2022 NHL Offseason Thread

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

Lebrun is saying Petry to Carolina is the rumour now.  

 

 

On TSN690 Aaron Ward just mentioned the Hurricanes qualified Eathan Bear (which they weren't expected to do) because of a controversy of a "personal nature" that has arisen surrounding one of their older/veteran defenceman ... *** may *** explain their supposed/sudden interest in a RHD ... and give other teams a bit of leverage.

[DON]

I will simply feel better with Petry dealt for an OK return. But, that will leave a bigger hole on the right side and require adding some RH d-man (hopefully alot cheaper and younger).

[Prime Minister Koivu]

We should get this guy as an advisor. 
 

 

[Commandant]

46 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

On TSN690 Aaron Ward just mentioned the Hurricanes qualified Eathan Bear (which they weren't expected to do) because of a controversy of a "personal nature" that has arisen surrounding one of their older/veteran defenceman ... *** may *** explain their supposed/sudden interest in a RHD ... and give other teams a bit of leverage.

 

Bear ++ for Petry isnt a bad deal. Assuming the pieces are at least one premium pick/prospect.

 

Something like Bear, ryan suzuki and a 1st round draft pick.

[GHT120]

7 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Bear ++ for Petry isnt a bad deal. Assuming the pieces are at least one premium pick/prospect.

 

Something like Bear, ryan suzuki and a 1st round draft pick.

 

DONE as far as I'm concerned ... but sadly I'm not the GM of either team.

[GHT120]

15 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

We should get this guy as an advisor. 

 

 

ABSOLUTELY

 

But I could see him, ***if*** he wants to continue, joining the Red Wings (former coach and consultant with Detroit) or TBL (where he lives).

[hab29RETIRED]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Lebrun is saying Petry to Carolina is the rumour now.  

For who - KK?🙄

[Habsfan89]

Man now Johnny hockey going to free agency. This has by far got to be the most craziest year ever. To 

[dlbalr]

Speaking of free agency, we'll have a separate thread tomorrow for the festivities like usual.  In the meantime, make your predictions for who signs where: http://www.habsworld.net/2022/07/enter-the-2022-habsworld-ufa-pool/

[Sir_Boagalott]

Interesting:

 

"The Habs took advantage of the draft to make a deal that has yet to be announced. My guess is that it will be announced this week. It is very likely that Kent Hughes and his counterpart will wait until the free-agent market opens before making it official." - Renaud Lavoie

 

According to another rumour Dach was Hughes Plan B, but his Plan A might still happen.  i.e. Dubois. 

 

Apparently the Dubois deal fell through on draft day because the Hawks traded DeBrincat to the Sens for the 7th pick, which the Jets would have taken.  Sounds like the Sens took DeBrincat over Anderson so the Habs ended up with Dach over Dubois. 

 

 

[dlbalr]

21 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Interesting:

 

"The Habs took advantage of the draft to make a deal that has yet to be announced. My guess is that it will be announced this week. It is very likely that Kent Hughes and his counterpart will wait until the free-agent market opens before making it official." - Renaud Lavoie

 

The only reason that I can think of to do something like that is to wait for a signing bonus to be paid at the start of the league year.

[Sir_Boagalott]

2 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

The only reason that I can think of to do something like that is to wait for a signing bonus to be paid at the start of the league year.

 

Thats a good point, but it could also be to keep the advantage in trading other guys too.  i.e. if they already had Dubois, they'd have to move Petry or somebody.  Then other teams would know they could somewhat lowball because Hughes would be in a position where he *must* get rid of players to fit Dubois. 

 

I get a funny feeling that tomorrow will be crazy.  I checked the Cap space and most teams don't have much, but a couple have a ton.  I'm thinking if the Ducks and Wings play it right they could be playing each other in the Cup Final next year.  i.e. they both have about 40 mil cap space, and the UFA player salary seems to be vastly greater than all the teams available Cap space.  Teams dont have enough $ to sign all the UFAs, so theres going to be some crazy deals on some players.  The teams with the most money if they play it right and have patience will get the best deals.  After the 1st couple of days most teams will be capped out, leaving the remaining UFAs to the teams still with money.  I imagine that quite a few really good players will be singed for 50% their regular value on 1-3 years deals. 

[Sir_Boagalott]

On 7/11/2022 at 12:30 PM, dlbalr said:

 

A few responses to your thoughts...

 

If his shooting percentage goes down to 14%, his point total is going to go down, not up.  This is a player who never even reached 45 points in the minors so to think he's basically a lock for at least that is a thought that no other NHL executive has.  You note players are streaky which is correct but you have to factor in the bad with the good.  He's not having that type of unsustainable hot streak again which, again, leads to lowered point expectations, not higher.  You can't take a small sample size, extrapolate it, and say that's his floor next season.  By that logic, the Habs signed a 50-point player in Jordan Weal, a similar player to Pitlick who was acquired under similar circumstances (a short-term depth guy).  We all know how that turned out.

