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Tank Hard for Bedard (as heard on TSN690)


alfredoh2009

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48 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I believe that once the Habs trade away any expiring UFAs, they will dive down the standings. I would not be surprised they shut down some players like Gallagher or Guhle if they are not 100% healthy

Arizona, Vancouver, SJS, will slide a lot more than us if they move a few of their rumoured players like Chychrun, Gotisbihere, Boeser, Schenn, Meier, and potentially even Karlsson. The only core guy that matters that we may love is Anderson. I’d add Edmondson, but he’s been out anyways. Guhle has also been out for a long time, and frankly, losing Gallagher isn’t going to really hurt much.

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38 minutes ago, Neech said:

Awful result last night with San Jose giving up the losing goal with 16 seconds left in the 3rd. I still think we have a tough enough schedule in March to crack the bottom 5 in the league.

 

We seem to be able to give the good teams trouble (ie. Toronto) so I don't think we are diving too much, 3 game winning streaks don't help. 

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1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Arizona, Vancouver, SJS, will slide a lot more than us if they move a few of their rumoured players like Chychrun, Gotisbihere, Boeser, Schenn, Meier, and potentially even Karlsson. The only core guy that matters that we may love is Anderson. I’d add Edmondson, but he’s been out anyways. Guhle has also been out for a long time, and frankly, losing Gallagher isn’t going to really hurt much.

Arizona is already not playing Chychrun — and still winning games.

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5 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Arizona, Vancouver, SJS, will slide a lot more than us if they move a few of their rumoured players like Chychrun, Gotisbihere, Boeser, Schenn, Meier, and potentially even Karlsson. The only core guy that matters that we may love is Anderson. I’d add Edmondson, but he’s been out anyways. Guhle has also been out for a long time, and frankly, losing Gallagher isn’t going to really hurt much.


you are probably right. IMHO Habs finish between 5th worst and 10th worst

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11 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

you are probably right. IMHO Habs finish between 5th worst and 10th worst

 

Come on lottery balls!

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  • 2 weeks later...

from what I read, Gorton was branded as very lucky on the draft lottery or with his picks. I am counting on his luck more than the Habs loosing

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

from what I read, Gorton was branded as very lucky on the draft lottery or with his picks. I am counting on his luck more than the Habs loosing


I get the vibe that Gorton is a very opinionated and informed with everything he does. 
 

He knows what he wants due to his own research and philosophy and he is bold enough to go for it. 
 

We will find out if Gorton is indeed lucky or if he is really good. 

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Luck is definitely part of building a contender, just as it is part of winning the Cup. All it takes is one career-compromising injury to a key piece (bad luck), or for a lottery ball to take a hard bounce your way (good luck).  

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43 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Luck is definitely part of building a contender, just as it is part of winning the Cup. All it takes is one career-compromising injury to a key piece (bad luck), or for a lottery ball to take a hard bounce your way (good luck).  

 

I get what you are saying, but it was more caustic as an evaluation of Gorton's work in NYR were some where saying he was more lucky than good.

I don;t want to get the quote to open that can of worms, I just want Hugh-Gort to get lucky

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29 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I get what you are saying, but it was more caustic as an evaluation of Gorton's work in NYR were some where saying he was more lucky than good.

I don;t want to get the quote to open that can of worms, I just want Hugh-Gort to get lucky

Chiarelli was lucky with the lottery ball in getting McDavid in a year that the #1 pick was obvious, and a can’t miss generational player.  Was he also a good GM? For the most part he made horrible moves. That isn’t the case with Gorton m.

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

After the Canucks’ caning of the Leafs last night they are now only one point behind, same number of games—and 31st in strength of schedule.

 

The Canucks have had a historically bad save percentage this year. Now Demko is back and on form. I suspect they will pass us in the standings.

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  • 2 weeks later...

With seven straight losses and a tough sked ahead, are certainly collapsing at the right time. Right now we look to be very well-positioned to end up in the bottom five, burbling at around a 10% of bagging Bedard. “Catching” CBJ, CHI, and SJ may be implausible, but 4th worst is realistic.

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Ducks since the All Star Break: 6-6-5 - 17 pts

Habs since the All Star Break:  6-8-2 -  14 pts

 

The Ducks need to outpace the Habs by 5 pts over the last 15 games. Despite the Habs 7 game slide (in which they managed 2 pts due to OTL), the Ducks only outpaced them by 3. 

 

Post TDL:

Ducks: 2-1-2 - 6 pts

Habs: 0-4-2 - 2 pts

 

Not impossible, but it'll be close. I had thought they would be comfortably 4th, but think they'll end up 5th.

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I disagree how they have added % points to the 32nd team, but the rankings are right.

 

Habs will have a top-5 draft in all the rounds this year, That bodes well for the 2nd and 3rd round picks too.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I disagree how they have added % points to the 32nd team, but the rankings are right.

 

Habs will have a top-5 draft in all the rounds this year, That bodes well for the 2nd and 3rd round picks too.

 

The added percentage points to 32nd is correct.  Picks 12 through 16 can't pick first overall since the limit a team can move up is ten spots.  Accordingly, those percentage points go to 32nd as if a team holding the 12th-16th pick wins the first lottery, the 32nd team locks in first overall.

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A look at the worst ten teams right now, and based on Actial goal sminus expected goal differential, there seems to be little chance of the Habs finishg lower (best draft chance)

image.png

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9 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

The added percentage points to 32nd is correct.  Picks 12 through 16 can't pick first overall since the limit a team can move up is ten spots.  Accordingly, those percentage points go to 32nd as if a team holding the 12th-16th pick wins the first lottery, the 32nd team locks in first overall.

 

I see, I was wrong... went to check the actual odds: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

image.png

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11 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

The added percentage points to 32nd is correct.  Picks 12 through 16 can't pick first overall since the limit a team can move up is ten spots.  Accordingly, those percentage points go to 32nd as if a team holding the 12th-16th pick wins the first lottery, the 32nd team locks in first overall.

 

 

Did the NHL make further changes?

 

When announcing the 2022 draft lottery odds the NHL referenced their 2021 lottery rules changes announcement, in which they said "The reduction to two drawings ensures that the team that finishes last in the NHL standings would pick no lower than No. 3." 

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