Tank Hard for Bedard (as heard on TSN690)

[DON]

2 minutes ago, Neech said:

If Dach is a top six winger and not a centre, we still won that trade big time. 

Not really, if the 1st round pick traded for him (Nazar) is a superstar centre in 5 years.

[TurdBurglar]

3 minutes ago, DON said:

Not really, if the 1st round pick traded for him (Nazar) is a superstar centre in 5 years.

Dach being a top-6 forward was and still is more a a sure thing than Nazar.  I’m not saying Nazar isn’t or won’t be a top-forward, but in this situation Dach was less of a gamble at the time.

 

What we do know for certain is the Habs needed Dach more than Romanov.

[Neech]

12 minutes ago, DON said:

Not really, if the 1st round pick traded for him (Nazar) is a superstar centre in 5 years.

 

What are the odds for that?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, Neech said:

 

What are the odds for that?

 

Dunno, but the merit of the trade will indeed ultimately hinge on how Lazar performs. 

[hab29RETIRED]

3 hours ago, Neech said:

I love the idea of Dubois at second line C going forward, provided he takes a bit of a hometown discount coming off a strong UFA year.

 

If Dach is a top six winger and not a centre, we still won that trade big time. 

We won’t know that for another 3 years. Depends on if Nazar becomes an NHL centre, and how good of a centre Nazar turns out to be.

[Sir_Boagalott]

4 hours ago, Neech said:

I love the idea of Dubois at second line C going forward, provided he takes a bit of a hometown discount coming off a strong UFA year.

 

 

 

I like the idea of Dubois as 2nd C with Monahabs on the wing. 

 

I'm not worried about a him taking a hometown discount because his contract asks are very reasonable.  He easily could have got 7+ mil but asked for 6 and his other contracts have been similar value.  That seems to be one of the best thing about him - he isn't greedy in that sense. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Dunno, but the merit of the trade will indeed ultimately hinge on how Lazar performs. 

 

You are assuming that Montreal would have drafted Nazar had they kept the pick. They might have drafted someone else. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

You are assuming that Montreal would have drafted Nazar had they kept the pick. They might have drafted someone else. 

 

Yes, but the thought that they might have drafted the wrong guy is hardly a consolation. The bottom line is: if Nazar becomes a markedly better player than Dach, they lose the trade, because they could have had Nazar. That trade was predicated on the assumption that Dach would be equal to, or better than, whoever was drafted at 11.

[tomh009]

13 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Yes, but the thought that they might have drafted the wrong guy is hardly a consolation. The bottom line is: if Nazar becomes a markedly better player than Dach, they lose the trade, because they could have had Nazar. That trade was predicated on the assumption that Dach would be equal to, or better than, whoever was drafted at 11.

By that criterion, pretty much every single NHL team loses every single draft. Because everyone picks players, as a rule, when (ones that eventually turn out) better are available. They might make one or two great picks but everyone misses players. And the Habs are no different.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yes, but the thought that they might have drafted the wrong guy is hardly a consolation. The bottom line is: if Nazar becomes a markedly better player than Dach, they lose the trade, because they could have had Nazar. That trade was predicated on the assumption that Dach would be equal to, or better than, whoever was drafted at 11.

 

In my mind if Dach turns out to be a solid NHL player (50 - 60 point guy) then they don't lose the trade no matter what Nazar does in Chicago. If Dach doesn't turn out to be a solid NHL player then they lose the trade no matter what Nazar does in Chicago.  It's hard to compare a known (Dach) with you they may have drafted but you do expect a solid NHL player with the 13 pick.  That's the way I look at it.  The trade could be a win/win if Dach plays well and Nazar turns out to be a solid NHL player. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

By that criterion, pretty much every single NHL team loses every single draft. Because everyone picks players, as a rule, when (ones that eventually turn out) better are available. They might make one or two great picks but everyone misses players. And the Habs are no different.

 

Agreed, that's like saying Montreal lost the trade if Ostlund, Lekkerimaki, McGroaty etc. turn out to be great hockey players because the Habs could have drafted them as well. We have no idea who the Habs would have taken with that pick. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

OK, so the Habs win the trade no matter what, even if Nazar become a 200-point player who they could have drafted otherwise. Got it 🙄

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 minute ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

OK, so the Habs win the trade no matter what, even if Nazar become a 200-point player who they could have drafted otherwise. Got it 🙄

 

That's not what we are saying at all. If Dach doesn't turn out then it was a bad trade. If Dach turns out to be a solid NHL player then it was a good trade.  Sometimes a trade can be a win/win, lose/lose (if neither turn out) or a win/lose. Who knows what player the Habs would have drafted.  

