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Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything


Butterface

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10 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Craig’s list for 2025 Draft:
 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/craig-s-list-matthew-schaefer-ascends-to-no-1-for-2025-nhl-draft-1.2235722
 

Not sure how it will end up, but there has been some decent moving around…

 

Craig's list is always way different from consensus lists... which I like cause he takes his own stands on players. 

 

For as bad as he was as a scout, he was great as the head scout in Dallas, and a reason they were such a strong team in the late 90s/early 2000s was his excellent drafting. 

His draft lists are weird compared to others but when that study came out that I referenced earlier, he was highly rated, top 5 and ahead of actual NHL draft order. 

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40 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Craig's list is always way different from consensus lists... which I like cause he takes his own stands on players. 

 


Have you put yours out yet ? 

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https://awinninghabit.com/3-potential-call-ups-for-the-canadiens-in-wake-of-emil-heineman-injury
 

A poster from a fan site… said the call ups for Heineman could potentially be Tuch, F. Xhekaj and/or Roy.

 

I think it’s a little early to bring up Florian, but I’d love to see him. I think we will see him on the fourth line a few years from now (reasonable priced 4th liner then)… or maybe we will draft someone with better potential prior to that.

 

Tuch is also someone I’d like to see. He may be coming out of his ELC at a bad time and may never see the big club…. He could be a Pez at some point, I suppose.

 

Roy is the only logical choice for now I should think.

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10 hours ago, Butterface said:

https://awinninghabit.com/3-potential-call-ups-for-the-canadiens-in-wake-of-emil-heineman-injury
 

A poster from a fan site… said the call ups for Heineman could potentially be Tuch, F. Xhekaj and/or Roy.

 

I think it’s a little early to bring up Florian, but I’d love to see him. I think we will see him on the fourth line a few years from now (reasonable priced 4th liner then)… or maybe we will draft someone with better potential prior to that.

 

Tuch is also someone I’d like to see. He may be coming out of his ELC at a bad time and may never see the big club…. He could be a Pez at some point, I suppose.

 

Roy is the only logical choice for now I should think.

What about Harvey Pinard? How's he playing. He's a buzz saw around the net when he's on his game.

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8 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

What about Harvey Pinard? How's he playing. He's a buzz saw around the net when he's on his game.

 

I don't think he's ready.  He's still trying to find his game after the injury. 

i think its gonna be Joshua Roy or Alex Barre-Boulet, 

 

I know its not all about points, but they are a factor and dominating at the AHL level to be ready for the NHL is important. We can't talk about these guys as serious callup options at forward. 

 

RHP 8 points in 19 games
F.Xhekaj 10 points in 31 games

Luch Tuch 9 points in 26 games.

 

 

Roy meanwhile is leading the team with 27 in 31

Abb 25 in 27

 

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Wouldn’t ABB need to clear waivers on way back down after the call-up and we could lose him for Rocket playoff run ?

 

Thought the idea was to avoid that potential loss with the players mentioned in the post… hence the poster said Tuch and Xhekaj…. who are waiver-exempt but unlikely call-ups given our push to try to make the NHL playoffs.

 

Roy seems the best choice. My second choice would have been Beck.

 

Play Beck on wing and if we are up goals in the third, try him at centre for a looki-loo.

 

With Pez around we would need a couple more injuries to call up ABB on an emergency basis and avoid waiver worries.

 

If Habs slip out of playoff contention, I’d at least like the Rocket to get some playoff experience for those that can. ABB would be a big part of that run.

 

ABB seems destined to be a very good AHLer, but not quite an NHLer… regardless, better safe than sorry. Bergevin and Dubas are lurking 👀🤣🤣. He could be cheap dep(th) insurance for an NHL team.


https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/latest-news/who-should-be-called-up-to-help

 

The above article suggests Tuch or Davidson.

 

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Here we go… someone starting to compare Lane Hutson potential contracts.

 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/01/15/hutsons-development-could-impact-canadiens-summer-plans/

 

Trying to keep him close to the Suzuki contract number will be difficult.

