RedSoloCup
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Posts posted by RedSoloCup
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More cause I got bored seeing the same pattern after 40 forwards and the 1st dozen D-men I looked at
Didn't just look at a single year Pre-Post unless that's all they've played since they signed the big deal, many averaged out 3 years prior and 3 years post to compare properly
Having everyone playing in a contract year was more an exaggeration to keeping players hungry, my main point is stats show most don't play as well after signing long term contracts and hardly any play better so why would we want to give a guy like PK, who's in his most critical development years as a d-man and a person, any reason to slack off?
Knowing you have $5MM/year coming your way for the next 6 years regardless of how well you train, practice, play, work with teammates/coaches can't compare to Subban knowing that he has to work his butt off and seriously improve over the next 2 years to be worthy of the money he wants now.
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Ovi change in playing style. Staal nearly killed his brother. With Datsyuk... check Detroits numbers in general, i believe there was a general decrease.
Those are just some cases... but then someone like Cavy in tampa with that huge season. He just wasn't as good as that one season. He has been consistent since. You have to look at why people are giving those contracts. A dude has a phenomenal year! Never repeats it... but just happened to get a contract that year. Is it the contracts fault? Not likely, I'd say the player was just in the right circumstances. Example: Cheechoo... played with Thornton gets 56 goals and 37 goals (slow start)... then gets injured/stops playing with Thornton. (Yes his contract wasn't massive... but that can happen to a guy.)
I agree with Commandant that there isn't a correlation with most players. There is... for a guy like Nikolai Bulin... I believe his numbers skyrocketed in contract years.
OV, Staal & Datsyuk were actually guys I noted as not really changing much Pre-Post
I'm sure if you went through every single player you can find an excuse but there's just too many to be a coincidence.
Gomez, Redden, DiPietro, Yashin are the poster boys but Drury, Vinny, Heatley, Backstrom, Leino, Bouwmeester, Erhoff, Luongo, Horcoff, Bourque, Cammy, Booth, Phaneuf, Komisarek, Nash, Carter, B Richards, Wisniewski, Bryzgalov aren't really anything to write home about in their new deals
People have their different opinions, my experience and looking at the numbers if I could keep guys on 3 year deals to keep an incentive there or to at least limit exposure if for whatever reason never repeat their career years you're not on the hook overpaying people for current performance based on either past performance or incorrect projections.
Giving Subban a 5-6 year deal for big $$ would be a mistake both for his development and risk he never fulfills potential.
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I looked at the top 40 longest contracts for forwards, there's a 12% drop off in production in the years post signing those contracts as compared to the equivalent years prior - this includes the guys with the inner drive like Datsyuk, OV & E. Staal
If you take those guys out it gets alot worse and only a handful actually improved stats
An unusually high number also miss considerable time post signing which to me points to lack of conditioning, which would be expected - who's training harder this offseason, Pacioretty or Gomez?
As for Kovalev & Kostitsyn, if anyone could find a way to motivate either of those guys with anything they'd have saved a lot of coaches and GMs years of frustration.
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Not at all. I recognized there are players that have inner drive to be the best regardless of what they're paid but you can't discount $ as a motivational factor for the rest.
If every year was a 'contract year' you don't think you'd see an improvement in a lot of players performance?
A long term contract that doesn't punish guys for poor seasons or reward them for great ones relies solely on that inner drive, which not everyone has and often lose as they get spoiled.
Pretty long list of guys on mega year deals whose performance has dropped off since signing
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Pro athletes have more zeroes in their account than the normal public but their drive is still the same
I've worked with many multi-millionaires and they still suffer from the 'what have you done for me lately mentality?' disease
You look at all these guys with front loaded contracts and tell me how productive they'll be when their salary gets cut from $10MM to $1MM for the last few years of their contract and that's assuming they can even stay productive until that slide happens.
They won't be happy they got that $20MM bonus in the beginning, they'll be Shane Doan's age wondering why they only make $1MM while the other guy is making $7MM
Might have some hope with the older guys who've developed a work ethic on short term contracts but for a guy like Subban I'd rather go higher salary on 2 years to keep him in check.
In a perfect world they'd all be on either performance based contracts or 2 way deals to keep them motivated
Will never happen of course but there would be no Gomez's in that NHL
personally I love to see other teams laying out the multi year deals cause it usually handcuffs them from icing a competitive team
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I'm with you on the long term deals (as long as we don't trade for any of them). You can't cure stupid, ink won't be dry on a new CBA before the same GMs will have found a new loophole to exploit.
I lived in Calgary when the Flames threw stupid money at Phaneuf - and Dion was a better overall d-man than PK at that age (sorry just threw up in my mouth a little too), Phaneufs head swelled, got out of shape, couldn't be coached, and we know the rest.
Subban is a great talent and our best d-man but he is not a can't miss guy. I think it's critical to keep him humbled and make him work for his next big contract.
