2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

9 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

Im going to be honest and say that even though we have only slim chance at Bedard Im going to be disappointed if we dont get him.

 

That would be awesome to get Bedard but I won't get my hopes up. I would be thrilled to get Fantilli or Carlson. 

 

Need Florida to have a tough week as they have gained a little ground in the playoff race and I don't want them to have any hope. This week will be one of the few times (maybe the only time) in my life when I will be cheering for the Leafs. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

15 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

Im going to be honest and say that even though we have only slim chance at Bedard Im going to be disappointed if we dont get him.

 

I know what you mean. E.g., I was kind of disappointed, when we moved up the lottery ranks in 2005, that we didn’t go all the way to #1 and get Crosby. I also have that slightly irrational disappointment when my LottoMax ticket comes back “NOT A WINNER.” But to disappointed in any sort of genuine, sensible way requires us to have a *reasonable expectation* of getting the outcome in question. As it stands right now, the Habs apparently have a 7.5% chance of getting Bedard: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds Those are mighty long odds. Even if we have a complete collapse and finish 2nd last, we’ll have only a 13.5% chance.

 

So yeah, it’ll be too bad if we don’t have an incredible stroke of luck and win the draft lottery. But that doesn’t change the fact that winning it would be an incredible stroke of luck - not something we can reasonably expect. 

 

(Maybe, to end on a positive note, it’s worth pointing out that the 2005 draft offers a more encouraging parallel: that was the year when, drafting #5, we got Carey Price. With a high pick assured and a talented draft class, we may end up in a position to draft another franchise cornerstone, irrespective of what happens with Bedard). 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉

[DON]

7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick.

 

Thats right...right?

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

44 minutes ago, DON said:

7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick.

 

Thats right...right?

 

There is a formula to calculate probabilities when you have more than 1 chance. It's not as simple as adding them together. 

[Habsfan89]

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉

I think we pick around 5-8 and the Russian kid fall's to us and we pick him. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, DON said:

7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick.

 

Thats right...right?

 

I was over thinking this, for the 1st pick you would simply add the probabilities together.  The chance of the 2nd pick is a little more complicated because your odds would go up or down depending on whether you got the 1st pick or not.  I stand to be corrected by any mathematician's on the board. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

14 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I think we pick around 5-8 and the Russian kid fall's to us and we pick him. 

 

I think that is entirely possible. Hard to say how far Michkov will fall but some teams will be scared away by the Russian factor. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉

 

I would definitely be smoothed over by that. LOL  Wishful thinking but I like it. 

[alfredoh2009]

I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round.

but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10.

[DON]

19 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round.

but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10.

Alot of elite forwards over past few decades have been russians. Habs have never drafted any...yet.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round.

but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10.

 

It is a factor you can't ignore and there is a little more risk drafting a Russian these days but you could get a terrific bargain if they fall far enough in the draft and you are patient and things work out. It will be interesting to see how far someone like Michkov or others fall because they are Russian. 

[Commandant]

There is also thenfact that Michkov is signed in russia until 2026 and we have seen that getting players out of russia before their contracts expire is near impossible and that was before the war.  Even before the war you had to wait out the contract

[alfredoh2009]

15 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

It is a factor you can't ignore and there is a little more risk drafting a Russian these days but you could get a terrific bargain if they fall far enough in the draft and you are patient and things work out. It will be interesting to see how far someone like Michkov or others fall because they are Russian. 

 

I know, it would be a great bargain. I just hate much more war than love draft picks I may be crazy

[Neech]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I know, it would be a great bargain. I just hate much more war than love draft picks I may be crazy

 

Lol then maybe we should boycott American players.

[alfredoh2009]

yeah! our love/hate relationship with the neighbor

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

I am cheering big time for the Leafs tonight. C'mon Mathews. C'mon Marner.  Now I am going to wash my mouth out.  

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

3 goals on 8 shots.  Somehow the Leafs know I am cheering for them tonight and they are going to ruin my evening. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

On 1/4/2023 at 11:32 AM, Commandant said:

 

Fantilli at 2, Carlson at 4 right now.  I'll have a top 32 out after the tournament is over. 

 

Hi Commandant, have you published your list yet?  Thanks 

[DON]

Sitting with 7th, 13th picks today.

[tomh009]

52 minutes ago, DON said:

Sitting with 7th, 13th picks today.

7th and 10th by percentage; Panthers have played 2-3 more games than the three teams just behind them.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

On 1/17/2023 at 9:01 AM, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

I am cheering big time for the Leafs tonight. C'mon Mathews. C'mon Marner.  Now I am going to wash my mouth out.  

 

I’ll drink my own blood before I cheer for the Leafs under ANY circumstances 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

9 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I’ll drink my own blood before I cheer for the Leafs under ANY circumstances 

 

Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture. LOL

[DON]

Go Canucks Go! They can take the Aves cant they?

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

Nice to the Panthers lose tonight. Now if only the Penguins can beat them tomorrow night that would be awesome. C'mon Sid the Kid.