Mark Napier Posted October 31, 2005 Share Posted October 31, 2005 Looking at this season so far, I have to say that the Habs are very lucky to be in the position they are in. Instead of being 7-3-1 they could easily be 3-7-1 if not for a lot of luck, some bounces and the well timed heroic efforts of a couple of players. Statistically the Habs are in 8th place overall in the league BUT their goals for (33) is 22nd and their goals against (32) is 20th in the league. They are a measly +1. Doesn't take a genius to see that these numbers don't add up and they have been really lucky to have the record they possess. And then there's Theo. 23rd in the league with a 3.20 GAA and even more telling, a shocking .877 save % for 32nd in the league. Not even the most ardent Theo supporter can defend those numbers. You can't say that the new rules are to blame for these numbers because plenty of other goalies have GAAs below 2.00 and save % above .900. Theo is struggling big time. I'm afraid that if/when this luck runs out we may be looking at a team that is marginal at best and will struggle to make the playoffs. Theo has to play better, no doubt about it. This team will go no where with the below average play he has shown so far. Even if he manages to get to mediocre, this team will be hard pressed to get very far. He has to be brilliant for this team to be a serious contender. Collectively this team has to find a way to score more goals. They can control play with their speed but finishing is becoming a real problem. 22nd in the league for goals scored won't cut it for a true contender. Getting some offence from our D would certainly help because it is nonexistent at this time. This has to improve. I feel a lot of habs fans have been looking at this team with rose coloured glasses but looking at the stats will give anyone a reason to feel anxious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habsfan88 Posted October 31, 2005 Share Posted October 31, 2005 Theo HAS to get his act together. He played well in some games but a goalie of his calibur cannot be putting up numbers like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
option+ Posted October 31, 2005 Share Posted October 31, 2005 I agree that Théo needs to play better, and that we need to start cashing in a few more chances in front of the net, but I don't think that we're lucky to be in this position. Of our 7 wins, in how many of them were we outplayed? The opener in Boston, maybe. And we deserved to win that game at home vs. Toronto, too. Maybe we've only been outscoring opponents by one goal... but I think this is down to poor finishing and good opposing goalie play rather than luck. If someone came up to me before the year started and asked me what the Habs' record would be 11 games in... 11 games in which Theo played like garbage... I would have guessed 2-9, 3-8 maybe. The fact that we've won so many games, outplaying the opposition in most of them, without having our goalie steal any games for us indicates to me that we're a pretty good team. Sure there is plenty of room for improvement, but I don't think that this team will be struggling to make the playoffs if we continue to play like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortcat1 Posted October 31, 2005 Share Posted October 31, 2005 Good observations and well expressed concerns. I certainly do hope that these things will come together at some time. Some aspects of it seem to be doing that (Ribeiro & Ryder) but, as you said, the defense is needing to contribute more offensively. It seems to be an abberation to see them not being part of the goal scoring. This hasn't been the case in the past. The thing about that, so far as I understand, is that this contributes to the fact that our total offence is not what it could be. By that, I mean that if the only scoring contributors are the forwards, then the opposition defenders will find it easier to defend against Montreal's offense because they only have to focus on the still forwards. If the defence scores also, then the opposition defenders have to spread themselves out more than they would like to and that opens up more possibilities from many different places in their zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 I don't know how you can say the Habs aren't very lucky to have the record they do. They managed to squeek out 4 more wins than they have losses on 1 goal. That's a nice trick. I can't see this trend continue to work for them. Take a look at the standings. Teams at the top have a higher +/- than the ones at the bottom. Montreal sticks out like a sore thumb at +1 in the position they are in. Simple mathematcs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 My response was for option+ by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTH Posted October 31, 2005 Share Posted October 31, 2005 They're winning by 1 goal but they deserved to win by more. They outshot a lot of teams by a lot in a lot of their 1 goal wins. That's a lot of lots. Even in their 5-2 loss to the Rangers they managed 40 shots and went +11 for SOG. It's more the other teams are lucky that we keep letting them get close. It's just us not being able to capitalize. Take Bulis: he creates chances, he gets shots but he just can't score. Philly stole a point from us and I belive we even outshot Ottawa in