The Chicoutimi Cucumber
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Posts posted by The Chicoutimi Cucumber
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Exactly the right play at G. Upgrade on the mediocre Auld. No threat to Price.
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Budaj: upgrade on Auld, could maybe handle a stretch as injury replacement in the #1 role, but no threat to Price. Decent acquisition.
Cole: slightly risky because of his travails in Edmonton, but as a player, just what the doctor ordered. That'd be an ideal signing.
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Is there any sign of the Habs doing anything so far, other than striking out with Jagr and Torres (either of whom would have been welcome additions)? Rumours, anything?
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Jagr: right. Philly is one of those teams that always sucks up the big names. Just as I said in the jagr thread - we don't get those types of players.
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Well, too bad about Wiz. If we leave our D as is, we will have foregone the opportunity to have a powerhouse, Cup-worthy blueline in order to avoid overpaying him by $1 mil. This could prove a prudent decision, as was the refusal to sign Souray; or it could prove a penny wise/pound foolish decision, as was the refusal to sign Streit. I don't share the certainty many of you do that Wiz is not a legitimate #2 defenceman, so I rate the chance that we regret this decision as about 60-40.
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Geez, Fathead Hickey estimates that the Habs will have $8 mil to play with AFTER signing Gorges, White, a backup and another minor forward. If he's right, we're in a position to sign almost anybody we want - the question will be how willing we are to take on a bloated contract, which every significant UFA is certain to get in this insanely overvalued market.
So the question becomes...who, in this year's crop, would you be willing to overpay?
I'll confess, given team needs, Cole would be on that list for me. And I still think we should be looking at a quality puck-moving defenceman.
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How many teams have the depth to survive the loss of a Markov/Subban?
Does Boston win if Chara goes down? Would the Wings succeed without Lidstrom? The Flyers collapsed without Pronger last season.
I don't know if you can build in a cap age with the idea that your best players are going to be eliminated. Can you think of a team that lost a major piece like that and was a legit contender? The only team I can think that won a Cup missing their best player would be the 2001 Avs. If you remove a Markov/Subban level player from any of the last 9 Cup winners would they have won the Cup? Think of the 2002/2008 Wings without Lidstrom, the 03' Devils/07' Ducks without Niedermayer, the 04' Lightning without St. Louis, the 06' Canes without Staal, the 09' Pens without Crobsy etc etc etc.
If this was pre-cap and the Habs didn't have to plan on how to fit Price/Subban under the cap in the near future, then they would have re-signed Wiz and money could have provided this type of depth you crave, but I don't know if it is a realistic scenario in 2012.
The Habs can survive a minor to mid-level injury to any of their elite players not named Price (10-25 games), but no team can really survive the devastating type injury that Markov suffered last season and still win a Stanley Cup.
Well, my personal team-building philosophy (not that that's worth much) is that you win from the net out. Our current configuration relies on TWO defencemen who have never taken a regular shift in the NHL, or else one of those plus Spacek. While I don't view Spacek as the useless piece of garbage that some fans do, I find that a risky alignment, especially as he is injury-prone and likely to need his minutes managed carefully. A far preferable option would be to have Hammer in the mix, with Spacek to be relegated to 7th defenceman duties in the event that Emelin or Weber really do step up. (I haven't given up on Hamrlik yet...he may find the UFA market less congenial than he hopes, who knows).
I don't believe that, even in a cap era, winning teams rely on everything working out just so. You've got to have quality depth, especially on defence. Right now we don't have it, unless you count Weber/Emelin/Diaz as 'quality depth' - a verdict I find premature.
Somebody suggested that Wiz could command upwards of $6 mil. If that's the case, then I'll cease to gripe about losing him, as that would be an absurd contract. But it doesn't change the fact that right now, this is a risky defence corps...especially, but not exclusively, if you worry about Markov's injury record.
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This is absolute nonsensical hyperbole.
Gomez the second worst trade in franchise history?
We all know what number one is, but how soon Engels forgets the Chelios/Savard trade. The one where we gave up a player who played another 18 years in the league and won two Norris trophies after leaving Montreal for Savard who produced 179 points in 210 games and wasn't even a factor in the Stanley Cup Final.
Leclair, Desjardins and Dionne for Recchi and Mark Lamb? What about Guy Carbonneau for Jim Montgomery? Claude Lemieux for Sylvain Turgeon? Shall I go on?
Valentenko, Higgins, Janyk? The only way it even approaches the top 20 worst trades is if McDonagh becomes a number one defenseman. Yes, we get it. Gomez has a shitty contract.
Move forward with the rising cap, don't dwell on the past. Gomez is extremely overpaid, but he is not the second worst trade in franchise history. That is just dumb.
It was the second worst trade of the Gainey era - the worst being the Ribeiro trade - and no more than that. Well spoken as usual, Wamsley.
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Time will tell. But it says here he will sign with one of those other teams.
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I've got the answer! ALEXEI KOVALEV.
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In a cap world, you don't throw out assets like this. Good contract with a lot of upside.
