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Nov 26, Habs at Sabres, 7 PM - Battle of the Bantamweights


tomh009
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34 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yep. The RDS guys ripped them a collective new one over the 2nd intermission. No accountability, they argued, the same mistakes game after game. Lazy backchecks on the shortie. Sad. DD is simply in over his head and the team has more or less given up. 

 

Yup. I am starting to think there is a chance they may not make the playoffs. 

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yep. The RDS guys ripped them a collective new one over the 2nd intermission. No accountability, they argued, the same mistakes game after game. Lazy backchecks on the shortie. Sad. DD is simply in over his head and the team has more or less given up. 

DD looks like the reincarnation of Jean Perron - only without the actual cup win.

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Fun with advanced stats:

Corsi: the total number of shot attempts (shots, missed shots, and blocked shots). It is also known as “SAT” or “Shot Attempts.”

CRel%: “Relative Corsi” (CF% Rel or SAT% Rel): Shows the relative effect of a player on the ice. A positive CF% Rel means that when the player is on the ice, the team’s CF% is higher than when the player is not on the ice.when that player is on-ice vs. when not

 

Against BUF, the Suzuki line played as bad as Joel Armia !!!

 

on the positive side, Romanov-Savard had a good night, as well as Dvorak's line (Anderson was in beast mode). The Evan's line had a good night too, except for Lehkonen who had a few of bad shifts.

 

image.png

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Yes, until we land the 4th pick and draft someone worthy of being a late first rounder. 

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All of 2 shots in the 2nd period, after getting 15 in the 1st period, can you explain that please?

 

Suzuki won 8 of 15 faceoffs 53%

Poehling 2 of 4

Dvorak as advertised 9 of 14 64%

Poor Evans 6 of 17 35%

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10 minutes ago, DON said:

All of 2 shots in the 2nd period, after getting 15 in the 1st period, can you explain that please?

 

That kind of thing happens fairly often in the NHL (maybe not quite in such an extreme way), and I think much of it has to do with coaching adjustments. That said, what I saw in the 2nd last night was a team that seemed to quit almost from puck-drop. Buffalo came out flying and it was as though the Habs just said, “oh well, we can’t match this, our goalie sucks, who cares.”

 

I hasten to add that I am NOT a guy who throws around accusations that players don’t care or don’t try. But that is what I am seeing now.

 

Back when the Habs were a decent organization, that sort of non-effort would get a coach fired. I guess Molson doesn’t feel like paying two coaches not to coach.

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12 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

It's a big 4 point game tomorrow night as the Pens hold the last wild card spot.  If the Habs win they get within 10 points, lose and it's 14. It's a big one!

I have to respect what is either (a) never-ending optimism, or (b) subtle[?] clever sarcasm ... the respect is there whichever it is.

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35 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... I hasten to add that I am NOT a guy who throws around accusations that players don’t care or don’t try. But that is what I am seeing now ...

 

I agree ... in most circumstances it is not that the players don't care but that they have lost confidence in themselves, their teammates and/or the coaches/systems ... any one of those is a problem, two is very serious and three is a disaster ... Sadly I fear the Habs are not yet at 3

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48 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

That kind of thing happens fairly often in the NHL (maybe not quite in such an extreme way), and I think much of it has to do with coaching adjustments. That said, what I saw in the 2nd last night was a team that seemed to quit almost from puck-drop. Buffalo came out flying and it was as though the Habs just said, “oh well, we can’t match this, our goalie sucks, who cares.”

 

I hasten to add that I am NOT a guy who throws around accusations that players don’t care or don’t try. But that is what I am seeing now.

Yeah. And yet it's not the goalie that sucks, he's constantly being thrown to the wolves. Montembeault is no elite goalie but he didn't lose this game.

 

Lehkonen-Evans-Gallagher won't give up, but the rest of the team ... ugh.

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17 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

... Lehkonen-Evans-Gallagher won't give up, but the rest of the team ... ugh.

But sadly they are legitimately a 3rd line ... two 3rd/4th liners and a 2nd liner average out to a 3rd line ( [3.5+3.5+2]/3=3 ... totally mythical math) ... they can only do so much

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21 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Yeah. And yet it's not the goalie that sucks, he's constantly being thrown to the wolves. Montembeault is no elite goalie but he didn't lose this game.

 

Lehkonen-Evans-Gallagher won't give up, but the rest of the team ... ugh.

 

Montembault has played decently in recent efforts, looking like a legitimate NHL G to me. I kind of like him and am beginning to think he has modest but meaningful potential. He is being put in an untenable position by his POS teammates, and it would be a real shame if teams end up just looking at his stat sheet and his career ends up fizzling out due to the Habs’ incompetence. This may be the likeliest outcome, however.

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5 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

But sadly they are legitimately a 3rd line ... two 3rd/4th liners and a 2nd liner average out to a 3rd line ( [3.5+3.5+2]/3=3 ... totally mythical math) ... they can only do so much

From a talent point of view you are correct. But what they are doing is leading by example. Sadly it takes a third line to do that at the moment.

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

I have to respect what is either (a) never-ending optimism, or (b) subtle[?] clever sarcasm ... the respect is there whichever it is.

 

I am just trying to have a little fun in what is shaping up to be a horrendous year. On the positive side, this year is making it clear that a rebuild is in order, I have felt that way for the last couple years. We over achieved in the playoffs last year,  it was fun to watch  and I give the team full credit for playing with a lot of heart but they weren't even close to being as good as Tampa. There is a lot of work to do. 

