2023-24 Montreal Canadiens Discussion Thread

[DON]

Not sure is any (ever?) 6'3" 230lb NHL player who would be described as "quick".

Like a Paul Byron or Newhook would be.

[tomh009]

7 minutes ago, DON said:

Not sure is any (ever?) 6'3" 230lb NHL player who would be described as "quick".

Like a Paul Byron or Newhook would be.

There is a difference between acceleration and top speed, though. I suspect Newhook will accelerate faster than Slafkovsky, but maybe Slafkovsky's power will allow him to ultimately reach a higher speed?

[tomh009]

23 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Other cool stats that I read this morning are that Habs are tied with Boston for best goalie stats with Allen leading the way.

Treat the GSAx numbers with a grain of salt, as there is no absolute truth to the "x" number, different stats sites will have significantly higher or lower numbers there. For example, Moneypuck is much more conservative. Here are their numbers for Boston:

 

And the Habs:

 

So, 10.7 GSAx for Boston, rather than 14.7--and 2.9 for Montreal, rather than 14.7!  Naturalstattrick has 11.1 for Boston and 7.14 for Montreal.

 

Who is correct? Or at least closest to reality? That's a great question ...

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

36 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Treat the GSAx numbers with a grain of salt, as there is no absolute truth to the "x" number, different stats sites will have significantly higher or lower numbers there. For example, Moneypuck is much more conservative. Here are their numbers for Boston:

 

And the Habs:

 

So, 10.7 GSAx for Boston, rather than 14.7--and 2.9 for Montreal, rather than 14.7!  Naturalstattrick has 11.1 for Boston and 7.14 for Montreal.

 

Who is correct? Or at least closest to reality? That's a great question ...

 

Interesting breakdown Tom. 
 

Looking at stats this way sure paints a different picture. Not sure what the best methods are for measuring stats like this. 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Interesting breakdown Tom. 
 

Looking at stats this way sure paints a different picture. Not sure what the best methods are for measuring stats like this. 

Yeah. We'll see whether the numbers converge at all as the season goes on.

 

I like Topdownhockey (Patrick Bacon) but a +9.8 for Allen in four games sure feels high.

[Commandant]

four games including one that was bad (the Leafs game), so I don't buy the 9.8 number. 

 

Moneypuck's 3.5 number seems more accurate.

[hab29RETIRED]

2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Treat the GSAx numbers with a grain of salt, as there is no absolute truth to the "x" number, different stats sites will have significantly higher or lower numbers there. For example, Moneypuck is much more conservative. Here are their numbers for Boston:

 

And the Habs:

 

So, 10.7 GSAx for Boston, rather than 14.7--and 2.9 for Montreal, rather than 14.7!  Naturalstattrick has 11.1 for Boston and 7.14 for Montreal.

 

Who is correct? Or at least closest to reality? That's a great question ...

 

Too small of a sample size for me to really care about these goaltending stats at this point, or how they compare to Boston, Tampa, Vegas or whoever. Given where Allen is at in his career, his history suggests that this is his hot streak period. We will probably see regression back to a cold at some point soon. Right now let’s just enjoy the wins while they are coming, and hopefully he can stay hot enough while we have our veteran D out. 
 

I think we know what we have with Allen, I’m more interested in knowing if either Montembeault or Premieau can potentially be longer term solutions to be a future starters or backup when the team is ready to compete.

[DON]

FWIW: Top 2019 draft folks to date.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I’ve been mulling this over, and let me know if I am off-base…but I’m a little bit worried about the rebuild.

 

This team has been doing well, surprising teams, looking good. That’s great. But when I look at this group, what do I see? A team on which veterans like Allen, Monahan and Matheson are playing absolutely key, high-impact roles, and on which Old Man Pearson has been surprisingly important contributor. Of these only Matheson (age 29) may still be contributing 2-3 years from now, when presumably we’re meant to contend. Meanwhile, if you just isolate the young FW unit we have, we see two locks and a bunch of total question marks. Other than Slick Nick (#1A C) and Goal Caufield (absolutely elite) none of the young FWs have contributed much this season, and certainly none of them have shown any signs of becoming difference-makers in any discernable way. Dach may be a stud C, but injuries make him a massive question mark going forward; he cannot be counted on. 