one or both of the games against them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted October 31, 2005 Author Share Posted October 31, 2005 Originally posted by Bulis_the_HabbieThey're winning by 1 goal but they deserved to win by more. They outshot a lot of teams by a lot in a lot of their 1 goal wins. That's a lot of lots. Even in their 5-2 loss to the Rangers they managed 40 shots and went +11 for SOG. It's more the other teams are lucky that we keep letting them get close. It's just us not being able to capitalize. Take Bulis: he creates chances, he gets shots but he just can't score. Philly stole a point from us and I belive we even outshot Ottawa in one or both of the games against them. Yes but deserving to win and actually winning are 2 different things. You could put a team out there that could control play all night but if they don't have the ability to score then it means nothing. A loss is a loss regarless of how many shots a team gets. This team can't seem to finish, score goals. By your comments I see that you feel that there is no need for concern. I on the other hand see that this team is a couple of bad efforts from falling out of the top of the standings. After all, if the team is playing as well as it is but can still only manage to be 22nd in the league in scoring and have a +1, then what will happen if they start to play badly? And if this bad play turns into a big slump, with the lack of finishing power and bad goal tending this team is going no where. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
option+ Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Originally posted by Mark NapierI don't know how you can say the Habs aren't very lucky to have the record they do. They managed to squeek out 4 more wins than they have losses on 1 goal. That's a nice trick. I can't see this trend continue to work for them. Take a look at the standings. Teams at the top have a higher +/- than the ones at the bottom. Montreal sticks out like a sore thumb at +1 in the position they are in. Simple mathematcs. I understand the stats. But I'd be more concerned if we were firing on all cylinders and still only winning games by one goal. But we're NOT firing on all cylinders. Our No. 1 goalie needs to smarten up. Our power play needs to improve. Some of our defenceman need to play smarter. We need to score more goals. I would be concerned if these problems were insurmountable. They are not. I am confident that Theo will snap out of it. I am confident that Souray will concentrate on sound D play instead of trying to make the highlight reels. I'm confident that once we settle on a point man (i.e. Markov) that the PP will improve. I'm confident that we'll bear down in front of goal and start scoring more goals. This is NOT the best we can play. I think we can play much, much better. That +1 seems to me to be an aberration, it's not indicative of how this good this team is, or more importantly how good this team will be once we get those issues straightened out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 What concerns me is that the effort seems to be there but the results, in terms of goal scoring, are not happening. Will theo start playing better? I hope so, time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTH Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Originally posted by Mark Napier Originally posted by Bulis_the_HabbieThey're winning by 1 goal but they deserved to win by more. They outshot a lot of teams by a lot in a lot of their 1 goal wins. That's a lot of lots. Even in their 5-2 loss to the Rangers they managed 40 shots and went +11 for SOG. It's more the other teams are lucky that we keep letting them get close. It's just us not being able to capitalize. Take Bulis: he creates chances, he gets shots but he just can't score. Philly stole a point from us and I belive we even outshot Ottawa in one or both of the games against them. Yes but deserving to win and actually winning are 2 different things. You could put a team out there that could control play all night but if they don't have the ability to score then it means nothing. A loss is a loss regarless of how many shots a team gets. This team can't seem to finish, score goals. By your comments I see that you feel that there is no need for concern. I on the other hand see that this team is a couple of bad efforts from falling out of the top of the standings. After all, if the team is playing as well as it is but can still only manage to be 22nd in the league in scoring and have a +1, then what will happen if they start to play badly? And if this bad play turns into a big slump, with the lack of finishing power and bad goal tending this team is going no where. Deserving a win and gettiong one are two different things but if we deserve a win and get a win then we are not "lucky". If we don't deserve and win we are lucky which is what you are saying. So I'm saying that we earned those wins and they weren't luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 Dont agree. At least 3 of those games we were lucky to win with late goals. I can see you still feel no need for concern despite the statistics I quoted but I guarentee you thisl; if by season's end Theo's still has a 3.20 GAA and save% of .877 and the team is still 22nd in the league in scoring, we will not make the playoffs. You can quote me on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
