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Sam Pollock Draft strategy in the 21st century


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Now let's learn from the past and apply to present and future.

 

Molson, Gorton, Hughes

 

Now we all hear about trading for 2023 picks.. let's get creative like Sam Pollock , he traded to potentially get Gretzky year pick 1980...Wickenheiser ( if wasn't for WHA, and Skalbania/Pocklington off private deal via Houston and Winnipeg... Gretzky would have been a Habs ..possibly....,🤔)

 

So now I hear 2025 is a deep year also..

 

 

And one example of many , but let's project goalie need and a Quebec potential ( still early and of all positions goalie )..using it as example moreso to project out , Habs are in position to set themselves up for next decade by trading for not now..but Future years picks

 

 

Like this example: 2025

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-prospects-gabriel-daigle-elite-goalie-2025-draft/

 

So Gorton, Hughes can be the 21st century Pollock.. so don't just look at 2023 picks but beyond....

 

 

 

 

 

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Nothing wrong with the principle, but - how long are we supposed to wait for the rebuild? Is the idea that we’ll finally be good around 2028 when those 2025 picks start coming on stream?

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You cant repeat what Pollock did.  The guy was a genius, no doubt about it.

 

But after the way he fleeced teams, GMs learned the value of first rounders, especially the top of the draft and dont get fleeced the same way.  Sure there is the odd one like San Jose giving up a high pick in the Karlsson deal, or the Leafs giving up a high pick for Kessel but thats what, 2 in the last 20 years.  

 

What the next Genius GM will do is not copy Pollock but instead find a different strategy.  Pollock exploited an inefficiency in that GMs undervalued picks in his era.  Now teams dont do that anymore, so we need to find what is being undervalued today.

 

What that is, I dont know.  If i did know, Id be a rich man.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

 

But after the way he fleeced teams, GMs learned the value of first rounders, especially the top of the draft and dont get fleeced the same way.  Sure there is the odd one like San Jose giving up a high pick in the Karlsson deal, or the Leafs giving up a high pick for Kessel but thats what, 2 in the last 20 years.  

 

 

Also Ottawa giving a high pick in the Duchene deal.

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HuGo have already started the 2025 strategy with the Monahan trade ... albeit it is a conditional 2025 first.

 

Given the mercurial nature of goalies, I would not suggest planning to draft a goalie in the first round in 2025, let alone a specific goalie ... goalies worthy of being a first round selection are few and far between ... and a 2025 drafted goalie is not likely in the NHL before 2029 at the earliest.

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Given the mercurial nature of goalies, I would not suggest planning to draft a goalie in the first round in 2025, let alone a specific goalie ... goalies worthy of being a first round selection are few and far between ... and a 2025 drafted goalie is not likely in the NHL before 2029 at the earliest.

For goalies, given that uncertainty, it’s probably best to accumulate promising later-round prospects than to bet it all on a first-rounder that may not pan out.

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4 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

For goalies, given that uncertainty, it’s probably best to accumulate promising later-round prospects than to bet it all on a first-rounder that may not pan out.

With RARE exceptions I agree.

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For the 15 years from 2016 to 2020, a grand total of 12 goalies picked in the first round, roughly 2.5% of the total (the NHL roster has about 10% goalies).

 

2006 11 Los Angeles  Jonathan Bernier  G  Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL] 
2006 23 Washington  Semyon Varlamov  G  Yaroslavl-2 [Russia] 
2006 26 Calgary  Leland Irving  G  Everett Silvertips [WHL] 
2008 18 Nashville  Chet Pickard  G  Tri-City Americans [WHL] 
2008 30 Detroit  Tom McCollum  G  Guelph Storm [OHL] 
2010 11 Dallas  Jack Campbell  G  U.S. National Development Team
2010 27 Phoenix  Mark Visentin  G  Niagara IceDogs [OHL] 
2012 19 Tampa Bay  Andrei Vasilevskiy  G  Ufa Tolpar (Russia) 
2015 22 Washington  Ilya Samsonov  G  Magnitogorsk-2 (Russia Jrs.) 
2017 26 Dallas  Jake Oettinger  G  Boston University [H-East] 
2019 13 Florida  Spencer Knight  G  U.S. National Development Team
2020 11 Nashville  Yaroslav Askarov  G  St. Petersburg Jr. (Russia) 

 

Vasilevskiy and Oettinger are currently roughly at the Montembeault level in terms of GSAA, Samsonov a little lower. Knight and Campbell well below league average. Askarov is in the AHL and Pronman/Wheeler do expect him to become an NHL starter. And then Iving, Pickard, McCollum and Visentin never established themselves in the NHL.

