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  • DON changed the title to Russian Swap Dadanov out Gurianov in

Trading an expiring UFA that was basically untradeable, for a younger, expiring RFA that will be cheaper to resign that could be, at worse, a reclamation project.  I don't know much about Gurianov, but just his age, contract status and his offensive capabilities makes this a win, no?

 

Talk about making honey out of horse shit.

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3 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Trading an expiring UFA that was basically untradeable, for a younger, expiring RFA that will be cheaper to resign that could be, at worse, a reclamation project.  I don't know anything about Gurianov, but just his age and contract status makes this a win, no?

 

Talk about making honey out of horse shit. 

He had an excellent 2019-20 season but has not been able to show that form recently. Can the Habs turn that around? They have 20 games to find out.

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17 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Trading an expiring UFA that was basically untradeable, for a younger, expiring RFA that will be cheaper to resign that could be, at worse, a reclamation project.  I don't know much about Gurianov, but just his age, contract status and his offensive capabilities makes this a win, no?

 

Talk about making honey out of horse shit.

 

12 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

He had an excellent 2019-20 season but has not been able to show that form recently. Can the Habs turn that around? They have 20 games to find out.

 

 

Exactly ... he is, I believe, owed a $2.9M qualifying offer ... he has 23 games to show he is worth it (or an otherwise negotiated extension).

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Using a retention slot, giving Dallas an upgrade and giving them 400k in cap space...

 

For a 25 year old 'project' RFA we get 20 odd games to judge?

 

I feel this deal is mainly us doing Dadanov a solid.

 

I am concerned we may give this guy a bad contract though if he gets a 'new team boost' then sucks after. Hopefully we do a 1 year prove it deal with him if he has a hot few weeks.

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Bon voyage Dadonov.  Bienvenue Gurianov!

 

Gurianov could be a decent pickup with a low cost to acquire and a potentially high reward.  He is 6'3" and 205 lbs so the Habs are bigger and stronger.  Plus, he is fast too.  Apparently, he likes to shoot and is a good passer.   He could be decent on the PP.  It seems like he is a top 6 winger but had issues making the Starts top 6, which could explain his recent drop off in point production.

 

He isn't a great during the regular season averaging around .33 pts/gm, but in the playoffs he is closer to .5.  

 

The main downside is that he isn't great defensively.  

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

... He isn't a great during the regular season averaging around .33 pts/gm, but in the playoffs he is closer to .5.  

 

That .33 is a career average ... by season, once he made the NHL full-time, 0.45 ppg in 64 games, 0.55/55, 0.42/73 and 0.21/43 ... the unknown is why he dipped ... his TOI did vary (12:59, 15:51, 14:11, 12:08) so while that may be factor in his scoring decline it may also be reflective of his not earning TOI ... I am hopeful ... look forward to seeing him on the ice ... MIGHT even make me watch the west coast games.

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15 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

That .33 is a career average ... by season, once he made the NHL full-time, 0.45 ppg in 64 games, 0.55/55, 0.42/73 and 0.21/43 ... the unknown is why he dipped ... his TOI did vary (12:59, 15:51, 14:11, 12:08) so while that may be factor in his scoring decline it may also be reflective of his not earning TOI ... I am hopeful ... look forward to seeing him on the ice ... MIGHT even make me watch the west coast games.

 

Its not just TOI but the quality of his linemates.  He was top 6, then was bottom 6.  His good #'s were top 6, but as a bottom 6 his #'s dropped considerably.  Sort of reminds me of Pitlick in a sense.  i.e. they can do really well in top 6 but drop right off as bottom 6 with lesser skilled linemates.  I certainly hope that RHP isn't like that - but at the moment we have no idea.  

 

It would be remarkable if Hughes just managed to turn Webers albatross contract into a 50-60 pt guy.  

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43 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

Its not just TOI but the quality of his linemates.  He was top 6, then was bottom 6.  His good #'s were top 6, but as a bottom 6 his #'s dropped considerably.  Sort of reminds me of Pitlick in a sense.  i.e. they can do really well in top 6 but drop right off as bottom 6 with lesser skilled linemates.  I certainly hope that RHP isn't like that - but at the moment we have no idea.  

 

It would be remarkable if Hughes just managed to turn Webers albatross contract into a 50-60 pt guy.  


Despite a big frame and apparently good wheels, he has fairly horrible numbers. Low assist totals suggest sub-NHL hockey sense. I’ll be delighted if he turns out to be a quality 2nd-liner, but realism suggests we should temper our expectations- as your Pitlick analogy implies. Likely he is a Jonas Hoglund type borderline player, not good enough offensively to take a top-6 role, not strong enough defensively to be a grinder (hockey sense, again). Which is why we were able to acquire him for a used jock strap.