 

The Habs do not come close to running four even lines.  Pitlick got 17 minutes a game last season because of injuries.  Now, he's what, ninth or tenth on the depth chart in terms of wingers?  Even if they move a veteran out, I don't think he'd crack the lineup.  Is it justifiable to move out multiple veterans for poor returns (or paying to move the contracts since 2/3 of the league is desperate to dump money) to make a spot for Pitlick in the bottom six where he'd play 8-13 minutes a game?  Not at all; that would be poor asset management on Montreal's part.  You said to move someone like Byron out to make room.  Who's trading anything for an injured Byron that might not be ready for camp by his own admission last week?  No one so that's not a viable option.  It is going to be tough moving pricey veterans out, that much we've seen already in recent days.  

 

I have no problems with them offering a cheap one-year deal.  That's what they've offered.  The fact it isn't done yet means that Pitlick isn't willing to accept such a contract.  There's a limit to what a reasonable offer is for someone in Pitlick's situation (nearly VI-eligible where the record contract for a VI player is Matthew Peca with the Habs at $1.4 million which proved out to be way too much) and from the little bit I've heard, the Habs are around that point.  If Pitlick thinks he can get more, he can try his luck in free agency where he'll be offered plenty of minimum-salary deals as that's all the contenders that you listed can afford.  There's a fair offer on the table for him so again, that's not bad asset management if Pitlick declines it.

 

His S% would average out at 14% if he was still getting 17+ mins/game.  Its possible to score 8 g on 10 shots, but the more shots taken lowers the s%.  At 8-13 mins/game his S% would probably be 18-20%.  Plus, scoring isnt the only way to get points.  He's even better at passing. 

 

I think it would be justifiable to move out multiple veterans for poor returns to keep Pitlick.  A big part of why I want to keep Pitlick is not for next year but the year(s) after that.  I tend to view losing Pitlick this summer as bad asset management because Byron is gone after this season, as is likely Drouin, every assumes Dadonov is gone at the trade deadline.  Plus Hoffman will probably be moved too.   Pitlick is a great candidate to try to sign for a positive value contract. 

 

 

On 7/11/2022 at 8:47 AM, GHT120 said:

To reply to some of your points

• "on pace" is not the same as doing it ... and has little value when a player hasn't done it previously ... IMO "on pace" is mostly useful to see how a player whose season gets shortened was performing compared to his history.

• Habs don't "roll 4 lines avg about 15 mins" ... 5-on-5 last season (about 50 min/gm), Habs forwards with at least 30 games played ranged from 10:36 (Poehling) to 15:55 (Suzuki, who also got 4:35 on PP and PK).
  NOTE: 5-on-5 excludes the roughly 10 min/gm the Habs killed penalties or were on the powerplay.
   
• It's easy to say keep him and move a more expensive player but is there a guarantee they can? 
  In fact, it is possible it might cost them to move that player (either assets or bad contract back) ... it is not as simple an equation as you present.
   
• A player can opt for arbitration regardless of what the team initially offers ... if we agree he shouldn't get much why risk an arbitrator buying in to the "on pace" argument and paying him accordingly ... remember, the "comparables" used by arbitrators include contracts overpaying for similar production ... just because he isn't qualified doesn't mean the Habs can't still negotiate with him ... it just eliminates arbitration rights.

 

My point is he has proved that it isnt a fluke.  You're right, there is no guarantee that they can move somebody, but I'd even pay Byron's salary and give Arizona a 7th-5th to take him so they could keep Rem. 

 

Rem reminds of Byron and Armia; and in numerous ways.  They all have really accurate shots and will generally hit the net and score when they get a really good scoring chance.  They're really good at capitalizing and converting on scoring chances and thats what a team needs, especially from 3rd or 4th liners.  Also, most people say they are 3rd or 4th liners but none of them are out of place on the 2nd or 1st line when injuries happen.  That can't be said with most 3rd or 4th liners.      

 

Thanks for adding the last bit because I wassnt sure and was definitely wondering if there is a rule preventing a team from singing a UFA in the same year that they didnt qualify the player. 

 

This year could be the worst year ever to be a UFA so hopefully they can get him back.   There wasnt many bright points to last season but I would say that he was 1 of them. 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Something like Bear, ryan suzuki and a 1st round draft pick.

 

That seems like a pretty optimistic return for Petry but I hope you are right. 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

The only reason that I can think of to do something like that is to wait for a signing bonus to be paid at the start of the league year.

 

Petry has a 3 million bonus.

 

I bet hes off to Carolina after its paid.

 

Also Kulak is coming home.

[Commandant]

Pitlick's season in 2021-22 was a fluke and he will never score 35 points in an NHL season. Never mind 45 as you are saying. You can save this and quote me on it.

