Jump to content

What are the expectations for these four drafted players


REV-G

Recommended Posts

Since we're waiting for the final games of this very unique 2022-23 season to be played out I thought I'd ask those of you who have followed some of our drafted players closer what you think the realistic NHL expectations are of these 4 players. I'm wondering if they have top six forward potential, top 4 defencemen potential, or are they going to find it difficult to translate their NCAA or junior success to the NHL? I'm interested to hear what you think? 

 

1. Lane Hutson

 

2. Joshua Roy

 

3. Riley Kidney

 

4. Logan Mailloux

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll take a wild-ass guess:

1. Top 4D, first unit PP QB

 

2. Middle 6

 

3. Bottom 6, maybe leaning to 3rd llne

 

4. Wild card ... his being limited to 31 games over the 20/21 and 21/22 seasons (and 19 of those being overseas) has IMO impacted his development ... from all reports he is currently at best a 5-6-7 NHL-D defensively, but has obvious offensive skills ... he likely needs a season in Laval to hone his defensive game and see how he stands up to defending against men (i.e., less physical advantage) before it is fair to project him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Hutson and Mailloux are boom or bust prospects - they could be first pairing offensive stars or barely serviceable NHLers. Hutson especially at this point is putting up superstar numbers but his size might not translate to the pros.

 

Roy and Kidney are probably third liners at best, but they could break out and surprise us.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hutson - The range of outcomes is so wide and there are so few comparables that anything is basically a wild guess.  I think with his defensive limitations, he's not going to be a true top-pairing guy even if he racks up the points so I'd peg his ceiling as a second-pairing player with loads of PP time.

 

Roy - Complementary middle-six winger.  I don't think he's a play-driver in the NHL as he is in junior.  But, the hockey sense is there and as we saw at the World Juniors in both tournaments, he fits with some top forwards.  He's the type of player that could get shuffled around a lot.

 

Kidney - He's one that I think will have some difficulty transitioning to the pros.  I don't think he sticks at centre and it's going to take some time for him to figure out how to produce against bigger and smarter competition.  Whereas Roy could move through the system quickly into that middle-six role, Kidney, who has a similar middle-six ceiling, is going to take longer to get there.

 

Mailloux - The raw upside is there for him to be a top-pairing player if everything came together.  I don't think that's going to happen.  His defensive concerns will limit him unless he is able to take some steps forward.  (And with how much time he has missed, that's definitely possible as a player whose development might be a bit slowed down.)  I think his realistic upside is a second-pairing d-man but if you have Hutson in a similar spot, Mailloux might be one who drops to the third pairing (as a Hutson-Mailloux pairing at even strength is probably asking for trouble).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great post, I've been constantly re-calibrating my expectations on these 4 myself. For one reason or another they all make you pump the brakes on getting hyped up, Hutson with his size, Mailloux with his playing time, and I have a hard time trusting QMJHL production on dominant teams.

 

I have way higher hopes for the two defense prospects. St. Louis and Robidas have shown they can develop defense this year and Laval has done so too with Barron and Trudeau, so I'm a bit bullish on those two. It'll likely take a couple more years, but I'm hoping (and I think it's reasonable) for one bonified top 4 defender and another 4/5 type out of those two.

 

Everything else is gravy IMO. The Q is so top heavy, those dominant teams always inflate individual scoring. I mean both Gatineau and Sherbrooke have +100 goal differentials. Not exactly a league with any parity. I'm not getting too excited about the Q forwards until they break the door down......Farrell on the other hand has me very interested

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Hutson - The range of outcomes is so wide and there are so few comparables that anything is basically a wild guess.  I think with his defensive limitations, he's not going to be a true top-pairing guy even if he racks up the points so I'd peg his ceiling as a second-pairing player with loads of PP time.

 

Roy - Complementary middle-six winger.  I don't think he's a play-driver in the NHL as he is in junior.  But, the hockey sense is there and as we saw at the World Juniors in both tournaments, he fits with some top forwards.  He's the type of player that could get shuffled around a lot.

 

Kidney - He's one that I think will have some difficulty transitioning to the pros.  I don't think he sticks at centre and it's going to take some time for him to figure out how to produce against bigger and smarter competition.  Whereas Roy could move through the system quickly into that middle-six role, Kidney, who has a similar middle-six ceiling, is going to take longer to get there.

 

Mailloux - The raw upside is there for him to be a top-pairing player if everything came together.  I don't think that's going to happen.  His defensive concerns will limit him unless he is able to take some steps forward.  (And with how much time he has missed, that's definitely possible as a player whose development might be a bit slowed down.)  I think his realistic upside is a second-pairing d-man but if you have Hutson in a similar spot, Mailloux might be one who drops to the third pairing (as a Hutson-Mailloux pairing at even strength is probably asking for trouble).

