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tomh009

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Posts posted by tomh009

  1. 8 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

    No doubt they have value ... but where they fit beyond next season will, I-M-O, have more bearing on what (if anything) happens to them this summer, or at the 24/25 deadline.

    I have no argument with that. As I said, I think it depends on what deals Hughes makes in the summer and whether he thinks he has better options for those positions. I don't expect that Evans would make much more than his current $1.7M, and Armia would likely cost less than he makes today. Hughes gets paid the big bucks to figure out whether those two (and others) are worth extending, but (at least for me) it's impossible to determine the right choices without knowing what the other puzzle pieces are.

     

    The return for Evans, for example, will surely be just a late-round pick, which really doesn't have much value. And his salary is not onerous, so the big question is who will fill that role in 2025 and beyond. Maybe Beck will be ready? But that is not known yet this summer so I suspect Hughes would not move Evans until he has either another player for this role or higher confidence that Beck will be able to fill it.

  2. 4 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

    I expect HuGo to be making moves based on where they want the team to be in 25/26 or 26/27 ... not 24/25.

    Yes. But PK will be needed in in 2025-26 as well. Possibly after that, too. 🙂

     

    My point really is that players like Evans and Armia do have value beyond their point production. And that we'll need some capable PK players as well. We'll see what Hughes decides to do in this regard.

    • Upvote 1
  3. 37 minutes ago, Commandant said:

    17 goals, good defensive play.  1 year rental. Rising cap and not many FAs.  Someone might bite if they dont have to give much in assets, and struck out on the UFA market 

    Need some additional PK skill on the roster, though. We don't have much beyond Armia, Evans and Suzuki now, and the gap will get bigger yet if we trade Armia.

  4. 1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

    Three of the current roster (Pearson, White, Ylonen) likely not back next season ... Anderson and Gallagher wouldn't be if I had a magic wand ... Armia is I-M-O unlikely to be extended (despite his post New Years play) and hopefully tradeable at the 25/25 deadline ... Evans has one more season but likely will be too expensive to renew as a 4C, and not I-M-O a 3C on the playoff/Cup contender the Habs are rebuilding towards ... so the question is likely whether Tuch's skill, size and aggressiveness gives him a better bottom-6 NHL future than RHP, Pezzetta and any Rockets ... my hope is that in 2-3 years Tuch and Whekaj could be 2/3 of the 4th line.

    It's a lot of assumptions (Armia, Evans and others); so much depends on whether Hughes' assumptions match yours (or mine)--and what deals they are able to make in the summer. Getting rid of Armia, Evans, Pearson and Ylonen, for example, will make our already-weak PK far worse yet, so that would likely be contingent on signing someone that can also take on that role.

     

    Hab's PK TOI this year.

    image.png

  5. 2 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

    The Habs need to learn how to lock down a lead. They are atrocious in that regard.

    All four Ottawa goals were on a man advantage (the last one with net empty) though. Our PK has been somewhat more respectable recently, how is it that the Sens managed to score four on the Habs?

  6. The end of the season for Kapanen: 19:31 TOI but 0g+0a in a 3-1 loss to Tappara (at 34-13-13 the top team in the regular season). That's a 4-1 series win for Tappara and Kapanen is probably moving somewhere else (Laval or more likely Sweden) for next season.

  7. 20 minutes ago, Commandant said:

    Last time there was this disparity was probably the Yakupov draft where he was the consensus #1 but guys like Forsberg, Galchenyuk, Sergachev, Murray were all over the place.

    Sadly, a prime exhibit how even a consensus #1 pick can be totally wrong!

  8. 11 minutes ago, Commandant said:

    I think Mailloux needs a bit more work on his defensive game.  He's only spent one year in Laval and this is a guy who basically missed two full years of Junior Hockey due to Covid, his arrest and suspension, and then his shoulder injury.  He hasn't made that up yet. 

    And Reinbacher is only 19.

     

    So, the right side likely needs to be some combination of Barron, Guhle, Harris and Kovacevic. My theory is that they have played Guhle on the right in order to give him the flexibility to play either side. If that's the case, it should be Matheson and Guhle as the two top D on the left, along with Xhekaj and Struble.

     

    Keep Savard until deadline? That's possible, but since Barron, too, will be waiver-eligible, we'll end up with the equivalent of the three-goalie-rotation but on D this time.

  9. Have been thinking about what the Habs' D corps could look like for the next two years. Not the cup contender version, but the transitional team that should start competing for a playoff position.

     

    So, this is what I have on a (somewhat?) factual basis:

    • Matheson has scored 60 points this season, no mean feat on a team that only has 224 goals, and does not look like he's slowing down
    • Savard does look like he's starting to slow down
    • Guhle is solid and reliable 1LD/2LD, now with some flexibility to play on the right as well
    • Harris flexible on left/right, though better on the left
    • Kovacevic is not stellar but quite reliable on the right
    • Neither Reinbacher or Mailloux likely ready for NHL for another season or two
    • Hutson is a wild card. He's only 20 and seasoning in the AHL would make sense but he'll surely be a target there
    • Then we have Xhekaj/Struble and Barron

     

    I'm thinking that Matheson likely stays with the Habs, unless another GM is willing to pay a king's ransom to get him. For all his defensive warts, he is in the top 10 in D scoring in the league, and that's elite D scoring. Maybe pair him with Kovacevic for stability and balance?

     

    Our help on the right is a few years away, so does Hughes keep Savard? I suspect not, so that would mean that Harris and Barron need to be the other two RD, unless Reinbacher is stunningly good in training camp. I think very unlikely that they would bring him up at 19yo.

     

    So, need a defensive partner for Barron, and a more offensive one for Harris. Is that Guhle-Barron and Xhekaj/Struble-Harris? Or is Hutson really a viable option here? I would think not yet.

     

    Of course, if Hughes trades one of the young(ish) D, all this calculus will need to be redone. 🙂

     

    • Upvote 1
  10. 13 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

    What's interesting about that is Yakupov, Murray and Reinhart were all taken in the 2012 entry draft. Galchenyuk was 3rd that year.  I think without a doubt the worst top 4 taken in any draft in recent memory.

    One of the worst for sure. Things get better outside the top four, especially for D (Rielly, Lindholm, Trouba--and Matheson) but none of the the shiny top four picks turned out to be gold.

  11. 1 hour ago, Commandant said:

    Yeah, medicine in 2024 is so much better than it was 20 years ago or whatever we are comparing it to.  Chances are he's ready to go in 6 months, but probably shouldn't fight as much in 2024-25

    This. Fighting might be dumb but getting injured in a fight is outright stupid.

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