GDT Game 50 - Canadiens @ Capitals - February 6 - 7 p.m.

[Neech]

Arber has far more offense than Komi ever had, both shooting and passing. If he played next to Markov I'm sure he'd look like a defensive stalwart too (and not have his lunch handed to him when challenged physically).

[TurdBurglar]

1 hour ago, DON said:

I dont think the slap shot is used as once was. 

And Komisarik maybe better comparable? (He just needs a Markov to carry him.)

In all fairness, Toronto found out how good Komisarik was without Markov…

[BCHabnut]

I think the key with Xhekaj, Struble, and Harris will be to make sure that all 3 get enough ice time to develop this season. The tough decision of which one to trade, is likely coming this year. I hope Hughes gets it right. If Xhekaj is Bieksa2.0, I'd sooner keep him. But he's gonna need to stay out of the box to get that chance.

[GHT120]

10 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

I think the key with Xhekaj, Struble, and Harris will be to make sure that all 3 get enough ice time to develop this season. The tough decision of which one to trade, is likely coming this year. I hope Hughes gets it right. If Xhekaj is Bieksa2.0, I'd sooner keep him. But he's gonna need to stay out of the box to get that chance.

Unfortunately that seems at odds with MSL apparently prioritizing winning ... when games are close or the Habs are leading he tends increase the minutes for his three veterans.

[DON]

29 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

I think the key with Xhekaj, Struble, and Harris will be to make sure that all 3 get enough ice time to develop this season. The tough decision of which one to trade, is likely coming this year. I hope Hughes gets it right. If Xhekaj is Bieksa2.0, I'd sooner keep him. But he's gonna need to stay out of the box to get that chance.

 

Bieksa took a few years to figure things out.

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

In all fairness, Toronto found out how good Komisarik was without Markov…

 

Yes, and as Macguire predicted, Markov was EXPOSED without Komisarek to protect him!!! 

 

Exposed as a superlative D-man who carried that POS on his back, that is.

[Sir_Boagalott]

6 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I do not buy into the opinion that Xhekaj is a goon. I believe that he is in the same vein as Anderson and Brady Tkachuk where he is intense and has the body type to push through the other team.

I believe that playing lots of minutes in all kind of situations is the way for him to learn to stay out of the penalty box.

Like Weber-like Ds, having the physicality in his toolbox makes him a great player to keep in the lineup 

 

I absolutely agree and just wait until Florian is ready.  He'll likely end up being better than Andy and will be more similar to Brady but he doesn't have the same skill so he'll get less points.  I think Florian could potentially get 25-30 g/yr and 50-65 pts/yr.

 

I made a comparison in the off season with Florian and Dach due to height and weight and I predicted Florian's stats would jump right up and he'd get close to 30 g this year now that he's 190+ lbs.    HW's top pro scout said that was stupid because Florian had barely got a dozen goals so that would never happen.  Notice that Florian is on pace for 27 g this year which is over double what he got the previous year.

 

 

 

Note: the red line depicts the before and after they got over 190 lbs.  

 

See, Dach wasn't able to get a lot of points in the OHL either until he became 195 lbs.  i.e. they were both 6'-4" bean poles that were weak.  Just wait until Florian is 215+ lbs and see what #'s he puts up.  I'm quite certain that Florian's stats will keep increasing as he continues to add muscle.

 

 

 

 

[Commandant]

LoL a 25-30 goal, 55-65 point guy who cant get a PPG in his D+2 year in the OHL.

 

And the muscle thing, he will literally never have a bigger size and strength advantage against opponents than he does right now.

 

This is dreaming. 

 

I think his max is to be a bottom six pest 

 

Dach is also a horrible comparison considering he was in his 2nd NHL season at the same age Florian is now.  Your comparison to getting over 190 lbs has little to do with weight and more to do with Dach like many struggled as a 16 year old WHL rookie, and then exploded as a 17 year old... 

[Commandant]

It would literally be unprecedented for Florian Xhekaj to score 30g or 60 pts in an NHL season.

