Tank Hard for Bedard (as heard on TSN690)

[huzer]

4 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Dom L’s model on The Athletic currently projects the Habs to finish 29th, with about 69 points.

 

I think the Habs track closer to their pts/game of their past 20 or so games (maybe a bump when Monahan/Matheson return) but finish closer to ~63 pts. Dom's projection basically means he expects the Habs to replicate their first half performance.

 

At any rate, Anaheim, Columbus, and Chicago are SERIOUS about their tank job this year. I don't think the Habs will drop below any of them and end up at 28th.

[alfredoh2009]

4 hours ago, Commandant said:

The Bruins are 1st in axDiff this year.  Last year they were 29th.   Not much has really changed on the team.   Its a measure that they are getting breaks this year that they didn't last year. 

 

While the Bruins are a good team, their current points pace threatens the best records in NHL history if maintained over 82 games.  The axDiff tells us that the number of points they have picked up has exceeded the quality of their play, and they aren't actually one of the best teams of all-time.  Expect that in the second half, they will regress from that pace, and while still one of the top teams in the NHL, are unlikely to be historically good. 

 

A similar situation is seen with Seattle.  Last year they were 31st in this stat, this year they are in 2nd.  Again, those who looked at that stat last year saw that Seattle was not nearly as bad as their record and were due for an improvement this season.  Looking at this season they are overperforming.  Their true talent is somewhere in the middle of last season and this season. 

 

 

 

you get all tied up in these arguments. Don't know why.

 

Moving on

[alfredoh2009]

3 hours ago, huzer said:

 

I think the Habs track closer to their pts/game of their past 20 or so games (maybe a bump when Monahan/Matheson return) but finish closer to ~63 pts. Dom's projection basically means he expects the Habs to replicate their first half performance.

 

At any rate, Anaheim, Columbus, and Chicago are SERIOUS about their tank job this year. I don't think the Habs will drop below any of them and end up at 28th.

 

that is reasonable

[Prime Minister Koivu]

3 hours ago, huzer said:

 

I think the Habs track closer to their pts/game of their past 20 or so games (maybe a bump when Monahan/Matheson return) but finish closer to ~63 pts. Dom's projection basically means he expects the Habs to replicate their first half performance.

 

At any rate, Anaheim, Columbus, and Chicago are SERIOUS about their tank job this year. I don't think the Habs will drop below any of them and end up at 28th.

 

On 12/30/2022 at 4:23 PM, tomh009 said:

 Lottery percentages:
32nd: 25.5 / 18.8 / 55.7

31st: 13.5 / 14.4 / 32.0 / 40.2

30th: 11.5 / 11.5 / 7.4/ 40.7 / 28.8

29th: 9.5 / 9.8 / 0.0 / 15.4 / 44.9 / 20.5

28th: 8.5/ 8.8 / 0.0 /0 .0 / 24.5 / 44.2 / 13.9

28th still gives us a shot at Bedard but failing that it would still give us a great player. 
 

Im excited to add at least one great player to our team.  Go Chicago/Anaheim/Columbus 

[GHT120]

16 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

28th still gives us a shot at Bedard but failing that it would still give us a great player. 
 

Im excited to add at least one great player to our team.  Go Chicago/Anaheim/Columbus 

 

 

I would say great prospect, from all I read ... but great player will only be proven over time.

[Sir_Boagalott]

On 12/30/2022 at 4:23 PM, tomh009 said:

 Lottery percentages:
32nd: 25.5 / 18.8 / 55.7

31st: 13.5 / 14.4 / 32.0 / 40.2

30th: 11.5 / 11.5 / 7.4/ 40.7 / 28.8

29th: 9.5 / 9.8 / 0.0 / 15.4 / 44.9 / 20.5

28th: 8.5/ 8.8 / 0.0 /0 .0 / 24.5 / 44.2 / 13.9

 

Those aren't the Habs real chances though because that % leaves out Floridas pick, who have a 3.5% chance.

 

Therefore, the Habs actual chance at Bedard is 8.5 + 3.5 = 12%, which is actually the 3rd highest % chance.  

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

you get all tied up in these arguments. Don't know why.

 

Moving on

 

I've posted twice on the topic of this stat.

