tomh009
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Posts posted by tomh009
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40 minutes ago, Commandant said:
Scherbak, Juulsen, Poehling, Brook.... they were 1st and 2nds too.
Late first (and late second), though, not early.
Nevertheless, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. So, to me, the particularly encouraging thing is how well our young D have played in the NHL in spite of their young age and lack of experience. Not to mention Caufield and Slafkovsky ...
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I took the point of PMK’s post more as a reminder that we tend to get excited about prospects but the reality is that many of them do not make it to NHL regulars, let alone impact players. Not so much about whether the picks were good or not.
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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
He's 30 and really only became an NHL regular at 29...AND his current strong season is a pretty huge statistical outlier. I dunno, hard to feel that he was "one that got away;" how long are we supposed to keep guys in the system? 🤷♂️
I know, I'm with you on that decision. He was consistently a sub-.900 goalie in the AHL, and at 27 it made no sense to keep him any longer.
But somehow he put his game together after that, and hasn't had an NHL or AHL season worse than .899 since then. No way I would have predicted that! (Should I add that goalies are voodoo?)
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1 hour ago, DON said:
Have 1 top-4 d-man at present
Is that Matheson or Guhle?
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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
One of the things that's happening is that several of our prospects do, in fact, seem to be delivering at the NHL level, which is more than most of the turds in that post ever did.
Well, ultimately Lindgren really did work out ... after the Habs gave up on him!
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21 hours ago, Commandant said:
13-2 in shots and 2-0 in goals.
I stand by what i said last night, not close to a playoff team. Too inconsistent.
Inconsistent indeed, beating the Avs and losing to the Sens. Some of that is more likely than in the past decades given the level of parity, but, still ...
So what is it, I was thinking. It wasn't two or three players having a bad night, it really seemed more like a team (lack of) effort. Back to back, yes, and that probably matters more for the top line than for others, with Suzuki et al playing 20 minutes on two consecutive nights. That line was down to the 25% range for xGF, which is pretty grim. Does St-Louis need to do some load management on this line? Armia-Monahan-Roy were around 70% (yes, weaker opposition) but they play significantly fewer minutes.
Overall, though, as ugly as the score was, the Habs actually had chances. The xG for the game was 3.87 (Ottawa) to 2.62, not a blowout by any means. Shots were 37-23, so a simil;ar ratio. But a few unlucky bounces for the Habs, and not so stellar goaltending (.861, -1.39 GSAx) did not help, and we ended up at 6-2.
And the night before ... xG was again for the opposition, with NJ expected to score 3.87 (identical to last night!) and the Habs 2.99--but on that night Montembeault saved all but two. So, goaltending definitely a factor.
So, apart from the Habs maybe being tired and playing their third-string goalie, what else explains this? The Senators very much looked like they were psyched up for this game and raring to go, and the Habs were not. How much of this is this mental preparation?
I have many questions, no real answers. Yes, we need consistency, but what is key to that? How can they become consistent? Is this a coaching issue more than anything?
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After a hard-fought victory in New Jersey, the Habs head to Ottawa for a second game of a back-to-back. Will they take the Senators seriously enough or will it be a San Jose-style letdown?
We'll be looking forward to the new 14 to pot a goal or two tonight.
Habs' lines:
Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovsku
RHP - Evans - Gallagher
Roy - Monahan - Armia
Pezzetta - Stephens - Ylonen
Guhle - Matheson
Struble - Savard
Harris - Barron
Primeau
Allen
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1 hour ago, Commandant said:
Were the OT points from 2021 repeatable in 2022 and 2023?
No, they are an anomaly so counting on them again next year is a fools errand.
They might lose some of those games, they might win some in regulation and yet others might still go to OT. So, sure, the total points would likely be somewhat less, but it wouldn't be zero, either.
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1 hour ago, Commandant said:
Even with Dach and Newhook back, they need a game breaking talent up front to take the next step.
There is certainly progress being made, and thats good. But its slow and steady right now, i dont see a big jump without adding talent.
For the big jump to contender, they certainly need to add some talent up front. But I could see a smaller step to making the playoffs based on the talent currently in the organization and trades this TDL and summer.
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I really like how Caufield is becoming more versatile: not just the one-timer from the circle, but back-checking, passing and playing Gallagher in front of the goal. That makes him much more difficult to play against.