 

Not one player in the NHL has ever scored 30g or 60 pts in a season after having as low a PPG in his D+2 season in the CHL.  Not one.

[Sir_Boagalott]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

LoL a 25-30 goal, 55-65 point guy who cant get a PPG in his D+2 year in the OHL.

 

And the muscle thing, he will literally never have a bigger size and strength advantage against opponents than he does right now.

 

This is dreaming. 

 

I think his max is to be a bottom six pest 

 

Dach is also a horrible comparison considering he was in his 2nd NHL season at the same age Florian is now.  Your comparison to getting over 190 lbs has little to do with weight and more to do with Dach like many struggled as a 16 year old WHL rookie, and then exploded as a 17 year old... 

 

That is irrelevant and I never gave it a time frame of when he'll possible out up those #'s.   The average NHL size is 6' 196 lbs.  Florian is 6'4" 190lbs and if he gets to 220 lbs he will have a 4" height advantage and 25lbs weight advantage on a ton of players.  The guys that are 5'-10" 180 lbs it would be up 6" and 40 lbs.   He'll be much larger than most players in the NHL, and will push around quite a few of the guys that are the same size as him.  

 

Believe me you, Florian is still small for his height.  ex:  Lindstrom is 6'4" 215 lbs - he's younger and already has 25 lbs on Florian.  

 

Florian will definitely be a pest but how exactly does that relate to points and what line they play on?  Both Tkachuk's are pests and 1st liners, as is Marchand.   I'll be absolutely shocked if he turns out to be just a 4th liner.  There is no bloody way he's on par with Pezzetta, etc. 

 

He has more skill than that, and he's high in the traits you say are completely unimportant, such as: more size, strength, toughness, and crazy work ethic and will continue to learn and get better.

 

The comparison to Dach is they were both tall scrawny bean poles.  Dach struggled because he was tall and had a high center of gravity and was too weak so he was easily pushed around.  The stronger they get the more they can do physically.  Gaining the muscle definitely helped Dach's style of play, but it will continue to vastly improve Florian's game.   

 

IMHO Tom Wilson would be a decent comparable and he gets 20 g/yr and also isn't a 4th liner.  I tend to think Florian will at least be as good but I expect he'll better than him.  They will be the same height and weight, but Florian is more skilled, has more balls, and relentless truculence.  

[DON]

I never thought Pezzetta would be an NHLer when he was in Sudbury, 4th year had all of 52pts in 62gms; but am guessing Florian would top out as a Pezzetta/4th liner if all the stars align. Same as Arber, he is 'likely' a 3rd pairing/PK guy; but in a couple/5 years maybe become 2nd pairing, who knows?

[Commandant]

At the same age Florian is now, Tom Wilson was an NHL rookie.

 

The year before, he was well over a PPG with 58 points in 48 games.

 

Your comparison is again very bad. Age matters far more than weight, which is often inaccurate.

[alfredoh2009]

37 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

That is irrelevant and I never gave it a time frame of when he'll possible out up those #'s.   The average NHL size is 6' 196 lbs.  Florian is 6'4" 190lbs and if he gets to 220 lbs he will have a 4" height advantage and 25lbs weight advantage on a ton of players.  The guys that are 5'-10" 180 lbs it would be up 6" and 40 lbs.   He'll be much larger than most players in the NHL, and will push around quite a few of the guys that are the same size as him.  

 

Believe me you, Florian is still small for his height.  ex:  Lindstrom is 6'4" 215 lbs - he's younger and already has 25 lbs on Florian.  

 

Florian will definitely be a pest but how exactly does that relate to points and what line they play on?  Both Tkachuk's are pests and 1st liners, as is Marchand.   I'll be absolutely shocked if he turns out to be just a 4th liner.  There is no bloody way he's on par with Pezzetta, etc. 

 

He has more skill than that, and he's high in the traits you say are completely unimportant, such as: more size, strength, toughness, and crazy work ethic and will continue to learn and get better.