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6 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:


Despite a big frame and apparently good wheels, he has fairly horrible numbers. Low assist totals suggest sub-NHL hockey sense. I’ll be delighted if he turns out to be a quality 2nd-liner, but realism suggests we should temper our expectations- as your Pitlick analogy implies. Likely he is a Jonas Hoglund type borderline player, not good enough offensively to take a top-6 role, not strong enough defensively to be a grinder (hockey sense, again). Which is why we were able to acquire him for a used jock strap.

 

I read the exact opposite into that though.  i.e. its probably the lack of hockey sense of the bottom 6 guys that they play with is what keeps their points down.  ex:  Pitlick put up a lot of points playing with Nick and Cole.  Meanwhile, Pitlick gets way less points playing with Pezzetta's.  Similar with RHP who's doing awesome with Nick, but how will he be without him?  Hopefully similar, but we have no idea right now.

 

Hoglund is an odd example, but also similar.  I don't think he was ever used correctly or for long enough in the NHL. He always did really well for Sweden.  Lehks is another similar example, as is Danault.  Lehks never put up a ton of points with the Habs, but is with the Avs.  Same with Danault with the Kings.  Gurianov might be like them, especially with the Habs not actively trying to make the playoffs..

 

 

8 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

The guy is RFA so if we don’t like him we can not qualify him and take the compensation - which I think is a 5th rounder. 
 

Or maybe he clicks…,

 

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure if they don't qualify him he becomes a UFA and walks so they'd get nothing.

 

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1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Its not just TOI but the quality of his linemates ...

 

True ... but the question of WHY he lost the TOI and "line ranking" remains open ... looking forward to seeing what he can do.

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I love it!

 

Gurianov was in my opinion one of the best players in Dallas in the playoffs when they lost the finals to Tampa. 2020?

 

His decline since then, to me is one of the most surprising developments in the leauge.

 

His speed, puckhandling and release should be perfect for what the modern NHL is heading.

 

And remember, this guy is only 25. From the same draft class as McDavid.

 

The potential is huge and the cost was low! 

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2 hours ago, GHT120 said:

True ... but the question of WHY he lost the TOI and "line ranking" remains open ... looking forward to seeing what he can do.

 

I tend to think that his decline was more about being under a lot of pressure and being punished for any small mistakes he made.  Dallas is similar to the Habs in that sense where they try to make the playoffs every year.  Some years they are a bubble team so even 1 mistake can lead to a goal against and 1 game lost could potentially cause them to miss the playoffs.  The young players are under a lot of pressure.  If they make small mistakes they drop down to a lower line and their TOI get limited which results in them getting less points.   

 

Also, I believe young Russian players likely have a preference to play in Montreal.  Out of all 32 cities, Montreal would be the most similar to European cities.  Plus, there is a lot of Russians in Montreal too.  Not sure if anyone else heard this, but Romy spent X-mas with Sorkin .... at Shisterkin's place.  He reached out and invited them over.  I thought that was cool, but also funny.  I'm not sure how either of their teams felt about that.  

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36 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Exactly ... he is, I believe, owed a $2.9M qualifying offer ... he has 23 games to show he is worth it (or an otherwise negotiated extension).

Right, $2.9M is correct. So we have a few different scenarios:

  1. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov accepts
  2. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov rejects and takes the Habs into arbitration (I don't expect he would get much more though) and Habs accept the result
  3. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov rejects and takes the Habs into arbitration and Habs reject the result, he becomes UFA
  4. Habs don't tender a qualifying offer, Gurianov becomes a UFA and signs for (somewhat) less with the Habs
  5. Habs don't tender a qualifying offer, Gurianov becomes a UFA and signs with some team for ... how much?

If I understand the QO rules correctly, the Habs can also negotiate a new contract with him prior to the end of the season, that is not subject to the QO minimum. So, the Habs could offer him a $1.5-2.0M one- or two-year contract at a more reasonable amount, subject to him willing to accept it. (I do expect that his agent is already telling him that he's not going to fetch $3M on the UFA market.)

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3 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I read the exact opposite into that though.  i.e. its probably the lack of hockey sense of the bottom 6 guys that they play with is what keeps their points down.  ex:  Pitlick put up a lot of points playing with Nick and Cole.  Meanwhile, Pitlick gets way less points playing with Pezzetta's.  Similar with RHP who's doing awesome with Nick, but how will he be without him?  Hopefully similar, but we have no idea right now.