You have started this "I'm not going to answer you." which basically says to me that you have no rebuttal cause you know I'm right when we are talking advanced stats and what they represent. 

[Sir_Boagalott]

Good news on the Tank front:  the Sens Norris is returning soon.  He should score goals and help the Sens get some points so they rise in the standings.  

 

At this point in the season the worst case scenario would be the Habs finishing above the Sens

[alfredoh2009]

I am not happy about the injuries. I have been hoping for a tank without them

but this helps the tank, and besides Monahan, it does not affect the pending UFAs. They will be played more often !

 

Medical updates and emergency recallshttps://t.co/Xm220rIYMl

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) January 17, 2023

 

 

[alfredoh2009]

The lack of roster decisions in the first half of the year seems to have caught up the the Habs. Looks like a suffocation job, or taking by omission to improve the roster

 

Happy they seem headed to drafting one in the top 5.

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

The lack of roster decisions in the first half of the year seems to have caught up the the Habs. Looks like a suffocation job, or taking by omission to improve the roster

 

Happy they seem headed to drafting one in the top 5.

 

 

What decisions did you expect them to make?  Injuries are tough to plan for especially for a lower end team. 

[alfredoh2009]

9 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

What decisions did you expect them to make?  Injuries are tough to plan for especially for a lower end team. 

I'll reply after Hugh-Gort's press conference on Wednesday. To see if I can base my thought on something more than an opinion.

[huzer]

24 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I'll reply after Hugh-Gort's press conference on Wednesday. To see if I can base my thought on something more than an opinion.

But you already threw the thought out there. "The lack of roster decisions in the first part of the year..." implies you thought they should have done something to prepare for injuries in January. Speak up, or don't put that initial comment out there. It's simply a backhanded way to continue to criticize Hughes and Gorton without substantiating it.

 

Anyway, you continue to be consistently inconsistent, taking the contrarian view to troll-ian levels. 

[Commandant]

16 minutes ago, huzer said:

But you already threw the thought out there. "The lack of roster decisions in the first part of the year..." implies you thought they should have done something to prepare for injuries in January. Speak up, or don't put that initial comment out there. It's simply a backhanded way to continue to criticize Hughes and Gorton without substantiating it.

 

Anyway, you continue to be consistently inconsistent, taking the contrarian view to troll-ian levels. 

 

Stop bullying him.

 

Seriously, Im glad im not the only one who noticed this.  He defended every move from Bergevin and Ducharme so now anything Hughes, Gorton, and MSL have done is just criticized.

[alfredoh2009]

2 hours ago, huzer said:

But you already threw the thought out there. "The lack of roster decisions in the first part of the year..." implies you thought they should have done something to prepare for injuries in January. Speak up, or don't put that initial comment out there. It's simply a backhanded way to continue to criticize Hughes and Gorton without substantiating it.

 

Anyway, you continue to be consistently inconsistent, taking the contrarian view to troll-ian levels. 

Ok, from a parking lot before heading home:

1. At the beginning of the season when Edmundson and Matheson were hurt. Kovacevic was added: good

2. At around Christmas when Matheson, Edmundson and Forget-the-name other D were hurt: was too late to make a trade 

3. In between, Laval was short on Ds and D depth was a concern-> that is when Inwould have made a trade to build some resilience and buffer and not expose young D

 

 

[alfredoh2009]

(Continued)

4. at the beginning of the season , top line was doing great, other lines not good: was worrisome but not on rebuild year

5. now, Habs have a surplus of IRS and even with the recalls can barely field a competitive roster: too late to make change

6. in between, multiple rumours  have circulated on potential trades, but seems (cannot confirm, waiting for presser) like decision is to wait it out 

[alfredoh2009]

(Continued, sorry foot the long post. Haven’t had a chance to edit and clarify thoughts)

I hate loosing but I have embraced the tank because Inwould like to see the Gabs win a cup. 
I would have liked some depth trades to relieve pressure from the few decent veterans and the young guns foot the following reasons:

a) to prevent injury from overplaying best players

b) to focus development away from team performance even if on NHL roster: put the onus of winning on money players on expiring contracts 

c) I would also have liked a depth G signing for the few times you need a guy to sit on the bench like Primeau is doing now. G depth is so thin that Ineould prefer to see him play

