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GAME#73 Habs vs Columbus 7pm March 25 2023


DON

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3 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I've been saying for a while now that RHP is the real deal and his points aren't a fluke.  Watch him closely, he's constantly doing all the right things at the right time and in the right spots.  That doesn't mean that he's a 1st or 2nd liner, but he is a legit NHLer.  I could see him scoring 18-24 g on the 3rd line.  

 

I'm not sure that there's such a thing as an 18-24-goal third-liner.  That's second-line production for sure. 

 

It's worth noting that with the three goals tonight, his shooting percentage is up over 25% now.  That's unsustainable even for the best of players.  He's the type of player whose shot types and locations means he should be ahead of the league average (which typically is in the 8-9% range) but not to that extent.

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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'm not sure that there's such a thing as an 18-24-goal third-liner.  That's second-line production for sure. 

 

It's worth noting that with the three goals tonight, his shooting percentage is up over 25% now.  That's unsustainable even for the best of players.  He's the type of player whose shot types and locations means he should be ahead of the league average (which typically is in the 8-9% range) but not to that extent.

 

By 3rd liner I mean the shutdown/checking line.  

 

His shooting % will drop, but not by as much as most people would think.  RHP doesnt take a lot of useless shots from far and outside.  The majority of his shots are high danger areas from around the hash marks.  He scores a lot because he's in close and front and center and has a quick release.  If he misses the net it doesn't count as a shot.  

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26 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

His shooting % will drop, but not by as much as most people would think.  RHP doesnt take a lot of useless shots from far and outside.  The majority of his shots are high danger areas from around the hash marks.  He scores a lot because he's in close and front and center and has a quick release.  If he misses the net it doesn't count as a shot.  

 

It should drop to the 14% or so range which is where his career AHL average is.  (It's actually lower than that this season in Laval as he has tried to shoot more.)  That's still way above NHL average.  It's hard for a non-volume shooter to get 20+ goals - not impossible (Byron did it twice) - but there aren't a lot of players that can pull that off.

 

18 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I'm watching the CBJ feed and much earlier in the game they brought up that the Bell Center has to provide a backup goalie.  i.e. CBJ don't have a backup G with them.  

 

Teams don't bring their EBUG's on the road.  Whoever the emergency goalie is at the arena that night is the emergency goalie for both teams.  (Like when Toronto's zamboni driver suited up for Carolina.)  Columbus had their backup goalie with them in Hutchinson but didn't have a third-stringer on the active roster so had Hutchinson got hurt, Montreal's EBUG would have signed with the Blue Jackets and played.

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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

It should drop to the 14% or so range which is where his career AHL average is.  (It's actually lower than that this season in Laval as he has tried to shoot more.)  That's still way above NHL average.  It's hard for a non-volume shooter to get 20+ goals - not impossible (Byron did it twice) - but there aren't a lot of players that can pull that off.

He's scoring at a 0.33 goals/game pace right now. At 14% it'd be about 0.18 goals/game, or about 15 goals per season. That would be perfectly respectable on a third line, I think. (It's worth remembering, though, that he would not have Suzuki next to him on that third line.)

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37 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

He's scoring at a 0.33 goals/game pace right now. At 14% it'd be about 0.18 goals/game, or about 15 goals per season. That would be perfectly respectable on a third line, I think. (It's worth remembering, though, that he would not have Suzuki next to him on that third line.)

 

Exactly, but with the way he takes high danger shots I doubt his S% will drop that low.  I think he'll get a min of 15, more like 18-20 on the 3rd line.  Plus, he could get time on the 2nd PP unit and get more.

 

With the way RHP is in the right spots etc I don think it will matter that much if he isn't with Suzuki.  Sure, playing with Nick doesn't hurt and he'd get even more points, but he should put up decent #'s without him.

 

Most people seem to compare him to Gallagher, but I do not.  @dlbalrmentioned Byron, and RHP reminds me more of him than Gally.  I view him as a bigger, heavier, tougher and less injury prone replacement for Byron.  

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15 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Exactly, but with the way he takes high danger shots I doubt his S% will drop that low.  I think he'll get a min of 15, more like 18-20 on the 3rd line.  Plus, he could get time on the 2nd PP unit and get more.

 

There are a total of five active NHL players with a career shooting percentage of 16% and all of them are of the high-end variety - Draisaitl, Point, Stamkos, Scheifele, and Rantanen.  There are only seven others at 15% or higher for their careers and six of them are recent all-stars; one of them is right at 15.0% even.  Not thinking that Harvey-Pinard's shooting percentage will drop to 14% means you're thinking he'll be closer to this group.  I get the point of his shot locations and frequencies - I noted them myself earlier - but anything above 14% on average is on the very optimistic side.  A one-off here and there like Byron?  Sure, that's reasonable.  But you have to be a pretty good shooter consistently to be in that range.  I don't think Harvey-Pinard is at that level.

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/shot_pct_career.html

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17:15/game in 29 games for Harvey-Pinard, not sure what winger depth will look like come the fall, but assume he wont see as much icetime with healthy roster?

 

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13 hours ago, Neech said:

4 points for Slick Nick, 3 for Mad Dog Matheson. If we're going to pick up points it might as well be a blowout at home. Let's lose every game from here on out except for Thursday vs Florida!

 

Agree 100%, save the big effort for Florida.  I am fine if they go 1-8 in their remaining 9 games. 

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2 hours ago, DON said:

17:15/game in 29 games for Harvey-Pinard, not sure what winger depth will look like come the fall, but assume he wont see as much icetime with healthy roster?

 

That would be a very safe assumption, yes.

 

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I skipped this game too, I am glad for RHP.

 

Seems like Drouin on the wing is not getting points anymore. I guess that was it for his flash before the end of the season.

 

Let's hope for another loosing streak starts soon.

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5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Two games without points isn’t exactly a drought yet. Suzuki, for example, went three games and then two games without points, just this month.

 

I haven't watched the last two games, so I cannot voice an opinion on Drouin. But he was going at a PPG clip before. I wonder if he needs to be carrying the puck to be engaged: he is probably clueless without the puck

 

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34 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I haven't watched the last two games, so I cannot voice an opinion on Drouin. But he was going at a PPG clip before. I wonder if he needs to be carrying the puck to be engaged: he is probably clueless without the puck

 

2020-21 44games 2g 21a

2022-23 48games 2g 25a

 

I didnt recall him having vey similar offense 2 years ago.

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22 minutes ago, DON said:

2020-21 44games 2g 21a

2022-23 48games 2g 25a

 

I didnt recall him having vey similar offense 2 years ago.

LOL

he has something like 19 points in the last 20 or 25 games

They were talking about it on RDS last week almost daily

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