 

Hoglund is an odd example, but also similar.  I don't think he was ever used correctly or for long enough in the NHL. He always did really well for Sweden.  Lehks is another similar example, as is Danault.  Lehks never put up a ton of points with the Habs, but is with the Avs.  Same with Danault with the Kings.  Gurianov might be like them, especially with the Habs not actively trying to make the playoffs..

 

 

 

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure if they don't qualify him he becomes a UFA and walks so they'd get nothing.

 

 

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Correct.  There's no compensation if he's non-tendered.


No idea where I got that idea from then!

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@tomh009, thanks.  I was going to ask that because I'm was pretty sure he would be eligible for arbitration.  I believe qualifying offer's are linked with arbitration eligibility. 

 

I'm thinking 4 - which is what happened with Pitlick.   He will probably be similar, where they wont want to lose him, but also wont want to risk what he might be awarded.  In the same sense as Pitlick, he still hasn't proven enough to get a big $ contract or for many years either.  Teams probably wont be quick to snap him up.  He could potentially be a steal if he works out and they can sign him for cheap to a multi year deal.    

 

  

8 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

 


No idea where I got that idea from then!

 

You were probably confusing it with an RFA offer sheet.  Those get compensation.  

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3 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I read the exact opposite into that though.  i.e. its probably the lack of hockey sense of the bottom 6 guys that they play with is what keeps their points down.  ex:  Pitlick put up a lot of points playing with Nick and Cole.  Meanwhile, Pitlick gets way less points playing with Pezzetta's.  Similar with RHP who's doing awesome with Nick, but how will he be without him?  Hopefully similar, but we have no idea right now.

 

 

But if Pitlick and Gurianov are so effective as top-6 FWs, why not keep them there?

 

Look at Caufield. He was garbage on the bottom lines where Coach Bozo consigned him. Once he had a crack with Suzuki, no one was going to move him from there. He is a beast. 

 

If a player is truly excellent in a top-6 role, coaches aren't going to move them, unless the coach is stupid, trying to teach the player a lesson, or has some other agenda. Something is amiss with guys like Pitlick and Gurianov that they cannot stick in those roles. I don't know if "hockey sense" is the issue; in Gurianov's case, I just observed that he has really low assist totals, suggesting a guy who doesn't see the ice or use his teammates very well. What I do know is that if they were convincing top-liners, they'd have been used as such during their several NHL seasons.

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11 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Right, $2.9M is correct. So we have a few different scenarios:

  1. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov accepts
  2. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov rejects and takes the Habs into arbitration (I don't expect he would get much more though) and Habs accept the result
  3. Habs tender a $2.9M qualifying offer, Gurianov rejects and takes the Habs into arbitration and Habs reject the result, he becomes UFA
  4. Habs don't tender a qualifying offer, Gurianov becomes a UFA and signs for (somewhat) less with the Habs
  5. Habs don't tender a qualifying offer, Gurianov becomes a UFA and signs with some team for ... how much?

If I understand the QO rules correctly, the Habs can also negotiate a new contract with him prior to the end of the season, that is not subject to the QO minimum. So, the Habs could offer him a $1.5-2.0M one- or two-year contract at a more reasonable amount, subject to him willing to accept it. (I do expect that his agent is already telling him that he's not going to fetch $3M on the UFA market.)

 

A note on #3, the walk-away threshold for arbitration is going to be in the $4.5M range this summer.  He's not getting that from an arbitrator.  I'd boil the options down to two, actually.

 

1) Habs sign him before the QO deadline to a deal well below his qualifier.  That deal can be negotiated at any time.

2) He's not qualified and goes to free agency.

 

11 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

@tomh009, thanks.  I was going to ask that because I'm was pretty sure he would be eligible for arbitration.  I believe qualifying offer's are linked with arbitration eligibility.

 

There isn't really a link between the two other than sometimes, the presence of arbitration rights will scare a team off from issuing one.  Qualifying offers are owed to any restricted free agent based on their previous year's salary regardless of their arbitration eligibility or lack thereof.

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49 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

If these practice lines translate to the game then Gurianov is going to get a good look. 
 

Hoping that he is the answer that allows Dach to stay centre. 

He is reputed to have a good shot. If that's the case, Suzuki should be in good shape with two good shooters on his wings. Even with Caufield in place of Hoffman, it would make the pass that much less predictable and more effective.

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