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tomh009

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Wonder if Carter Hart is part of that rebuild?

 

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3 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

Wonder if Carter Hart is part of that rebuild?

 

It depends on how sold they are on Samuel Ersson and if they think they'll actually be able to get Ivan Fedotov over next season.  I don't think Ersson is a true starter just yet and Fedotov almost certainly is going to sign back in the KHL after the military fiasco so I don't think they can really move on from Hart just yet.  I know it's a popular theory out there but he's 24.  24-year-olds shouldn't be too old to be part of a rebuild.

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22 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

It depends on how sold they are on Samuel Ersson and if they think they'll actually be able to get Ivan Fedotov over next season.  I don't think Ersson is a true starter just yet and Fedotov almost certainly is going to sign back in the KHL after the military fiasco so I don't think they can really move on from Hart just yet.  I know it's a popular theory out there but he's 24.  24-year-olds shouldn't be too old to be part of a rebuild.

I think Carter Hart is not going to escape from the WJ scandal. So they may not have a choice but to move on.

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3 hours ago, Plutarch said:

I think Carter Hart is not going to escape from the WJ scandal. So they may not have a choice but to move on.

 

He's denied involvement.... which of course doesn't prove anything, but when you compare that to Formenton, who hasnt denied involvement and didn't re-sign with the Sens, i think we can read into it at least a little. 

 

Remember the roster is 23 players and it is 8 who are accused, so the majority of the roster wasn't involved. 

 

Its obviously a horrible situation and I think anyone who was involved should get the Formenton treatment, there are also 15 players who haven't even been accused of doing anything wrong and don't deserve any punishment.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

He's denied involvement.... which of course doesn't prove anything, but when you compare that to Formenton, who hasnt denied involvement and didn't re-sign with the Sens, i think we can read into it at least a little. 

 

Remember the roster is 23 players and it is 8 who are accused, so the majority of the roster wasn't involved. 

 

Its obviously a horrible situation and I think anyone who was involved should get the Formenton treatment, there are also 15 players who haven't even been accused of doing anything wrong and don't deserve any punishment.

Admittedly I thought he was still among the non denials.

 

That being said prior to this going public Hart had a bit of reputation out west in the junior scene...

 

I only brought it up though because I thought he hadn't denied involvement. So I won't suggest it again off junior scene rumors alone.

 

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On 3/11/2023 at 7:48 PM, alfredoh2009 said:

McDavid elite 

A generational player? How many of those are actually in the league? You can count them on one hand, and securing one is pure luck.

 

On 3/11/2023 at 7:13 PM, GHT120 said:

Agreed ... the Year-End NHL All-Star team is a reasonable objective

A more reasonable definition, I think: that's 12 players per year.

 

So, I looked at the last 10 years, to identify consistent contenders. Five teams reached the semifinals at least three times: TB six times and Chicago, NYR, Pittsburgh and Vegas three times. For those five teams, how many players with multiple all-star selections?

  • Chicago: Kane 3, Keith 2
  • NYR: Panarin 2
  • Pittsburgh: Crosby 6, Letang 2
  • TB: Hedman 6, Kucherov 4, Vasilevskiy 2
  • Vegas: None

(Apologies if I missed someone from that list)

 

But that list isn't really convincing me that a superstar will make a team into a contender, nor that it is necessary: this is not the NBA. NYR and Vegas had strong lineups but without any perennial superstars, and yet they reached the semifinals three times each, when Washington (Ovechkin 6), Edmonton (McDavid 5), Boston (Marchand 4) and others didn't manage it.

 

Yes, Tampa had three multiple all-stars and made the semifinals six times out of ten, but they are clearly the outlier.

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41 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

A generational player? How many of those are actually in the league? You can count them on one hand, and securing one is pure luck.

 

A more reasonable definition, I think: that's 12 players per year.

 

So, I looked at the last 10 years, to identify consistent contenders. Five teams reached the semifinals at least three times: TB six times and Chicago, NYR, Pittsburgh and Vegas three times. For those five teams, how many players with multiple all-star selections?

  • Chicago: Kane 3, Keith 2
  • NYR: Panarin 2
  • Pittsburgh: Crosby 6, Letang 2
  • TB: Hedman 6, Kucherov 4, Vasilevskiy 2
  • Vegas: None

(Apologies if I missed someone from that list)

 

But that list isn't really convincing me that a superstar will make a team into a contender, nor that it is necessary: this is not the NBA. NYR and Vegas had strong lineups but without any perennial superstars, and yet they reached the semifinals three times each, when Washington (Ovechkin 6), Edmonton (McDavid 5), Boston (Marchand 4) and others didn't manage it.

 

Yes, Tampa had three multiple all-stars and made the semifinals six times out of ten, but they are clearly the outlier.

 

Good analysis. You need elite talent to win, but I find that fans tend to fetishize high picks and superstars, almost *equating* them with winning. It’s quite obviously not the same thing. Matthews is close to being a generational player; how’s that working out? McDavid is all-time great and has made the semi-finals once.

