GDT Oct 21 2021 Habs vs Kotkaniemi (and his team) 7:00pm

[TurdBurglar]

10 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Unless that prospect is Caufield, Buffalo would hang the phone up laughing.  There's no way your proposal would be enough for the Sabres to move him in the division - they are in no rush to trade him and can afford to wait this out - and the cap consequences for Montreal in such a move would be massive.  They can't afford to take on money at all for next season let alone more than $5 million.  (And for this year, they'd be in big trouble if Eichel was to play a single game.)

I think if Eichel gets traded, everyone is going to be surprised with the return.  I do agree Buffalo’s ask would start with Suzuki or Caufield, but I’ve been seeing more and more that the teams interested are offering conditionals.  These are teams that are ok with the disc replacement, but the pieces going the other way would be conditioned on games played.

 

The Dvorak + another top-6 or a Norlinder isn’t far fetched when it would have 2-3 conditional 1st/2nd round picks on games played the next 2-3 years.  
 

I do believe Montreal could get it done without Suzuki or Caufield attached, but it comes down to if they would accept the surgery and is that much uncertainty worth the risk?

[dlbalr]

12 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

I think if Eichel gets traded, everyone is going to be surprised with the return.  I do agree Buffalo’s ask would start with Suzuki or Caufield, but I’ve been seeing more and more that the teams interested are offering conditionals.  These are teams that are ok with the disc replacement, but the pieces going the other way would be conditioned on games played.

 

The Dvorak + another top-6 or a Norlinder isn’t far fetched when it would have 2-3 conditional 1st/2nd round picks on games played the next 2-3 years.  
 

I do believe Montreal could get it done without Suzuki or Caufield attached, but it comes down to if they would accept the surgery and is that much uncertainty worth the risk?

 

Some assets are going to be conditional but those will be the secondary assets, not the primaries.  Unless they get a top young player or top prospect, they're going to keep waiting it out.  Their deadline is the start of the 2022-23 calendar year when his trade protection kicks in (mid-July) and with this being a planned tank year for them, they don't care about having him sit on IR all year.

 

And again, even if an offer centred around Dvorak as a primary piece going the other way, it still blows up Montreal's cap for next season.  It would put them just under $90 million to 14 players.  Even with an LTIR'ed Weber, they're already basically at next year's cap ($82.5M) with more than a third of the roster still to be signed.  At a minimum, that would cost another ~6M or so and that would mean Romanov or anyone else worth more than the minimum would be gone.  They have to match money on trades and at some point send more money out; buffalo has unequivocally stated that under no circumstance will they retain anything on Eichel's contract, by the way.  He may go for less than what the Sabres are asking - he probably will - but it won't be a trade with Montreal.

[GHT120]

13 hours ago, PMAC said:

Is it too early for a  Pain for Shane,  campaign? 

A first step would be trading trading for Eichel, given the cap moves that would have to be associated

[GHT120]

14 hours ago, dlbalr said:

What good does Eichel do to fix this right now?  He still has to have surgery and will miss a big chunk of the season at a minimum.

Given the cap manouvers necessary, a step towards Mr. Right ?

 

Wright, Shane Wright

 

But not a deal that I expect Molson would allow a pending free agent Bergevin to make.

 

 

 

 

[GHT120]

30 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Some assets are going to be conditional but those will be the secondary assets, not the primaries.  Unless they get a top young player or top prospect, they're going to keep waiting it out.  Their deadline is the start of the 2022-23 calendar year when his trade protection kicks in (mid-July) and with this being a planned tank year for them, they don't care about having him sit on IR all year.

 

And again, even if an offer centred around Dvorak as a primary piece going the other way, it still blows up Montreal's cap for next season.  It would put them just under $90 million to 14 players.  Even with an LTIR'ed Weber, they're already basically at next year's cap ($82.5M) with more than a third of the roster still to be signed.  At a minimum, that would cost another ~6M or so and that would mean Romanov or anyone else worth more than the minimum would be gone.  They have to match money on trades and at some point send more money out; buffalo has unequivocally stated that under no circumstance will they retain anything on Eichel's contract, by the way.  He may go for less than what the Sabres are asking - he probably will - but it won't be a trade with Montreal.