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How much of that is tied to the emotional and historical attachment to the name Jagr? If you remove the name and analyze the players current skill set, couldn't you say the Habs did get this player in Robert Lang in 2008?
They also went for Tanguay and it didn't turn out so well.
I am not concerned about winning the free agent PR battle on July 1st.
Oh yeah, I'm not saying we'd be acquiring the Jagr of 1991. If he's as good as Lang was for us, though, that'd represent a major acquisition.
What I'm really getting at is that the Habs, unfortunately (or not), just don't seem to have the glamour or cachet that teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit, the Rangers, Colorado, and a couple of other teams seem to possess. If something cool like Jagr returning to the NHL is going to happen, I just think it'll wind up being with one of those 'glamour' teams, not us. Whether this gut feeling makes any sense is another question.
Of course I should clarify that I won't slit my wrists if Jagr goes elsewhere. But just as a fan, I think it'd be fun to have him in the 
...much as it was great fun to have Kovalev. -
From what I have read and seen, Emelin can pass the puck. Either way, how many Boston Bruins offer up a nice transition pass? Their forwards collapse down low and they to create offense off turnovers.
Nobody thought Streit was going to have an impact in September 2007. Nobody thought that Subban would be our best player in the playoffs in September 2010. The Habs can be a better version of the one that took the Bruins to the seventh game in OT if Markov replicates Wisniewski's play and one of Emelin or Weber are better than any of us have penciled them in for.
July 1st is not the end of team building. The Bruins added Kaberle, Kelly and Peverley in February and the Habs added Wiz in December. I am 100% comfortable in moving forward with a solid 4 of Markov, Subban, Gorges and Gill and watching how the three wildcards develop in Emelin, Weber and Diaz.
You may look back in 12 months and wonder how anybody considered trading Weber or talking about how Emelin replaced Hamrlik. 99% of the league would die for horses like Gomez and Subban who can carry the puck ala Chelios in 1988. I am not concerned about the transition game in the least. Markov and Subban are going to be on the ice for 70% of the game and with Gomez overlap they will be fine even if they don't have another puck mover. Add in a possible wildcard and this team will be fine in transition.
Well, I hope you're right, obviously. It is true that at some point you have to trust your young players (in this case, Weber) to step up. But if either Markov or Subban go down with an injury this team as currently configured is going to have a HELL of a time transitioning to offence and an equally nightmarish time on the powerplay, unless Weber turns out to be for real. I'm not saying the losses of Wiz + Hammer is a crippling blow, but that IS two of our top four from last season and the significance of such losses should not be understated.
Presumably Gauthier has decided, in line with one school of thought on this board, that the main priority should be an upgrade at FW. That's a defensible view - but not my preference.
EDIT: another way to look at it is as a rebuilding year on the blueline: giving Emelin and Weber a real shot. Because I see us as borderline contenders, this isn't, again, an approach I endorse.
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3. We don't know that Gorges and Markov won't be able to skate like they used to.
Yeah, and if they can't, we're screwed no matter what happens.
There IS an issue, though, of somewhat poor fit between our forwards (fast, agile) and our D (somewhat plodding but defensively strong) that is a hangover from the Great Gainey Rebuild of 2009. We have a very clear system built on using our slow but tough D to collapse down low, protecting the slot, and counterpunching with our hornet-like forwards. The key element that makes the whole engine work is the transition from defence to offence that allows for the counterpunch. As it is, only Markov and Subban can reliably generate the transition at an elite level. Hammer is respectable at it, Gorges so-so. Spacek and Gill are abysmal at it.
This is another reason why I wanted us to re-sign Wiz (it's also, incidentally, a reason why Gomez is important to the team structure - he is one foreward who excels at that transition game). The ideal configuration, it seems to me, would be three offensively excellent defencemen (Markov, Wiz, Subban) in counterpoise to three strong defensive defencemen (Gorges, Gill, Spacek/Emelin). Hammer was sort of a middle ground. With both Wiz and Hammer now seemingly out of the picture, we risk entering the season with a fundamental hole in our team structure, especially if either Markov or Subban get hurt. Unless Weber really steps up, the implications could be very serious for our team. Gauthier had better have a Plan B.
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I agree Fleischmann would be a nice fit for sure, but so would Gagne or Leino, but more likely Gauthier will get a Bergenheim, Cole or Arnott type to replace Pouliot's spot eh?
Cole seems like an ideal acquisition, provided we keep expectations under control. In a good year he is a 50-point guy who will likely bounce around the second and third line and perhaps get the assignment of parking his ass in the slot on the PP. If the price is manageable it'd be a no-brainer to me; but Fleischman just feels more like a Hab because he so clearly fits our established mould. It fundamentally depends on whether Gauthier wants to deepen our existing team identity (smart, shifty, versatile) or whether he wants to add missing elements to that identity (Cole's more hard-nosed game). I've gotten so used to the Habs NOT addressing the issue of 'tougness' that the idea of them adding Cole is hard to process...like some sort of parallel universe.
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No way is it 3.9m per. I assume it is 3.9/3, or 1.3 per year. Since Moen got 1.5m (and others have scored higher), Talbot probably thinks he can do better.