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Today's lines added to OP.
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1 hour ago, Commandant said:
The standings js weird.
A game that goes to OT is counted as both a win and OT win... or a loss and OT loss.
So (wins - Ot wins)= the number of 3 point regulation wins
That does work! But the loss number does not include OTL. Very very very strange.
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It appears that the PWHL is confused about whether to give two or three points for a regulation win.
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Did you know that the Habs have only met Devils once in the playoffs (and it did not end well)? I had not realized that ...
Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovsky
RHP - Evans - Gallagher
Roy - Monahan - Armia
Pezzetta -Stephens - Ylonen
Matheson - Guhle
Struble - Savard
Harris - Kovacevic
Montembeault
Primeau
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1
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2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:
I wish we had let him walk and resigned Lekhonan to the same contract, but that ship sailed a long time ago. Typical MB and his size fetish.
While I would have preferred to keep Lehkonen, you also have to remember that we would not have Barron (or the 2024 second) had we done that.
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8 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
Armia is playing well, however - defensively and on the PK. He’d be a useful deadline acquisition for some contender if his salary were not so absurd.
At TDL, on an expiring contract, it might actually be OK as there is only 25% left to the season anyway. But he's still got another year left, so that doesn't apply now.
In the meantime, I'll note that his seven goals are actually all since he returned from his Laval stint, so 0.33 goals/game! 😂
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4 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
I watched that game via PVR and was really struck by how excellent our #1 line was. Frankly, it was as good as the MacKinnon line - and may evolve into one of the NHL’s dominant lines if CC can find his scoring groove.
The way I saw this game was that the Avs completely, laughably dominated us almost every time the #1 trio was not out there. Nonetheless, we eked out an improbably win, which is always nice.
I only saw bits of the game, but the advanced stats say that the #1 line indeed held its own (about 50% xGF)--but the fourth line also outworked the Avs' fourth line. Our second and third lines were badly outmatched, though. I suppose that this is what we get for having our entire second line on IR ...
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Another playoff team comes to the Bell Centre for a visit.
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Projected lines:
Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovsky
RHP - Evans - Gallagher
Roy - Monahan - Armia
Pezzetta - Stephens - Ylonen
Matheson - Guhle
Struble - Savard
Harris - Kovacevic
Allen
Primeau
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18 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
Not useless ... but far overpaid for their contributions.
Right. But we can’t change the contract. And if we trade them, we have to hove up assets—and we make at least the PK worse. Doesn’t make sense when we have cap room anyway.
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24 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
I am always a bit dubious about "per 60" stats for low TOI players as their production is generally against other low TOI (i.e., less talented) players.
I did note that ("Suzuki faces much stronger opposition ...") but arguably Anderson's opposition is not all that much more talented than Ylonen's.
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17 minutes ago, DON said:
Habs are 32nd in PK over last 2 years.
So not sure Armia helping much?
Armia and Dvorak have the Habs' lowest GA/60 of all the forwards on penalty kill. Take out both, and for sure the PK will get worse yet.
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55 minutes ago, DON said:
Armia 17:58 Ylonen 8:00, too bad icetime wasnt reversed
There was 5:22 of PK time, which Ylonen doesn't normally do--although I think he did when Armia was in Laval.
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He doesn't get much ice time, though. Looking at points/60 (five on five) for our forwards:
Pezzetta 2.03 (0.25 goals)
Newhook 1.78 (1.19)
Ylonen 1.38 (0.59)
Evans 1.36 (0.25)
Suzuki 1.34 (0.48)
Pearson 1.29 (0.65)
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Anderson 0.88 (0.55)
Armia 0.83 (0.83)
Yes, Suzuki faces much stronger opposition, but Ylonen's output is very credible when you relate it to the amount of ice time.
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3 minutes ago, DON said:
Caufield 1g 4 shots in the 1st (rest of team had 2 shots) .
Did the high one that he tried to swat in count as a shot? That was Gallagher-worthy.
2023-24 Montreal Canadiens Discussion Thread
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
Montembeault looks pretty good this season, his GSAx/60 is tenth-best in the league. And if we take our sad-sack PK out of the picture, he looks even stronger (no, he's not a Vezina candidate, at least not yet). Very happy that the Habs stuck with him and gave him the opportunity to improve his game.
On the downside, it's not helping the Habs to get a better draft pick this summer.