 

I am going to keep the number at 7.9M for 8 years for now. I suspect we will know the real answer prior to opening night 2025.

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47 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Wouldn’t ABB need to clear waivers on way back down after the call-up and we could lose him for Rocket playoff run ?

 

Thought the idea was to avoid that potential loss with the players mentioned in the post… hence the poster said Tuch and Xhekaj…. who are waiver-exempt but unlikely call-ups given our push to try to make the NHL playoffs.

 

Roy seems the best choice. My second choice would have been Beck.

 

Play Beck on wing and if we are up goals in the third, try him at centre for a looki-loo.

 

With Pez around we would need a couple more injuries to call up ABB on an emergency basis and avoid waiver worries.

 

If Habs slip out of playoff contention, I’d at least like the Rocket to get some playoff experience for those that can. ABB would be a big part of that run.

 

ABB seems destined to be a very good AHLer, but not quite an NHLer… regardless, better safe than sorry. Bergevin and Dubas are lurking 👀🤣🤣. He could be cheap dep(th) insurance for an NHL team.


https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/latest-news/who-should-be-called-up-to-help

 

The above article suggests Tuch or Davidson.

 

 

On ABB

 

He'd Only need waivers if he is on the roster for 30 days or plays 10 games. 

 

You could always put him back down and call up someone else before he hits those numbers. 
 

Tuch i don't think is NHL ready, and the fact he's been a healthy scratch recently in the AHL shows his game isn't at that level yet. He's got stuff to learn. 

 

I don't think Davidson's skating is good enough, he needs to work on that to be an NHLer IMO. 

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31 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

On ABB

 

He'd Only need waivers if he is on the roster for 30 days or plays 10 games. 


One last question to clarify for me… the 30 day 10 game thing is if you call him up on an Emergency basis ?

 

Emergency being if you can’t dress 12 forwards ?

 

We can dress 12 using Pez.

 

Or is “Emergency” a loose term and we can get away with it ?

 

MSL thinks anytime we have to play Pez that is the definition of “Emergency”….

 

That instantaneous penalty did no favours to ingratiate Pez into MSL’s good books. 

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16 hours ago, Butterface said:

Yeah, there was a report saying a team was considering taking him off our hands over the next two seasons. I thought moving him out in the last year of his contract could be done, surprised someone had interest to take him for both seasons. No idea if that is with retention… I assume so. 

At 50% retained he would be attractively priced (from an AAV point of view). Hopefully they would be able to get away with a bit less than that.

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28 minutes ago, Butterface said:


One last question to clarify for me… the 30 day 10 game thing is if you call him up on an Emergency basis ?

 

Emergency being if you can’t dress 12 forwards ?

 

We can dress 12 using Pez.

 

Or is “Emergency” a loose term and we can get away with it ?

 

MSL thinks anytime we have to play Pez that is the definition of “Emergency”….

 

That instantaneous penalty did no favours to ingratiate Pez into MSL’s good books. 

 

No, it is not for emergencies.  Any player who has cleared waivers already, doesn't need waivers a second time unless they play 10 games or are on the NHL roster for 30 days.  This is cumulative, so anytime after he was on waivers, he would add to this total.

 

Like if the Habs called him up played him 5 games now, and then sent him back, and then in March he got another 5 games, he'd need waivers after the second callup. 

 

Also an emergency is defined as less than 12 healthy forwards, 6 healthy defencemen or 2 healthy goalies.  But it is not necessary for the waiver rule as defined above.. 

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33 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Any player who has cleared waivers already, doesn't need waivers a second time unless they play 10 games or are on the NHL roster for 30 days.


Yeah… that’s the part I needed to read about. I was not aware of that caveat. 
 

So his October 14th, 2024 waiver clearance allows for this… right ?

He's had 2 games this year with Habs ?  So allowed 8 more before having to go through again ? (Or 30 days) 

 

or a full 10 since he’s played none since he cleared waivers?

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Logan Hensler RHD draft pick…
 

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/players/logan-hensler-could-be-a-strong-selection-for-montreal

 

Button has him at 26… I’ve seen him top 10 on other lists…33rd on Ferrari’s mid December list….Elite prospects he was 8th….mid-Nov on Sportsnet’s he was 13th.