Only hope cap-wise would be that Buffalo would be willing to accept $10+ million in roster players as PART of the deal ... perhaps with a view to flipping them for other assists

[alfredoh2009]

32 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Some assets are going to be conditional but those will be the secondary assets, not the primaries.  Unless they get a top young player or top prospect, they're going to keep waiting it out.  Their deadline is the start of the 2022-23 calendar year when his trade protection kicks in (mid-July) and with this being a planned tank year for them, they don't care about having him sit on IR all year.

 

And again, even if an offer centred around Dvorak as a primary piece going the other way, it still blows up Montreal's cap for next season.  It would put them just under $90 million to 14 players.  Even with an LTIR'ed Weber, they're already basically at next year's cap ($82.5M) with more than a third of the roster still to be signed.  At a minimum, that would cost another ~6M or so and that would mean Romanov or anyone else worth more than the minimum would be gone.  They have to match money on trades and at some point send more money out; buffalo has unequivocally stated that under no circumstance will they retain anything on Eichel's contract, by the way.  He may go for less than what the Sabres are asking - he probably will - but it won't be a trade with Montreal.

would Weber's LTIR interest teams reach the minimum salary cap floor?

 

Or would it help teams near the cap gain some relief?

 

If the Habs find out at the trade deadline, I would move Weber's LTIR to a team that may use it to boost its lineup

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Some assets are going to be conditional but those will be the secondary assets, not the primaries.  Unless they get a top young player or top prospect, they're going to keep waiting it out.  Their deadline is the start of the 2022-23 calendar year when his trade protection kicks in (mid-July) and with this being a planned tank year for them, they don't care about having him sit on IR all year.

 

And again, even if an offer centred around Dvorak as a primary piece going the other way, it still blows up Montreal's cap for next season.  It would put them just under $90 million to 14 players.  Even with an LTIR'ed Weber, they're already basically at next year's cap ($82.5M) with more than a third of the roster still to be signed.  At a minimum, that would cost another ~6M or so and that would mean Romanov or anyone else worth more than the minimum would be gone.  They have to match money on trades and at some point send more money out; buffalo has unequivocally stated that under no circumstance will they retain anything on Eichel's contract, by the way.  He may go for less than what the Sabres are asking - he probably will - but it won't be a trade with Montreal.

If insurance is covering Weber, couldn’t they just move a weber to a team looking to get to the floor next season?

I don’t see Eichel playing this season, given that he hasn’t had surgery yet.

[TurdBurglar]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Some assets are going to be conditional but those will be the secondary assets, not the primaries.  Unless they get a top young player or top prospect, they're going to keep waiting it out.  Their deadline is the start of the 2022-23 calendar year when his trade protection kicks in (mid-July) and with this being a planned tank year for them, they don't care about having him sit on IR all year.

 

And again, even if an offer centred around Dvorak as a primary piece going the other way, it still blows up Montreal's cap for next season.  It would put them just under $90 million to 14 players.  Even with an LTIR'ed Weber, they're already basically at next year's cap ($82.5M) with more than a third of the roster still to be signed.  At a minimum, that would cost another ~6M or so and that would mean Romanov or anyone else worth more than the minimum would be gone.  They have to match money on trades and at some point send more money out; buffalo has unequivocally stated that under no circumstance will they retain anything on Eichel's contract, by the way.  He may go for less than what the Sabres are asking - he probably will - but it won't be a trade with Montreal.

An easy solution to the cap issue is by the throwning in one of Gallagher, Anderson or Drouin.

 

As for when Eichel’s trade protection kicks in, it’s worse for the Sabres.  Any team to get Eichel will know he isn’t playing until next season.  That team can opt to accept the trade protection clause or not.  Teams can also hold out until later, because Eichel won’t play, and cause more pressure on Buffalo.  There will also be the value of Buffalo will get players for this season, when the other team will not.  The longer the trade takes, the longer until the surgery, the longer until Eichel returns, which in turn continues to lower his value.

 

I understand Eichel, healthy, is a big fish capable of a huge return.  This situation, with an injured player with future time lost, and an experimental surgery for the NHL, tanks his value significantly.  There’s a chance he doesn’t ever play again, there’s a chance he becomes injury prone due to the surgery, more so then any other surgery NHL players get.  All of these factors play into his value, it’s not a simple as he’s Jack Eichel.

[alfredoh2009]

8 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

An easy solution to the cap issue is by the throwning in one of Gallagher, Anderson or Drouin.

