2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Will Smith, folks seem to like him.

5th sees about bang on.

I get impression that Carlsson or Michkov likely better options, but Smith's offense seems pretty darn good as well and assume an obvious choice if Carlsson and Michkov both gone.

 

https://www.habsworld.net/2023/06/2023-draft-profile-will-smith/

 

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Makes my brain hurt trying to figure out conditions of Flames 1st rounder;

 

Montreal Canadiens Acquire:
Sean Monahan
2025 1st round pick (CGY) [Conditional]*
*Conditions: 1. If CGY’s 2024 1st round pick is between 20 and 32, MTL can take that pick instead. Result: TBD

Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick:
1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD

2. If CGY’s pick is top 10, AND FLA’s pick is NOT top 10, MTL receives FLA’s pick. Result: TBD

Scenario: In the event CGY does NOT receive FLA’s 1st round pick:

Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is NOT top 10
1. MTL will receive the CGY pick, and
2. If FLA’s pick is not top 10, is a better pick than CGY’s, and was transferred to another team due to prior conditions, MTL will also receive CGY’s 2025 4th round pick.
Result: TBD

Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is top 10:
1. If CGY’s pick is 1st overall, MTL will receive CGY’s 2025 3rd, and the better of CGY and FLA’s 2026 1st round pick. Result: TBD
2. If CGY’s pick is 2nd to 10th, MTL receives CGY’s 2025 1st round pick. Result: TBD

Holy hell this is a crazy deal that is hard to follow!

 

Still…Getting a decent pick regardless of how obtuse the deal is for just taking Monahan is some wonderful GMing. I hope Treliving considers the Habs when he dumps Tavares. 

[GHT120]

4 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Holy hell this is a crazy deal that is hard to follow!

Still…Getting a decent pick regardless of how obtuse the deal is for just taking Monahan is some wonderful GMing.  

 

Abso-freaking-lutely

 

 

4 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I hope Treliving considers the Habs when he dumps Tavares. 

 

N-M-C ...... so not likely to happen ... and two years at $11M is a little tougher to justify for HuGo ... also,  given Tavares is still a point-per-game player the Leaves wouldn't be paying a lot to move him even if he agreed. to a trade.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

21 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Abso-freaking-lutely

 

 

N-M-C ...... so not likely to happen ... and two years at $11M is a little tougher to justify for HuGo ... also,  given Tavares is still a point-per-game player the Leaves wouldn't be paying a lot to move him even if he agreed. to a trade.

 

Although two years of Tavares might artificially propel us into “playoff team” status, he is really better suited to a contending team that is looking for an added short-term piece. Like Toronto.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

53 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Abso-freaking-lutely

 

 

N-M-C ...... so not likely to happen ... and two years at $11M is a little tougher to justify for HuGo ... also,  given Tavares is still a point-per-game player the Leaves wouldn't be paying a lot to move him even if he agreed. to a trade.

 

30 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Although two years of Tavares might artificially propel us into “playoff team” status, he is really better suited to a contending team that is looking for an added short-term piece. Like Toronto.

Hmmmmm that’s too bad about Tavares. 
 

Treliving is prognosticated to add deeply to the back end and to do that the leafs need cap room. 

Nylander might be the odd guy out but leafs will get a good player back for him. Tavares would be more challenging to move

[tomh009]

5 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Nylander might be the odd guy out but leafs will get a good player back for him. Tavares would be more challenging to move

They'll want picks or (more likely) a prospect as they won't be able to fit the contract of an established player into their cap space.

[Commandant]

Tavares has made it clear he wants to stay in toronto and won't be waiving that NMC for everyone. 

 

Remember that he signed in Toronto cause he always wanted to be a Leaf and was a leaf fan from a young age.  That feeling could of course change once you see the reality of living your dream (see Drouin) but in Tavares case it doesn't seem to have changed.

[DON]

The 1st 4 picks most likely, it seems.

 

 

 

And as for #5 Basu adds to reasons why not to draft Michkov;

 

"He rarely drifts too far in from the defensive blue line, rarely engages in battles to get the puck out. It’s just not his thing. And he is constantly blowing the zone looking for a quick strike opportunity, often long before his team has secured possession of the puck."

 

https://theathletic.com/4579575/2023/06/05/matvei-michkov-nhl-draft-canadiens/

 

Along with politics, 3 more years in KHL, Hughes comments about what looking for, his defensive game or lack of, likely will have Habs picking 'someone' else.

