Butterface Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dlbalr said: Frank Seravalli linked those three teams to them so at least it's not a random thing like someone writing about how Montreal should try to sign him (which I haven't seen yet but wouldn't be shocked if it comes up). Won’t come up if we sign Jake. If we don’t sign Jake, I’m sure there will be an article. Might even be one if the suspense of signing Jake goes on too much longer. “Renaud Lavoie believes that something around $3 million per year would be expected, for at least three years.“ From a recent story by Mathis Therrien on msn.com about a Jake signing. If we can get him for 3M … I am absolutely willing to go for 5 years. But I don’t think he will be anything less than 3.5M.. I’m guessing 3.75-4.25M. I just don’t want trade restrictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Butterface said: Won’t come up if we sign Jake. If we don’t sign Jake, I’m sure there will be an article. Might even be one if the suspense of signing Jake goes on too much longer. “Renaud Lavoie believes that something around $3 million per year would be expected, for at least three years.“ From a recent story by Mathis Therrien on msn.com about a Jake signing. If we can get him for 3M … I am absolutely willing to go for 5 years. But I don’t think he will be anything less than 3.5M.. I’m guessing 3.75-4.25M. I just don’t want trade restrictions. If Evans is hoping for a 20 million contract I wonder if an 8 year contract would be worth considering (to greatly lower the cap hit)? Evans would have to accept that when he gets slow his role will eventually become like Pezzetta. 8 years x 2.25 per maybe? Spitballing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: If Evans is hoping for a 20 million contract I wonder if an 8 year contract would be worth considering (to greatly lower the cap hit)? Evans would have to accept that when he gets slow his role will eventually become like Pezzetta. 8 years x 2.25 per maybe? Spitballing Think that will be too low. I can see the contract being front loaded so Evans can bank more $$ in his investment account earlier equating to a bit more money in his pocket over the life of the contract…. and though that won’t change the AAV, it will be more palatable for the acquiring team to pay him less than his AAV if money is an issue. I could see Montreal do a 5 year and then end up trading Kapanen if they have the cap space to keep Evans and feel his age is not a factor. That trade won’t happen for two to three years though. Apparently Evans wants to stay and Hughes wants to keep him [Lavoie]. We’ll see just how much of that is true if a contract appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Butterface said: Apparently Evans wants to stay and Hughes wants to keep him [Lavoie]. We’ll see just how much of that is true if a contract appears. Evans said in an interview that he wants to stay but what else would you expect him to say? And even if he would like to stay, we don't know what he would accept in order to stay. For now, it's all just words ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, tomh009 said: Evans said in an interview that he wants to stay but what else would you expect him to say? Show me the money… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 17 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: Spitballing Danault signed for $5.5/yr in 2021. Evans aint Danault but come on. It is basically his shot at 1 nice biggish long contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, DON said: Danault signed for $5.5/yr in 2021. Evans aint Danault but come on. It is basically his shot at 1 nice biggish long contract. I'm genuinely curious what Hughes is thinking. Is he even entertaining a longish term contract? We will find out soon enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: I'm genuinely curious what Hughes is thinking. Is he even entertaining a longish term contract? We will find out soon enough If soon is defined as in up to 5 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, GHT120 said: If soon is defined as in up to 5 months. My thoughts are if Evans is still here after the trade deadline then the chances of a contract are pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, GHT120 said: If soon is defined as in up to 5 months. Yeah, but Hughes will be skewered if he waits past TDL and Evans finds greener pastures elsewhere. This will come to a head by TDL. Hughes has all the power until TDL, then it is out of his hands and he looks foolish to lose Evans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 41 minutes ago, Butterface said: Yeah, but Hughes will be skewered if he waits past TDL and Evans finds greener pastures elsewhere. This will come to a head by TDL. Hughes has all the power until TDL, then it is out of his hands and he looks foolish to lose Evans. Unless they are close enough that he retains him as a "pending UFA rental". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, GHT120 said: Unless they are close enough that he retains him as a "pending UFA rental". I just can’t see that in a rebuild. They are still in a rebuild. Quite a few of the players we have now are not on the “Cup Attempt” team in a few years. Matheson, Anderson, Dvorak, Armia, Newhook, Pez, Savard, Struble, likely Gally… they can’t afford to lose assets for free right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Spreadsheet still looks like this: Double click on it to view better. Dobes new contract looks low if he continues his play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 59 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: My thoughts are if Evans is still here after the trade deadline then the chances of a contract are pretty good Obviously will depend how well the Habs do over the next 8 weeks, same boat as Armia & Savard. The 3 might all get 2nd rounder value in trade, i assume. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Well, I would imagine not many had us sitting in the position we are now a month ago. If this keeps up much longer I’m going to have to change expected draft order and expected salary of our first draft pick in 2025. https://awinninghabit.com/joshua-roy-flying-under-the-radar “It's going to get to the point where there are too many chefs in one kitchen, and Hughes is going to have to make some hard decisions. For example, next season I expect that Owen Beck, Oliver Kapanen and Roy will be in the mix. That's not even considering that Patrik Laine could be in the conversation, and Ivan Demidov will be competing for a spot.“ “Veteran presence remains an important part of the Habs' identity, giving some mentor roles to the older players. I do think, however, that at some point, a decision has to be made - do the veterans continue taking away a spot from the young guys? With Joel Armia, Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher in the mix, that is three spots taken up, and there are more than three guys who will want a spot with the Canadiens.” https://athlonsports.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/insider-canadiens-strategy-ahead-nhl-trade-deadline “According to Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period, the Canadiens are in no rush to make moves and will take a measured approach before deciding whether to sell, buy, or stand pat.” “For general manager Kent Hughes, balancing the short- and long-term prospects of the franchise will be key, but the current position the team is at offers him the chance to play a wait-and-see game.” “Do you really want to take anybody off the team right now?” Bernstein wondered. “I don’t think Kent Hughes is in a sell mindset. The team’s right there, and you look around—anything can happen.” ”You can afford to be patient because of the result of the team. If the bottom falls out on the season or teams come with offers too good to refuse, that’s when Hughes makes a move.” Excerpts from the above two articles show that Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton will have to make lots of tough decisions in the next 10 months. They have to choose between the present and the future in the days leading up to the TDL. They have to decide who stays and who goes from the UFA group and weigh whether losing out on assets to make the playoffs now is worth gambling the future on. For me, if the team was closer to being the actual team that will compete for the cup, I would put all trades on hold. But we have so many players that will be replaced over the next three or four years and if we risk having them walk out as UFAs, that is suicide. It’s not like we can offer a competitive contract in the summer to Savard that might want a last hurrah 3 year deal. We have players knocking on the door with future upside expected to be better than Armia, Dvorak and Evans. So let’s get the trade assets for them. Yes, it would suck to lose all three important pieces to the penalty kill in Armia, Evans and Dvorak. We do have the ability to offer a contract to one. Evans is the obvious choice. So I think we have to bite the bullet and trade Armia, Savard and Dvorak (if possible) … We keep Matheson until at least the summer and try to see if Evans will sign a reasonable contract - if not, he’s a TDL deal. I absolutely don’t think Hughes can afford to be cute. As GM he has to manage the assets properly. The team has showed itself to be worthy of a chance to compete in the playoffs, but not at the expense of damaging the future product. We probably have to sign 2 forwards for next year. Evans (if possible) and another extra forward who sits like Pez. We don’t want to have a prospect sit like Pez. If we lose Evans, we have replacement(s)… but ideally we still want a 13th forward. I think the Gally and Anderson contracts will be tough to move. Anderson’s slightly less so. I think we need to move out one of the two. Retain $$ and maybe add a sweetener. We need a spot on roster to open for the 2026-2027 season. That is something to figure out after the 2025-26 season though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Here is what our choices look like now with the jump in the standings… https://www.toutsurlehockey.com/tslh-espoirs/potentials-2025-nhl-draft-prospects-for-the-montreal-canadiens/ Not as juicy as previous potential picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, Butterface said: We probably have to sign 2 forwards for next year. Evans (if possible) and another extra forward who sits like Pez. We don’t want to have a prospect sit like Pez. If we lose Evans, we have replacement(s)… but ideally we still want a 13th forward. For the 13th forward, you can always call up one of the Laval veterans: ABB, Condotta, Dauphin ... maybe even RHP. They'll be making close to $1M a season sitting in the press box, so most players with minimal NHL potential would grab the opportunity, even if the games are few and far between. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalhabs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 If we are fighting for a playoff spot close to the deadline it would be idiotic to go into sell mode. Keep them and enjoy the ride. We can survive without those few draftpicks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 About 8 weeks and 20some more games for GMs to decide to maybe make a hockey trade and be a seller or not at deadline. Just hope team can stay relatively healthy and 2nd half is bit better showing for Dach, Newhook & Slafkovski. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, Dalhabs said: If we are fighting for a playoff spot close to the deadline it would be idiotic to go into sell mode. Keep them and enjoy the ride. We can survive without those few draftpicks. Survive, yes. But the plan is for the team to be a long-term contender, not to make a single playoff run. So, I don't expect them to let (all of) the UFAs walk away for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Survive, yes. But the plan is for the team to be a long-term contender, not to make a single playoff run. So, I don't expect them to let (all of) the UFAs walk away for nothing. Keeping the UFAs for a chance at the playoffs isn't "nothing" There is value in young players, especially those who weren't part of the 2021 run, (Hutson, Slafkovsky, Newhook, Dach, Guhle, Montembault, Dobes, Xhekaj, Heineman, etc) playing meaningful, high pressure games late in the season and is part of the development process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 28 minutes ago, Commandant said: Keeping the UFAs for a chance at the playoffs isn't "nothing" There is value in young players, especially those who weren't part of the 2021 run, (Hutson, Slafkovsky, Newhook, Dach, Guhle, Montembault, Dobes, Xhekaj, Heineman, etc) playing meaningful, high pressure games late in the season and is part of the development process. Exactly. The team already has lots of picks in the first 2 rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 While it isn’t nothing, I think the young players will get plenty of experience in the playoffs in the following two years before we are expected to really compete for a cup. To have assets to trade and make the team better for future cup runs and not use them is short-sighted. Hughes will forever be judged on having an asset and not getting value for it, like Gainey for Souray. I’m not saying this is always the prudent move to trade an expiring contract, but unless your team is fully formed and completely out of a rebuild to do anything less is nonsensical. If Hughes loses Evans to free agency without securing an asset for him, it would be Armageddon in Montreal. If he fails to secure an asset for Savard and Savard leaves for a longer term contract, it would be cataclysmic. If he fails to get something for Armia it would be disappointing. My feeling would be wait until last minute. Make the trades. Hope your team squeaks in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think Armaggedon and Cataclysmic are just a little bit hyperbolic for this. I also think the reality is that the team became top in the conference just 1 year later despite not trading Souray, and was in the conference final just 3 years later despite not making that move. And I'd argue Souray had even more value at that time (and the Habs had fewer high picks in the pipeline at the time, than now). So things like Armageddon and Cataclysmic seem to be a big leap. Continually trading veterans and saying... owe they will get plenty of playoff experience in the next two years when we make that jump hasn't worked in Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, and numerous other failed rebuilds as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 36 minutes ago, BCHabnut said: Exactly. The team already has lots of picks in the first 2 rounds. You can weaponize these picks and move lower in the draft. We don’t need quantity, we need quality. Do not take for granted that our talent pool is good enough. Hughes has a real chance here to add depth to the talent pool that will fuel a longer window. We may not achieve the optimal draft position to secure high-end talent this year due to our recent surge up the standings, but we can capitalize on the value of our expiring contracts and use the picks to move up the draft to offset that shortcoming. You can’t have everything, but you have to monetize your expiring assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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