2024-25 Montreal Canadiens discussion thread

[Commandant]

Just now, BCHabnut said:

My concern with that, is that the Atlantic is so strong, and they have to play 4 games against all of these powerhouse and up and comer teams. 

 

I think we are better but I still question if we are good enough. 

 

I mean yes, Dach is back, but we had Monahan for 3/4 of last season and he's gone now.  Also we traded him cause we weren't close to the playoffs with him.  If Dach is as good a second line centre as Monahan was, I'd consider this a win. 

 

Outside of that, our injuries weren't anything special.... they are the normal injuries that any NHL team should expect, and we may not know who, but we should expect a similar level of injuries and impact this year.  That's just the nature of contact sports. 

 

So what have we added? Laine.  Nice pickup, and he helps.  But I'm not sure he gets us from 5th worst in the league to in the playoffs. 

 

So yeah, I think we will be better, and playing meaningful games in March is good for the development of our youngsters, but I don't think we are a playoff team til the youngsters (especially on Defence, and our third line centre/top 6fw) really improve and produce.  Im not sure if Newhook is that #3C or top 6 winger, but whatever one he is not, we will need a young player to mature into that role. 

[hab29RETIRED]

29 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

My concern with that, is that the Atlantic is so strong, and they have to play 4 games against all of these powerhouse and up and comer teams. 

That's why I thought last year there was no chance in hell - even if healthy to be in the playoffs. On paper we are better this year- but have two guys who have a tone of skill, who did. Lot play last year in Dach and Laine, and our D still have a lot of peach fuzz on their faces. I think this year there is a realistic chance of finishing between 16-20. Last year I had them in the 25-27 range.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Newhook - Dach - Laine

 

If played together would be an entire new line that is certainly much better than what Montreal had as a second line last season. 
 

I think that we fight for a wildcard 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Dach celebrating after scoring in practice this morning. 
 

We are going to see this pose many times this season!

 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Oh yeah, we are going to see this a whole bunch too

 

 

[BCHabnut]

The amount of one goal games lost last year was crazy. Hopefully the offense can turn some of those regulation losses last year, into wins and OTL points this year. But even with that improvement,  the high danger chances against were bad last year. I don't track stats, but I watched every game and it was obviously lopsided. Does our defense reduce those chances against?

[Prime Minister Koivu]

9 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

The amount of one goal games lost last year was crazy. Hopefully the offense can turn some of those regulation losses last year, into wins and OTL points this year. But even with that improvement,  the high danger chances against were bad last year. I don't track stats, but I watched every game and it was obviously lopsided. Does our defense reduce those chances against?

The greatest defence is when we control the puck in their Ozone. 🎉

 

Agree about the one goal games and OT games. Surely we win more of those with an improved offence. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

The amount of one goal games lost last year was crazy. Hopefully the offense can turn some of those regulation losses last year, into wins and OTL points this year. But even with that improvement,  the high danger chances against were bad last year. I don't track stats, but I watched every game and it was obviously lopsided. Does our defense reduce those chances against?

 

It's a great point. I think Laine + internal improvement from a critical mass of youngsters will make us a competitive club. And I have moderate faith in the G as well. But we've thus far seen no sign that MSL can instill defensive structure, and without that, it's hard to get over that playoff bar. So I say, we'll be a bubble team, but I won't be surprised at all if we end up on the outside looking in. 

 

As others have noted, the pressure will really start ramping up next season no matter what happens.

[tomh009]

14 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

But we've thus far seen no sign that MSL can instill defensive structure, and without that, it's hard to get over that playoff bar.

It's a good question, is it St-Louis's inability to create an effective D structure, or is it the inexperience of our D corps? This season should give us some indication of that with Guhle, Xhekaj and Barron all entering their third NHL seasons.

[dlbalr]

On 9/8/2024 at 11:41 AM, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Let’s not allow the Habs’ 21st century history of lacking elite offensive talent to skew our expectations in a needlessly pessimistic direction. Point-per-game production is a fully realistic expectation for this player. He produced at that level in 2021 and 2022 on a team that was no stronger than this one; and he has been a PPG guy at other points in his career as well.