 

As for when Eichel’s trade protection kicks in, it’s worse for the Sabres.  Any team to get Eichel will know he isn’t playing until next season.  That team can opt to accept the trade protection clause or not.  Teams can also hold out until later, because Eichel won’t play, and cause more pressure on Buffalo.  There will also be the value of Buffalo will get players for this season, when the other team will not.  The longer the trade takes, the longer until the surgery, the longer until Eichel returns, which in turn continues to lower his value.

 

I understand Eichel, healthy, is a big fish capable of a huge return.  This situation, with an injured player with future time lost, and an experimental surgery for the NHL, tanks his value significantly.  There’s a chance he doesn’t ever play again, there’s a chance he becomes injury prone due to the surgery, more so then any other surgery NHL players get.  All of these factors play into his value, it’s not a simple as he’s Jack Eichel.

That is why I would hope for something like this:

Weber + Byron (salary match) + Mailloux +  top-10 protected 1st in 2023 + conditional 2nd and 3rd if chirurgie is successful for Eichel

[Neech]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

That is why I would hope for something like this:

Weber + Byron (salary match) + Mailloux +  top-10 protected 1st in 2023 + conditional 2nd and 3rd if chirurgie is successful for Eichel

You're going to have to give up something good to get Eichel, not a salary dump and some middling picks.  If the Habs don't offer CC or Suzuki plus some top picks and salary filler, the Sabres are hanging up the phone. 

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, Neech said:

You're going to have to give up something good to get Eichel, not a salary dump and some middling picks.  If the Habs don't offer CC or Suzuki plus some top picks and salary filler, the Sabres are hanging up the phone. 

 

Taking on Eichel is as risky as putting hopes on a Weber return

 

the midding picks, salary dump and one decent (hockey wise) 1st round defenseman is what I value Eichel at

[DON]

27 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

Taking on Eichel is as risky as putting hopes on a Weber return

 

the midding picks, salary dump and one decent (hockey wise) 1st round defenseman is what I value Eichel at

Sorry, appreciate the effort but not even close to what would be needed.

Suzuki + Romanov or Guhle + 1st round pick, maybe would be starting point.

 

[GHT120]

54 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Taking on Eichel is as risky as putting hopes on a Weber return

 

the midding picks, salary dump and one decent (hockey wise) 1st round defenseman is what I value Eichel at

 

I totally understand the concern about Eichel's health ... spinal fusion is the better known option for surgery but it reduces the range of motion in the neck ... the disc replacement might be better in terms of returning Eichel to near-normal but it is, at least for the NHL, an unknown procedure ... any team trading for him will need to be very well informed about Eichel's present health and the surgical options ... hence, as dlbair pointed out, the likelihood that a good chunk of the return the Sabres receive will be conditional picks (perhaps a mix of games played and offensive production).

 

But with Weber and Byron (total $11.25714) making slightly more than Eichel ($10M), there is no real salary dump ... at least until Byrons's $3.4M deal runs out in the summer of 2023, which is not that much of a dump ... Weber's $7.8M+ cap hit runs out the same year as Eichel's contract ... there absolutely are real salary savings , between Weber's decreasing salary and any insurance coverage ... but not certain that is Terry Pegula's standard for the trade.

[GHT120]

49 minutes ago, DON said:

Sorry, appreciate the effort but not even close to what would be needed.

Suzuki + Romanov or Guhle + 1st round pick, maybe would be starting point.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... how badly do the Sabres want to get rid of the disgruntled player and the health risk ... how willing are other teams to "pay" for a disgruntled player and health risk, despite his obvious talent.

[TurdBurglar]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Sorry, appreciate the effort but not even close to what would be needed.

Suzuki + Romanov or Guhle + 1st round pick, maybe would be starting point.

 

For a healthy, ready to play Eichel, I completely agree.  For this situation, that’s the equivalent of the rumoured Lecavalier for Price, Subban, Pacioretty and a 1st.  It’s an insane return, to which Buffalo would take in a heartbeat.  There’s a reason he hasn’t been traded yet.  

Buffalo wants a return like that, nobody will offer more than cap exchanges with the primary pieces being all conditional.  Which is all Eichel is currently worth.

[dlbalr]

5 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

would Weber's LTIR interest teams reach the minimum salary cap floor?