 

[alfredoh2009]

Now on the specific moves, that is what I usualy post on the trade thread

 

But Inhave stopped doing my usual dive into other teams needs and roster/cap to find potential trades 

 

The forum has been fairly clear that U do not know what I am saying and there is no entertaining value for me on becoming the dog you kick by just posting my thoughts for fun

 

yiu all know I do not take myself seriously: hence the Mr. Potato head avatar

[alfredoh2009]

Just put me on ignore if I aggravate you : please 

[tomh009]

40 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

6. in between, multiple rumours  have circulated on potential trades, but seems (cannot confirm, waiting for presser) like decision is to wait it out 

I think those rumours are more trade proposals ("Habs should try to trade for X because Y") rather than anything involving actual discussions between Hughes and other GMs.

[alfredoh2009]

18 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I think those rumours are more trade proposals ("Habs should try to trade for X because Y") rather than anything involving actual discussions between Hughes and other GMs.

I think you are right

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

The forum has been fairly clear that U do not know what I am saying and there is no entertaining value for me on becoming the dog you kick by just posting my thoughts for fun

 

yiu all know I do not take myself seriously: hence the Mr. Potato head avatar

 

I don't think it's case of not knowing what you are saying, I think it's more a difference of opinion sometimes.  Do you want other posters to never reply to your posts because they are just for fun?

 

As I mentioned before, fan is short for fanatic so we take this business of building the Montreal Canadiens seriously. It's a bit of an obsession.  Perhaps that's not a healthy thing but it has been part of my DNA for a lot of years now, not likely to change anytime soon. 

 

My posts get challenged sometimes.  Sometimes it's because someone has a different opinion and sometimes it's because I didn't do my homework.  That's the way it works. 

[tomh009]

29 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I think you are right

Hugo runs a tight ship!

[huzer]

I don’t understand how trading for depth to bolster the roster AND embracing the tank is possible. It also goes against a rebuild as what are you going to trade to acquire NHL depth while not sacrificing youth and draft picks?  I think it’s been very apparent from the start that management had a direction for the season and they would be sticking to it. 

 

I don’t mind rational discussion and disagreeing. But it’s hard to have that rational discussion when the bullet points you have outlined don’t align with the overall message. Your post reads like “I want them to tank, but not really., and here are the steps I would take to make them better.”

Just to make my overall position clear: I don’t believe the older veteran core is sufficient to make the Habs a competitive team. I don’t believe the current youth is sufficient to make the Habs a competitive team. I believe regardless of effort the Habs will continue to post poor results for the remainder of the season. Knowing that, they should make every effort to secure additional draft capital, move out existing veterans when possible, and minimize trading for contracts with any amount of significant term. Failing to do THAT is a mark against management, for me. I’m no situation should the Habs be “buyers” of any sort.

 

 

 

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, huzer said:

I don’t understand how trading for depth to bolster the roster AND embracing the tank is possible. It also goes against a rebuild as what are you going to trade to acquire NHL depth while not sacrificing youth and draft picks?  I think it’s been very apparent from the start that management had a direction for the season and they would be sticking to it. 

 

I don’t mind rational discussion and disagreeing. But it’s hard to have that rational discussion when the bullet points you have outlined don’t align with the overall message. Your post reads like “I want them to tank, but not really., and here are the steps I would take to make them better.”

Just to make my overall position clear: I don’t believe the older veteran core is sufficient to make the Habs a competitive team. I don’t believe the current youth is sufficient to make the Habs a competitive team. I believe regardless of effort the Habs will continue to post poor results for the remainder of the season. Knowing that, they should make every effort to secure additional draft capital, move out existing veterans when possible, and minimize trading for contracts with any amount of significant term. Failing to do THAT is a mark against management, for me. I’m no situation should the Habs be “buyers” of any sort.

 

 

 

 

Agreed 100%.

 

The team is not going to trade for depth to replace the injured players during a tanking season... not here or not in Laval.  You can call up the players from Laval when needed and they can sign ECHl players on PTOs to fill the lineup.  But no way we should give up assets to plug holes.