 

The comparison to Dach is they were both tall scrawny bean poles.  Dach struggled because he was tall and had a high center of gravity and was too weak so he was easily pushed around.  The stronger they get the more they can do physically.  Gaining the muscle definitely helped Dach's style of play, but it will continue to vastly improve Florian's game.   

 

IMHO Tom Wilson would be a decent comparable and he gets 20 g/yr and also isn't a 4th liner.  I tend to think Florian will at least be as good but I expect he'll better than him.  They will be the same height and weight, but Florian is more skilled, has more balls, and relentless truculence.  

I am a bit more cautious in trying to guess how the younger Wifi ((Bluetooth?) may develop.

But I like the points you are making. Skating is still a big part of the equation for success, but your analysis is very interesting

 

that is why I was bot so high as others on Caufield, and buy a I glad he is proving me wrong 

[BCHabnut]

1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

That is irrelevant and I never gave it a time frame of when he'll possible out up those #'s.   The average NHL size is 6' 196 lbs.  Florian is 6'4" 190lbs and if he gets to 220 lbs he will have a 4" height advantage and 25lbs weight advantage on a ton of players.  The guys that are 5'-10" 180 lbs it would be up 6" and 40 lbs.   He'll be much larger than most players in the NHL, and will push around quite a few of the guys that are the same size as him.  

 

Believe me you, Florian is still small for his height.  ex:  Lindstrom is 6'4" 215 lbs - he's younger and already has 25 lbs on Florian.  

 

Florian will definitely be a pest but how exactly does that relate to points and what line they play on?  Both Tkachuk's are pests and 1st liners, as is Marchand.   I'll be absolutely shocked if he turns out to be just a 4th liner.  There is no bloody way he's on par with Pezzetta, etc. 

 

He has more skill than that, and he's high in the traits you say are completely unimportant, such as: more size, strength, toughness, and crazy work ethic and will continue to learn and get better.

 

The comparison to Dach is they were both tall scrawny bean poles.  Dach struggled because he was tall and had a high center of gravity and was too weak so he was easily pushed around.  The stronger they get the more they can do physically.  Gaining the muscle definitely helped Dach's style of play, but it will continue to vastly improve Florian's game.   

 

IMHO Tom Wilson would be a decent comparable and he gets 20 g/yr and also isn't a 4th liner.  I tend to think Florian will at least be as good but I expect he'll better than him.  They will be the same height and weight, but Florian is more skilled, has more balls, and relentless truculence.  

I'd say he's far far more likely to be a mike McCarron than a Brady Tkachuk.  Based on his current performance.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

12 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

In all fairness, Toronto found out how good Komisarik was without Markov…

Yes, Komy decided to chase the money and in the end it shortened his career. He had the perfect partner for him in Markov but he decided to go to Toronto and was like a fish out of water. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

8 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I absolutely agree and just wait until Florian is ready.  He'll likely end up being better than Andy and will be more similar to Brady but he doesn't have the same skill so he'll get less points.  I think Florian could potentially get 25-30 g/yr and 50-65 pts/yr

 

I think Florian like his brother is a late bloomer and is making nice progress but realistically I think he tops out as an effective 3rd or 4th line guy who could score 12-15 goals/year and be a strong physical presence. It's nice to dream a bit though and I would love to come back and say you were right.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

It would literally be unprecedented for Florian Xhekaj to score 30g or 60 pts in an NHL season.

 

Not one player in the NHL has ever scored 30g or 60 pts in a season after having as low a PPG in his D+2 season in the CHL.  Not one.

Ryan O'Reilly is pretty darn close. He has scored 28 goals twice in the NHL. In his last 2 years of junior he scored 19 and 16 goals.

[Commandant]

7 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Ryan O'Reilly is pretty darn close. He has scored 28 goals twice in the NHL. In his last 2 years of junior he scored 19 and 16 goals.

 

Ryan O'Reilly was in the NHL at 18, immediately after being drafted.