 

He was waived twice for a reason.  He's not that good.

[Commandant]

35 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

That seems like a pretty optimistic return for Petry but I hope you are right. 

 

It is but im assuming the Habs paying the 3 million bonus gets them a bit of a premium.

[GHT120]

9 hours ago, dlbalr said:

The only reason that I can think of to do something like that is to wait for a signing bonus to be paid at the start of the league year.

 

 

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

Petry has a 3 million bonus.

I bet hes off to Carolina after its paid ...

 

 

A quick scan of CapFriendly shows the only other player the Habs might want/be-willing to trade with a signing bonus is ... Carey Price ... and whatever my dreams he isn't moving.

 

The Hurricanes make a lot of sense for Petry ... especially if Stars out of the running (i.e., focused on Burns).

Very unlikely outside the box options:

• Colorado: tough to repeat ... adding Petry as the 2-RHD certainly upgrades their defence
• San Jose: Sharks "get younger" (trading Burns and then bringing in Petry) and save some cap space
• Columbus: bit thin and/or young on RHD 
• Nashville: bit thin and/or young on RHD ... don't want to waste the re-signing of Forsberg

 

Perhaps the most likely other option, because I simply see absolutely no reason for it, is Detroit ... they have two young RHD in their Top 4 (Seider and Hronek)

[DON]

Kooky Habfans eh!

 

 

[dlbalr]

8 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Pitlick is a great candidate to try to sign for a positive value contract. 

 

My point is he has proved that it isnt a fluke.  You're right, there is no guarantee that they can move somebody, but I'd even pay Byron's salary and give Arizona a 7th-5th to take him so they could keep Rem.

 

He isn't a candidate for that though.  They tried, he said no.  I don't think he's capable of repeating the fluky season he had whether it's in Montreal or elsewhere and even if they cleared out several veterans for him, Pitlick still probably isn't in Montreal's long-term plans.  (Slafkovsky, Anderson, and Caufield - they're stuck with Gallagher for a while yet as well.)

 

It will cost considerably more than that to offload Byron or other overpaid veterans without taking money back.  When you factor that into the equation, it 100% isn't worth it to keep what's likely to be a one-hit wonder in Pitlick.  He certainly hasn't proven last season wasn't a fluke yet; he simply hasn't played enough in the NHL to show that this level of performance gives him a new 45-point floor as you keep attesting to.

 

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

He isn't a candidate for that though.  They tried, he said no.  I don't think he's capable of repeating the fluky season he had whether it's in Montreal or elsewhere and even if they cleared out several veterans for him, Pitlick still probably isn't in Montreal's long-term plans.  (Slafkovsky, Anderson, and Caufield - they're stuck with Gallagher for a while yet as well.)

 

It will cost considerably more than that to offload Byron or other overpaid veterans without taking money back.  When you factor that into the equation, it 100% isn't worth it to keep what's likely to be a one-hit wonder in Pitlick.  He certainly hasn't proven last season wasn't a fluke yet; he simply hasn't played enough in the NHL to show that this level of performance gives him a new 45-point floor as you keep attesting to.

 

Yeah - no way you sign pitlick for anything close to what he is asking. We have enough overpaid grunts on the team like Armia. Considering Kane just signed for around a $5m cap hit, it would be insane to pay pitlick even half of that.

[Plutarch]

Would the blue jackets have enough cap for Laine if they trade Nyquist or are they going to have to blow the roster up more? Bjork?

[GHT120]

59 minutes ago, Plutarch said:

Would the blue jackets have enough cap for Laine if they trade Nyquist or are they going to have to blow the roster up more? Bjork?

Per CapFriendly ... moving Nyquist (assuming no retention) would leave them with just shy of $8.67M in space ... but that would put them right against the ceiling, with no flexibility.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

This article is a head shaker.  I posted it as some of you might find it amusing.  Especially the last sentence of the article. 

 

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/07/13/toronto-maple-leafs-ilya-samsonov/

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

12 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

This article is a head shaker.  I posted it as some of you might find it amusing.  Especially the last sentence of the article. 

 

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/07/13/toronto-maple-leafs-ilya-samsonov/

 

AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA

 

No wonder Leafs Nation act like such idiots, if this is the sort of analysis they're being fed on the regular.

 

That being said, I was listening to Kevin Woodley yesterday, and he thinks these were good moves by the Leafs (and he is equally skeptical about Campbell flourishing in EDM). He had a technical analysis of Murray's development or lack thereof and is cautiously optimistic that Murray can progress under TO's more stable and professional goalie coaching structures. By contrast, Campbell's underlying numbers suggest a guy who will get lit up under Edmonton's dodgier defensive structure.

 

So, TO's goalie carousel may work to their advantage. But those closing comments in this article? Again: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAA