xXx..CK..xXx
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Posts posted by xXx..CK..xXx
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Don’t love our start, only 3 minutes in, but if that’s St. Louis’ best home push at the beginning of the game, we’ll be okay.
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St. Louis is playing Montembeault because the Habs are in a playoff race and he’s the starting goalie. It’s happening around the league, not just with us. Vejmelka has played 13 games in a row with Utah still technically alive. Granted, Ingram has been injured for them.
The only moment the topic came up was this Saturday, and St. Louis has chosen to start Montembeault at home much more often and Dobeš on the road. Dobeš has only started one home game on a Saturday this year.
Dobeš played his first game at home against the Rangers, which was the second leg of a back to back. New Jersey the following Saturday which was an overtime loss, and Dobeš’ only Saturday night home game. He then played Minnesota at home and lost 4-0, and finally Tampa Bay at home on a Sunday, which was once again the second leg of a back to back, where Dobeš was pulled. Since he was pulled, he hasn’t played at home again. I’m not saying whether or not I agree with that, I am simply stating a fact.
Since then, (the very game before Dobeš got pulled) Montembeault hasn’t lost a game in regulation.
The only things that stand out to me when it comes to Dobeš are:
1) He has made some mistakes playing the puck, even though I like having a goalie that plays the puck in general.
2) He got pulled last home game he played.
3) He has a 1-3-2 record since his 5-0-0 start (would be 1-4-2 if Montemebault didn’t get the loss where Dobeš was pulled)
Combine that with the reality that Montembeault hasn’t lost in regulation in a month and a half.
I don’t really think he’s not being played because there’s a book out on him. There’s a book out on everyone, really. It’s simply the reality that Montembeault is the starting goalie and we are in a heavily contested playoff position. If we were 6 points lower in the standings, Dobeš may have had one more start throughout the last slew of games. With that being said, he’ll get one of the next few games considering the schedule and points will be just as important for us. So he’s not being benched simply because there is a book out on him. St. Louis is simply going with his and his team’s man, given the situation.
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Prior to tonight’s games, the following are the playoff odds of each team:
Montreal: 55.8%
New York Islanders: 17.2%New York Rangers: 18.2%
Columbus: 13.9%
Detroit: 5.3%
Based on 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season on hockey reference.Take the stats for what they are worth as Montreal was also recently something like 15-20% only a few weeks ago. With that being said, when I look at the remaining games and strength of opponents, I have Montreal finishing with around 90 points, which is higher than any of the other teams which I have in the mid-80s at most. Despite the odds, I think it’s possible the Islanders will end higher than the Rangers but it should be close with them either tied or within a point of one another.
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With roughly three weeks left in the regular season, playoff season is right around the corner and the final push to clinch a berth is here… for multiple teams.
I decided to make this thread where we can have a clear indication of each team’s remaining schedule, as well as discuss the push and update results, etc.
Montreal Canadiens
March 25: Road vs St. Louis @ 8PM ESTLoss 1-6
March 27: Road vs Philadelphia @ 7PM EST
Loss 4-6
March 28: Road vs Carolina @ 7PM EST
Loss 1-4
March 30: Road vs Florida @ 1PM EST
Win 4-2
April 1: Home vs Florida @ 7PM EST
Win 3-2 (OT)
April 3: Home vs Boston @ 7PM EST
Win 4-1
April 5: Home vs Philadelphia @ 7PM EST
Win 3-2
April 6: Road vs Nashville @ 7PM EST
Win 3-2
April 8: Home vs Detroit @ 7PM EST
Won 4-1
April 11: Road vs Ottawa @ 7PM EST
Loss 2-5
April 12: Road vs Toronto @ 7PM EST
Loss 0-1 (OT)
April 14: Home vs Chicago @ 7PM EST
Loss 3-4 (SO)
April 15: Home vs Carolina @ 7PM EST
Won 4-2
Points: 75
Games Remaining: 13
Home: 6 Games Road: 7 GamesMaximum Points: 101
Strength of schedule:
7-4-2 record since thread creationUpdated Totals:
Points: 91
Games Remaining: 0
Home: 0 Game Road: 0 Games
Maximum Points: 91
New York Islanders
March 26: Home vs Vancouver @ 7:30PM ESTLoss 2-5
March 29: Road vs Tampa Bay @ 2PM EST
Loss 3-5
March 30: Road vs Carolina @ 5PM EST
Loss 4-6
April 1: Home vs Tampa Bay @ 7:30PM EST
Lost 1-4
April 4: Home vs Minnesota @ 7:30PM EST
Won 3-1
April 6: Home vs Washington @ 12:30PM EST
Won 4-1
April 8: Road vs Nashville @ 8PM EST
Loss 6-7 (OT)
April 10: Home vs NYR @ 7:30PM EST
Loss 2-9
April 12: Road vs Philly @ 12:30PM EST
Loss 3-4 (SO)
April 13: Road vs New Jersey @ 1PM EST
Win 1-0
April 15: Home vs Washington @ 8PM EST
Loss 1-3
April 17: Road vs Columbus @ 7:30PM EST
Loss 1-6
Points: 74
Games Remaining: 12
Home: 6 Games Road: 6 Games
Maximum Points: 98
Strength of Schedule:
3-7-2 record since thread creation
Updated Totals:Points: 82
Games Remaining: 0
Home: 0 Games Road: 0 Games
Maximum Points: 82
New York Rangers
March 25: Road vs LA @ 10:30PM EST
Loss 1-3
March 28: Road vs Anaheim @ 10:00PM EST
Loss 3-4 (OT)
March 29: Road vs San Jose @ 10:30PM EST
Win 6-1
April 2: Home vs Minnesota @ 7PM EST
Win 5-4 (OT)
April 5: Road vs New Jersey @ 12:30PM EST
Loss 0-4
April 7: Home vs Tampa Bay @ 7PM EST
Loss 1-5
April 9: Home vs Philadelphia @ 7:30PM EST
Loss 5-8
April 10: Road vs Islanders @ 7:30PM EST
Win 9-2
April 12: Road vs Carolina @ 3PM EST
Loss 3-7
April 14: Road vs Florida @ 7PM EST
Win 5-3
April 17: Home vs Tampa Bay @ 7PM EST
Won 4-0
Points: 74
Games Remaining: 11
Home: 4 Games Road: 7 Games
Maximum Points: 96
Strength of Schedule:
5-5-1 record since thread creation
Updated Totals:
Points: 85
Games Remaining: 0
Home: 0 Games Road: 0 Games
Maximum Points: 85
Columbus Blue Jackets
March 28: Home vs Vancouver @ 7PM ESTWin 7-6 (SO)
March 29: Road vs Ottawa @ 7PM EST
Loss 2-3
April 1: Home vs Nashville @ 7PM EST
Win 8-4
April 3: Home vs Colorado @ 7:30PM EST
Loss 3-7
April 5: Road vs Toronto @ 7PM EST
Loss 0-5
April 6: Road vs Ottawa @ 7PM EST
Loss 0-4
April 8: Home vs Ottawa @ 7PM EST
Won 5-2
April 10: Home vs Buffalo @ 7PM EST
Win 3-2
April 12: Home vs Washington @ 12:30PM EST
Win 7-0
April 13: Road vs Washington @ 6PM EST
Win 4-1
April 15: Road vs Philly @ 7PM EST
Win 3-0
April 17: Home vs NYI @ 7:30PM EST
Won 6-1
Points: 73
Games Remaining: 12
Home: 7 Games Road: 5 Games
Maximum Points: 97
Strength of Schedule:
8-4-0 record since thread creationUpdated Totals:
Points: 89
Games Remaining: 0
Home: 0 Games Road: 0 Games
Maximum Points: 89
Detroit Red Wings
March 25: Road vs Colorado @ 9PM EST
Loss 2-5
March 27: Home vs Ottawa @ 7PM EST
Loss 3-4
March 29: Home vs Boston @ 8PM EST
Win 2-1
April 1: Road vs Blues @ 8PM EST
Loss 1-2 (OT)
April 4: Home vs Carolina @ 7PM EST
Won 5-3
April 6: Home vs Florida @ 5:30PM EST
Win 2-1
April 8: Road vs Montreal @ 7PM EST
Loss 1-4
April 10: Road vs Florida @ 7PM EST
Loss 1-4
April 11: Road vs Tampa @ 7PM EST
Win 3-2 (OT)
April 14: Home vs Dallas @ 7PM EST
Win 6-4
April 16: Road vs New Jersey @ 7:30PM
EST
Win 5-2
April 17: Road vs Toronto @ 7PM EST
Loss 3-4 OT
Points: 72
Games Remaining: 12
Home: 5 Games Road: 7 Games
Maximum Points: 96
Strength of Schedule:
6-4-2 record since thread creation
Updated Totals:
Points: 86
Games Remaining: 0
Home: 0 Games Road: 2 Games
Maximum Points: 86
Current Standings 3/25/2025
Montreal: GP 69 - 33-27-9 / 75 Pts / RW 24
NYI: GP 70 - 32-28-10 / 74 Pts / RW 25
NYR: GP 71 - 34-31-6 / 74 Pts / RW 31
Columbus: GP 70 - 32-29-9 /73 Pts/ RW 23
Detroit: GP 70 - 33-31-6 / 72 Pts / RW 25
Updated Final Standings 4/18/2025
Montreal: GP 82 - 40-31-11 / 91 Pts / RW 30
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CBJ: GP 82 - 40-33-9 / 89 Pts / RW 30
Detroit: GP 82 - 39-35-8 / 86 Pts / RW 30(elim)
NYR: GP 82 - 39-36 -7 / 85 Pts / RW 35 (elim)
NYI: GP 81 35-35-12 / 82 Pts / RW 28 (elim)
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That’s the picture right now. Habs are somewhat in the driver’s seat but any lapse and there are plenty of teams ready to take advantage. Every team in the race have either won their last match or have 2 consecutive losses in overtime/shootout. As a results, every team has been accumulating points.
With that being said, Columbus had 6 losses prior to their last win against the Islanders. They also have a relatively tough schedule for their remaining games (8th toughest in the league).
Detroit has the toughest remaining schedule in the league, the Islanders the 4th toughest schedule and the Rangers have the 14th toughest schedule.
While the schedule for the Habs doesn’t necessarily look easy on paper, they have the easiest schedule on paper amongst the group at 23rd toughest schedule in the league, or 10th easiest.
I have my own personal predictions in terms of how the individual games will go for each team, but with parity in the league, one truly never knows.
With all that in place, if I had to predict who would make the playoffs with all this information in place, I would pick the Habs. Should the Habs miss the playoffs, it will be the first time in franchise history that they miss the playoffs 4 seasons in a row. May the ghosts of the forum continue to make their way into the Bell Center and help our Habs during this final stretch and continue on through the playoffs.
Feel free to use this thread for anything related to the playoff push and any games or information involving the other teams within the race.
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Blues are on a 6 game win streak, which was the same streak Ottawa was on before we beat them 6-3. Granted, the game was at home.
I expect this to be a tough game but we have to realize the Habs are a tough game for any opposing team as well.
A little side game within the game when we realize it’s Binnington vs Monty.
The Blues find themselves in a similar spot to us in the standings in the West so it’s another game like the ones we had vs Calgary and Vancouver on our trip out west.
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1 hour ago, DON said:
Montembeault needs more rest?
Gallagher & Dvorak 2g3a last week.
Carrier 3a
Habs Weekly: More Ground Gained – HabsWorld.net
– Brendan Gallagher is up to 17 goals on the season, his best mark since the 2019-20 campaign.
Montembeault will likely face St. Louis and then rest against either Philadelphia or Carolina since there’s a back to back. I’d rest him against Philadelphia, but we’ll see how things play out.1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:Interesting observation that Monty has a history of fading down the stretch. I hadn't realized that.
This season March has been arguably Montembeault’s best month of the season though so hopefully this season’s different. Last year he was even better in March individually, despite the team’s record. As was noted, usually the Habs have been tanking around this time of year. This year we’re fighting for a playoff spot and Montembeault’s going to have to be a big part of that. -
Player of the game between
Newhook
Drouin
Lehkonen
It was pretty close from all three players. They all ended up with 1 assist and a few peripherals. Drouin played the most minutes by far, therefore more heavily relied upon but was also a -2 when neither Newhook nor Lehkonen were minus players.
Heading into the third period, it was between Lehkonen and Drouin but from that point on Newhook kind of took over. I was leaning towards choosing him as the player between the three but after wanting to do a little more analysis and account for Habs fan bias, I believe it could be Lehkonen after having checked the game cards.
Again my choice would have been Newhook but quiet and efficient Lehkonen may be the official choice.
Then again, Newhook seems to have driven his line a little more with better individual numbers within the game cards. Lehkonen was somewhat carried by his linemates. It’s really an arguable decision seeing as Colorado also won.
After checking more individual advanced stats final
answer: Alex Newhook.
Newhook: expected goals .05, expected goals per 60 1.97, expected assists/points per 60 3.94, shot attempts 9
Lehkonen: expected goals .02, expected goals per 60 .9, expected assists/points per 60 3.63, shot attempts 6
Newhook’s assist was also primary. There is defensive play that comes into factor but Newhook wasn’t poor defensively individually. Lehkonen’s corsi and fenwick were also higher but I believe were amplified by team play.
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With multiple years left on their contracts, Gallagher and Anderson will be here next year and play the full season with us (barring injuries or potentially a major step back from the franchise). Not sure what there’s to wonder about.
Of course Hughes will move them if someone overpays for them or they are part of the “perfect player” package that fans are requesting, but that’s extremely hypothetical. All signs point to those two staying within the lineup.
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I didn’t particularly have an issue with Dvorak taking the shot in the moment. There wasn’t a thought that crossed my mind in a negative way in the moment. He tried to pull a “Koivu” and failed.
With that being said, while Dvorak is indeed one of the best in the shootout on the team statistically, (6/15), he was 6/9 in Arizona and now 0/6 for the Habs.
66.67% on Arizona
0% on the Habs
40% overall (~42% prior to the shot)
There’s no real reason to argue the reason behind St. Louis’ choice but it’s hard to believe he was going with the stats, if he’s aware that Dvorak has never scored a shootout goal for us.
With that being said, Slafkovský is 1/5 in his career and Hutson is 0/1.
It’s easy to say in retrospect what should have happened, though I am sure there were indeed people scratching and pulling their hair out as soon as they Saw Dvorak lineup, but it’s hard to genuinely believe Slaf or Hutson would have done better in the situation based on their history. This wasn’t a time for a teaching moment. Had Dvorak not lost an edge (though, yes he did), he probably would have put it in.
I see why people are upset about the choice but I also see why it happened and there wasn’t such an obvious better choice as people are saying. Not a huge gaffe in decision making if at all, really.
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Let’s go Monty. 🙏
It’s your time.
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9 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:
Third game in a row:
No penalties.
They didn’t listen.
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Well done. The second point is still big though.
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Third game in a row:
No penalties.
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11 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:
Blackwoooood. Blackwoooood.
(If I were there)
Thank you crowd for listening.
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There we gooo. Dvorak. 🚨🚨🚨
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Blackwoooood. Blackwoooood.
(If I were there)
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Beauty Slaf. Beauty Slaf. Beauty Slafff. 🚨🚨
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Newhook making a case. Roy with the finish. 🚨
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Islander blood affecting us 2 games in a row. Brock Nelson with the most recent goal.
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6 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Laine is as useless as he is dangerous
I’m a Laine and Matheson fan but the Laine of today can’t keep up with the pace of a game like this and I agree that Matheson hasn’t been anything special recently, and then that bonehead penalty.
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Another game where Newhook has a great chance and can’t execute.
1-4
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So far it’s either Lehkonen or Drouin in terms of the best game against their former team.
Drouin has looked better visually, though Lehkonen did have a breakaway.
Statistically it’s slightly Lehkonen depending on how much one values power play points.
Lehkonen 0g 1a +1 2 sog 1 block 10:37 toi
Drouin 0g 1a +\-0 0 sog 1 hit 1 ppp 11:35 toi
I’d probably give it to Lehkonen at this juncture but it’s close.
Newhook is not in contention yet in my opinion.
Newhook 0g 0a -1 0 sog 1 blk 9:51 toi
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Undisciplined penalty Matheson. After not scoring on the 5 on 3, not sure we deserve this.
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Let’s go PP. Having the man advantage gets me excited every time this season.
Game #70 Habs at Blues 8:00pm Tuesday March 25
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
8:54 left in the first period.
9-0 shots for St. Louis and they’re about to be on the power play.
We can’t keep this up or we’ll be hearing their goal horn fairly soon.