I’m hoping Hutson will continue to overcome the size issue and questions. The question is whether his hockey smarts, skill level and ability to avoid getting hammered allows him to be a legit second, or even top pairing guy. Rafalski was considered too small - particularly for the period he played in and was a solid second pairing guy who could slide up. Krug was even smaller and has a solid career as a second pairing guy who can also slide into a top pairing role.
 

On raw skill, Hutson looks to be way ahead of where they were at the same age. The question is whether he can add  at least another 15lb to his frame over the next couple of years AND still retain his speed and agility. It’s hard getting a handle on his actual size. I’ve seen him listed anywhere from 5’7” to 5’10’ and between 155lb to 168lb. I’ve never seen him play a full game, but on clips and shift compilations, I actually see a lot of Makar and Fox in him. That’s probably hoping for too much, but if he comes close to that type of player, we could have a pretty decent D in a few years. I can’t see all of Guhle, Hutson, Harris, WiFi, and Barron becoming legit top 4 D for a GOOD team (as opposed to being forced into that role because of zero depth). But even if 3 of them make it as legit top 4 Dmen, we should finally have a solid D in a couple of years.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I too have higher hopes for the Dmen.  I think Mailloux will probably end up being the best of the four.   I think there is a good chance he becomes a top pairing defenceman.  He's the first round pick and who knows how much of a setback he suffers due to missing so many games.  But I think he can overcome that.

 

Predicting Hutson's future seems like making wild guesses.  I think the most likely outcome for him is something like Mete.

 

  I guess Roy will end up as a solid 3rd line player and Kidney will be a bottom 6 player if he makes it.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put Hutson in the same category as Harris, but with a higher offensive/points ceiling. Mete was picked later in the draft and was always a long shot.

Harris: 5'11"/190lbs

Hutson: 5'10"/161lbs

 

I am high on Mailloux, he dropped so late in the draft because of the off-ice stuff. If he is given every chance to develop in the AHL, he could be a solid NHL 2nd pair RD

 

Roy and KIdney, I have not followed much. I am hoping that Slafkovsky, Beck, Gurianov, Ylonen establish themselves ahead so that they push the overall skill level of Habs up. How many 3rd liners can the Habs carry ? (I know 3, ...)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I put Hutson in the same category as Harris, but with a higher offensive/points ceiling. Mete was picked later in the draft and was always a long shot.

Harris: 5'11"/190lbs

Hutson: 5'10"/161lbs

Remember that you are comparing a 19yo player to a nearly 23yo one. Hutson will definitely put on some weight yet, and possibly is not quite done growing yet, either.

 

The big question is what his defensive ability is. He is an offensive force, and that's how his team is using him. Would he be able to defend better given the chance and the right direction? We shall see ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Remember that you are comparing a 19yo player to a nearly 23yo one. Hutson will definitely put on some weight yet, and possibly is not quite done growing yet, either.

 

The big question is what his defensive ability is. He is an offensive force, and that's how his team is using him. Would he be able to defend better given the chance and the right direction? We shall see ...

 

yes, that is what I meant. I expect Hutson to bulk up to where Harris is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hutson doesnt have a comparable in the Habs recent history.

 

You cant compare him to Mete or Harris, they dont have close to the offence he has.

 

Hes breaking records for a teenage defenceman that were set by Brian Leetch.  They are 30.year old records and set in a higher scoring era.

 

This doesnt mean he will make it.

 

But the comparables arent great.

 

The best comparable right now isnt in Montreal.  Hes in Vancouver and hes doing pretty good in Quinn Hughes.  Now even then Hughes had a bit more defensively... but thats the type of skating and offensive game im seeing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He is one shifty little d-man and fun to watch, thats all i know.

(i keep thinking a Caufield that plays d)

 

What will he do next year in the NCAA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

... I sure as hell wouldn’t mind Quinn Hughes on our team for a decade. 

 

MB et al could have had him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

How can he learn to defend? I can’t imagine Caufield playing defence. He would get squashed 

 

Hutson won't be a physical specimen boxing players out or even anchoring a penalty kill but he has a long way to go in terms of reading plays and even his edge work in transition as he's prone to getting beat wide by attackers even with his speed.  Using his stick more effectively in board battles and passing lanes is also definitely doable.  Improving the fundamentals like that make it easier for a coach to throw him out there for bigger minutes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Better than Cale Makar

 

Better than Quinn Hughes

 

Better than Owen Power

 

Better offensively than literally any defenceman who played junior, College or europe for 1 season after their draft

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

 

Better than Cale Makar

 

Better than Quinn Hughes

 

Better than Owen Power

 

Better offensively than literally any defenceman who played junior, College or europe for 1 season after their draft


Arousing stuff 😍

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Neech said:

I can't wait to see Hutson zipping the puck around on the powerplay ...

Maybe will 12 months from now?

Especially if he improves on this years play, which might make for quite a fun year to follow, with another world juniors to play in also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...