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Our strengths and weaknesses have flip-flopped!


REV-G

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It's interesting how what once was a strength could become or has become a weakness and how what was once our weakness now seems to be a strength. 

 

Marc Bergevin said it's very hard to find centers. Nobody's giving them up he said. They're hard to find. Kent Hughes found some. Now we have a plethora of centres and it seems like it will not be a weakness for us for many years. 

 

We seemed to be getting older a few years ago and now we are a very young team slowly moving out or losing veteran players we once depended on. 

 

Goaltending has been our strength for quite a few years. Now when we look down the pipe we see a void, a lack, a weakness perhaps. 

 

So my question is what do we do with our goaltending. I don't think this coming year is a problem since it will be a development year and if we lose and have a chance at the first or second pick, better yet while our young guys develop. 

 

But there are some teams around the league, Toronto being one, who never seemed to solve their goaltending problem and personally I think it's going to be a major problem for them this year. Great forwards but goaltending could be their archilles heel.

 

We have to find our goalie of the future. Is Primeau the guy? Is one of our drafted prospects the guy. Or are we still in the hunt?

 

How do you think we turn this weakness into a strength?  

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Well, I have been posting for the last few seasons that the Habs need to draft higher a goaltender: to dedicate significant money in scouting elite goal tending


I do not think development is the only way to get great goalies; I believe that increasing the odds that one of the goalies in the pipeline turns out to be “the one” is also a necessary part of the strategy

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Well, I have been posting for the last few seasons that the Habs need to draft higher a goaltender: to dedicate significant money in scouting elite goal tending


I do not think development is the only way to get great goalies; I believe that increasing the odds that one of the goalies in the pipeline turns out to be “the one” is also a necessary part of the strategy

 

Agree. There seems to be a certain attitude of fatalism around developing goalies (“voodoo”), and it certainly has not been an organizational priority. I was saying a few years ago that we needed to start getting serious about finding Price’s successor. Characteristically, Bergevin seems to have been unbothered, preferring to assume that his darlings will be at their peak forever (assumptions he made with Weber, Price, and Gallagher).

 

I am pretty confident that Primeau is not “the guy.” You know something? When you find The Guy it is usually pretty obvious. E.g., in Vancouver, they knew Demko was golden from the very beginning, just as we did with Price. Primeau, who has never shown a thing, is wishful thinking.

 

2 hours ago, REV-G said:

It's interesting how what once was a strength could become or has become a weakness and how what was once our weakness now seems to be a strength. 

 

Marc Bergevin said it's very hard to find centers. Nobody's giving them up he said. They're hard to find. Kent Hughes found some. Now we have a plethora of centres and it seems like it will not be a weakness for us for many years. 

 

We seemed to be getting older a few years ago and now we are a very young team slowly moving out or losing veteran players we once depended on. 

 

Goaltending has been our strength for quite a few years. Now when we look down the pipe we see a void, a lack, a weakness perhaps. 

 

So my question is what do we do with our goaltending. I don't think this coming year is a problem since it will be a development year and if we lose and have a chance at the first or second pick, better yet while our young guys develop. 

 

But there are some teams around the league, Toronto being one, who never seemed to solve their goaltending problem and personally I think it's going to be a major problem for them this year. Great forwards but goaltending could be their archilles heel.

 

We have to find our goalie of the future. Is Primeau the guy? Is one of our drafted prospects the guy. Or are we still in the hunt?

 

How do you think we turn this weakness into a strength?  

 

I would caution against assuming the C position is solved for years to come. That assumes that Dach (who remains unsigned) is going to pan out. If he doesn’t, we’re right back in the crapper at C, with a 1A (Suzuki) and a bunch of bottom-6 guys.

 

The importance of the Dach acquisition seems to have gone somewhat under the radar. We gave up either Romanov or a 13th-overall pick for him. That is a significant organizational investment. This was their big play to fix our organizational hole at C. If it doesn’t work out, that could become a structural problem with the rebuild and, along with goaltending, could be the difference between success and failure. A lot is depending on Mr. Dach.

 

 

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We have Florida's 1st round pick this year which should be at 20 plus if they don't get knocked out in the 1st round.  not sure how good the depth is but if the top goaltender isn't taken at the point were we're picking with Florida's pick i would take the top goaltender in next year's draft with that pick. 

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1 hour ago, Habsfan89 said:

We have Florida's 1st round pick this year which should be at 20 plus if they don't get knocked out in the 1st round.  not sure how good the depth is but if the top goaltender isn't taken at the point were we're picking with Florida's pick i would take the top goaltender in next year's draft with that pick. 

