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GAME#59 HABS vs Flyers 7:00PM Sunday March 13th


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Alex Ovechkin's career shooting percentage is 12.8%

 

I highly doubt Pitlick is going to be a career 20% shooter.  And shooting 20% in lower leagues isnt doing it on NHL goalies.  Somehow hes going to turn NHL goalies into having an .800 save percentage against him for his career?

 

 

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Clearly it's extremely unlikely that he will shoot at 20%+ in the long term. Yet he can shoot, he can pass, he can skate and he can even play defensively.

 

So, why did he fail to find a spot in Nashville and Minnesota, and was waived twice? Yes, those are stronger teams but at the minimum Pitlick looks like a legit bottom-6 NHL player, maybe middle-6.

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Pitlick had 11 points in 20 games with the Wild. Now he has 16 points in 23 games with us.

 

If he is on a freak hot streak in terms of production, then it has been sustained over 43 games: more than Kotkaniemi ever did, for example. He is 24 and this is his first season where he has had a sustained shot in the bigs. Even if he drops off - and I doubt that he is going to continue at a 57-point pace - that should still be enough to make an NHL team think of him seriously as a candidate for a regular roster spot. 

 

What he is showing is that he has skills and has offensive upside. More than, say, Jake Evans or sure-fire #1C superstar Ryan Poehling. AND he is a 24-year-old C in an organization with a dearth of C with any sort of offensive upside. There is room for a 40-point C in this league and on this team.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Pitlick had 11 points in 20 games with the Wild. Now he has 16 points in 23 games with us.

 

If he is on a freak hot streak in terms of production, then it has been sustained over 43 games: more than Kotkaniemi ever did, for example. He is 24 and this is his first season where he has had a sustained shot in the bigs. Even if he drops off - and I doubt that he is going to continue at a 57-point pace - that should still be enough to make an NHL team think of him seriously as a candidate for a regular roster spot. 

 

What he is showing is that he has skills and has offensive upside. More than, say, Jake Evans or sure-fire #1C superstar Ryan Poehling. AND he is a 24-year-old C in an organization with a dearth of C with any sort of offensive upside. There is room for a 40-point C in this league and on this team.

 

He may be pushing Poehling to to the "trade bin" in a package.

 

Habs need a legit 2C and Pitlick will not be it. Clarifying: trading Poehling may give them the chance to improve at 2C by pushing Pitlick/Evans one notch down) and trading for a 2C

Edited by alfredoh2009
clarified
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30 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

He may be pushing Poehling to to the "trade bin" in a package.

 

Habs need a legit 2C and Pitlick will not be it. Clarifying: trading Poehling may give them the chance to improve at 2C by pushing Pitlick/Evans one notch down) and trading for a 2C

Using the simplistic points/game criterion for NHL centres (some of who really aren't playing C) for this year:

  • Suzuki is #52 (0.73 and still improving)
  • Pitlick is #65 (0.65, but is it sustainable?)
  • Hoffman is #93 (and not playing C)
  • Dvorak would be #103 (0.47 but is listed as LW)
  • Kotkaniemi is #124
  • Evans is #149
  • Dauphin is #194
  • Poehling is #198

We have yet to see what Dvorak can do with St Louis behind the bench. But Pitlick's current (career year!) production is pretty close to a lower-end 2C.

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44 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

He may be pushing Poehling to to the "trade bin" in a package...

Poehling is pushing Poehling into the "trade bin" ... or perhaps the "no offer sheet" bin

 

44 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

... Habs need a legit 2C and Pitlick will not be it. Clarifying: trading Poehling may give them the chance to improve at 2C by pushing Pitlick/Evans one notch down) and trading for a 2C

Pushing Pitlick/Evans into the 3C/4C roles is ideal ... but Poehling will be a throw-in- in any trade ... IMO, at the moment his greatest value in a trade would be freeing up a contract slot

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36 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Pushing Pitlick/Evans into the 3C/4C roles is ideal ... but Poehling will be a throw-in- in any trade ... IMO, at the moment his greatest value in a trade would be freeing up a contract slot

 

You're probably right.  His standalone value right is probably no more than a third-round pick, probably a bit less than that.  