 

The D is unquestionably better. Lots of young talent to like there. But I’m having a lot of trouble seeing anything resembling the embryo of a Cup-calibre FW unit here.

 

I know, I know, we’re only 10 games in. But I’m not seeing enough from Newhook or Slaf to convince me that their ceilings are all that high. I have the uneasy feeling we blew our #1 overall pick; surely a really good prospect should be showing us something with some amount of regularity? And I don’t believe RHP or Ylonen are ever going to amount to anything.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

Suzuki’s 24…we’ve got 6 years until he’s 30. The window to become contenders cannot, therefore, be much more than another 2-3 years at most, IMHO. Remember, a contending team usually needs multiple seasons of being contenders before it punches through. So we probably don’t have all that much time to draft and develop new stud FWs within Suzuki’s window. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hab29RETIRED]

I think Newhook and potentilly Slafkovsky will be good supporting players- but supportive players than can be very productive with the right linemates. I see Dach (if he fully recovers and comes back strong) as a key to our future forward group. I still think Dach may even become the 1A centre, and Suzuki the 1B. Roy is key young player that is probably the next prospect I come up. Too early to tell with the others. I’m HOPEFUL that Anderson’s productivity in Laval will finally translate at the NHL level, 

 

we don’t have anyone else from our young prospects playing on the team right now - so it’s to early to tell. 
 

if Slafkovsky doesn’t became a 30+ goal guy, than we will Be in trouble. I wonder if we had drafted Cooley instead of this year we would have taken a shot at Michkov?? It could be that they felt that they already rolled the dice on Slafkovsky on the previous draft to take another potential risk last year, so they went with the safer pick???

 

as far as the D, it’s too early to tell, but we do have a lot of lottery balls. I remember in the 80’s some said Kurvers would be become better than or just as good as Chelios. Never happened. Svoboda was supposed to be a first pairing dman, and while he was a good dman, never became a star. It’s too hard to say with young dman. I do hope Hutson becomes as dominant as higjes, Makar or Fox.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I think Newhook and potentilly Slafkovsky will be good supporting players- but supportive players than can be very productive with the right linemates. I see Dach (if he fully recovers and comes back strong) as a key to our future forward group. I still think Dach may even become the 1A centre, and Suzuki the 1B. Roy is key young player that is probably the next prospect I come up. Too early to tell with the others. I’m HOPEFUL that Anderson’s productivity in Laval will finally translate at the NHL level, 

 

we don’t have anyone else from our young prospects playing on the team right now - so it’s to early to tell. 
 

if Slafkovsky doesn’t became a 30+ goal guy, than we will Be in trouble. I wonder if we had drafted Cooley instead of this year we would have taken a shot at Michkov?? It could be that they felt that they already rolled the dice on Slafkovsky on the previous draft to take another potential risk last year, so they went with the safer pick???

 

as far as the D, it’s too early to tell, but we do have a lot of lottery balls. I remember in the 80’s some said Kurvers would be become better than or just as good as Chelios. Never happened. Svoboda was supposed to be a first pairing dman, and while he was a good dman, never became a star. It’s too hard to say with young dman. I do hope Hutson becomes as dominant as higjes, Makar or Fox.

 

If Slaf were not a #1 overall pick, I honestly think we'd be looking at him and going, "hmm, maybe a nice 3rd liner after a couple years of AHL seasoning." 1 point in 9 games. I know, I know, he's 19. But I'd like to see SOME sort of offensive upside. You mention Cooley - he's got 6 assists in 8 games. I haven't watched his games, but presumably he is showing some skills suggestive of high-end promise. Not so Slaf. Usually an impact prospect shows you something. In 50 NHL games, Slaf has shown practically nothing at all.

 

Dach: he absolutely HAS to (a) recover 100% from his injury and (b) pick up where he left off. I'm not a medical doctor, but I've seen too many young players derailed by less serious injuries to be confident that he can do both. 

 

Newhook can be a good "supporting piece." No doubt. You need those pieces. But I don't think two high-end FWs are enough for a contender.

 

In short, when it comes to the FW unit, I don't like these odds. Maybe Roy can be something. Maybe not. 

 

By contrast, with the D we have a critical mass. As you say, some may hit and some may miss (Harris seems to be reverting to what we expected, for example) but my feeling is we can be pretty confident of having a strong D corps within 2-3 years. I can't say the same about the FW unit as a whole.