 

But what if there isn't a goalie worth taking at that slot?  Reaching for a goalie to say you're the first team to take a goalie isn't worth it if there isn't one worth taking in the first round.  The top goalies picked often don't wind up being the top goalies of the draft (which is why teams hesitate to take them in the first round unless they're rated as sure-fire starters).  

 

Having said that, I think there's a goalie that might crack the first round in Scott Ratzlaff but it's still too early to tell there.

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3 hours ago, REV-G said:

We have to find our goalie of the future. Is Primeau the guy? Is one of our drafted prospects the guy. Or are we still in the hunt?

 

How do you think we turn this weakness into a strength?  

 

I think their plan, if not their hope, is to have a platoon situation down the road.  The starter plays 45 games and the backup 37 or something like that.  That's the most cost-efficient model which is what teams are trending towards.  Right now, I'd guess their hope internally is that Dobes would be the 45-game guy and Primeau the 37-gamer.  That's a cost-controllable duo which would allow them to then spend more on scoring help or a defensive upgrade.

 

Is that a viable plan?  It could be but it's certainly risky.  I think Primeau can still become an NHL backup and Dobes is a very intriguing project - if they can get him more technically refined, he's a legitimate NHL prospect.  Maybe it's just some bias from the few times I saw him last season but every time I watched him, I came away thinking there's some real upside.

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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

But what if there isn't a goalie worth taking at that slot?  Reaching for a goalie to say you're the first team to take a goalie isn't worth it if there isn't one worth taking in the first round.  The top goalies picked often don't wind up being the top goalies of the draft (which is why teams hesitate to take them in the first round unless they're rated as sure-fire starters).  

 

Having said that, I think there's a goalie that might crack the first round in Scott Ratzlaff but it's still too early to tell there.

If their isn't one worth taking with Florida's pick and they think they can get one with our 2nd round pick the do so. 
 

With that being said I think when we do draft a goaltender it has to be in the first our 2nd round and they have to be a blue chip prospect. Not gamble on a goaltender in the 6th or 7th round. 

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Toronto is the perfect example of a team with a goalie problem that has tried to solve it in the UFA market - with mediocre results. 
 

Florida tried the big name UFA and that didn’t work out well…so far. 
 

Then you have teams like old Detroit or Chicago who both won cups with average goaltending. 
 

I don’t think the Habs want to spend the kind of cap on a future goalie that they are spending on Price either. 
 

All considered I think Brian’s tandem solution might be the way of our future. I wouldn’t doubt if Allen gets extended to be part of the tandem. 

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49 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

... All considered I think Brian’s tandem solution might be the way of our future. I wouldn’t doubt if Allen gets extended to be part of the tandem. 

 

If traded at/near the deadline, Allen could also be re-signed next summer.

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23 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

If traded at/near the deadline, Allen could also be re-signed next summer.

I would be shocked if Allen gets re-signed.  It's nothing against him either.  If he has a stellar year, his value goes up and Habs get a good return for him.  I don't see him being a starting goalie for multiple years on a contending team.  For that reason I don't see the Habs offering him a contract with money and term, when they could pick another goalie up in free agency or a trade. 

 

The only scenario I see Allen re-signing is on a similar cheap contract.  He's a steal with his current contract, so if they can get a similar deal worked out, they would be silly not to re-sign him.

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29 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

I would be shocked if Allen gets re-signed.  It's nothing against him either.  If he has a stellar year, his value goes up and Habs get a good return for him.  I don't see him being a starting goalie for multiple years on a contending team.  For that reason I don't see the Habs offering him a contract with money and term, when they could pick another goalie up in free agency or a trade. 

 

The only scenario I see Allen re-signing is on a similar cheap contract.  He's a steal with his current contract, so if they can get a similar deal worked out, they would be silly not to re-sign him.

If, once "ready to win", HuGo look for a couple of goalies to be part of the sort of 37-45 game split that Brian suggested, both goalies will IMO cost more than what Allen makes now (unless one is on an ELC) ... he signed as a 20-25 game Price backup with Carey coming off a 58-game season (and 66 the season before that).

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Look around the league, most goalies are third round picks or later in their draft.  I still like the team philosophy of quantity.  Take a bunch and one will develop. 

 

In New York, Under Gorton, Shesterkin was a 4th rounder, and Georgiev was an undrafted free agent. 

