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Scott Wheeler's prospect pool rankings


tomh009

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The Athletic has been publishing Scott Wheeler's annual prospect pool rankings for all 32 teams. The Habs are down in 11th from 8th last year, but this makes sense due to the "graduations".

 

No longer eligible Graduated (NHL regulars):

  • Cole Caufield (1st in 2022)
  • Juraj Slafkovsky (NR)
  • Kaiden Guhle (2nd)
  • Arber Xhekaj (NR)
  • Jordan Harris (4th)

No longer eligible Graduated (23 or older):

  • Jesse Ylonen (11th)
  • Brett Stapley (18th)

That's a significant chunk of our prospect pool now playing regularly in the Habs lineup!

 

Now, his rankings:

  1. Lane Hutson (NR)
  2. Sean Farrell (3rd)
  3. Owen Beck (NR)
  4. Filip Mesar (NR)
  5. Joshua Roy (7th)
  6. Logan Mailloux (NR)
  7. Justin Barron (3rd for COL)
  8. Riley Kidney (9th)
  9. Adam Engstrom (NR)
  10. Jan Mysak (5th)
  11. Oliver Kapanen (13th)
  12. Vincenz Rohrer (NR)
  13. Cedric Guindon (NR)
  14. Jakub Dobes (NR)
  15. Xavier Simoneau (16th)

I think Wheeler is basically projecting the top nine to become NHL regulars, with the later ones having a chance but less likely.

 

Players considered but not in top 15:

  • Mattias Norlinder (8th)
  • William Trudeau
  • Gianni Fairbrother
  • Cayden Primeau (6th)
  • Dmitri Kostenko
  • Luke Tuch
  • Rhett Pitlick
  • Petteri Nurmi
  • Jayden Struble (10th)
  • Jared Davidson
  • Miguel Tourigny
  • Emil Heineman

 

Even before the 2023 draft, the Habs already have a strong youth generation, with 11 forwards (Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slafkovsky, Ylonen and six top-nine prospects) and eight D-men (Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj, Kovacevic and four top-nine prospects). (Goaltending is thinner with only Montembeault as likely.) Not all top-nines will make it, but then some additional ones will -- plus the 2023 draft class. And we will surely have some veterans playing as well. I am looking forward to the youthful Habs of the next few years!

 

P.S. I do have some trial subscription codes for The Athletic in case anyone wants to read in more detail. Send me a PM if you would like one.

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Thanks ... interesting ... don't know enough about these players to disagree with anything, although from what I read I am somewhat surprised that Jakob Dobes is not a bit higher ... HOWEVER ... Stapley is with Trois Rivieres of the ECHL ... Ylonen's spot on the team is likely tenuous if everyone was healthy ... I am not certain that "Graduated" is the proper term for those that have in fact "aged out" of their definition for prospects.

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Basically Wheeler is saying that it's impossible to predict whether Dobes can become an NHL starter or backup. Goalies are voodoo, you know. :)

 

Stapley and Ylonen have graduated from the prospect pool because they have turned 23, not because they are NHL regulars.

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5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Stapley and Ylonen have graduated from the prospect pool because they have turned 23, not because they are NHL regulars.

 

Thanks ... I fully understood that ... I just think the term is inappropriate in this specific circumstance ... I would suggest Ineligible.

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

The Athletic has been publishing Scott Wheeler's annual prospect pool rankings for all 32 teams. The Habs are down in 11th from 8th last year, but this makes sense due to the "graduations".

 

Graduated (NHL regulars):

  • Cole Caufield (1st in 2022)
  • Juraj Slafkovsky (NR)
  • Kaiden Guhle (2nd)
  • Arber Xhekaj (NR)
  • Jordan Harris (4th)

Graduated (23 or older):

  • Jesse Ylonen
  • Brett Stapley

That's a significant chunk of our prospect pool now playing regularly in the Habs lineup!

 

Now, his rankings:

  1. Lane Hutson (NR)
  2. Sean Farrell (3rd)
  3. Owen Beck (NR)
  4. Filip Mesar (NR)
  5. Joshua Roy (7th)
  6. Logan Mailloux (NR)
  7. Justin Barron (3rd for COL)
  8. Riley Kidney (9th)
  9. Adam Engstrom (NR)
  10. Jan Mysak (5th)
  11. Oliver Kapanen (13th)
  12. Vincenz Rohrer (NR)
  13. Cedric Guindon (NR)
  14. Jakub Dobes (NR)
  15. Xavier Simoneau (16th)

I think Wheeler is basically projecting the top nine to become NHL regulars, with the later ones having a chance but less likely.

 

Players considered but not in top 15:

  • Mattias Norlinder (8th)
  • William Trudeau
  • Gianni Fairbrother
  • Cayden Primeau (6th)
  • Dmitri Kostenko
  • Luke Tuch
  • Rhett Pitlick
  • Petteri Nurmi
  • Jayden Struble (10th)
  • Jared Davidson
  • Miguel Tourigny
  • Emil Heineman

 

Even before the 2023 draft, the Habs already have a strong youth generation, with 11 forwards (Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slafkovsky, Ylonen and top-nine prospects) and seven D-men (Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj, Kovacevic and seven top-nine prospects). (Goaltending is thinner with only Montembeault as likely.) Not all top-nines will make it, but then some additional ones will -- plus the 2023 draft class. And we will surely have some veterans playing as well. I am looking forward to the youthful Habs of the next few years!