 

But the point is that there is only one goalie of those twelve (Vasilevskiy), and out of 15 draft years, that has actually won an award, or been named to an all-star team. (Bernier was good, and won a Cup, but no individual awards.)

 

The odds on goalies are even longer than on other first-round picks.

 

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I would use late 2nd round picks and 3rd round picks to draft goalies. And I mean 2-3 in a couple of drafts. 
I would then invest in a focused and closely followed goalie development program to make sure they have the best chance to develop.

If more than one goalie shows NHL starter potential, I would use this as a trade chip

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On 2/20/2023 at 1:47 PM, tomh009 said:

 

But the point is that there is only one goalie of those twelve (Vasilevskiy), and out of 15 draft years, that has actually won an award, or been named to an all-star team. (Bernier was good, and won a Cup, but no individual awards.)

 

The odds on goalies are even longer than on other first-round picks.

 

 

 

It really is a crap shoot with goalies. It would be crazy to waste an early pick on a goalie unless you were really really confident (ie. Carey Price).  Goaltending hasn't been the Habs problem this year but you still need some prospects in the pipeline. 

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27 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

 

It really is a crap shoot with goalies. It would be crazy to waste an early pick on a goalie unless you were really really confident (ie. Carey Price).  Goaltending hasn't been the Habs problem this year but you still need some prospects in the pipeline. 

 

The goalie aspect of the rebuild is going to be very interesting. Monty is 26 and, like some other big goalies, a late bloomer. When is our projected “Cup window” going to start opening? For the sake of argument, let’s say 2026, three seasons from now. He’ll be a 29-year-old veteran. Maybe he could keep playing at peak level (whatever “peak” is for him) until, I dunno, 32 or so. But is there a universe in which Sam Montembault could conceivably become the #1 backstop on a contender?? 

 

Much more likely, he will be a transitional G who will be superseded as the Habs rise to contention, assuming they do. 

 

But if they draft a G now, they not only have to hit on a genuine #1, but he’ll be a rookie around 2023.

 

I suspect, therefore, we’ll be looking at a UFA G signing sometime over the next three years, someone to make a bridge between Monty and whoever actually becomes our internally-developed starter during the future years of contention. 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... Monty is 26 and, like some other big goalies, a late bloomer ... But is there a universe in which Sam Montembault could conceivably become the #1 backstop on a contender?? 

 

I don't expect so ... it would be nice ... but were there pressure to win and Montembeault had to carry a true #1 workload (he is currently tied for 35th in games played), there is a very open question IMO as to whether he could maintain even this level of performance (which is currently only 18th in Sv% amongst goalies with at least as many games played)

 

26 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

But if they draft a G now, they not only have to hit on a genuine #1, but he’ll be a rookie around 2023.

 

I suspect, therefore, we’ll be looking at a UFA G signing sometime over the next three years, someone to make a bridge between Monty and whoever actually becomes our internally-developed starter during the future years of contention. 

 

 

If they draft a goalie in the upcoming 2023 draft he likley won't be an NHL rookie until 25/26 at the absolute earliest ... hopefully by then the habs are a playoff contender, so going the rookie goalie route would by bold.

As much as I am open to trading Allen if a good return is offered, I expect Allen and Montembeault to be back next season and Allen for the final year on his contract the following season ... Montembeault will depend on how he plays next season (unless HuGo are so impressed they extend him this summer) ... I do expect Hughes is VERY interested in trading for a young goalie further along in their development than a draftee, rather than looking at veteran UFAs (unless Allen gets traded).

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15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

The goalie aspect of the rebuild is going to be very interesting. Monty is 26 and, like some other big goalies, a late bloomer. When is our projected “Cup window” going to start opening? For the sake of argument, let’s say 2026, three seasons from now. He’ll be a 29-year-old veteran. Maybe he could keep playing at peak level (whatever “peak” is for him) until, I dunno, 32 or so. But is there a universe in which Sam Montembault could conceivably become the #1 backstop on a contender?? 