 

A team like Boston puts the lie to this obsessive “high picks = superstars = winning” equation. Boston is dominating the league. Pasternak; he was a 25th overall pick. Bergeron has been the franchise glue for 15 years; he was a second-rounder. McAvoy was 14th overall…drafted at a ranking where the Habs have had multiple picks over the past decade, with mostly crap to show for it. And none of those guys are “generational players.”

 

That being said, I do worry about whether the Habs have a sufficient talent level within the system. The only heavy duty elite talent we have is Caufield. Suzuki may become a borderline elite C but thus far he has plateaued at 60 points, definitely in #1A territory. Guhle? We’ll see. Slaf? I doubt it. So this draft will be historically important in terms of the rebuild. If we can add an elite player and maybe one other core piece, that could prove huge. We don’t need a McDavid but we do need a critical mass of impact players.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

A team like Boston puts the lie to this obsessive “high picks = superstars = winning” equation.

 

 

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Yes, Tampa had three multiple all-stars and made the semifinals six times out of ten, but they are clearly the outlier.

 

 

If Tampa is an outlier then so too is Boston.

 

All that most "takers" are saying is that when a generational talent is available it would be nice to take a shot at them; and not have to hope that other teams allow a Caufield to fall to the mid-teens ... nobody that I see, despite what than tank-debunkers claim, ever suggest that one player guarantees a championship ... McDavid just proves that lucky management can't build a winner, not that it is a bad thing to have a generational talent.

 

EDIT: italicized text added for clarity of message

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3 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

If Tampa is an outlier then so too is Boston.

 

All that most "takers" are saying is that when a generational talent is available it would be nice to take a shot at them; and not have to hope that other teams allow a Caufield to fall to the mid-teens ... nobody that I see, other than tank-debunkers, ever suggest that one player guarantees a championship ... McDavid just proves that lucky management can't build a winner, not that it is a bad thing to have a generational talent.

 

yes, that is it.

A generational talent, which we did not get last season at the draft

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9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

If Tampa is an outlier then so too is Boston.

 

All that most "takers" are saying is that when a generational talent is available it would be nice to take a shot at them; and not have to hope that other teams allow a Caufield to fall to the mid-teens ... nobody that I see, other than tank-debunkers, ever suggest that one player guarantees a championship ... McDavid just proves that lucky management can't build a winner, not that it is a bad thing to have a generational talent.

 

Well, what more should the Habs be doing to get Bedard? Trading Suzuki for picks? Firing MSL and rehiring Ducharme? We’ve iced a complete POS team. We have something like 11 picks in this draft including one that is top-10 at worst and two in the first round. I don’t know what else could be reasonably asked for.

 

How about if there’s another Bedard available three years from now? Should we tank then as well, in this perpetual quest for a generational player?

 

If the point, instead, is just to say, “gee, I wish the Habs had the league’s best player,” then yeah, I agree. 🤷‍♂️ It’s great to have generational talent. Yep. 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

[...]

If the point, instead, is just to say, “gee, I wish the Habs had the league’s best player,” then yeah, I agree. 🤷‍♂️ It’s great to have generational talent. Yep. 

 

 

 

I think you got the point. Some fans which that on a year where there is generational talent available it is a valid wish to want that for the Habs.

Also, it would also be great if the Habs would sign for that type of talent (UFA, block-buster trade)

 

Ending up with yet another bubble team would be a sorry outcome of multiple years of sucking at the bottom of the standings

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33 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Well, what more should the Habs be doing to get Bedard? Trading Suzuki for picks? Firing MSL and rehiring Ducharme? We’ve iced a complete POS team.

 

Of course ... that is exactly what I am suggesting 🙄 ... I have not said they should do anything more, just that I am cheering for losses ... which, BTW, is ***not*** cheering for young players to not develop ... just for the POS team, as you describe them, to perform as such.

 

33 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

How about if there’s another Bedard available three years from now? Should we tank then as well, in this perpetual quest for a generational player?

 

Again, not what I have heard anyone suggest, despite what the anti-ankers will claim ... but if there is a GENERATIONAL player in the 2026 draft ***AND*** the Habs rebuild has failed then it should be CONSIDERED ... if the rebuild is on track then obviously not.

 

 

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

A generational player? How many of those are actually in the league? You can count them on one hand, and securing one is pure luck.

[...]

 

on the top-20, I count half a dozen that at some point played like generational players and carried their teams further in the playoff than without them. EDM is on the cusp PIT is on the downslide

image.png

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"Generational" really implies one in a generation. Six forwards (plus D and G) playing today is not "generational". Elite, maybe, but not generational. Even if they carried a team further than expected in one playoff season.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

If the point, instead, is just to say, “gee, I wish the Habs had the league’s best player,” then yeah, I agree.  It’s great to have generational talent. Yep.

Agree 100%.