 

P.S. I do have some trial subscription codes for The Athletic in case anyone wants to read in more detail. Send me a PM if you would like one.

I’m surprised not to see Beck?

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

He's ranked third -- higher than Roy and Mesar, for example.

Thanks. Old man eyes missed that🙄

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41 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

If Barron is #7 then Hutson must be one hell of a Dman to be #1


Do any of the forwards project to be first line material or are we loaded with bottom 6 players?

He projects Beck, Farrell, Mesar and Roy as top-nine material. He's not specific about the ceiling (or floor). I think we have three solid young top-six forwards (Suzuki, Caufield and Dach) and two possibles (Slafkovsky and Ylonen) right now, so four additional top-nine prospects and a solid draft should have us in pretty good shape.

 

I don't think we necessarily have to have an additional elite winger for the top line (not that I would object): the Avalanche, for example, has MacKinnon and Rantanen playing with Lehkonen. What we would need is someone that can complement Caufield and Suzuki, and can create the chemistry for them to play as a cohesive unit. Could be a draft pick, could be a trade -- or could even be a UFA signing (I know PLD, for example, is a pretty popular option on these forums).

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18 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

He projects Beck, Farrell, Mesar and Roy as top-nine material. He's not specific about the ceiling (or floor). I think we have three solid young top-six forwards (Suzuki, Caufield and Dach) and two possibles (Slafkovsky and Ylonen) right now, so four additional top-nine prospects and a solid draft should have us in pretty good shape.

 

Not certain I agree about Ylonen, but agree that it is overall looking good.

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So I'd the verdict that Jayden Struble is donezo as a prospect?

 

Even still... Guhle, Harris, Xhejak, Hudson, Barron, Mailloux + the unlikely Stumble/Norlinder... Oh and Kove..

 

that's a very very good core of dmen prospects...  Though I'm starting to fall into the Mailloux won't make it camp. Offense is there but the defense + penalty issue is sketchy.

 

I still have faith in Barron being a reliable 5 who will be able to jump up if needed for stretches.

 

Guhle-Hudson (any chance he plays Rd haha)

Harris-Barron r

Xhejak-Kovech r

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58 minutes ago, Commandant said:

why are we writing off a defenceman who is still in college and another who is still in the OHL?

You like Struble as a NHL prospect? I dont.

 

Mailloux's projection, good offensively but lacking defending, seems the prevalent one.

 

Who said "we" are writing off anyone? Plutarch may be, but he dosent represent "We".

 

But, seems in line with most folks opinion of the 2 kids anyways.

 

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Struble I think you give him a contract.  Send him to the AHL and see if he can develop into a third pairing guy.  It's gonna be a two year ELC with RFA rights after that.  He has all the tools, hasn't always put it together in college.  If I was a GM, I would want to see what happens when my development staff gets a full time look at the guy.   You do that without having a lot of risk, but you also aren't writing him off.   This is different than saying hes "donezo as a prospect"

 

Mailloux needs work on his defensive game, but the offensive game looks good.  Its much easier to teach defense than offence, and the guy is literally a teenager who has missed a lot of hockey in the two seasons prior to the current one.  Again a guy who you want to get with your development staff in Laval and see if you can work with him.  With his size, skating, and offensive instincts, i'm far off the "will never make it camp" given he's still just a teenager who quite simply needs minutes. 

Remember that when these kids are coming up, before they get to the OHL, when they are in lower leagues, they often don't learn a lot of defence cause their team has the puck the majority of the time and they are creating offence when they are on the ice.  So missing the year due to Covid and only playing a few games in a lower tier swedish league, and then missing a second year due to the suspension and then the shoulder injury is absolutely huge to the defensive development.  Those are two years when he would have been challenged to play defence in a way he never was before.  So without getting into the reasons why those years were lost (and my view on them has been quite clear, so I'm not absolving him of anything), but it still is just reality that its way to early to decide he will never learn the defensive side of the game.  His time on task for this is much lower than other 19 year olds, and most 19 year olds aren't Kaiden Guhle where they have the defensive game either.

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5 hours ago, Plutarch said:

So I'd the verdict that Jayden Struble is donezo as a prospect?

 

I wouldn't say that.  He's not going to be someone that puts up a lot of points in the pros so the limited production doesn't concern me a ton.  I think he's someone whose game is better suited for pros than at college (although he'll need to lock down some of the fundamentals to avoid struggling in the minors).  His stock is down a bit this season, sure, but he's still very much a legitimate prospect.

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https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-flush-with-u-s-college-prospects-poised-to-make-jump

Pat hickey's on Struble, maybe see him in Laval this spring?

"Northeastern defenceman Jayden Struble (No. 109 overall in 2020) is in his final year and will be joining former teammate Jordan Harris in the pro ranks. Struble is a physical, stay-at-home type who has benefited from playing in a structured defensive system. He could be available to jump-start his pro career this spring because a slow start has Northeastern on the bubble for the NCAA tournament."

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