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Tank Hard for Bedard (as heard on TSN690)


alfredoh2009

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50 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

I agree 100%. Tanking is putting a torch to the place like Chicago, Habs aren't doing that.  The difference between rebuilding and tanking can be subtle at times but there is a difference. 

 

Agree ... not making trades just to eke out a few more wins is not the same as tanking ... it is recognizing reality and accepting that the process will take time.

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24 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I’m not sure I even agree with this - at least not as you frame it. 

 

If we’re clearly out of the playoffs, then yes, we should be managing assets so as to ensure future success. But that is not interchangeable with “getting the best odds at a top 10 pick.” E.g., if the Habs are 21st overall and out of the playoff picture, the best way to maximize our draft odds for 2023 would be to trade Suzuki at the deadline. That this is obviously out of the question proves that the GM’s strategy shouldn’t be only (or even primarily) about maximizing draft position.

 

 

I'll offer a smnall edit that I feel better captures the intent of his original post:

To me if you're out of the playoff picture by the all star break, your mind set as a gm should be getting the best odds at a top 10 pick, within the context of continuing the building of the team for the future around the youth core. Not trying to make the playoffs, that you know you very well can't make. 

 

That said ... in the current context, I do not believe HuGo need wait for the All-Star break ... IMO next season is one where I could possibly see benefit from "chasing" a playoff spot even if they don't make it ... this season, IMO every roster move (i.e., trades, waivers, promotions, demotions) must be made with the ongoing build around the existing youth core in mind ... Hughes needs to establish in his mind what he wants/hopes to get in trades for Drouin, Dadonov, Hoffman, Monahan, Byron and Armia ... and make the trades when an offer meets that return (ala Toffoli) ... I am ***NOT*** advocating selling low ... some players (e.g., Drouin, Hoffman, Byron, Monahan) may/will need to rehabilitate their "game" on the ice to earn a reasonable return (although the closer to the deadline the more realistic the "target returns" have to get) ... someone like Anderson or Dvorak could/should be traded ***if*** a sufficient offer is made but there should be no "need" to trade either, so the offer would have to be GOOD ... PERSOANLLY, if Gallagher plays well and attracts interest I would gladly move him on as long as it doesn't cost any assets to do so (I realize many will not agree and I will not try to convince them, their opinion is as valid as mine). 

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I’m not sure where to put this observation, so I’ll dump it here. Squinting half-blindly into the future, it would not surprise me if, for reasons other than linguistic politics, the Habs re-sign Drouin. This has to do with organizational depth at LW, or lack thereof.

 

Neither Byron nor Hoffman are likely to be around after this season. If Drouin leaves as well, that will leave three vacancies at LW in the top-9 - effectively gutting the roster at that position. Now, maybe Slaf will be ready by 2023, but that would still leave two holes to fill. Heineman or Farrell might or might not be plausible options.

 

We could, of course, let Drouin walk and try to sign a UFA to patch over the LW position until our LW prospects are ready. But unless Drouin insists on huge term, I can well see an organization just signing the devil they know, under these circumstances.

 

Just saying…

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57 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I’m not sure where to put this observation, so I’ll dump it here. Squinting half-blindly into the future, it would not surprise me if, for reasons other than linguistic politics, the Habs re-sign Drouin. This has to do with organizational depth at LW, or lack thereof.

 

Neither Byron nor Hoffman are likely to be around after this season. If Drouin leaves as well, that will leave three vacancies at LW in the top-9 - effectively gutting the roster at that position. Now, maybe Slaf will be ready by 2023, but that would still leave two holes to fill. Heineman or Farrell might or might not be plausible options.

 

We could, of course, let Drouin walk and try to sign a UFA to patch over the LW position until our LW prospects are ready. But unless Drouin insists on huge term, I can well see an organization just signing the devil they know, under these circumstances.

 

Just saying…

 

I do not think the linguistic politics are a criteria considered by Hugh-Gort and Molson anymore. I truly believe the Habs are past that starting with the current management.

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... Neither Byron nor Hoffman are likely to be around after this season ...

 

 

Byron is a pending UFA who has played a total of 102 games over the last 3 seasons ... I would not be surprised if he retires after this season ... if he manages to stay healthy enough to play, and play decently, he might get moved at the deadline AND/OR could have a shot at a "bury-able" contract (i.e., the league minimum of $750K to a maximum of $1.125M) somewhere next season.

 

But Hoffman has another season on his contract at $4.5M ... unless he has a VERY good season it may be difficult to move Mr. "There's a Defensive Zone too" at the deadline, or even next summer ... thanks Marc.