 

So IF he plays 82 games, then 80 points is a fair expectation.

 

Whether he can actually play a full season without missing significant time is much more questionable. He hasn’t done that since 2019.

 

60 points in 60 games would be my guesstimate of his overall production this season. But we should be slotting him in as a PPG player.

 

While I don't have Laine's projection piece written yet (I'm waffling on how many games I'm projecting him to be injured for), I don't have him at that level.  I can think of several reasons why he won't be a point-per-game player and not just because of general pessimism.

 

- He's coming back from a shoulder issue and as we know, snipers coming back from shoulder problems tend to underachieve in their first year back.

- He's going from playing with a high-end playmaker in Gaudreau to probably Dach, who is a decent playmaker.  That doesn't help.

- He's going from being a top-liner in Columbus to probably a second liner in Montreal so less ice time compared to his point-per-game years.  And if I don't have one of Montreal's top liners quite averaging a point per game, I'm not going to predict a second liner gets there.

- I have him being on PP2 as three pure shooters on the top unit probably isn't the best way to go.  If that happens, again, less playing time compared to his top seasons.

 

I'm happy Laine is on the team but I'd be surprised if the Habs were getting the high-end version of him, at least for the upcoming season.

[dlbalr]

18 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

If Laine is healthy (physically and mentally), and Dach is healthy, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect both to score 80 points.

 

Dach has yet to hit 40 points in a single season while his best year was a 54-point pace (not counting two points in two games last year).  Going to 80 as a second liner would be stunning.  (Or even playing at a point-per-game level for most of the year.)

[dlbalr]

6 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I feel the same this year, if they are healthy they should make the playoff despite having a less than average defensive group

 

Which teams in the Atlantic do you have them ahead of?  They have to beat three, probably four to have a shot at getting in.  If all goes well, I think they could get ahead of one or two but four is asking for an awful lot to go perfectly.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

While I don't have Laine's projection piece written yet (I'm waffling on how many games I'm projecting him to be injured for), I don't have him at that level.  I can think of several reasons why he won't be a point-per-game player and not just because of general pessimism.

 

- He's coming back from a shoulder issue and as we know, snipers coming back from shoulder problems tend to underachieve in their first year back.

- He's going from playing with a high-end playmaker in Gaudreau to probably Dach, who is a decent playmaker.  That doesn't help.

- He's going from being a top-liner in Columbus to probably a second liner in Montreal so less ice time compared to his point-per-game years.  And if I don't have one of Montreal's top liners quite averaging a point per game, I'm not going to predict a second liner gets there.

- I have him being on PP2 as three pure shooters on the top unit probably isn't the best way to go.  If that happens, again, less playing time compared to his top seasons.

 

I'm happy Laine is on the team but I'd be surprised if the Habs were getting the high-end version of him, at least for the upcoming season.

 

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Dach has yet to hit 40 points in a single season while his best year was a 54-point pace (not counting two points in two games last year).  Going to 80 as a second liner would be stunning.  (Or even playing at a point-per-game level for most of the year.)

Outstanding points about Laine 👍

 

I don’t think it’s fair to judge Dach largely based on his past performances. Those numbers are from a 20, 21 year old. Dach spent ages 22, 23 mostly hurt. 
 

What can a full season of a 24 year old Dach do?

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

- He's coming back from a shoulder issue and as we know, snipers coming back from shoulder problems tend to underachieve in their first year back.

The unknown for me is that both Caufield and Laine are right-hand shots, but Caufield's surgery was on his right shoulder and Laine's was on his left ... does which shoulder is operated on impact the player's shot/recovery more or less?

[GHT120]

 

Numbers obviously are now out of date

 

[dlbalr]

11 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Outstanding points about Laine 👍

 

I don’t think it’s fair to judge Dach largely based on his past performances. Those numbers are from a 20, 21 year old. Dach spent ages 22, 23 mostly hurt. 
 

What can a full season of a 24 year old Dach do?