 

Much more likely, he will be a transitional G who will be superseded as the Habs rise to contention, assuming they do.

It's a small sample size, still, but he's been solid for (most of) 25 games. If he were to be able to sustain this through next season, I think we could certainly consider him a viable #1/1A/1B.

 

image.png

 

Hopefully this year is not just an aberration and he really has found a new level.

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I see them going after one of the two buffalo college kids.... Levi or Portillo

 

Would be a little more advanced than an 18 year old. 

 

I figure they also will use at least one pick on a goalie.  I'd do that every year, draft a goalie in the late rounds (doesn't have to be a 2nd like suggested, that seems too high) and just see what happen.s 

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1 minute ago, tomh009 said:

Hopefully this year is not just an aberration and he really has found a new level.

 

Agreed ... it would greatly simplify the rebuild ... but I have the concerns I expressed above as to whether this year is reflective of what to expect going forward.

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2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I don't expect so ... it would be nice ... but were there pressure to win and Montembeault had to carry a true #1 workload (he is currently tied for 35th in games played), there is a very open question IMO as to whether he could maintain even this level of performance (which is currently only 18th in Sv% amongst goalies with at least as many games played).

18th in the league is really mid-pack among starters so it's certainly not terrible. And the save percentage is impacted by the type of shots the defence gives up, those tend to be more dangerous for the Habs than for, say, the Bruins. GSAA is a better stat, at least in principle, but it's impacted by the xGA stat, which is evaluated differently by the various sites that do advanced stats. The ones I posted above are from MoneyPuck, others will be different.

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3 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Agreed ... it would greatly simplify the rebuild ... but I have the concerns I expressed above as to whether this year is reflective of what to expect going forward.

It's far from certain, some goalies have a great season and then slump the next (see Bobrovsky and Knight for a couple of examples). I'm encouraged and cautiously optimistic that he can possibly be part of a contending team, but we really don't know yet.

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Just now, Commandant said:

I see them going after one of the two buffalo college kids.... Levi or Portillo

 

Would be a little more advanced than an 18 year old. 

 

I figure they also will use at least one pick on a goalie.  I'd do that every year, draft a goalie in the late rounds (doesn't have to be a 2nd like suggested, that seems too high) and just see what happen.s 

 

Agreed ... I have to admit to a bias for Portillo (despite his having a down season this year) because Levi is undersized for modern goalies ("officially" listed as 6'0") ... I also hold out hope for Dobes, maybe Dichow as well ... good to have lots of options.

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

 

Agreed ... I have to admit to a bias for Portillo (despite his having a down season this year) because Levi is undersized for modern goalies ("officially" listed as 6'0") ... I also hold out hope for Dobes, maybe Dichow as well ... good to have lots of options.

There was a time Dryden was called a giraffe in net - he’d be average today.

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23 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

There was a time Dryden was called a giraffe in net - he’d be average today.

Upper-average ... but within the norms ... but my concern about Levi (and Dustin Wolfe for that matter) remains ... doesn't mean he/they can't succeed, but it would make them unicorns.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

I see them going after one of the two buffalo college kids.... Levi or Portillo

 

Would be a little more advanced than an 18 year old. 

 

I figure they also will use at least one pick on a goalie.  I'd do that every year, draft a goalie in the late rounds (doesn't have to be a 2nd like suggested, that seems too high) and just see what happen.s 

 

Any chance they sign Yaniv Perets?

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1 minute ago, Helmethead said:

Any chance they sign Yaniv Perets?

 

No idea ... but made me look him up ... small-ish (6'1") ... Quinnipiac University ... listed in NCAA stats as a sophomore, although it is his third season (guess he was granted a redshirt season for his first year) ... leads NCAA in winning percentage and GAA, 7th in Sv% ... he has two more years of eligibility so seems less likely that he will leave school this spring, or summer.

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38 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Upper-average ... but within the norms ... but my concern about Levi (and Dustin Wolfe for that matter) remains ... doesn't mean he/they can't succeed, but it would make them unicorns.

6'0" would not be unique, DeSmith is 6'0".

 

Size is an advantage but I still don't believe that a good 6'1 goalie is necessarily better than a great 6'0 goalie. There is no magic capability switch that clicks "on" as soon as you reach 6'1.

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