 

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

A team like Boston puts the lie to this obsessive “high picks = superstars = winning” equation. Boston is dominating the league. Pasternak; he was a 25th overall pick. Bergeron has been the franchise glue for 15 years; he was a second-rounder. McAvoy was 14th overall…drafted at a ranking where the Habs have had multiple picks over the past decade, with mostly crap to show for it. And none of those guys are “generational players.”

Trying to win with a handful of elite players (see: Toronto) is one strategy, but it quickly forces the jettisoning of talented players lower in the lineup due to cap constraints.

 

A different strategy is to try to win with a more balanced lineup, like Boston -- or similar to the 2020-21 Habs, for that matter. Not four lines of third-liners, but a balanced 1-2 attack, six forwards that could be first-liners but not superstars. For example, it could be something like Caufield-Suzuki-Ylonen and Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson (just quick examples, not intended for deep analysis). Two lines that can be real threats, followed by quality third and fourth lines that can still attack and present a scoring threat.

 

Why has Suzuki plateaued this year? Partly it's because Caufield is injured and he needs quality linemates who can score, but partly also because the opponents know that Suzuki is a threat so they shut him down. If we have an equally-talented second line, though, it's much harder for an opposing team to neutralize that threat.

 

One key advantage of this balanced approach is that you are not dependent on getting a lottery draft pick in a rich draft year to get an elite player to lead your attack. Yes, the Habs might be able to pick up a superb prospect this summer, but it's far from guaranteed. And if they don't get one, where is the building-around-an-elite-talent strategy, then?

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33 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

"Generational" really implies one in a generation. Six forwards (plus D and G) playing today is not "generational". Elite, maybe, but not generational. Even if they carried a team further than expected in one playoff season.

I will settle for Elite, an influx of elite talent is needed for the Habs to go from the dumpster to the top of the league.

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19 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Agree 100%.

 

Trying to win with a handful of elite players (see: Toronto) is one strategy, but it quickly forces the jettisoning of talented players lower in the lineup due to cap constraints.

 

A different strategy is to try to win with a more balanced lineup, like Boston -- or similar to the 2020-21 Habs, for that matter. Not four lines of third-liners, but a balanced 1-2 attack, six forwards that could be first-liners but not superstars. For example, it could be something like Caufield-Suzuki-Ylonen and Slafkovsky-Dach-Anderson (just quick examples, not intended for deep analysis). Two lines that can be real threats, followed by quality third and fourth lines that can still attack and present a scoring threat.

 

Why has Suzuki plateaued this year? Partly it's because Caufield is injured and he needs quality linemates who can score, but partly also because the opponents know that Suzuki is a threat so they shut him down. If we have an equally-talented second line, though, it's much harder for an opposing team to neutralize that threat.

 

One key advantage of this balanced approach is that you are not dependent on getting a lottery draft pick in a rich draft year to get an elite player to lead your attack. Yes, the Habs might be able to pick up a superb prospect this summer, but it's far from guaranteed. And if they don't get one, where is the building-around-an-elite-talent strategy, then?

 

those two lines would not compete even against the Senators' top two lines, even less against Boston on a best of secen series.

Why are you so adamant in arguing the Habs do not need Elite talent?

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42 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

those two lines would not compete even against the Senators' top two lines, even less against Boston on a best of secen series.

Why are you so adamant in arguing the Habs do not need Elite talent?

I believe Caufield, Suzuki and Dach certainly qualify as first-line talent as they mature; exactly what their ceilings are is still TBD. Slafkovsky will hopefully be in the same category although we have not yet seen it. As a 1A/1B centre sequence, I do think Suzuki and Dach could be a solid combination.

 

I am not opposed to getting good players, far from it. But expecting to get a McDavid/Matthews/Lemieux-level player in next summer's draft is a dream, not a plan.

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2018-19 Domi 72pts tied 46th 

2019-20 Tatar 61pts tied 32nd 

 

Are pretty typical for the top Habs for past 30+yrs.

 

Just 1, just 1 year would be nice to see a point/game+ Hab in the scoring race to the end of year.

Kovalev was last one who was "almost" there and that wasnt yesterday.

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3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

I believe Caufield, Suzuki and Dach certainly qualify as first-line talent as they mature; exactly what their ceilings are is still TBD. Slafkovsky will hopefully be in the same category although we have not yet seen it. As a 1A/1B centre sequence, I do think Suzuki and Dach could be a solid combination.

 

I am not opposed to getting good players, far from it. But expecting to get a McDavid/Matthews/Lemieux-level player in next summer's draft is a dream, not a plan.

Until the standings are finalized and the lottery held there are really no plans of any kind to be made.

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40 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Until the standings are finalized and the lottery held there are really no plans of any kind to be made.

Unless you win the lottery you still can't make a detailed plan as you won't know who will be available when you pick.

 

But even before the lottery you can make a high-level plan, a strategy, of how you are going to rebuild the team. And I'm certain HuGo have worked out such a strategy. What it says is something I don't know, though.

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