 

 I think it is pretty clear that we will be a seller at the deadline and likely before. Hopefully there will be enough teams that are desperate come the deadline and we can make some great long term deals.  There are a lot of teams that are legitimate contenders for the cup and I think there will be big demand for players like Chiarot.

 

If there is a "team tank" then I guess I am part of that team.  I am realistically looking at 3-5 years down for the Habs to be a contender again if the right deals are made and they develop their young players properly.   Cheers!

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15 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Are you the one jinxing the Habs? :blink:

 

Don't blame me...I've hardly watched them the past couple of weeks.  They are playing like s*!t all on their own, no jinx required.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Montembault has played decently in recent efforts, looking like a legitimate NHL G to me. I kind of like him and am beginning to think he has modest but meaningful potential. He is being put in an untenable position by his POS teammates, and it would be a real shame if teams end up just looking at his stat sheet and his career ends up fizzling out due to the Habs’ incompetence. This may be the likeliest outcome, however.

 

Montembeault has always been able to show those flashes - that's why he was Florida's backup to start the season just two years ago.  However, he has lapses in almost every game (a bad decision, a complete misread of a shot, etc) which is why he didn't finish that season as Florida's backup and was pegged as a minor leaguer since then.  The defence certainly isn't doing him any favours but I don't see NHL backup potential in him.  He could be like Dustin Tokarski as someone that bounces around as a #3 and is passable when called upon due to injury (and there's value in having someone like that in an organization) but I like him as a #3 much more than a #2.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Montembault has played decently in recent efforts, looking like a legitimate NHL G to me. I kind of like him and am beginning to think he has modest but meaningful potential. He is being put in an untenable position by his POS teammates, and it would be a real shame if teams end up just looking at his stat sheet and his career ends up fizzling out due to the Habs’ incompetence. This may be the likeliest outcome, however.

 

I agree he has looked decent ... but at 25, even with goalies taking longer to develop, I am not certain how much more potential there is ... if a couple of his worst rough edges can be softened (not expecting them to be fully fixed) he could have a career as a backup ... perhaps not with a Cup contender but somewhere long enough to build a nice nest-egg for himself and his family.

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Admittedly, I’ve taken a somewhat irrational shine to Montembault. For some reason I find myself pulling for the guy. Still, I do think he can become a decent backup. He reminds me in a vague and perhaps random way of Markstrom when he first arrived in Van (not that his ceiling is anywhere close, just that he seems to be a gangly guy who may be a late bloomer).

 

On a more serious note, here is a nice piece on why the team is as putrid as it is: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/ducharme-must-overhaul-system-canadiens-have-proven-incapable-of-executing/ The pull-quote comes from a scout: “The personnel has changed so much since last season that it’s probably fair to say the system in their end isn’t suited to who they have now,” said a scout we spoke with on Thursday. “They have a different makeup at forward and they can’t quite execute the up-ice pressure the way they did in the playoffs. The balance isn’t quite as strong to roll the lines and create that pressure, and then everything crumbles.

 

“The puck gets to their end and they just look too hesitant in there. They shouldn’t look as confused as they do at this stage of the season. They should go strictly man-on-man, make the game a bit simpler. They won’t be perfect there because they’re at a deficit with some of the losses on the roster since the playoffs, but they can build something from a simpler way of doing things in their own end.”

 

In other words, DD is clinging to zone defence system that worked in the playoffs and no longer suits the roster. 

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4 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... In other words, DD is clinging to zone defence system that worked in the playoffs and no longer suits the roster. 

 

Suspect it might have to remain some form of zone defence ... do the Habs D have the foot speed/agility, and defensive skills to play man-on-man

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5 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

On a more serious note, here is a nice piece on why the team is as putrid as it is: https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/ducharme-must-overhaul-system-canadiens-have-proven-incapable-of-executing/ The pull-quote comes from a scout: “The personnel has changed so much since last season that it’s probably fair to say the system in their end isn’t suited to who they have now,” said a scout we spoke with on Thursday. “They have a different makeup at forward and they can’t quite execute the up-ice pressure the way they did in the playoffs. The balance isn’t quite as strong to roll the lines and create that pressure, and then everything crumbles.

 

“The puck gets to their end and they just look too hesitant in there. They shouldn’t look as confused as they do at this stage of the season. They should go strictly man-on-man, make the game a bit simpler. They won’t be perfect there because they’re at a deficit with some of the losses on the roster since the playoffs, but they can build something from a simpler way of doing things in their own end.”

 

In other words, DD is clinging to zone defence system that worked in the playoffs and no longer suits the roster. 

That actually makes a lot of sense. But for some reason Ducharme has Bergevin convinced that sticking with zone defence is the best thing to do.

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15 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Fun with advanced stats:

Corsi: the total number of shot attempts (shots, missed shots, and blocked shots). It is also known as “SAT” or “Shot Attempts.”

CRel%: “Relative Corsi” (CF% Rel or SAT% Rel): Shows the relative effect of a player on the ice. A positive CF% Rel means that when the player is on the ice, the team’s CF% is higher than when the player is not on the ice.when that player is on-ice vs. when not

 

Against BUF, the Suzuki line played as bad as Joel Armia !!!

 

on the positive side, Romanov-Savard had a good night, as well as Dvorak's line (Anderson was in beast mode). The Evan's line had a good night too, except for Lehkonen who had a few of bad shifts.

 

image.png

 

Crel isnt really a great stat for individual games.  Its more something to use over large samples.

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