 

Or would it help teams near the cap gain some relief?

 

If the Habs find out at the trade deadline, I would move Weber's LTIR to a team that may use it to boost its lineup

 

Everyone's over the floor so that's not a concern.  In order to acquire Weber, a team would need to be $7.857M under the cap before making the move which basically gets rid of a lot of suitors. 

 

If a team wants to expand their existing LTIR pool (they have some room and send some money back to cover the difference), it's an option.  But Montreal has recapture to consider through the end of 2022-23 - that's the time to move him, not now.

 

5 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

An easy solution to the cap issue is by the throwning in one of Gallagher, Anderson or Drouin.

 

As for when Eichel’s trade protection kicks in, it’s worse for the Sabres.  Any team to get Eichel will know he isn’t playing until next season.  That team can opt to accept the trade protection clause or not.  Teams can also hold out until later, because Eichel won’t play, and cause more pressure on Buffalo.  There will also be the value of Buffalo will get players for this season, when the other team will not.  The longer the trade takes, the longer until the surgery, the longer until Eichel returns, which in turn continues to lower his value.

 

I understand Eichel, healthy, is a big fish capable of a huge return.  This situation, with an injured player with future time lost, and an experimental surgery for the NHL, tanks his value significantly.  There’s a chance he doesn’t ever play again, there’s a chance he becomes injury prone due to the surgery, more so then any other surgery NHL players get.  All of these factors play into his value, it’s not a simple as he’s Jack Eichel.

 

Gallagher won't waive his NMC, Drouin's deal isn't long enough to offset Eichel, so that'd be Anderson.  Sure, that'd cover the money element.

 

There's no more ability for an acquiring team to not absorb a pending trade protection clause, that was removed in the CBA.  It's coming with him no matter what.  Buffalo doesn't care about value this season and getting players to help now - they're trying to tank.  There's no increased benefit to them to make the move now for less than they might get by dragging it out.  We're only a few weeks away from him being probably ruled out for the season which negates that pressure.  Whoever gets him is planning for 2022-23.  That's the case whether he's moved next month or in June; his value shouldn't change.  The narrative is that Buffalo's under the gun to get this done but I think it's the exact opposite.

 

4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

That is why I would hope for something like this:

Weber + Byron (salary match) + Mailloux +  top-10 protected 1st in 2023 + conditional 2nd and 3rd if chirurgie is successful for Eichel

 

That doesn't solve the problem though as they lose the LTIR cushion.  They'd be at about $83M in spending for 2022-23 with 12 players under contract.  How are they fitting the other 8-11 players in when they're already over?  They need to match money with healthy players and then use Weber's cushion to try to fill out the roster.

[Sir_Boagalott]

21 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... how badly do the Sabres want to get rid of the disgruntled player and the health risk ... how willing are other teams to "pay" for a disgruntled player and health risk, despite his obvious talent.

 

The Eichel conundrum is an incredibly unfortunate situation for him personally, along with Buffalo and any would be team that trades for him.   Buffalo has royally screwed this entire situation right up and they still seem to be trying to trade a healthy Eichel, which all teams know he isn't.   The way that Buffalo is handling it there doesn't seem to be a fair way to trade him that will protect both teams involved.  

 

Ultimately, Eichel needs to get the operation and return for Buffalo and then prove he can still play - that is basically the only way that teams will know what they are getting - and be willing to give up decent assets to get him.  At the moment nobody knows if he can even play after the operation. 

 

There isnt enough detergent in the world for me to be interested in the level of risk that is involved with trading for him.   

[TurdBurglar]

26 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

There isnt enough detergent in the world for me to be interested in the level of risk that is involved with trading for him.   

This.

 

The fact he has a full no movement clause kicking in the start of free agency this year puts tremendous pressure on Buffalo now.  Once the NMC kicks in, he can veto any trade Buffalo makes.  Coupled with the fact that he can’t get the surgery until he is traded, makes his value decline daily.

 

Seattle didn’t want to pick up Price for free because of his uncertain health and contract, even though both guaranteed him to play again.  There’s an equal contract and far more uncertainty tied up with Eichel.  There is a legitimate chance he may never play again.  I’m not sure how anyone can think he still has tremendous value.  I understand Buffalo wants to pitch it that way, they will be losing a former superstar, something he may or may not ever be again.