option+ Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Obviously. I don't think anybody disputes that. But the odds of Theo finishing with a .877% average is nil. He WILL improve. Hopefully we'll start scoring more, we definitely have the personnel in place (I think, anyway). If Theo is still stinking it up five games from now, and if the scoring doesn't pick up within 5-10 games, THEN I'll be concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTH Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Of course I agree with that but I seriously doubt Theo ends with those numbers. Anyway, he's playing well tonight and paid amazing against Ottawa. We arguably stole the game from Boston in the opener. We were outlpyed in the 4-3 OT win over NYR (but we outshot them) an one could argue that TO deserved a win against us but in all those games Theo didn't show up and he played badly in all of our wins too. He only has one good game and we lost in OT. He'll find some consistency though. We can't say Theo will have a .877 SV% just because he is after 11 games. Does that mean Tucker will have a 40-goal year because he's on that pace right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 I'm just going with the stats as they are right now. That was the point of my post, saying the way things are going can't continue if the Habs are going to successful this season. A lot of people are so busy praising the Habs that they are not taking a look at the real story. Will Theo and the rest of the team improve on their weak points? I hope so but it is absolutely necessary because they can't expect to keep winning the way things are now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
option+ Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Tucker is also on pace to finish -82. I'd LOOOOVE to see that happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTH Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Only Theo has been playing badly. I don't see a problem with the rest of the Habs. SOG is a good way of telling if you outplayed the opposition and we have that for us. Theo is playing his second great game tonight by the way. He might get to .900 and a 3.00 GAA. I'm not sure how the stats are affected after already playing 10 games though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 I wouldn't consider 22nd in the league in scoring as playing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTH Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Scoring isn't all there is in playing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 But it's a big part of it especially with the new rules. The Habs are 20th defensively so you're saying that defence and offence don't matter in hockey? What's left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuyRock70 Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Originally posted by option+I agree that Théo needs to play better, and that we need to start cashing in a few more chances in front of the net, but I don't think that we're lucky to be in this position. Of our 7 wins, in how many of them were we outplayed? The opener in Boston, maybe. And we deserved to win that game at home vs. Toronto, too. Maybe we've only been outscoring opponents by one goal... but I think this is down to poor finishing and good opposing goalie play rather than luck. If someone came up to me before the year started and asked me what the Habs' record would be 11 games in... 11 games in which Theo played like garbage... I would have guessed 2-9, 3-8 maybe. The fact that we've won so many games, outplaying the opposition in most of them, without having our goalie steal any games for us indicates to me that we're a pretty good team. Sure there is plenty of room for improvement, but I don't think that this team will be struggling to make the playoffs if we continue to play like this. I agree. It is sort of the glass half empty, glass half-full type thing. I tend to believe the ladder. 8-3-1 with Theo playing sub-par?. I'll take that any day. I think that we have outplayed our opponents for the most part and the youngsters have looked great. Once Theo starts rolling, we'll be fine.:hlogo: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 Originally posted by Mark NapierBut it's a big part of it especially with the new rules. The Habs are 20th defensively so you're saying that defence and offence don't matter in hockey? What's left? you do realize that going into tonights game montreal was 9th on defense right? [Edited on 11/1/2005 by simonus] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 No they were 20th in the league in goals allowed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonus Posted November 1, 2005 Share Posted November 1, 2005 what site did you get that from? espn.com and nhl.com both say montreal is 8th in GA and 9th in GAA. http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/statistics?s...006&order=false [Edited on 11/1/2005 by simonus] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Napier Posted November 1, 2005 Author Share Posted November 1, 2005 Yes you're right. My bad. I was looking at it upside down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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