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Long term deals when contracts are pretty much guaranteed don't work. There's a handful of players that have an inner drive to be the best, everybody else needs a carrot to chase.
I've managed people the last dozen years, I can throw a $25,000 raise at someone and give them nothing for 4 years or give that person $5000 raises for 5 years.
In the 1st instance they make an extra $125K, over the 5 years they love me for 6 months and hate me for 4.5 years and don't perform.
In the 2nd scenario they only make an extra $75K and like me for 5 years and keep performing.
It's the exact same if those are $100 raises or $1,000,000 raises, it's all relative and it's how people are hard wired to respond.
Obviously stupid stuff happens when you're competing with other GMs for UFAs but if you can keep incentives during RFA you're much better off, the way Montreal does the short contracts is great IMO.
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Not much love for any of the Bs
Seems like you have to undergo a frontal labotomy to put the Boston jersey on, even Dr.Recchi got caught up in the crap
Man up when you do something stupid
Pacioretty leapt into the stanchion
Ference had a glove malfunction
Marchand 'protected' himself by clipping his opponent
Only guy I respected was Thomas and he took one too many pucks to the bean and is channeling a Joaquin Phoenix/Bono hybrid personality
They're all good players but I'd have to retrain them before they ever put on a Habs jersey.
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To be fair Carey's only leverage coming out of his ELC was the Habs traded Jaro 1st, Price had a pretty crappy contract year
PK, Carlson, Del Zotto and Kulikov seem to be in a holding pattern so I'm not panicking. With Mezaros out now also for Philly an offer sheet has to be on their mind given what people want in trades and a weak 2013 UFA market where Douglas Murray and Edler along with a bunch of vets are about it.
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Some buzz on the net about Yannick wanting out, he's denied the report but regardless looking at the depth chart he has to be thinking he's the odd man out.
Seems like he's been around forever but only 23, good numbers in Kitchener and Hamilton, even his NHL stats aren't horrible given he's bounced from wing to D to press box.
Would we be giving up on him too early and regret it?
Don't think we can send him down without clearing waivers anymore so either he makes the roster or he'll be on the move, the Isles might be a good trade partner to pair him with Streit but what is he worth?
Would love to get a guy like Matt Martin but thinking we'd have to throw in some extras to make that happen
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He was invited to the camp.
He got hurt at the camp
Now he is not participating in the summer tourney because of that injury.
Thanks for the update, thought it strange and google came up empty, hopefully nothing too serious and he can still make the team
Always more interesting watching the WJC with Habs prospects in there
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Little off topic but is there something wrong with Collberg?
Most everyone proclaimed we got a steal in the 2nd round and now just reading he's not even invited to the Swedish WJC camp.
Odd for a guy to play that well on a gold medal squad not to at least get an invite unless he was a lock for the NHL which can't see that happening.
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At the risk of flogging a dead horse, and because theres not much else to talk about, if Markov returned to something like his old form, do you think the oilers would consider this trade at the deadline?
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Don't see it happening, if Markov moves at the deadline it will be to a contender (assuming neither Mtl or Edm are) and nobody usually wants to give up roster players at that point, maybe picks and a prospect or 2.
Maybe the Caps with his buddy OV there who lost Wideman and Green being a question mark might pay a little more than others, I'd seriously consider a guy like Tom Wilson if he was available
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Think that'd be a tough sell. Markov would have to prove he's healthy to get his trade value up and then I guess we'd have to decide if we keep him knowing his history, still a healthy Andrei is probably more valuable to us than what we'd get in return
Guys of Yaks level would be unlikely but maybe a guy like Fillpulla with the Wings needing D if we wanted to hedge our bets
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Ok. Tend to agree with what you are saying. To play devils advocate a little, would you trade Markov for Yakupov?
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In a second but Markov's missed pretty much the last 2.5 years and comes with a big cap hit - he's close to the Gomez class for untradeable unless he can show he's returned to form, the 2012 version wasn't much to write home about.
Younger guys usually bounce back from knee injuries but older guys not so much, I blew out my MCL over a year ago and doubtful it'll ever be the same
Heard rumblings before the draft the Oil would've dropped to get Murray if they could've gotten something of value in return or potentially even part with Hall in return for a top end D after picking Nail but that was prior to them landing Schultz, doubt they'll be moving any of their top guys now - will be interesting to see if paybacks a bitch for Lowe when some of his big name RFAs are up next year.
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Funny world these guys live in when a 300% raise is considered lowballing but everyone's been pumping PKs tires the last 2 years so it's to be expected.
2 year/$5.5 MM (yes agent denies, why wouldn't he since he also reps Del Zotto - haven't heard denial from MB) is a fair deal and Habs have precedence on their side, Subban is probably pointing to deals Yandle, Seabrook, Staal, Myers signed coming off ELC - he's not as good but media/fans have made him out to be so he thinks he is so this will probably drag out as Subbans only leverage is to sit out.
Then there's the Lowe factor - desperate GM offers a 1000% raise for 4 years for a rookie Dustin Penner - yes matching put the Ducks over the cap but you don't think Burke would've found a way if it was Getzlaf or Perry being poached? The fact we have cap space and lots of money shouldn't make Subban priceless
There's always an idiot GM out there, otherwise there wouldn't be really any problems with the current CBA.
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What do you guys think about Eric Fehr? 1st rd pick (18th overall)
Is definitely a big body and had bad luck with injuries. Currently UFA and could probably be had cheaply. According to TSN plays both RW and LW.
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Yeah looked at him a few days ago, not sure if we want to bring in another project with the number we have already
Cheechoo also caught my eye - traditional RW though - but coming off a decent year in the AHL, hard to believe someone can crash & burn that bad but he wouldn't be the first to be carried by an all star centre
maybe an invite to camp if they're still sitting but think the only really serious upgrade is via trade at this point or one of the kids lighting it up
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Preaching to the choir
I would've capped him at $3.5MM/yr on a 2 yr deal but I'm sure PK has watched the stupid money a potential one year wonder like Harrison got from the Nucks cause they were desperate and is looking for a bigger payday especially in advance of the new CBA
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Reports MB offered PK 2 yr/$5.5MM 'show me' contract offer like Price's
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=402069
Realize it's just negotiating tactics but if that's true, as rare as an offer sheet is, got to believe desperate teams like Philly, Detroit and even the Preds are watching this closely to see if there's an opportunity to pry him away with a longer term deal in the 5 yr/$30MM setting compensation at a 1st, 2nd & 3rd
Habs would most likely still match but my guess is that's a whole lot more than they're hoping to pay on a unproven product based on the starting bid.
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I wouldn't trade Plekanec for Statsny 1:1.
The 3rd line slot was an option more cause only way Gomez and his 7+ cap hit makes the team is if he's turned around his offensive game enough to play top 6, he doesn't bring anything else to the table to warrant taking away development of Eller or physicality of White and if Galchenyuk is not NHL ready to play centre in the top 6 I'd prefer he go back and dominate junior at that position than play this year on left.
Ideally Galy makes the team, Pleks is top line centre and new bottom 6 guys like Prust/Colby and a healthy White/Moen take some of the PK and shut down time to free Tomas up to concentrate on his offensive game and work on faceoffs. Then DD on Pleks wing and Galy in the 2 hole, Eller 3rd.
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Agreed on contending, problem is we are really deep at centre when you look at a depth chart just not really strong when you look at the individuals, hopefully Galchenyuk is the savior.
But like someone previously posted would be nice to see if DD can play without the twin towers before we have to re-up him. Think there will be a lot of line juggling in the pre-aeason
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Dunno, when you start looking at all the pieces and question marks damn near impossible to predict a lineup.
DDs size, defensive game and offensive talent make him a better winger IMO. When I watch him play tough not to think of Marty St. Louis with weaker skating ability.
Dont think you can play him with Gio so maybe DD/Pleks/Cole followed by Patches/Gomer-Galy/Gio
Other option if either of the Gs make it is to keep the 2 1/2 men line together and put Pleks in the 3rd hole - not a slight but more because hes our best and really only shut down guy - Ellers FO stats werent the best last year and don't think he's ready to go head to head with the leagues best, maybe he goes to Pleks right side with Moen on the left to mentor under Tomas. This of course still leaves a guessing game for LW in the top 6.
Honestly highly unlikely either Scotty or Alex are on the team come October, DD is back between Cole/ Pacs and revolving door on LW next to Pleks/Gio and lots of nights relying on Carey to give up 2 or less
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Any hope Kristo ever plays for Montreal?
Would he have any trade value or does he end up in the Schultz loophole where teams can just wait til he's a UFA.
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Would rather take our chances at Left with Bourque, Leblanc, Gallagher, or even DD (if Galchenyuk makes the team or Gomez finds his game) than sign any of the remaining UFAs, don't think we really want a Shane Doan making $7MM at 39 especially if RW is our strength.
Maybe Morrow can be picked up from the Stars if the price is right now that he's fallen out of their Top 6 but he's still risky coming off a bad year so debatable if he's an actual upgrade.
2013 UFA LW class looks pretty deep if all of the above fail, would rather throw big money at a guy like Clowe or Hartnell next year if they don't resign extensions.
Will be a very interesting Pre-Season, big decisions to make on Scotty's fate and if Gally sticks - with his $3+MM ELC and missing last season it's a long shot but there's got to be a part of MB that wants to showcase his biggest addition to the club so I expect him to get to audition for the top 6, better for him to go back to Jr than play bottom six - mind you thought the same about Seguin and apparently didn't really hurt his development.
2012-13 Habs lineup....the Defence
in Habs & Hockey Talk
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And you could be 100% right - hope that you are cause he has the talent to be top 10 dmen in the league and he's my favorite Habs dmen since Chelios
Just trying to avoid the risk of complacency that I believe many of his fellow players suffer
Guess we'll see when he signs