 

But, Pronman does put Michkov as highest ceiling:

https://theathletic.com/4517341/2023/06/06/nhl-draft-bedard-michkov-skill/

 

In terms of the best collection of skills and physical traits, without considering production and various risk factors in a player’s projection, here is how I would line up the 2023 NHL Draft class.

1. Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA-Russia

[tomh009]

Note that the Pronman article is specifically for the highest ceiling (yes, DON did mention that): Michkov has a high ceiling but his floor is lower than, say,Fantilli, even ignoring any of the Russia risk factors.

 

On the Michkov quiestion, Basu points out that of his 20 points in 27 KHL games, eight were in two games against Kunlun, a bottom-feeder team, and the remaining 12 points in 25 games are not quite as impressive.

 

Basu's conclusions are pretty clear: "That calculation is what this pick comes down to. The Canadiens have a hard belief in their own ability to develop players, and picking Michkov would essentially be sub-contracting that to someone else. They have a hard belief in what it takes to win in the playoffs, and Michkov doesn’t fit that belief. No one having any control over how Michkov is used or developed in Russia over the next three years adds to the risk. The rewards, therefore, must be considerable."

 

We shall see. But maybe someone else will draft Michkov first, removing this dilemma from the Habs.

[GHT120]

18 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

... We shall see. But maybe someone else will draft Michkov first, removing this dilemma from the Habs.

 

 

Barry Trotz says he told his scouts to “take some swings, take some high end swings on some guys” in the upcoming draft.  Sounds Michkov-ish.
 

 

 

[tomh009]

6 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Barry Trotz says he told his scouts to “take some swings, take some high end swings on some guys” in the upcoming draft.  Sounds Michkov-ish.

They are not picking until 15th, though.

[GHT120]

22 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

They are not picking until 15th, though.

 

Not even certain who I mixed them up with

[Commandant]

57 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Note that the Pronman article is specifically for the highest ceiling (yes, DON did mention that): Michkov has a high ceiling but his floor is lower than, say,Fantilli, even ignoring any of the Russia risk factors.

 

On the Michkov quiestion, Basu points out that of his 20 points in 27 KHL games, eight were in two games against Kunlun, a bottom-feeder team, and the remaining 12 points in 25 games are not quite as impressive.

 

Basu's conclusions are pretty clear: "That calculation is what this pick comes down to. The Canadiens have a hard belief in their own ability to develop players, and picking Michkov would essentially be sub-contracting that to someone else. They have a hard belief in what it takes to win in the playoffs, and Michkov doesn’t fit that belief. No one having any control over how Michkov is used or developed in Russia over the next three years adds to the risk. The rewards, therefore, must be considerable."

 

We shall see. But maybe someone else will draft Michkov first, removing this dilemma from the Habs.

 

Why does michkov only get hit with his 8 points were in 2 games against kunlun so they dont count.

 

Why doesnt fantilli.get the same analysis, carlsson, bedard, smith? They all had games against stronger and weaker competition.

 

Throwing out games js stupid especially when only done for 1 player.

 

Almost all players will score more against weaker opposition.  Thats why big sample sizes and dont throw out games is best.  It compares apples to apples.

[Colin]

Regarding Michkov: are the Habs really in a place where taking a huge swing for what must be considered a somewhat risky proposition make sense in the early days of a rebuild? Wouldn’t it be better asset management to pick a slightly lesser skilled player who is going to assist the rebuild more immediately? 
 

Don’t get me wrong, high-end skill is great. I’m just not sure that Michkov is the best use of this pick in particular.  
 

Not that I’d be disappointed, I’m just not sure it’s the best use of this pick. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Colin
Spelling

[Habsfan89]

13 minutes ago, Colin said:

Regarding Michkov: are the Habs really in a place where taking a huge swing for what must be considered a somewhat risky proposition make sense in the early days of a rebuild? Wouldn’t it be better asset management to pick a slightly lesser skilled player who is going to assist the rebuild more immediately? 
 

Don’t get me wrong, high-end skill is great. I’m just not sure that Michkov is the best use of this pick in particular.  
 

Not that I’d be disappointed, I’m just not sure it’s the best use of this pick. 

