2026 Round 1: Habs vs Lightning

[tomh009]

 

Let the playoffs begin!

[Prime Minister Koivu]

[DON]

Sunday it gets going eh.

 

Saturday, April 18 – Game 1, with Networks

3 p.m. ET, Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes; ESPN, SN, TVAS

5:30 p.m. ET, Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars; ESPN, SN, TVAS

8 p.m. ET, Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins; ESPN, SN, TVAS

Sunday, April 19 – Game 1

Time/TV TBD, +Western Conference Wild Card #2 at Colorado Avalanche

Time/TV TBD, Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

Time/TV TBD, Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres

Time/TV TBD, Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

Monday, April 20 – Game 1

Time/TV TBD, +Pacific Division #3 at +Pacific Division #2

[JoeLassister]

[tomh009]

No Saturday night games! We will miss out seeing Mr Saturday Night in action.

[DON]

38 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

No Saturday night games! We will miss out seeing Mr Saturday Night in action.

Next series.

[GHT120]

 

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I'm a bit haunted by Pierre LeBrun saying that the Canadiens' best chance for winning this series is if the second line makes an impact. 

 

That feels right to me. We know Line 1 is going to do damage, but do we have the secondary push required to win a hard-fought series in which TB's entire plan will be (a) to contain that line and (b) hit Hutson? I'm not too worried about Hutson, because he is so stupendous, but Line 1 is unlikely to dominate from pole to pole against a team that savvy and battle-hardened.

 

But it's hard to have too much confidence in Mystery Man - Kapanen - Demidov. Demidov, yes. But the others?

 

I have a good feeling about Dobes, though. He just feels like a guy who is going to come up aces.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

I like the lines but the defence still worries me

 

Carrier, Hutson will get pushed around and I don’t even want to think about how they will fare in the inevitable scrums after each play. 

 

[Commandant]

Evans and Danault on the same line is interesting.  I wonder what matchup MSL is looking for out of the line.  Is that who is gonna go against Kucherov? 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I'm a bit haunted by Pierre LeBrun saying that the Canadiens' best chance for winning this series is if the second line makes an impact. 

 

That feels right to me. We know Line 1 is going to do damage, but do we have the secondary push required to win a hard-fought series in which TB's entire plan will be (a) to contain that line and (b) hit Hutson? I'm not too worried about Hutson, because he is so stupendous, but Line 1 is unlikely to dominate from pole to pole against a team that savvy and battle-hardened.

 

But it's hard to have too much confidence in Mystery Man - Kapanen - Demidov. Demidov, yes. But the others?

 

I have a good feeling about Dobes, though. He just feels like a guy who is going to come up aces.

IMO Texier is a very intelligent player and I hope that he finds open ice to receive all the high danger passes coming his way. 

 

Texier is slow so I’m hoping that he can keep up 

In theory they should be a good line but we will see soon enough

 

[GHT120]

 

Congratulations Nick and Caitlin

[Prime Minister Koivu]

4 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Evans and Danault on the same line is interesting.  I wonder what matchup MSL is looking for out of the line.  Is that who is gonna go against Kucherov? 

Strong faceoff, defensive shutdown line 

 

It will be interesting if Marty intends a pure matchup against Kucherov 

[GHT120]

12 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Strong faceoff, defensive shutdown line 

 

It will be interesting if Marty intends a pure matchup against Kucherov 

Perhaps more an option to share the burden, especially when TBL have the last change and it is more difficult to match up 13-14-20 against the Kucherov line

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Anderson is going to be a Kucherov seeking missile 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Perhaps more an option to share the burden, especially when TBL have the last change and it is more difficult to match up 13-14-20 against the Kucherov line

For sure

 

I wonder if Marty has an ideal Dpairing against Kucherov?

[dlbalr]

1 minute ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Anderson is going to be a Kucherov seeking missile 

 

A little surprised to see James on there, he's only six weeks into an 8-10-week recovery.  He wasn't supposed to be a realistic option until maybe the end of the round.

[Commandant]

5 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

For sure

 

I wonder if Marty has an ideal Dpairing against Kucherov?

 

For sure its Matheson Guhle.

[Commandant]

9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Perhaps more an option to share the burden, especially when TBL have the last change and it is more difficult to match up 13-14-20 against the Kucherov line

 

One of the two lines will need to be on the ice against Cirelli-Guentzel too. 

[GHT120]

15 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

A little surprised to see James on there, he's only six weeks into an 8-10-week recovery.  He wasn't supposed to be a realistic option until maybe the end of the round.

And that is post surgery ... those estimates (as well as broken bones) are usually pretty good, whereas soft tissue injuries can be less predictable and often more related to pain tolerance.

[GHT120]

 

 

[tomh009]

Evolving Hockey's ratings for the two teams, as posted by the Athletic (the charts are visible without a login). Overall they have Tampa with a 79% probability of winning (and a 19% probability of a Tampa sweep).

 

 

All of our forwards rated below Tampa's top three. Hmm. Only Hutson is getting a full does of love from Evolving Hockey.

 

And I don't really see that Matheson should be in the negative range. However ...

 

 

Hedman and Dobson both on the IR so the inuries are pretty much a wash so far. And is Vasilevskiy really going to be twice as good as Dobes? At least he has not been for the past 20 games.

 

Let's see what happens when the rubber hits the ice on Sunday afternoon.

[hab29RETIRED]

14 hours ago, JoeLassister said:

Damn. I have to fly to Ohio for two weeks next Sunday for a work trip. Will have to figure out how to watch the games while I’m down there. My Sportsnet+ will be geo-fenced

[hab29RETIRED]

13 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I'm a bit haunted by Pierre LeBrun saying that the Canadiens' best chance for winning this series is if the second line makes an impact. 

 

That feels right to me. We know Line 1 is going to do damage, but do we have the secondary push required to win a hard-fought series in which TB's entire plan will be (a) to contain that line and (b) hit Hutson? I'm not too worried about Hutson, because he is so stupendous, but Line 1 is unlikely to dominate from pole to pole against a team that savvy and battle-hardened.

 

But it's hard to have too much confidence in Mystery Man - Kapanen - Demidov. Demidov, yes. But the others?

 

I have a good feeling about Dobes, though. He just feels like a guy who is going to come up aces.

I’ve been saying the same thing about the importance of the second line. Texier had a brief hot streak, but outside his shootout goal (which is an irrelevant skill in the playoffs), he had otherwise sucked for the past couple of weeks. Hell, I’d even be tempted to sit him in favour of cardio man. I really think we need to try Dach or Bolduc on the Demidov line. They need someone to bring some physicality to that line, and while Bolduc has sucked (also had a short hot scoring streak), at least he plays physical. Texier has done zip all. Dach would bring physicality, board presence and skill to that 2nd line.

[hab29RETIRED]

11 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I like the lines but the defence still worries me

 

Carrier, Hutson will get pushed around and I don’t even want to think about how they will fare in the inevitable scrums after each play. 

 

I’d prefer to play Reinbacher over Carrière. Keep Hutson with Struble to start.