[tomh009]

For what it’s worth, a player picked somewhere in the 10-12 range has something like a 70% probability of playing 100+ NHL games. Probability of a first-line player is significantly less than that.

 

Hughes saw Dach’s probabilities as significantly better than that.

[alfredoh2009]

Dach is a legit top-6 winger 

 

He may turn out to be a good center, much like when Drouin was tried as C

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

We won’t know that for another 3 years. Depends on if Nazar becomes an NHL centre, and how good of a centre Nazar turns out to be.

There is also the factor of where Dach and Nazar are in their development when the Habs are ready to win ... Nazar has yet to even play this season for Michigan ... he may well (likely?) be a rookie no earlier than 24/25, which may well (hopefully will) be a playoff-bound team, or at least in a dogfight for the playoffs.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Overall, the Habs's situation may be more “existential” than we fully realize. Here’s what I mean:

 

Anderson/Edmundson are by far our most valuable trade chips. But if we trade them, we weaken the current group in a major way.

 

And if/when we move out Monahan, Drouin, and Dandonov, we will also create significant roster holes that will need to be filled somehow. Right now those guys, no matter how badly the latter two suck, are better than any alternative within the organization. So the team will only get worse with their departure. 

 

We can replace some or all of these players with UFAs, yes. But then you risk taking on more contracts that will be getting in the way when your next wave of youth is coming up. 

 

Absent UFAs, we could be looking at a situation next season where we’re throwing a bunch of rookie FW into the fire in much the same way we’re doing with the D this season. If we have a bunch of great FW prospects banging on the door, then we can do this and still ice a competitive team. I’m no prospect expert, but it’s not clear to me that we do have such a crop of FW prospects.

 

Management may therefore end up facing a choice: is this a real, hard-core, multi-year rebuild? Are we prepared to have this team be even worse next season, and probably a year or two thereafter?

 

If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you ship guys out and don’t replace with UFAs. 

 

If the answer is ‘no,’ then you keep Edmundson at the very least, and probably Anderson too, and maybe look at re-signing Monahan, if he’s interested. You also aren’t too motivated on Hoffman/Gally, since they are at least veteran bodies who can take shifts, and Gally does some things even if he’s not productive.

 

I am not sure Montreal fans are in fact truly prepared for, like, three more seasons of awfulness. The sheer fun of this team over October/November papered over the harder realities of a full-on, all-in rebuild. 

 

It’ll be interesting.

 

[tomh009]

10 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

And if/when we move out Monahan, Drouin, and Dandonov, we will also create significant roster holes that will need to be filled somehow. Right now those guys, no matter how badly the latter two suck, are better than any alternative within the organization. So the team will only get worse with their departure. 

 

We can replace some or all of these players with UFAs, yes. But then you risk taking on more contracts that will be getting in the way when your next wave of youth is coming up.

For Drouin and Dadonov, I am confident that Richard and Ylonen would be an upgrade next season. Beyond them, though, should Hugo move Hoffman or Anderson, the choices are more slim. Roy, Mesar, Mysak, Farrell probably not ready yet, the latter maybe the closest (assuming he wants to sign).

 

Beyond that, they might need to look on the waiver wire again. I really don't see them doing any significant UFA signings, though they could look to sign an aging veteran as they did with Perry a few years ago.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

39 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Overall, the Habs's situation may be more “existential” than we fully realize. Here’s what I mean:

 

Anderson/Edmundson are by far our most valuable trade chips. But if we trade them, we weaken the current group in a major way.

 

And if/when we move out Monahan, Drouin, and Dandonov, we will also create significant roster holes that will need to be filled somehow. Right now those guys, no matter how badly the latter two suck, are better than any alternative within the organization. So the team will only get worse with their departure. 

 

We can replace some or all of these players with UFAs, yes. But then you risk taking on more contracts that will be getting in the way when your next wave of youth is coming up. 

 

Absent UFAs, we could be looking at a situation next season where we’re throwing a bunch of rookie FW into the fire in much the same way we’re doing with the D this season. If we have a bunch of great FW prospects banging on the door, then we can do this and still ice a competitive team. I’m no prospect expert, but it’s not clear to me that we do have such a crop of FW prospects.