It's a very dangerous UFA season. Not only are there too many teams chasing too few good players, there's all those crappy-market clubs trying to hit the cap floor. There's quite a few middling UFAs that could help the Habs, but I fear they're all going to be priced unrealistically.
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I really don't see how Pittsburgh has much money to spend on Jagr (assuming Crosby and Malkin are healthy). And although I won't discount it completely, I would be surprised to see Jagr sigh for less than $2M.
A Penguin, a Red Wing, whatever. Like I say, the Habs never seem to get these guys.
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Why don't we just sign Fleischmann as a UFA and skip all the fooforah?
The real point of this post is that Fleischmann would be a good fit. I agree - his game is very much in the mould of this team.
Louis Moustakas's article on the home page is excellent, and most of the players he lists in the 'Scorers' and 'Pluggers' categories would be useful additions to the Habs in my book. Fleischmann, Cole and Gagné, yes; Belanger and Talbot, yes. The first three in particular could represent exciting 'missing pieces' for us. And I can see Gauthier being interested, especially in Fleischman, Cole, and Talbot.
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Pens made their offer to Jagr today, and he will answer tomorrow. So if Jagr declines, can we say he's as good as ours?
Let the nervousness set in...
Bah, the Habs never get these types of guys. Pencil him in as a Penguin for 2012.
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According to these guys, the talk of moving him is serious. Whether these guys know their arses from their elbows is another question.
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Thanks for the review of the discussion tCC. I'd only add that GF's point seems to be that GMs are making educated guess, but at the end of the day, they are just rolling the dice. While I agree that they are taking chances/trying to predict that which is ultimately unpredictable, I argued that the dice rolling metaphor implies an inaccurate level of randomness - kind of the opposite of educated guessing. Perhaps this is all just semantics, but it actually seems to me to be the very crux of what brings us here to discuss and debate these matters.
It's less like rolling the dice - always a highly random event - and more like deciding to play out the hand in poker. You can never know what the other guy has and therefore whether you can win the hand, but a good player will be taking informed, well-calculated risks based on probabilities.
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This whole discussion got started when I observed that if Latendresse has a strong season, it's going to be painful to see, considering that we got Pouliot back for him and that we just cut Pouliot loose, in effect getting no return for the asset that was Latendresse.
Wamsley's reply that Lats is NOT a 40-goal scorer is altogether reasonable (although his shooting % could conceivably increase if he's playing top-line minutes and getting higher-quality chances as a result). The most likely outcome for Lats IMHO is a third-liner role (which he provided very nicely for us for a couple of years before being dealt).
ForumGhost argued that was Lats does is irrelevant; that even if he scores 50 goals, we shouldn't care (!). This attitude is what's triggered all the debate. While there is always an element of uncertainty in dealing with young players, Wamsley's right that it's their JOB to evaluate talent and make the appropriate decision. Look at Vancouver trading Cam Neely for a washed-up Barry Pederson. They've never lived that down - and rightly so. ForumGhost's attitude would basically relieve GMs of all responsibility for outcomes. 'OOPS! Accidents happen!!' Uh, no...it's the GMs job to minimize the variables that lead to accidents.
If I wanted to be a worry-wart about Lats, I'd point out that he had put together a couple of solid seasons as a role player on our team and had scored 16 goals with minimal PP time; and that he was to some extent collateral damage from the Great Gainey Purge of 2009. He clearly was not prepared to adjust to the JM regime and, indeed, seemed to have mentally checked out on the team after that summer. In other words, he may have been evaluated by JM on the basis of an exceptionally poor and unmotivated two-month body of work prior to the trade rather than his overall development. Having said that, conditioning was always an issue with him and continues to be an issue in Minny - which doesn't say much for his learning curve.
Given the number of NHLers we've drafted only to send elsewhere, asset management IS a legitimate concern for thoughtful fans. Lats/Pouliot are just the latest element in an ongoing debate. But I think it's a valid question.
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dlbar speaks wisdom. Laich seems like a useful player but he's what, 28? It seems unlikely he'd have a huge offensive breakout at this stage of his career. I don't doubt he would represent a good addition to our team; the problem is that with the UFA crop so horrible, he is almost guaranteed to get hugely overpaid.
Hmmm. Maybe bar's right - the market may not be there to support a 'platoon.' I guess Fleischmann can play C...Connolly...Handzus...these guys are options but pretty imperfect. Odds are that the Habs keep Gomer, perhaps go for one of the name defencemen but most likely add a 'useful' middling piece along the lines of Fleischmann. I guess.
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Bummer about Wiz, but I'll withhold judgement until I see the final product...
Habs sign Peter Budaj. 2 years/ $2.3M
in Habs & Hockey Talk
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Good write up. I was uneasy with Auld last season because of the sure knowledge that one significant injury to Price would mean a long losing streak and likely missing the playoffs. Budaj is much more credible as a temporary #1. A very smart, under-the-radar move by Gauthier to address an under-the-radar but potentially grave organizational weakness.