 

At the same age Florian is at now, O'Reilly was playing his 2nd NHL season.

 

So no, the age factor is not comparable, those 19 and 16 goal seasons are his 16 and 17 year old years... not 19.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Ryan O'Reilly was in the NHL at 18, immediately after being drafted.

 

At the same age Florian is at now, O'Reilly was playing his 2nd NHL season.

 

So no, the age factor is not comparable, those 19 and 16 goal seasons are his 16 and 17 year old years... not 19.

That is correct, I forgot O'Reilly started so young in the NHL so not a valid comparison. My bad.

[Commandant]

The closest comparable who actually became offensively productive is Milan Lucic.  That said, he still reached the NHL by the age that Florian is at now, and his 18 year old year is still slightly better than Florian's 19 year old year (and MUCH better than Florian's 18 year old year). 

 

So its really unprecedented to have Florian have the type of development that is suggested here, to the point where I call it dreaming. 

[Sir_Boagalott]

10 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Ryan O'Reilly is pretty darn close. He has scored 28 goals twice in the NHL. In his last 2 years of junior he scored 19 and 16 goals.

 

That is a good example.  No clue why he keeps mentioning age and # of years in Jr in the CHL as being a prerequisite for becoming a decent NHLer.   I was thinking Cale Makar who got 28 g and afaik he didn't even play in the CHL but a Provincial league. I suppose he thinks that Marty is a bottom 6 plug of a hack?  He doesn't meet any of his age pre-requisites and he didn't play in the Q and definitely had 30+ g/yr.  

 

I agree with your comment of late bloomer, and I believe there is more too it than that.

 

What is unprecedented is the fact the entire world shut down for the Covid lockout.  A bunch of young players lost precious time during their critical development years.   i.e. there are likely numerous young players that diamonds in the rough that might have become NHLers but were robbed of their chance due to the lockout.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Commandant]

If you don't understand why age is important to a players development, then really there is no hope for you. 

 

Its the biggest key factor in measuring a player's growth on a year to year basis. 

 

And you keep bringing up ridiculous examples.  Yes Cale Makar played in a Junior A league.  He did that so he could maintain his eligibility for college hockey, not because he wasn't good enough to go in the WHL.  He also completely dominated that league showing he was too advanced for it, and after being drafted was immediately one of the best players in the NCAA.  By Florian's age he was one of the NHL's best rookies, winning the Calder Trophy. 

 

How are you so bad at these comparisons?

 

[Sir_Boagalott]

There are numerous examples of players that are outside of your time frame of what you say *must* happen by a certain age or there is no chance of it happening.   It is not unprecedented for a player to take longer and become a 30 g scorer in the NHL.  ex:  how old was Ryder when he broke into the NHL and was runner up for rookie of the year?  He's a 2 time 30 g scorer and got 35 once, 27 twice and 25 once.  

 

No clue why you insist that its only about how good a player can shoot, skate and pass at their draft year.  Its not like those things aren't practicable and people can't improve on those with time.

 

The Habs should fire their Growth Coach because Cole hasn't grown 4", they need a new Toughness & Grit Coach too because Cole isn't a net hound like Gally.  

 

I'm pretty sure Florian will be better than a 4th liner because he's high in 3 attributes that are vastly important and they happen to be unteachable traits.  Hence why those characteristics are highly desirable and more important than other skills that have coaches.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

There are always some late bloomers, that might not be the norm but it does happen. That's part of what makes scouting an inexact science. 

[DON]

12 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

I'm pretty sure Florian will be better than a 4th liner because he's high in 3 attributes that are vastly important and they happen to be unteachable traits.  Hence why those characteristics are highly desirable and more important than other skills that have coaches.

Hope you are right, but odds arnt in your/his favour.

Even Reinbacher, Beck, Mailloux or Roy, no one can be 'sure' they will become NHL regulars, but odds are much better than Xhekaj.

Why are you pretty sure? I dont understand how you can be, thats all.