 

Management may therefore end up facing a choice: is this a real, hard-core, multi-year rebuild? Are we prepared to have this team be even worse next season, and probably a year or two thereafter?

 

If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you ship guys out and don’t replace with UFAs. 

 

If the answer is ‘no,’ then you keep Edmundson at the very least, and probably Anderson too, and maybe look at re-signing Monahan, if he’s interested. You also aren’t too motivated on Hoffman/Gally, since they are at least veteran bodies who can take shifts, and Gally does some things even if he’s not productive.

 

I am not sure Montreal fans are in fact truly prepared for, like, three more seasons of awfulness. The sheer fun of this team over October/November papered over the harder realities of a full-on, all-in rebuild. 

 

It’ll be interesting.

 

This draft can change our trajectory in a major way…if things work out 

 

I expect Dubois to be our second line centre after next season and that is a major hole filled. 
 

Pie in the sky optimism required but we could add Bedard and Fantilli next season - if everything works out perfect. 
 

My expectations are one more poor year followed by a playoff team thereafter. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

16 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

This draft can change our trajectory in a major way…if things work out 

 

I expect Dubois to be our second line centre after next season and that is a major hole filled. 
 

Pie in the sky optimism required but we could add Bedard and Fantilli next season - if everything works out perfect. 
 

My expectations are one more poor year followed by a playoff team thereafter. 

 

We're not getting Bedard without some crazy lottery luck.

 

Being guaranteed a top-10 pick and quite possibly a top-5, we should be able to get an impact prospect, although not necessarily one who is NHL ready. Of course, Slaf wasn't NHL ready either and we still threw him into the mix, so who knows, we might make the same stupid decision with our top 2023 pick.

 

Given how things are playing out, it might well make sense to go all-in on Dubois. On an 8-year deal he'd be 33 when it expires and would likely still be a solid player at that point. Whether the $8 mil it would probably take is a wise use of cap space, that's another question. But he and Slick Nick down the middle would certainly sort out C for an entire generation of Habs.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

We're not getting Bedard without some crazy lottery luck.

 

Being guaranteed a top-10 pick and quite possibly a top-5, we should be able to get an impact prospect, although not necessarily one who is NHL ready. Of course, Slaf wasn't NHL ready either and we still threw him into the mix, so who knows, we might make the same stupid decision with our top 2023 pick.

 

Given how things are playing out, it might well make sense to go all-in on Dubois. On an 8-year deal he'd be 33 when it expires and would likely still be a solid player at that point. Whether the $8 mil it would probably take is a wise use of cap space, that's another question. But he and Slick Nick down the middle would certainly sort out C for an entire generation of Habs.

 

Agree with all your points.  Getting Bedard will take a lot of luck so I will not spend too much time dreaming about it although it is a nice fantasy. If they don't get an impact center in this draft then Dubois becomes a consideration as Nick will need help down the middle. 

[DON]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

We're not getting Bedard without some crazy lottery luck.

 

I think so also, but Habs are making a push for bottom 5 finish. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

53 minutes ago, DON said:

 

I think so also, but Habs are making a push for bottom 5 finish. 

 

Perhaps, but bottom 3 is quite unlikely. Anaheim has surprised me this year. Last year they looked like an up and coming team, they had 13 more points than New Jersey last year.  Look at the difference this year between them and the Devils. Goes to show that things can change drastically between one year and the next. I still think the Devils may not make the playoffs despite a great start. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I don’t think finishing bottom 5 is out of the question at all. This team doesn’t look very good and trades that will make us worse are surely coming. 

 

Not to mention the rough schedule for the second half of the season. 
 

Then it’s a simple 20% chance at Bedard (or is it 25% for bottom 4?). 

 

 

[tomh009]

17 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Then it’s a simple 20% chance at Bedard (or is it 25% for bottom 4?).

 Lottery percentages:
32nd: 25.5 / 18.8 / 55.7

31st: 13.5 / 14.4 / 32.0 / 40.2

30th: 11.5 / 11.5 / 7.4/ 40.7 / 28.8

29th: 9.5 / 9.8 / 0.0 / 15.4 / 44.9 / 20.5

28th: 8.5/ 8.8 / 0.0 /0 .0 / 24.5 / 44.2 / 13.9