is interested in 1 of your RFA's, as a GM you need to up your offer and get him signed ASAP.  This is especially true if you had previously tried to poach a player from the team that is interested in your RFA.  Not to mention, it was known that the Habs lost a C through UFA, and it was obvious that losing kk would be a major blow to the Habs. 

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9 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Hmm, has anyone else been thinking about what the $20 signing bonus is all about?

 

At 1st, I wondered if that was the amount of playoffs games kk played in their Cup run, but no he played 19.  KK did have 20 pts last year, however; Aho's jersey number happens to be 20.  The bonus is likely about the latter.  

 

Ironically, it seems like nobody saw this coming, and in hindsight, it was probably 1 of the easiest more foreseeable things to have predicted.  i.e. MB tried to steal 1 of the Cannes top players; then several years later the Cannes tried to trade for KK, then they did an RFA offer sheet to steal him. 

 

Thats the major difference between any other unsigned RFA vs kk.  If a team is interested in 1 of your RFA's, as a GM you need to up your offer and get him signed ASAP.  This is especially true if you had previously tried to poach a player from the team that is interested in your RFA.  Not to mention, it was known that the Habs lost a C through UFA, and it was obvious that losing kk would be a major blow to the Habs. 

Others and me already posted the reference to Aho’s number

 

it was reported by the media too

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10 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Thats the major difference between any other unsigned RFA vs kk.  If a team is interested in 1 of your RFA's, as a GM you need to up your offer and get him signed ASAP.

Get him signed -- at any cost? We don't know those negotiations, we don't know how much money or term Bergevin offered, or what Kotkaniemi or his agent asked for. We can be confident Bergevin was trying to get him signed (Poehling got signed a few weeks ago) but for whatever reason they had not got to an agreement yet.

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Within the first 12 months of Aho's sheet,  the signing bonus were like 11M$ and 9M$  for 20M$ total.


I believe the 20$ to KK  is related to that as well.

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3 minutes ago, JoeLassister said:

Within the first 12 months of Aho's sheet,  the signing bonus were like 11M$ and 9M$  for 20M$ total.


I believe the 20$ to KK  is related to that as well.

 

Of course, just as the French-language announcement was a deliberate shot at the Habs. This is sheer pettiness by Carolina, let’s not kid ourselves.

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2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Get him signed -- at any cost? We don't know those negotiations, we don't know how much money or term Bergevin offered, or what Kotkaniemi or his agent asked for. We can be confident Bergevin was trying to get him signed (Poehling got signed a few weeks ago) but for whatever reason they had not got to an agreement yet.

Agree and disagree ... not at any cost ... but I think MB thought he had all the leverage and was trying to squeeze KK ...  UNLESS ... Carolina had told KK's agent that the might offer sheet KK later in the summer ... tampering(?), but no risk unless Carolina or the agent admit it.

 

Poehling had no leverage, so it wasn't all that tough a deal.

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16 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Agree and disagree ... not at any cost ... but I think MB thought he had all the leverage and was trying to squeeze KK ...  UNLESS ... Carolina had told KK's agent that the might offer sheet KK later in the summer ... tampering(?), but no risk unless Carolina or the agent admit it.

 

That's not necessarily tampering; all teams were permitted to speak to Kotkaniemi and his camp at the start of free agency.  As long as it was done after that time, it's perfectly legal.

 

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