tomh009

Flyers also have two games on hand.

Yes. But if Dach continues to improve, we would likely be committing more than 30% of our cap space to C. Is that a good idea?

Two games without points isn’t exactly a drought yet. Suzuki, for example, went three games and then two games without points, just this month.

He's scoring at a 0.33 goals/game pace right now. At 14% it'd be about 0.18 goals/game, or about 15 goals per season. That would be perfectly respectable on a third line, I think. (It's worth remembering, though, that he would not have Suzuki next to him on that third line.)

Not really “superstars”; in his analysis, for forwards, for example, it would be the number of 75th-percentile players, or legitimate first-line forwards that mattered the most. So, if you can have a one-two punch of top two lines filled with first-lune quality forwards, for example, your odds improve significantly. (Also top pairing defenders and top-10 goalies.) As I recall having more such players than the opponent gives you something like a 67% chance if winning any given series.

Or Gurianov, for another example?

Remember that you are comparing a 19yo player to a nearly 23yo one. Hutson will definitely put on some weight yet, and possibly is not quite done growing yet, either. The big question is what his defensive ability is. He is an offensive force, and that's how his team is using him. Would he be able to defend better given the chance and the right direction? We shall see ...

St-Louis had no option. He has to dress a full lineup if he has 20 healthy players available.

Is Hutson the only D-man on the list?

Yes, but there is also the other possibility: injured players are moved to IR more quickly now, because the season is not critical. Players often play injured -- see Weber, Shea for a prime example, Montembeault, Samuel last season, or even Wideman, Chris, for a recent instance -- especially when teams are hunting for a playoff spot or actually in the post-season. Given that we are not trying to get into the post-season, the bar for moving a player onto the IR could be significantly lower, and, as a result, it would look like we have more injuries when, in fact, we are actually getting them treated more quickly. This is totally hypothetical, though, it seems like a viable theory, but I have no evidence to back it up (nor any evidence to discredit it, for that matter).

We particularly need Florida to finish out of the playoffs, though, to get that second top-15 pick.

If you draft too many goalies, they end up sitting on the bench or in the press box as there are not enough games for them to start in AHL or ECHL once they graduate from junior or college, and the prospects take a long time to mature. So then you have to release some of your prospects, and you risk letting go someone that still has potential (voodoo and all that). That's why most teams draft only one (or maybe occasionally two) goalies per year.

Dvorak, too, gone for the rest of the season now: https://www.nhl.com/news/christian-dvorak-injury-status/c-342277130 Looks like Drouin will spend the rest of the season at C, unless somehow both Dach and Monahan return to the lineup.

That's exactly how we got Montembeault. He's taken a real step forward this year, next year should tell us whether he can be part of the longer-term solution for the Habs. And we do have a number of goalie prospects in the system still, one of them could be the missing piece for goaltending puzzle. Beyond that, I do expect to see the Habs use a pick or two at this summer's draft on goaltending prospects.

That should help the Laval injury situation a little bit.