 

Our other Vezina Finalists.

 

Saros was a fourth rounder

 

Markstrom was a first rounder (31st overall).  The panthers thought he was a bust and gave up on him and he blossomed in vancouver. 

 

The final four goalies this year. 

 

Kuemper was a 6th rounder, and Francouz was undrafted

Vasilevskiy is a first round stud. 

Smith was a 5th rounder and then Shesterkin for the Rangers.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I can see Allen on a two year deal for the same $. I wouldn’t be surprised at all. 
 

Primeau and Monty fight for the other half of the tandem.

 

If you're Allen, wouldn't you want to sign for similar money on a team with an eye on winning in the short term?  Unless he and his family really like the market and want to stay, it'd make more sense for him to go sign on as a second goalie on a contender over being a 1A guy on a team that is a couple of years away from pushing for a playoff spot.

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11 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

If you're Allen, wouldn't you want to sign for similar money on a team with an eye on winning in the short term?  Unless he and his family really like the market and want to stay, it'd make more sense for him to go sign on as a second goalie on a contender over being a 1A guy on a team that is a couple of years away from pushing for a playoff spot.

 

 

Agreed ... beyond the possibility that he and his family really like Montreal, the Habs advantage may be that if HuGo see him as part of a 1A/1B tandem going forward then they may be willing to offer slightly more term (3-4 vs 1-2).

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47 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

If you're Allen, wouldn't you want to sign for similar money on a team with an eye on winning in the short term?  Unless he and his family really like the market and want to stay, it'd make more sense for him to go sign on as a second goalie on a contender over being a 1A guy on a team that is a couple of years away from pushing for a playoff spot.


Allen signed his current short term contract and he certainly could have signed elsewhere. 
 

Your logic makes sense of course but I figured if he signed one short term then maybe he will again 

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59 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Allen signed his current short term contract and he certainly could have signed elsewhere. 
 

Your logic makes sense of course but I figured if he signed one short term then maybe he will again 

 

I wouldn't be shocked if he signs another short-term deal (two or three years).  That's more or less the market for goalies like him.  But it's a different situation now than when he signed his current contract.  Back then, the Habs were coming off knocking off Pittsburgh in the qualifying round and holding their own against Philly in the bubble.  It was a veteran team with eyes on winning in the short term so he was viewing Montreal as that type of win-now team.  That clearly isn't the case now. 

 

If he's open to signing, he's someone I think they'd work out a deal with now.  They only have three retention slots to work with at the deadline so they're not moving all of their UFAs.  If he wants another two-year deal and is okay with being a bridge goalie so to speak, I think Hughes would happily get a contract done with him.

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I liked @The Chicoutimi Cucumber's comment from another thread where he said something to the effect of the Habs seem to pull goalies out of thin air when they need one.  Hopefully, Hughes can do that too.  i.e. what teams have a semi decent G that has 1 year left of their contract that the Habs might be able to acquire?  Trade 1-2 forwards to get him. 

 

Regarding strengths and weaknesses, the Habs PP used to be a strength as was their PK, but for the last several years both have been weakness.  I'm still thinking if they move a forward out they should try to get Kessel because he'd be cheap and would improve their PP.  Gorton was the GM that drafted him.  Plus, he's a seasoned vet and could teach the youngins a thing or two while he's around.  I haven't really seen anybody else suggesting how they could easily improve their PP.

 

edit: d'oh, I just noticed Kessel was signed by Vegas. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Agree. There seems to be a certain attitude of fatalism around developing goalies (“voodoo”), and it certainly has not been an organizational priority. I was saying a few years ago that we needed to start getting serious about finding Price’s successor. Characteristically, Bergevin seems to have been unbothered, preferring to assume that his darlings will be at their peak forever (assumptions he made with Weber, Price, and Gallagher).

 

I am pretty confident that Primeau is not “the guy.” You know something? When you find The Guy it is usually pretty obvious. E.g., in Vancouver, they knew Demko was golden from the very beginning, just as we did with Price. Primeau, who has never shown a thing, is wishful thinking.

[...]

 

MB was a player's GM, he often said that "the solution was in the room" and held on too tight to draft picks and players.

I am skeptical that he didn't know how close to being done Price and Weber were. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt on a few things, but his downfall was to trust that trio you mention could play through the pain as long as a cup was within reach.

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4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

MB was a player's GM, he often said that "the solution was in the room" and held on too tight to draft picks and players.

