GHT120 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: ... if a Stanley Cup contender is willing to give a 1st round pick then you grab it ... IDEALLY ... a Stanley Cup pretender to optimize the pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, GHT120 said: IDEALLY ... a Stanley Cup pretender to optimize the pick Yes, that would be even better!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 6:06 PM, Commandant said: Points per 60 is such a misleading stat though.... if you are a third liner who scores a few points, you may rank high there, but if you add more minutes you can't maintain that pace. Its all about are you playing against the other team's top lines, top defenders ... is it a small sample size increasing your metric, etc... Fair enough, those are good points. And yet,if we look at actual scoring 5-on-5, not a rate per 60, the order is still not what one might expect: Lehkonen 5g 12a Drouin 6g 20a Suzuki 3g 10a Anderson 6g 6a Toffoli 2g 8a Evans 5g 5a Dvorak 6g 4a Lehkonen and Drouin are ahead even if we ignore TOI; they really have improved their play this season while some others have regressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, tomh009 said: Fair enough, those are good points. And yet,if we look at actual scoring 5-on-5, not a rate per 60, the order is still not what one might expect: Lehkonen 5g 12a Drouin 6g 20a Suzuki 3g 10a Anderson 6g 6a Toffoli 2g 8a Evans 5g 5a Dvorak 6g 4a Lehkonen and Drouin are ahead even if we ignore TOI; they really have played better this season. Drouin has played big minutes when healthy, so I don't think his pts/60 is inflated. As for Lehkonen, he's having a good season. But given his career I don't think its sustainable long term, and if someone offered a first round pick, I'd trade him. I think relying on him to continue this is not likely to happen. He is what he has always been, a decent third liner with strong defensive play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 59 minutes ago, Commandant said: Drouin has played big minutes when healthy, so I don't think his pts/60 is inflated. As for Lehkonen, he's having a good season. But given his career I don't think its sustainable long term, and if someone offered a first round pick, I'd trade him. I think relying on him to continue this is not likely to happen. He is what he has always been, a decent third liner with strong defensive play. Kinda agree, but I’d call him a solid 3rd line player. There are a lot of players who put up better numbers while given more ice time on a lousy team, but as you’ve stated, usually don’t maintain it. I’d trade him for a 1st rounder in a heartbeat, but I’d try and get a non-lottery protected 1st round pick for next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: I’d trade him for a 1st rounder in a heartbeat, but I’d try and get a non-lottery protected 1st round pick for next year. But who in their right mind would trade an unprotected first for him? The trade has to at least be feasible for the other team... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 3 hours ago, dlbalr said: But who in their right mind would trade an unprotected first for him? The trade has to at least be feasible for the other team... Yeah if someone offers the non protected first of course you take it but no one would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 It would be very tempting to move out several veterans and do an actual "tank" to give then the best odds possible at: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 43 minutes ago, GHT120 said: It would be very tempting to move out several veterans and do an actual "tank" to give then the best odds possible at: Winning the lottery this year and next year would go along ways to the rebuild. Reminds me of when a young Spezza turned Souray into a pylon and scored an OT winner against Theadore. Only this was much slicker! we on the other hand haven’t had a player with that type of skill since Lafleur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 You can no longer win the lottery twice in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Commandant said: You can no longer win the lottery twice in a row. Wasn’t that if you finished out of the top 3 or 5? Also, Does it count if you win with another team’s pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Wasn’t that if you finished out of the top 3 or 5? Also, Does it count if you win with another team’s pick? You can win with another team's pick. But that team can't win twice in a row either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Sorry you can win twice in a row. You can't win more than twice in a five year period. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 52 minutes ago, Commandant said: You can no longer win the lottery twice in a row. Thought the changes were (a) can only move up a maximum 10 spots, and (b) teams cannot win the top pick more than twice in any five year period. EDIT: Commandant posted his update seconds before this post But, although the 2022 and 2023 draft lotteries are distinct events I'd rather win next year ***if*** "the hockey gods" will only give the Habs one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, Commandant said: Sorry you can win twice in a row. You can't win more than twice in a five year period. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154 Thanks, I thought it was something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, GHT120 said: Thought the changes were (a) can only move up a maximum 10 spots, and (b) teams cannot win the top pick more than twice in any five year period. EDIT: Commandant posted his update seconds before this post But, although the 2022 and 2023 draft lotteries are distinct events I'd rather win next year ***if*** "the hockey gods" will only give the Habs one. I want Bedard, but I still want the 1st pick this year. Who knows what are odds will be next year, or what will happen in the lottery. Given how historically awful we are, we better get the 1st overall pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 10 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said: I want Bedard, but I still want the 1st pick this year. Who knows what are odds will be next year, or what will happen in the lottery. Given how historically awful we are, we better get the 1st overall pick. Top-three pick sure seems likely this year. Next year, who knows. How bad will the team be, depends on who is traded away. But most likely we will not be as hard hit by injuries as this year, so I think most likely our pick will not be as good as it will be this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, tomh009 said: Top-three pick sure seems likely this year. Next year, who knows. How bad will the team be, depends on who is traded away. But most likely we will not be as hard hit by injuries as this year, so I think most likely our pick will not be as good as it will be this year. What our expectations are for next season is a rather interesting question. A lot will depend, first, on how many veterans are shipped out before October, and second, Carey Price’s knee. Assuming a healthy Price, you could, in theory, trade only 1-2 veterans, try to add a puck-moving D-man to replace Petry, and bring in a new coach. The team would probably have a good chance of being a bubble team at that point. It would be a bubble team without much of a future - too few blue-chip young players and prospects to justify hope of future contention. But it would have a shot at the playoffs. That’s probably what Bergevin would have done. Swing a couple of deals (replace Petry, maybe get a decent checking C in here) and try to squeak in. Gorton’s history suggests a guy who wants to contend, not merely limp into the playoffs with an aging core. (And if “squeaking in” is the goal, then we should not have fired Bergevin, who was excellent at the trade table). So what I’d expect instead is to see significant moves involving veterans being traded for picks and prospects. The goal for next season should therefore be to hire a new coach who starts instilling accountability and a never-say-die work ethic into a team that will probably not make the playoffs. In other words, expect a season of “moral victories” where the team plays hard, with youthful ebullience, and success is measured in terms of the progression of young talent and team culture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 I agree -- I expect next season's team to be significantly younger than this one. But if it's well-coached and working hard -- and with fewer injuries -- I do think it would do significantly better in the overall standings, maybe even outside the bottom 10 (ie out of the lottery range). So, build based on this year's draft, and don't count on the one next year, unless we somehow manage to pick up some early 2023 picks in a trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 If Petry and Chiarot are gone and Savard is still here, I expect the Habs to miss next year’s playoffs and to pick in the top 10 - regardless of the coach. I am ok if that is the plan. I do not want any Habs high D prospect to burn a development year in the NHL next year under those circumstances. I want the Habs D prospects to simmer on the AHL for a while Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 If both Petry and Chiarot are gone, there will be plenty of ice time available for young D. Too early for Guhle or Harris, I think, but that could be OK for Norlinder. Unless Kulak suddenly gains favour with the new management, we would still need at least two more D-men. Choose from Niku, Wideman and Clague, or pick up another cheap D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huzer Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Boy, if Petry and Chiarot (I also assume Kulak/Wideman may go as UFA rentals, too)....poor Edmundson. And, poor whoever is in net. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, huzer said: Boy, if Petry and Chiarot (I also assume Kulak/Wideman may go as UFA rentals, too)....poor Edmundson. And, poor whoever is in net. Exactly my point. I expect Kulak’s good advance stats to sit well with Gort-Ghes. but the D will be shooting practice for the oposing teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said: Exactly my point. I expect Kulak’s good advance stats to sit well with Gort-Ghes. but the D will be shooting practice for the oposing teams It absolutely will require the new coach to have a SYSTEM to support the defence and for the team to fully buy-into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said: Exactly my point. I expect Kulak’s good advance stats to sit well with Gort-Ghes. but the D will be shooting practice for the oposing teams Gorton and Hughes are talking about building a more offensively-minded team, so maybe the job of the D corps will be more to move out the puck rather than building a wall in front of the net. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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