 

I have to use what info I have to project Dach.  Objectively (since I publish my projections), I can't just ignore the past and blindly hope that he'll have a breakout year.  I hope he does but I have to use the history of players barely scraping half a point a game rarely making a one-year jump to basically double that. 

[Commandant]

1 minute ago, dlbalr said:

 

I have to use what info I have to project Dach.  Objectively (since I publish my projections), I can't just ignore the past and blindly hope that he'll have a breakout year.  I hope he does but I have to use the history of players barely scraping half a point a game rarely making a one-year jump to basically double that. 

 

Thats true, its a tiny number... now take the number of players who did it coming off an injury that cost them basically a full season, and that number plummets to basically zero.

 

Dach may not come out of the gates firing on all cylinders after the long, long recovery/rehab.  It may take a bit to get up to speed too.

[alfredoh2009]

17 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Which teams in the Atlantic do you have them ahead of?  They have to beat three, probably four to have a shot at getting in.  If all goes well, I think they could get ahead of one or two but four is asking for an awful lot to go perfectly.

You are right, I have not looked at other teams. I have not been following the Habs for a long time and I do not know anymore how they stack up

 

I’ll take a look sometime before training camp starts 

[alfredoh2009]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:49 PM, BCHabnut said:

My concern with that, is that the Atlantic is so strong, and they have to play 4 games against all of these powerhouse and up and comer teams. 

Actually, that plays in their favour where they will not be exposed too much to the better teams in their division . Less points to lose

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Actually, that plays in their favour where they will not be exposed too much to the better teams in their division . Less points to lose

 

What?

[BCHabnut]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Actually, that plays in their favour where they will not be exposed too much to the better teams in their division . Less points to lose

Whatchoo talkin bout Willis? In a bad division you would expect them to to win games against the bad teams. Atlantic is a power house. Toronto boston Florida and Tampa are all powerhouse teams. Maybe Tampa slides. Maybe not. Ottawa and Detroit are both up and comers with loads of skill. Buffalo is Buffalo, but could put it together one day. 

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Actually, that plays in their favour where they will not be exposed too much to the better teams in their division . Less points to lose

Unless the NHL changes the schedule format, the Habs play the same number of games against their division, and the Metropolitan (and the Central and the Pacific) regardless of whether or not the teams in those divisions are good.

[dlbalr]

On 9/7/2024 at 6:43 PM, dlbalr said:

I think we may see a change in goal, I believe Quentin Miller is injured now and won't be able to participate in camp.  It'll be interesting to see if they ask Dobes to fill in then or if they look elsewhere.  Luke Cavallin could be another option.

 

They went outside the organization to fill the other goalie spot with Miller injured.  They've invited Matteo Drobac from OHL Brantford.  He's too old to return to junior but probably not good enough to be worth signing.

[DON]

Hutson bit

 

https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/hutson-settles-in-montreal-ahead-of-prospect-showdown

 

“I haven’t really played with Logan Mailloux or David Reinbacher, so I’m excited to see what those guys can do and hopefully play with them a bit, too,” explained the blue-liner.

 

 

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-alex-newhook-excited-about-the-arrival-of-patrik-laine

Newhook and defenceman Jayden Struble were at the Bell Centre Monday afternoon when members of the Montreal media got a sneak preview of Episode 1 of The Rebuild: Inside the Montreal Canadiens. The eight-episode series will stream on Crave, in both English and French, starting Sept. 18.

 

Struble has trained hard off the ice all summer and has been skating hard for 90 minutes a day since June. He has also been falling in love with Montreal.

“I just love everything about it,” the Rhode Island native said. “I love all the guys here. Love the food and I like my view in my apartment. Just everything. Hopefully I’m here for a while and just take advantage of it.”

 

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2024-montreal-canadiens-top-25-under-25-ranked-roster-juraj-slafkovsky-ivan-demidov-cole-caufield-kirby-dach-lane-hutson/

 

 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

New PP1 practicing, Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Laine, Matheson 

 

So what does PP2 look like?

 

Dach, Newhook, Gallagher, Armia, Guhle (Hutson if he makes the team)?