I am skeptical that he didn't know how close to being done Price and Weber were. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt on a few things, but his downfall was to trust that trio you mention could play through the pain as long as a cup was within reach.


I think many fans thought Bergevin went all in because he needed a new contract. 
 

Interesting idea (and you might be right) that MB instead realized that his two best players were almost done so he pushed his chips in. The moves he made were very un-Bergevin like including the cap headache he created. 
 

Bergevin’s plan came within 3 games and regardless of how a fan feels about MB, he deserves credit for his moves. 

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Based on what's being said here, I think we go with what we've got. If we end up lucking out or finding a true 1st that can play 60 games and do well like some of the elites have, then that will be the tandem. But if we don't have that guy we go with a platoon system and we've seen that teams can win with that kind of goaltending. 

 

I presume if we end up with the latter we'd better have a very good top 4 d-men. 

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11 minutes ago, REV-G said:

I presume if we end up with the latter we'd better have a very good top 4 d-men. 

We are aways from this.

But, fingers crossed that Guhle-Barron-Harris-Xhekaj all turn out to be solid d-men.

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11 minutes ago, DON said:

We are aways from this.

But, fingers crossed that Guhle-Barron-Harris-Mailloux Xhekaj all turn out to be solid d-men.

 

corrected that for you :P

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4 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


I think many fans thought Bergevin went all in because he needed a new contract. 
 

Interesting idea (and you might be right) that MB instead realized that his two best players were almost done so he pushed his chips in. The moves he made were very un-Bergevin like including the cap headache he created. 
 

Bergevin’s plan came within 3 games and regardless of how a fan feels about MB, he deserves credit for his moves. 

 

Actually, I agree with this. I always gave Bergevin full marks for - miraculously - giving Price and Weber a legitimate chance to win a Cup within their window. His bold GMing in the summer of 2020 did more than anything else to make that happen.

 

When I said that he seemed to view his favourite players as eternal, I was thinking more about contracts. He happily acquired probably the worst contract in hockey with Shea Weber, who was on the books for $7 mil per year until age 42 (!!). Only the horrible miracle of Weber’s devastating injuries saved the Habs from years and years of cap hell: sheer luck, in other words. He also doled out long-term contracts to Byron, Price and Gallagher, and while I don’t blame him on the Price deal, everyone knew Gallagher’s contract was going to be a disaster - a necessity only because MB’s dismal drafting/development afforded zero hope of being able to replace Gally from within. But the press conference, where MB got choked up over Gally’s wonderfulness, reinforced the idea that MB simply did not think about the long term implications of his decisions.

 

 

1 hour ago, REV-G said:

Based on what's being said here, I think we go with what we've got. If we end up lucking out or finding a true 1st that can play 60 games and do well like some of the elites have, then that will be the tandem. But if we don't have that guy we go with a platoon system and we've seen that teams can win with that kind of goaltending. 

 

I presume if we end up with the latter we'd better have a very good top 4 d-men. 

 

The future looks promising on D. Regarding a goalie platoon, how many Cup winners have actually used a platoon system in nets during the playoffs? Other than Colorado - ?

 

Anyway: carry on.

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Actually, I agree with this. I always gave Bergevin full marks for - miraculously - giving Price and Weber a legitimate chance to win a Cup within their window. His bold GMing in the summer of 2020 did more than anything else to make that happen.

 

When I said that he seemed to view his favourite players as eternal, I was thinking more about contracts. He happily acquired probably the worst contract in hockey with Shea Weber, who was on the books for $7 mil per year until age 42 (!!). Only the horrible miracle of Weber’s devastating injuries saved the Habs from years and years of cap hell: sheer luck, in other words. He also doled out long-term contracts to Byron, Price and Gallagher, and while I don’t blame him on the Price deal, everyone knew Gallagher’s contract was going to be a disaster - a necessity only because MB’s dismal drafting/development afforded zero hope of being able to replace Gally from within. But the press conference, where MB got choked up over Gally’s wonderfulness, reinforced the idea that MB simply did not think about the long term implications of his decisions.

 

 

 

The future looks promising on D. Regarding a goalie platoon, how many Cup winners have actually used a platoon system in nets during the playoffs? Other than Colorado - ?

 

Anyway: carry on.

 

Pittsburgh used three different starters in winning the cup. 

 

Chicago platooned goalies on one of their cups with Darling getting starts. 

 

Most of the recent cup winning teams have had starters who played 50 or so games in the regular season and then took the reigns as a number one in the playoffs. 

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