tomh009

From the Hockey Canada rules, which are more clear than the NHL rulebook: Rule 7.4 Charging Charging is when a player: i. Jumps to check an opponent. ii. Builds up speed by taking two or more strides immediately prior to making contact. iii. Travels an excessive distance with the sole purpose of delivering such a hit. iv. Violently and unnecessarily checks an opponent in any manner. v. Delivers a body check to an opponent’s blind side. A “charge” may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice. Based on that, I don't think it really was charging. He was not striding immediately prior to the hit, and D'Astous was not even behind the net when Anderson started skating. And D'Astous saw him coming. I don't like whining about the refs in general (as much as I have issues with how NHL referees manage the games). But in this case, I think it was a hard but legal hit, the violence resulting from the Evans hit from the other side. Not that it really matters.

I wouldn't necessarily say that the Habs are in his head, rather that it's Caufield and Slafkovsky. In the last three games, they have scored seven goals (7 of 8 goals scored by the Habs), dragging Vasilevskiy's average down to .873 for the three games. None of us know what is going on inside his head, of course, but I look at how he is positioning himself against those two, and to me it looks like he's worried (or stressed, or whatever) about Caufield and Slafkovsky when they have the puck in a shooting area. But let's see how he responds in the next few games. Maybe it's just a blip. Or maybe he really does have trouble with our dynamic young players. Time will tell.

First period was not so good but they were much better in the second and third. 5v5 data bears that out First period: 1 HD chance, 0.24 xGF, 0.37 xGA Second period: 3 HD chances, 0.40 xGF, 0.21 xGA Third period: 4 HD chances, 0.68 xGF, 0.21 xGA Moneypuck had the xGF/xGA a bit closer, the above are from Naturalstattrick as they break it down by period.

Should be, yes. But it's generally agreed that goaltending is 50% mental and the rest is in your head. And here the Habs have a psychological advantage over Vasilevskiy.

I think at this point Caufield and Slafkovsky are in Vasilevskiy's head. They have now scored a combined seven goals on him in the last three games (two regular season and the series opener). And this is very much a good thing. (It's probably also the reason why Cooper put the Cirelli line on the ice against the Habs' top line.)

Moneypuck gave the Habs a 3.0-2.1 edge in xG. After a slow start, the Habs really put the pressure on in the third (and OT of course). Need to generate more chances five-on-five, though: neither team really had much there (1/0-0.8 for the Habs). Cooper mostly had his top line playing against Texier-Newhook-Demidov, and they really weren't able to do much: He had the Cirelli line playing against our top line instead, and this worked better for the Lightning:

Dom L's model at the Athletic now has the Habs at 39% to win the series, up from 19%. I can live with that. (Moneypuck has them substantially higher, at 60.9% to win the series.)

Slafkovsky said last year that he wants be a Brady Tkachuk (or something to that effect). He's two years younger, but I think he's already surpassing Tkachuk. He will need some loftier targets.

And a nice Caufield fake on Vasilevskiy to get him to drop into butterfly, then a quick pass to Slafkovsky who had some open net.

We might be seeing a change to the second line on Monday ...

Maybe six is enough? 😊

You think Tampa will get swept, do you?

VPN works. I used ExpressVPN while in Japan and Sportsnet had no trouble with it.

Evolving Hockey's ratings for the two teams, as posted by the Athletic (the charts are visible without a login). Overall they have Tampa with a 79% probability of winning (and a 19% probability of a Tampa sweep). All of our forwards rated below Tampa's top three. Hmm. Only Hutson is getting a full does of love from Evolving Hockey. And I don't really see that Matheson should be in the negative range. However ... Hedman and Dobson both on the IR so the inuries are pretty much a wash so far. And is Vasilevskiy really going to be twice as good as Dobes? At least he has not been for the past 20 games. Let's see what happens when the rubber hits the ice on Sunday afternoon.

Arguably the Leafs were once a great, historic opponent ... until the Ballard years. Back then, the media hype wasn't really an issue, either.