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Using the simplistic points/game criterion for NHL centres (some of who really aren't playing C) for this year:

  • Suzuki is #52 (0.73 and still improving)
  • Pitlick is #65 (0.65, but is it sustainable?)
  • Hoffman is #93 (and not playing C)
  • Dvorak would be #103 (0.47 but is listed as LW)
  • Kotkaniemi is #124
  • Evans is #149
  • Dauphin is #194
  • Poehling is #198

We have yet to see what Dvorak can do with St Louis behind the bench. But Pitlick's current (career year!) production is pretty close to a lower-end 2C.

 

I am curious to see how Dvorak performs under St-Louis, but I am not too hopeful since he is slow-ish and doesn't seem to have high hockey-IQ. He seems to me as a productive 3C playing above his talent level at 2C. For the contract he has, I would much rather go with Pitlick/Evans and Dauphin at LW (to play C when needed)

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54 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

You're probably right.  His standalone value right is probably no more than a third-round pick, probably a bit less than that.  

 

I can see trading Poehling if another team requires him as some minor sweetener in order to get a deal done. Otherwise, I'd prefer to keep him in the system. If he can't crack this POS roster, then there is no particular reason to believe he will succeed elsewhere. May as well keep him around as organizational depth. I do agree that trying him at W might be the reasonable next step, though.

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3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Pitlick had 11 points in 20 games with the Wild. Now he has 16 points in 23 games with us.

 

If he is on a freak hot streak in terms of production, then it has been sustained over 43 games: more than Kotkaniemi ever did, for example. He is 24 and this is his first season where he has had a sustained shot in the bigs. Even if he drops off - and I doubt that he is going to continue at a 57-point pace - that should still be enough to make an NHL team think of him seriously as a candidate for a regular roster spot. 

 

What he is showing is that he has skills and has offensive upside. More than, say, Jake Evans or sure-fire #1C superstar Ryan Poehling. AND he is a 24-year-old C in an organization with a dearth of C with any sort of offensive upside. There is room for a 40-point C in this league and on this team.

 

Yes, there is room for a 40 point C. 

 

I'd just be careful in signing him to a contract for a 40 point C and he turns out to not be a 40 point C. 

 

I'm still hesitant on the underlying stats if this year is a one-off. 

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34 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I am curious to see how Dvorak performs under St-Louis, but I am not too hopeful since he is slow-ish and doesn't seem to have high hockey-IQ. He seems to me as a productive 3C playing above his talent level at 2C. For the contract he has, I would much rather go with Pitlick/Evans and Dauphin at LW (to play C when needed)

 

His skating is weak, no doubt on that. 

 

He's got the hockey IQ though.

 

He wouldn't have made the NHL (and had good seasons) if he was both slow and lacking hockey IQ.  If a player is missing both of those, he quite simply wouldn't make it in the league, never mind be a good 2C for a few years in arizona. 

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7 hours ago, Neech said:

Final game for Chiarot? He's proved his value at this point. Shut him down! 

 

What if the teams that want him don't want him sitting for more than a week before they get him (if a trade comes right at the deadline)? 

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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

What if the teams that want him don't want him sitting for more than a week before they get him (if a trade comes right at the deadline)? 

 

I don't see what difference that would make to them.  A few games off will only make him fresher for the stretch run.

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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

What if the teams that want him don't want him sitting for more than a week before they get him (if a trade comes right at the deadline)? 

 

I don't think anyone is going to care about a week.  

 

If it was longer, yes. 

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1 hour ago, Neech said:

I don't see what difference that would make to them.  A few games off will only make him fresher for the stretch run.

 

I remember reading that it came up in talks last year - the bubble teams that are making additions don't want the new guy needing some time to shake off the rust and some players stayed in the lineup a little longer than the trading team would have preferred.  I thought he'd play tonight as a result and then be sat but it looks like I'm wrong on that front.

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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I remember reading that it came up in talks last year - the bubble teams that are making additions don't want the new guy needing some time to shake off the rust and some players stayed in the lineup a little longer than the trading team would have preferred.  I thought he'd play tonight as a result and then be sat but it looks like I'm wrong on that front.

 

Of course, it could also mean they're closer to a deal that will be completed prior to Monday.

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