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  • 2 weeks later...

time for a little reading on the topic:

 

The Montreal Gazette reports that BetOnline.ag has the Habs finishing third worst but (if I understand the last paragraph) that the organization may tank to finish last because the daft class is better:

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/sports-betting/nhl-betting/arizona-chicago-and-montreal-among-the-teams-that-should-be-tanking-hard-for-connor-bedard

 

Pronman from The Athletic has them finishing ahead of ARZ, CHI, PHI and SJS 

https://theathletic.com/3668292/2022/10/10/nhl-season-predictions-stanley-cup-playoffs/

 

NY Post has one of the funniest lines about ARZ: "he Coyotes of Arizona State — why not? — are still tanking for Matthews, aren’t they?"

Habs are in the same group as ARZ, SJS, CHI and PHI

https://nypost.com/2022/10/11/2022-23-nhl-preview-the-tankers-the-haves-the-have-nots/

 

Finally, this CHI Blackhawks fan/forum web site has a good analysis from the outside looking-in on the chances of the Habs: "f that young talent progresses, Montreal probably won’t be a problem. If not ... look out. "

https://www.secondcityhockey.com/2022/10/10/23396721/chicago-blackhawks-2022-2023-nhl-season-preview-connor-bedard-sweepstakes

 

===

Happy NHL season, forum friends. It will be a fun ride once again!

 

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44 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

time for a little reading on the topic:

 

The Montreal Gazette reports that BetOnline.ag has the Habs finishing third worst but (if I understand the last paragraph) that the organization may tank to finish last because the daft class is better:

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/sports-betting/nhl-betting/arizona-chicago-and-montreal-among-the-teams-that-should-be-tanking-hard-for-connor-bedard

 

Pronman from The Athletic has them finishing ahead of ARZ, CHI, PHI and SJS 

https://theathletic.com/3668292/2022/10/10/nhl-season-predictions-stanley-cup-playoffs/

 

NY Post has one of the funniest lines about ARZ: "he Coyotes of Arizona State — why not? — are still tanking for Matthews, aren’t they?"

Habs are in the same group as ARZ, SJS, CHI and PHI

https://nypost.com/2022/10/11/2022-23-nhl-preview-the-tankers-the-haves-the-have-nots/

 

Finally, this CHI Blackhawks fan/forum web site has a good analysis from the outside looking-in on the chances of the Habs: "f that young talent progresses, Montreal probably won’t be a problem. If not ... look out. "

https://www.secondcityhockey.com/2022/10/10/23396721/chicago-blackhawks-2022-2023-nhl-season-preview-connor-bedard-sweepstakes

 

===

Happy NHL season, forum friends. It will be a fun ride once again!

 

 

That is a great line about Arizona still tanking for Mathews. LOL  It will be a fun ride as we watch the kids develop in Montreal and in junior, college etc,  and cheer for all the teams playing Florida. One more bad year before we really see progress I think. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/11/2022 at 10:17 AM, alfredoh2009 said:

time for a little reading on the topic:

 

The Montreal Gazette reports that BetOnline.ag has the Habs finishing third worst but (if I understand the last paragraph) that the organization may tank to finish last because the daft class is better:

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/sports-betting/nhl-betting/arizona-chicago-and-montreal-among-the-teams-that-should-be-tanking-hard-for-connor-bedard

 

Pronman from The Athletic has them finishing ahead of ARZ, CHI, PHI and SJS 

https://theathletic.com/3668292/2022/10/10/nhl-season-predictions-stanley-cup-playoffs/

 

NY Post has one of the funniest lines about ARZ: "he Coyotes of Arizona State — why not? — are still tanking for Matthews, aren’t they?"

Habs are in the same group as ARZ, SJS, CHI and PHI

https://nypost.com/2022/10/11/2022-23-nhl-preview-the-tankers-the-haves-the-have-nots/

 

Finally, this CHI Blackhawks fan/forum web site has a good analysis from the outside looking-in on the chances of the Habs: "f that young talent progresses, Montreal probably won’t be a problem. If not ... look out. "

https://www.secondcityhockey.com/2022/10/10/23396721/chicago-blackhawks-2022-2023-nhl-season-preview-connor-bedard-sweepstakes

 

===

Happy NHL season, forum friends. It will be a fun ride once again!

 

 

On the eve of Montreal's 10th game of the season, here are the ten teams currently with the best odds at drafting Bedard. Only two who were predicted as "tankers" made the list !

 

image.png

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That's not really a projection, just the standings after ten-ish games. This is Dom L's current projection from The Athletic. I agree with his basic approach though not all of his model. Still, his model is doing a reasonable projection of how things might end up.

 

Screen-Shot-2022-10-31-at-9.02.17-AM.png

 

And here the Habs are projected to finish sixth from the bottom and a 1% chance at making the playoffs, which is not an unreasonable projection.

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He has them 26th, whicb seems reasonable and still would be pick #7.

 

In "one' very early mock- Zach Benson is 7th pick.. SIMPLY for an example.

