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Everything posted by tomh009
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I like Basu and Godin a lot. But I am not agreeing with their conclusions here. They are talking about 6x$3.25M as a fair contract for Evans, which it well might be. The cost is OK, and they think the Habs would be OK with the term. But then they talk about Evans mentoring Kapanen and Beck ... for six years? Seriously? Those two, who have pretty good odds for being solid 3C/4C (or better), surely cannot be held back for another six years. And that's the primary reason why I think any Evans contract should be 3-4 years max. Of course I'm not Hughes. 😂
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2024-25 Montreal Canadiens discussion thread
tomh009 replied to tomh009's topic in Habs & Hockey Talk
Yes ... but would you rank Jarry a tier above Montembeault? It seems to me that too much weight was given to career performances as opposed to how the players are performing in, say, the last 12 months. -
2024-25 Montreal Canadiens discussion thread
tomh009 replied to tomh009's topic in Habs & Hockey Talk
Montembeault was ranked 26th. Here is what they said: On the other hand, Tristan Jarry, ranked 21st: -
From the Call of the Wilde thread on twitter: “It feels like every single goal of Laine’s this season is the same set-up. He gets a feather of a pass on the tape on the left side and he rips it top corner.” And: "You see it. 21K in the stands see it. The opposing team scouts it. And they are still powerless to stop it."
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It would indeed. The management team would have a good idea of the total expected bonuses and whether we can fit them in next year, it's hard for me to guess how significant a problem that is.
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As a footnote to my flowchart, you will note that in the scenario where we trade Evans, we will end up losing Dvorak for nothing at the end of the season. Based on my assessment of Dvorak's trade value, that's a reasonable cost for keeping a veteran centre for the remaining quarter of the season. Oh, and we do have one retention slot: we surely would not need that for an Evans trade so I would likely use that for Savard, or, failing that, Armia.We'll have two additional retention slots opening up on July 1 anyway.
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The way I see it, this year's TDL is about managing the pending UFA contracts. While Bergevin's "get in the playoffs and anything can happen" almost came true in 2021, I don't expect that Hughes will be pushing for that this season. What he wants is meaning games in the spring. So, don't strip the team but don't let meaningful assets walk away, either. I do believe that Savard is gone, assuming that Hughes gets something in return; Struble has already filled in well enough for him, and we have the Mailloux option as well. And changing one D-man does not destroy the chemistry or cohesion of a defence corps: it didn't when we got Carrier for Barron, either. One the other side, Matheson is unlikely to be moved.Losing him would have a much bigger impact, and he is on contract for next year still. The 2026 TDL may be a different matter, but let's wait and see on that. So, the key to the forwards has got to be Evans, and what he would accept from the Habs. If we can sign him for 3x$4M or 4x$3M I expect that Hughes will not hesitate to pull out his pen and get the deal done. But if he wants a big long-term deal, something approaching 6x$4M--and he might, given that he has never had a contract at even $2M AAV before--that surely isn't going to work for the team. Where exactly that line is, only Hughes and Gorton know. So, instead of a spreadsheet, here is my flowchart 😊 for this year's TDL.
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Someone (TSN?) was suggesting that Habs might acquire Yanni Gourde from Seattle. He's expensive at $5M+ so the trade value should be fairly low and we have the cap space. If Hughes gets a first for Evans and decides to trade him, could we pick up Gourde as a cheap (in terms of trade) veteran C replacement for the rest of the season? He's already 33 so might accept a short-term contract beyond this season, too.
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The 19th Annual HabsWorld Regular Season Prediction Contest
tomh009 replied to Peter Puck's topic in Habs & Hockey Talk
We're now halfway through the season, and after having plumbed the depths of the standings the team seems to have found its form in the last 20 games or so. 43 points is on pace for (yes, yes, I know) for 86, better than the majority of the predictions. And if things stay as tight as they are now, that 86 might even be enough to make the playoffs. We have five players at 10+ goals but who would have guessed that list would include Gallagher, Evans and Heineman? Suzuki and Hutson on pace for 84 and 62 points. hab29retired and GHT120 in range for Suzuki's total but only Dalhabs forecast Hutson at 60+ points. We shall see whether "on pace" translates to full-season totals but this team is certainly fun to watch and I'm looking forward to the remaining 41 games, regardless of what Hughes does at the TDL. -
2024-2025 Laval Rocket discussion thread
tomh009 replied to alfredoh2009's topic in Habs & Hockey Talk
We should probably ask for at least Stützle and a second!