Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, Dalhabs said: Im going to be honest and say that even though we have only slim chance at Bedard Im going to be disappointed if we dont get him. That would be awesome to get Bedard but I won't get my hopes up. I would be thrilled to get Fantilli or Carlson. Need Florida to have a tough week as they have gained a little ground in the playoff race and I don't want them to have any hope. This week will be one of the few times (maybe the only time) in my life when I will be cheering for the Leafs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, Dalhabs said: Im going to be honest and say that even though we have only slim chance at Bedard Im going to be disappointed if we dont get him. I know what you mean. E.g., I was kind of disappointed, when we moved up the lottery ranks in 2005, that we didn’t go all the way to #1 and get Crosby. I also have that slightly irrational disappointment when my LottoMax ticket comes back “NOT A WINNER.” But to disappointed in any sort of genuine, sensible way requires us to have a *reasonable expectation* of getting the outcome in question. As it stands right now, the Habs apparently have a 7.5% chance of getting Bedard: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds Those are mighty long odds. Even if we have a complete collapse and finish 2nd last, we’ll have only a 13.5% chance. So yeah, it’ll be too bad if we don’t have an incredible stroke of luck and win the draft lottery. But that doesn’t change the fact that winning it would be an incredible stroke of luck - not something we can reasonably expect. (Maybe, to end on a positive note, it’s worth pointing out that the 2005 draft offers a more encouraging parallel: that was the year when, drafting #5, we got Carey Price. With a high pick assured and a talented draft class, we may end up in a position to draft another franchise cornerstone, irrespective of what happens with Bedard). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick. Thats right...right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 44 minutes ago, DON said: 7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick. Thats right...right? There is a formula to calculate probabilities when you have more than 1 chance. It's not as simple as adding them together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan89 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉 I think we pick around 5-8 and the Russian kid fall's to us and we pick him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, DON said: 7.5% + 3.5% Florida's pick = 11% chance of 1st pick at moment & 11.7% chance of 2nd pick. Thats right...right? I was over thinking this, for the 1st pick you would simply add the probabilities together. The chance of the 2nd pick is a little more complicated because your odds would go up or down depending on whether you got the 1st pick or not. I stand to be corrected by any mathematician's on the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 14 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said: I think we pick around 5-8 and the Russian kid fall's to us and we pick him. I think that is entirely possible. Hard to say how far Michkov will fall but some teams will be scared away by the Russian factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: Losing Bedard could be smoothed over by getting pick #2 and #3 🎉 I would definitely be smoothed over by that. LOL Wishful thinking but I like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round. but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said: I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round. but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10. Alot of elite forwards over past few decades have been russians. Habs have never drafted any...yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said: I am sorry to bring politics into this thread, but if Russia is still at war with Ukraine, I do not want the Habs to draft a russian kid in the first round. but I am glad I do not have to make that choice. Let's hope the Habs have the highest picks possible in the top 10. It is a factor you can't ignore and there is a little more risk drafting a Russian these days but you could get a terrific bargain if they fall far enough in the draft and you are patient and things work out. It will be interesting to see how far someone like Michkov or others fall because they are Russian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 There is also thenfact that Michkov is signed in russia until 2026 and we have seen that getting players out of russia before their contracts expire is near impossible and that was before the war. Even before the war you had to wait out the contract Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 15 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: It is a factor you can't ignore and there is a little more risk drafting a Russian these days but you could get a terrific bargain if they fall far enough in the draft and you are patient and things work out. It will be interesting to see how far someone like Michkov or others fall because they are Russian. I know, it would be a great bargain. I just hate much more war than love draft picks I may be crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neech Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said: I know, it would be a great bargain. I just hate much more war than love draft picks I may be crazy Lol then maybe we should boycott American players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 yeah! our love/hate relationship with the neighbor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 I am cheering big time for the Leafs tonight. C'mon Mathews. C'mon Marner. Now I am going to wash my mouth out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 goals on 8 shots. Somehow the Leafs know I am cheering for them tonight and they are going to ruin my evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 On 1/4/2023 at 11:32 AM, Commandant said: Fantilli at 2, Carlson at 4 right now. I'll have a top 32 out after the tournament is over. Hi Commandant, have you published your list yet? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Sitting with 7th, 13th picks today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 52 minutes ago, DON said: Sitting with 7th, 13th picks today. 7th and 10th by percentage; Panthers have played 2-3 more games than the three teams just behind them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 9:01 AM, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I am cheering big time for the Leafs tonight. C'mon Mathews. C'mon Marner. Now I am going to wash my mouth out. I’ll drink my own blood before I cheer for the Leafs under ANY circumstances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: I’ll drink my own blood before I cheer for the Leafs under ANY circumstances Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Go Canucks Go! They can take the Aves cant they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Nice to the Panthers lose tonight. Now if only the Penguins can beat them tomorrow night that would be awesome. C'mon Sid the Kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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