 

All over the map.
 

I’m interested to see where the consensus best RHD and LH Centres fall on the draft lists… see if we need to trade up to get them or we have options in the areas we expect to draft.

 

BPA, but if there are a group of prospects at an equal talent level, these are two choices we should lean towards.

 

Whats nice is that Dach seems to have started to come around which puts less pressure on finding a top 6 centre.

 

Until we know for sure about Reinbacher and Mailloux, insurance at RHD would be nice.


Moving up the standings gives us a higher likelihood of choosing the RHD as our first pick.

 

IMO cause I’m sure I will receive flack for this.

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6 hours ago, Butterface said:

Yeah… that’s the part I needed to read about. I was not aware of that caveat. 
 

So his October 14th, 2024 waiver clearance allows for this… right ?

He's had 2 games this year with Habs ?  So allowed 8 more before having to go through again ? (Or 30 days) 

 

or a full 10 since he’s played none since he cleared waivers?

 

Full 10 games/30 days since Barre-Boulet hasn't been on the NHL roster since clearing.

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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Full 10 games/30 days since Barre-Boulet hasn't been on the NHL roster since clearing.


Cool. Thanks.


We are 43% Chance of making the playoffs right now.

 

 

IMG_4193.jpeg

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10 hours ago, Butterface said:

We are 43% Chance of making the playoffs right now.

All depends on whose model you check. Dom Luszczyszyn has the Habs at 10%, Moneypuck says 25.5%.

 

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

All depends on whose model you check. Dom Luszczyszyn has the Habs at 10%, Moneypuck says 25.5%.

 


I’ll guess 50/50 depending on team health and decisions at the trade deadline

 

the team is playing very well right now

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

All depends on whose model you check. Dom Luszczyszyn has the Habs at 10%, Moneypuck says 25.5%.

 

 

Based solely on the number of spots available (2 it looks like) and the huge logjam of teams competing for those spots, I'm going to say 43% is way too high.... I'd think Moneypuck is most accurate. 

Dom's model factors in the full season of advanced stats, and as I said yesterday, the Habs are getting closer but haven't broken the 50% number in terms of xG and other similar stats.  The early season play is still a drag on the numbers despite things being better lately. So I think Dom underestimates them. 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

Dom's model factors in the full season of advanced stats, and as I said yesterday, the Habs are getting closer but haven't broken the 50% number in terms of xG and other similar stats.  The early season play is still a drag on the numbers despite things being better lately. So I think Dom underestimates them. 

Yeah, Dom's more lags quite a bit, I'm pretty sure last season's data also still has an impact on his model.

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Further to the Heineman replacement:

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-losing-heineman-cannot-be-overstated-in-significance/

 

This reporter (?) says play Beck over ABB, Roy, RHP, Condotta and Pez… says put Beck on Dvoraks wing and slide Anderson to Evans line.

 

We really just need Pez to sit and have any of Roy, Beck and ABB play. We need to have 4 solid lines and make our depth our weapon.

 

If we are going to make the playoffs, let’s make the playoffs. No sense in falling 8 picks in the draft and not make them.

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1 minute ago, Butterface said:

Further to the Heineman replacement:

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-losing-heineman-cannot-be-overstated-in-significance/

 

This reporter (?) says play Beck over ABB, Roy, RHP, Condotta and Pez… says put Beck on Dvoraks wing and slide Anderson to Evans line.

 

We really just need Pez to sit and have any of Roy, Beck and ABB play. We need to have 4 solid lines and make our depth our weapon.

 

If we are going to make the playoffs, let’s make the playoffs. No sense in falling 8 picks in the draft and not make them.

 

Not a reporter, once again a fan site. 

 

I strongly disagree with messing with two lines on this.  I also strongly disagree with calling up Beck to play wing instead of leaving him in Laval to develop at centre. 

 

I'd leave the Anderson - Dvorak - Gallagher line alone and slide in Roy or ABB into the Evans line.  

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