 

Again, if the goal is to have a recurring contender over a number of years during the life of Suzuki's contract - and who knows, maybe that's not the goal? - we perhaps have less runway than we think. 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I’m betting that once Dvorak is back and Monahan is centring Slaf and Newhook that we see much better output. 
 

Newhook is not a centre but he has filled in admirably. he was a different player on Dach’s wing and so was Slafkovsky. 
 

Monahan can drive the second line

 

Unless Marty is a madman and puts Monahan with Suzuki 

 

I wouldn’t mind if they tried Pearson with Suzuki and Anderson with Dvorak, Gallagher. 

[hab29RETIRED]

9 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I’m betting that once Dvorak is back and Monahan is centring Slaf and Newhook that we see much better output. 
 

Newhook is not a centre but he has filled in admirably. he was a different player on Dach’s wing and so was Slafkovsky. 
 

Monahan can drive the second line

 

Unless Marty is a madman and puts Monahan with Suzuki 

 

I wouldn’t mind if they tried Pearson with Suzuki and Anderson with Dvorak, Gallagher. 

I’m not sure why we don’t give Slafkovsky a look on the Suzuki line. He looked really effective with Dach. I think playing him with Anderson who doesn’t seem to fit with anyone isn’t helping him any.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

3 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I’m not sure why we don’t give Slafkovsky a look on the Suzuki line. He looked really effective with Dach. I think playing him with Anderson who doesn’t seem to fit with anyone isn’t helping him any.

I am all for it. 
 

I bet the hesitation is Slaf’s defensive game sucks and he turns the puck over too much. Not a perfect fit for playing against other teams top lines and D pairings 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

22 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I’m not sure why we don’t give Slafkovsky a look on the Suzuki line. He looked really effective with Dach. I think playing him with Anderson who doesn’t seem to fit with anyone isn’t helping him any.

 

I feel the same way. It really hurt him when Dach went down. I think playing with a couple high IQ players would really help him.  Why not try it? 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

I know many don't have a lot of faith in +/- stats.  Right now Quinn Hughes is leading the league with +10, Gaiden Guhle is tied for 3rd with +8.  He can't be messing up too much. 

[Commandant]

Guhle and Barron's analytics last night were off the charts good.  Like 80% xG range which is crazy.

 

Guhle's numbers have been good all year.  

 

Last year they sucked but he mostly played with Savard, whose numbers suck no matter who hes with.

 

Guhle is a stud. No worries about him at all.

[BCHabnut]

7 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Guhle and Barron's analytics last night were off the charts good.  Like 80% xG range which is crazy.

 

Guhle's numbers have been good all year.  

 

Last year they sucked but he mostly played with Savard, whose numbers suck no matter who hes with.

 

Guhle is a stud. No worries about him at all.

Guhle and dach are my two favorite new guys in the last 2 years. Guhle really is a stud. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Everything about Guhle screams Shea Weber which is quite the compliment. 
 

We got a first pairing Dman for a long time

[DON]

Not sure i totally agree, but sure.

 

https://cheeringthelogo.ca/2023/10/30/you-remind-me-of-someone/

 

Harris = Gorges

Barron = Brisbois

Slafkovski= John Leclair

Guhle = Weber-like

Xhekaj= McSourley

Caufield= Karyia

Suzuki= Muller/Walter

 

 

 

 

 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Everything about Guhle screams Shea Weber which is quite the compliment. 
 

We got a first pairing Dman for a long time

 

I can see that.  Weber without the slap shot.

 

Guhle is more mobile than Weber we saw in Montreal, but early career Weber is very similar.

[Plutarch]

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I’ve been mulling this over, and let me know if I am off-base…but I’m a little bit worried about the rebuild.

 

This team has been doing well, surprising teams, looking good. That’s great. But when I look at this group, what do I see? A team on which veterans like Allen, Monahan and Matheson are playing absolutely key, high-impact roles, and on which Old Man Pearson has been surprisingly important contributor. Of these only Matheson (age 29) may still be contributing 2-3 years from now, when presumably we’re meant to contend. Meanwhile, if you just isolate the young FW unit we have, we see two locks and a bunch of total question marks. Other than Slick Nick (#1A C) and Goal Caufield (absolutely elite) none of the young FWs have contributed much this season, and certainly none of them have shown any signs of becoming difference-makers in any discernable way. Dach may be a stud C, but injuries make him a massive question mark going forward; he cannot be counted on. 