Zachary Benson
Center
Born May 12 2005  -- Chilliwack, BC 
Height 5.10 -- Weight 159 -- Shoots L


                                            --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020-21  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    24   10   10   20   12
2021-22  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    58   25   38   63   28  15   9  14  23  10
2022-23  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    14    7   12   19    8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

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20 minutes ago, DON said:

He has them 26th, whicb seems reasonable and still would be pick #7.

 

In "one' very early mock- Zach Benson is 7th pick.. SIMPLY for an example.

Zachary Benson
Center
Born May 12 2005  -- Chilliwack, BC 
Height 5.10 -- Weight 159 -- Shoots L


                                            --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020-21  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    24   10   10   20   12
2021-22  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    58   25   38   63   28  15   9  14  23  10
2022-23  Winnipeg Ice                WHL    14    7   12   19    8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

26th guarantees no worse than 9th (i.e., two teams lower than 7th both win the lottery draws and move up inside the top 7) with 6.5% chance at #1 and still a chance to move up if they don't win that draw.

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

On the eve of Montreal's 10th game of the season, here are the ten teams currently with the best odds at drafting Bedard. Only two who were predicted as "tankers" made the list !

 

image.png

It’s way too early in the season for these standing to even matter. Do you really think the Avs will miss the playoffs and finish below the hawks?  Or that Philly is a top 10 team?

 

hell I remember us missing the playoffs one year when we were the top league at the end of October.

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30 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

It’s way too early in the season for these standing to even matter. Do you really think the Avs will miss the playoffs and finish below the hawks?  Or that Philly is a top 10 team?

 

hell I remember us missing the playoffs one year when we were the top league at the end of October.

 

no, I do not expect th4e Avs or the Leafs to miss the playoffs

 

I was just curious to read what others in the forum are thinking

 

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7 hours ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

this thread is useless

 

I hear you. The way these youngsters are developing a more appropriate thread might be "Who will the Habs take with the 32nd pick in the 2023 draft?"  Of course they might get a little luckier with Florida's pick (maybe 22-26).  Bedard ain't happening. 

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47 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I hear you. The way these youngsters are developing a more appropriate thread might be "Who will the Habs take with the 32nd pick in the 2023 draft?"  Of course they might get a little luckier with Florida's pick (maybe 22-26).  Bedard ain't happening. 

That may be true. But we are only a couple of injuries on D away from playing Scheuneman, Barron or someone like Bowey on a reqular basis. Hopefully, that doesn't happen, but our NHL depth on D is already injured. Also, if Allen or Montembault gets hurt our chances for Bedard go way up. That said, I hope the Habs continue to exceed expectations and Florida unexpectedly crashes and burns.    

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8 hours ago, PMAC said:

That may be true. But we are only a couple of injuries on D away from playing Scheuneman, Barron or someone like Bowey on a reqular basis. Hopefully, that doesn't happen, but our NHL depth on D is already injured. Also, if Allen or Montembault gets hurt our chances for Bedard go way up. That said, I hope the Habs continue to exceed expectations and Florida unexpectedly crashes and burns.    

 

I was just letting my enthusiasm run a little wild. Hopefully Florida has a tough year.  It's still early. 

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Luck/randomness is still a significant factor with only about 10 games played by most teams, too. Tougher schedule or opposing team having a bad day will have an outsize impact on this small a sample size.

 

I do see enough that I don't think the Habs will be top-three for the lottery, but I do expect them to be well out of the playoffs, and likely still in the lottery.

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9 hours ago, PMAC said:

That may be true. But we are only a couple of injuries on D away from playing Scheuneman, Barron or someone like Bowey on a reqular basis. Hopefully, that doesn't happen, but our NHL depth on D is already injured. Also, if Allen or Montembault gets hurt our chances for Bedard go way up. That said, I hope the Habs continue to exceed expectations and Florida unexpectedly crashes and burns.    

That's the case with most teams if they lose there #1 goalie or top 2 defenders!

 

Wait a second...We've already started the season (going on 10 games) with our defacto #1 and #2 Dmen out of the line up and our #1  GOALIE  for the season/ permanently...

 

So your saying if we lose our top 4 dman? Lol

 

What team wouldn't be screwed?

 

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19 hours ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

this thread is useless

 

I don't know about that. 

 

Analytically this is still a bottom five team that has had some puck luck in that the team shooting percentage is far above what should be expected. 

 

I still see us being well out of the playoffs after 82 games. 

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Everyone agrees that we'll be out of the playoffs by season's end and it's vital for our future that we draft a stud. We'd all love for it to be Bedard but that's unlikely even if we were as bad as last year. There's also the weird fact that we've been better at snagging talent late in the lottery than in the top 3 - Guhle, Cole, and Sergachev look like surer bets than KK and Slaf at this point. It looks like this is a loaded draft with maybe 4-5 blue chippers at the top, so even if we don't get Bedard I'd be happy with one of those stud forwards. 

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