How's it risky pick? He's under contract for 2 more years in Russia then wants to come to the NHL. That works out perfect for us, we're rebuilding and should be coming out of our rebuild by the time he's ready to come in 2 years.  It's actually perfect timing for us. If he's there at 5 we can't pass him up. 
 

Draft him let him play his contract out then bring him to Montreal. 

[GHT120]

16 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

How's it risky pick? He's under contract for 2 more years in Russia then wants to come to the NHL. That works out perfect for us, we're rebuilding and should be coming out of our rebuild by the time he's ready to come in 2 years.  It's actually perfect timing for us. If he's there at 5 we can't pass him up. 
 

Draft him let him play his contract out then bring him to Montreal. 

The risk is that, from what I've read, while his ceiling is high his floor is lower than other options.

[tomh009]

3 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

How's it risky pick? He's under contract for 2 more years in Russia then wants to come to the NHL.

He's under contract for three years. Military service might make it four. And that's still ignoring the risk that he simply cannot leave Russia.

 

And if I recall the CBA correctly, he would become a UFA if not signed four years from the draft. So, if he wants to skip the ELC and RFA stages, he can simply wait an extra year and become a free agent immediately. Unless I have that four-year UFA timeline wrong ...

[DON]

16 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

He's under contract for three years. Military service might make it four. And that's still ignoring the risk that he simply cannot leave Russia.

 

I think he is allowed to come over for the draft.

But, will be interesting where he gets picked; somewhere from 3rd and 8th safe to say.

[Commandant]

7 hours ago, Colin said:

Regarding Michkov: are the Habs really in a place where taking a huge swing for what must be considered a somewhat risky proposition make sense in the early days of a rebuild? Wouldn’t it be better asset management to pick a slightly lesser skilled player who is going to assist the rebuild more immediately? 
 

Don’t get me wrong, high-end skill is great. I’m just not sure that Michkov is the best use of this pick in particular.  
 

Not that I’d be disappointed, I’m just not sure it’s the best use of this pick. 

 

Michkov is 3 years away from the NHL and likely to make an immediate impact on an ELC when he comes over.

 

Other players at 5 ar 1-2 years away and may need a year to adjust to.the pros anyway.

 

Im fine with waiting one more year for an elite talent.

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

He's under contract for three years. Military service might make it four. And that's still ignoring the risk that he simply cannot leave Russia.

 

And if I recall the CBA correctly, he would become a UFA if not signed four years from the draft. So, if he wants to skip the ELC and RFA stages, he can simply wait an extra year and become a free agent immediately. Unless I have that four-year UFA timeline wrong ...

 

"Military service" is typically done at the same time the player is playing for SKA (affiliated with Putin) or CSKA (affiliated with the military).  Hes three years away.

 

He cant be a UFA until age 27 or playing 7 years in the league, whichever comes first.  Some high draft picks who make the league immediately, reach free agency at 25 cause they were in the NHL at 18.  

 

It's not going to be one year and UFA for Michkov unless it takes 8 years to bring him over.

 

Also hes being drafted out of Russia, not a signatory to the transfer agreement, so the Habs would never lose his rights... not 4 years like a european player.

[tomh009]

Ahh, right, Russia is not Europe!

[Commandant]

6 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Ahh, right, Russia is not Europe!

 

Part of it is and part of it isn't... but the bigger factor is signing the IIHF/NHL transfer agreement, which they have never done.  As a result players drafted out of Russia can't come over while still under contract (unlike say Sweden which has different rules depending if they are a first rounder or not), Russian teams don't get paid when there players come over (again unlike Sweden/finland etc) and there is no 4 year rule.

[GHT120]

 

 

https://twitter.com/grantmccagg/status/1666424589818249216?s=20

 

I agree ... I'd rather they be thorough than superficial.
 

[huzer]

8 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/grantmccagg/status/1666424589818249216?s=20

 

I agree ... I'd rather they be thorough than superficial.
 

 

While I'd agree with that normally, I've heard so much about character the last 10-12 years that it's nearly become a dirty word.

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

https://twitter.com/grantmccagg/status/1666424589818249216?s=20

 

I agree ... I'd rather they be thorough than superficial.
 

 

I would prefer they would focus on the strength & conditioning, and medical staff instead of having the best HR in the league...

 

Just saying

[GHT120]

17 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I would prefer they would focus on the strength & conditioning, and medical staff instead of having the best HR in the league...

 

Just saying

Of course that is not what the interviews are for ... but OK.
😉