 

The D is unquestionably better. Lots of young talent to like there. But I’m having a lot of trouble seeing anything resembling the embryo of a Cup-calibre FW unit here.

 

I know, I know, we’re only 10 games in. But I’m not seeing enough from Newhook or Slaf to convince me that their ceilings are all that high. I have the uneasy feeling we blew our #1 overall pick; surely a really good prospect should be showing us something with some amount of regularity? And I don’t believe RHP or Ylonen are ever going to amount to anything.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

Suzuki’s 24…we’ve got 6 years until he’s 30. The window to become contenders cannot, therefore, be much more than another 2-3 years at most, IMHO. Remember, a contending team usually needs multiple seasons of being contenders before it punches through. So we probably don’t have all that much time to draft and develop new stud FWs within Suzuki’s window. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think our rebuild really hinges on the dcore. If we have a top 3 d in the league and decent 1/2 centers in Dach/Suzuki... We can find some wingers in FA to fill slots outside of Caufield.

[alfredoh2009]

12 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I’ve been mulling this over, and let me know if I am off-base…but I’m a little bit worried about the rebuild.

 

This team has been doing well, surprising teams, looking good. That’s great. But when I look at this group, what do I see? A team on which veterans like Allen, Monahan and Matheson are playing absolutely key, high-impact roles, and on which Old Man Pearson has been surprisingly important contributor. Of these only Matheson (age 29) may still be contributing 2-3 years from now, when presumably we’re meant to contend. Meanwhile, if you just isolate the young FW unit we have, we see two locks and a bunch of total question marks. Other than Slick Nick (#1A C) and Goal Caufield (absolutely elite) none of the young FWs have contributed much this season, and certainly none of them have shown any signs of becoming difference-makers in any discernable way. Dach may be a stud C, but injuries make him a massive question mark going forward; he cannot be counted on. 

 

The D is unquestionably better. Lots of young talent to like there. But I’m having a lot of trouble seeing anything resembling the embryo of a Cup-calibre FW unit here.

 

I know, I know, we’re only 10 games in. But I’m not seeing enough from Newhook or Slaf to convince me that their ceilings are all that high. I have the uneasy feeling we blew our #1 overall pick; surely a really good prospect should be showing us something with some amount of regularity? And I don’t believe RHP or Ylonen are ever going to amount to anything.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

Suzuki’s 24…we’ve got 6 years until he’s 30. The window to become contenders cannot, therefore, be much more than another 2-3 years at most, IMHO. Remember, a contending team usually needs multiple seasons of being contenders before it punches through. So we probably don’t have all that much time to draft and develop new stud FWs within Suzuki’s window.

 

this season is going to be a series of hot/cold streaks. Some players are still going to show youth inconsistency, and some veterans will not go all-in (like Savard) and risk an injury on a season where they have no chance to win the cup.

but I am more optimistic than you on the future, if a handful of prospects develop into elite NHL players.

Guhle and Barron are developing well. I was so impressed with Baron the first season when he was traded for. After some time on Laval, he is not showing more maturity in his game.

Caufield is just such a joy to watch, he has improved significantly when playing without the puck. I am very happy how he is able to play along the boards, despite his size. He is very good a retrieving pucks and creating turnovers.

One of Dach, Newhook will establish himslef. It depends on how healthy they are and how much opportunity they get to play lots of minutes.

 

For the rest, I do not see elite talent there, there are some very promising prospects but for the most part, it will be up to HughGort to trade some of the prospects and maybe some picks to get  more talented players: the type needed to win in the playoffs and drive the play during the season.

 

I am hopeful.

[DON]

Bright spots.

Montreal Canadiens Organizational Players of October - EOTP (habseyesontheprize.com)

[alfredoh2009]

going into the 10th game, the Canadiens have a better standing than expected. When sorted using Hockey Refernece's "SRS" (Simple Rating System: a team rating that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in goals above/below average, where zero is average.) they are 22nd: closer to expectations.

Special teams have improved recently, but they are taking too many penalties. The goalies have done better recently, and they will need to continue playing this well if they Habs are hoping to remain so high in the standings.