tomh009
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Posts posted by tomh009
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59 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Farrell getting decent line mates tonight let’s see how he does
Second line is interesting, too. Drouin is a playmaker and both Gurianov and Ylonen can finish. Not so sure about the defensive aspects though!
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1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:
Yeah, worst case scenario they catch Arizona and Philly who have easier schedules left than the Habs. Need a Habs loss and a Pittsburgh win tonight.
Flyers also have two games on hand.
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2 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
At face value a trio of Suzuki, Dach, Dubois down the middle would be formidable.
Yes. But if Dach continues to improve, we would likely be committing more than 30% of our cap space to C. Is that a good idea?
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Two games without points isn’t exactly a drought yet. Suzuki, for example, went three games and then two games without points, just this month.
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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:
It should drop to the 14% or so range which is where his career AHL average is. (It's actually lower than that this season in Laval as he has tried to shoot more.) That's still way above NHL average. It's hard for a non-volume shooter to get 20+ goals - not impossible (Byron did it twice) - but there aren't a lot of players that can pull that off.
He's scoring at a 0.33 goals/game pace right now. At 14% it'd be about 0.18 goals/game, or about 15 goals per season. That would be perfectly respectable on a third line, I think. (It's worth remembering, though, that he would not have Suzuki next to him on that third line.)
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12 hours ago, DON said:
Dom Alphabet on The Athletic; did an interesting look at make-up of cup winning rosters and playoff series winners.
Superstars carry the day for cup and playofff series winners.
Boston has the most with 8 this year, sad to say the Panthers also up there with 7 i think it was.
Only 54% of higher 'seeded' teams win series (fancy stats can up that % if betting as Commandant noted before).
Not really “superstars”; in his analysis, for forwards, for example, it would be the number of 75th-percentile players, or legitimate first-line forwards that mattered the most. So, if you can have a one-two punch of top two lines filled with first-lune quality forwards, for example, your odds improve significantly. (Also top pairing defenders and top-10 goalies.)
As I recall having more such players than the opponent gives you something like a 67% chance if winning any given series.
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On 3/20/2023 at 7:20 PM, Commandant said:
I dont have a lot of hope for him
Dude is essentially victor olofsson in buffalo.... or like mike hoffman, in terms of style. He can shoot the puck at an nhl level, maybe even a high end nhl level but the rest of his game sucks.
Or Gurianov, for another example?
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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:
I put Hutson in the same category as Harris, but with a higher offensive/points ceiling. Mete was picked later in the draft and was always a long shot.
Harris: 5'11"/190lbs
Hutson: 5'10"/161lbs
Remember that you are comparing a 19yo player to a nearly 23yo one. Hutson will definitely put on some weight yet, and possibly is not quite done growing yet, either.
The big question is what his defensive ability is. He is an offensive force, and that's how his team is using him. Would he be able to defend better given the chance and the right direction? We shall see ...
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35 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Drouin dressed to just be benched?
What a huge middle finger from your coach
St-Louis had no option. He has to dress a full lineup if he has 20 healthy players available.
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Is Hutson the only D-man on the list?
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28 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:
I honestly think that have to at least explore whether there is something amiss in their medical staff or the team approach to injured players. This is bananas.
Yes, but there is also the other possibility: injured players are moved to IR more quickly now, because the season is not critical. Players often play injured -- see Weber, Shea for a prime example, Montembeault, Samuel last season, or even Wideman, Chris, for a recent instance -- especially when teams are hunting for a playoff spot or actually in the post-season.
Given that we are not trying to get into the post-season, the bar for moving a player onto the IR could be significantly lower, and, as a result, it would look like we have more injuries when, in fact, we are actually getting them treated more quickly.
This is totally hypothetical, though, it seems like a viable theory, but I have no evidence to back it up (nor any evidence to discredit it, for that matter).
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2 hours ago, sbhatt said:
Hoping this will be the first in a string of regulation losses. Need to secure that bottom 5 finish.
We particularly need Florida to finish out of the playoffs, though, to get that second top-15 pick.
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3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:
I expect better from the new management. Why would they repeat MB/TT's recipe ?
If you draft too many goalies, they end up sitting on the bench or in the press box as there are not enough games for them to start in AHL or ECHL once they graduate from junior or college, and the prospects take a long time to mature. So then you have to release some of your prospects, and you risk letting go someone that still has potential (voodoo and all that).
That's why most teams draft only one (or maybe occasionally two) goalies per year.
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Dvorak, too, gone for the rest of the season now:
https://www.nhl.com/news/christian-dvorak-injury-status/c-342277130
Looks like Drouin will spend the rest of the season at C, unless somehow both Dach and Monahan return to the lineup.
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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:
well, most have expressed how goaltenders are voodoo
So, I am thinking that maybe through scouting the revamped Habs can find a jewel in this draft or next or in another organization's depth chart to get the goaltending they need to become serious contenders.
That's exactly how we got Montembeault. He's taken a real step forward this year, next year should tell us whether he can be part of the longer-term solution for the Habs. And we do have a number of goalie prospects in the system still, one of them could be the missing piece for goaltending puzzle.
Beyond that, I do expect to see the Habs use a pick or two at this summer's draft on goaltending prospects.
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16 minutes ago, huzer said:
He did and will play in Laval to end the year. . Struble also signed an AHL contract allowing him to finish the current season with the Laval Rocket.
https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/news/two-year-entry-level-contract-for-jayden-struble/c-342242984
That should help the Laval injury situation a little bit.
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If wishes were fishes, we'd all swim in riches ...
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Don't these Penguins want to make the playoffs? Sigh.
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10 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
That forward group is genuinely terrible but I expect them to be very competitive tonight.
The D pairings look pretty solid and I’m thankful that Wideman sits
It turns out that Wideman has been playing hurt, and that doesn't help his play, and has been limiting his minutes. A snippet from The Athletic:
QuoteWideman has been playing through an injury more or less all season. It would appear a certain movement during the Canadiens skill competition Feb. 19 ultimately knocked him out, but he was already playing hurt.
“I’m just trying to do what I can to manage through it and play through the best I can,” Wideman said. “It’s a wear and tear thing for which there is nothing I can do.”
The well-liked defenceman will try to make it to the end of the season, but only rest will help at this point. Surgery isn’t even an option.
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24 minutes ago, DON said:
Which is fine by me, you would rather see more games vs weak crappy teams? I wouldnt.
That was not my point at all.
What I was pointing out was that Bedard playing for the Sabres would make the Atlantic division playoff fight tougher for the Habs, the issue has little to do with the Habs-Sabres games themselves.
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39 minutes ago, DON said:
One player on an opposing team they play, what 4 times a year?
Not because the Habs play a few games more against the Sabres, but because the Sabres will would be more competitive, making things more challenging for the Habs.
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1 minute ago, GHT120 said:
Will they be able to get him to agree to a one-year deal ... hopefully in 2 years there may not be room for him (as is) in the top 6 (CC - Dach - Slafkovsky - Suzuki - 2023-1st - Farrell/Roy/another-youngster) ... so do you commit to 2 or more years to someone who doesn't currently project to fit?
Only if St-Louis is confident that he can make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
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7 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Gurianov might be getting himself a qualifying offer - 3 goals in 5 games
Edit 8 games
There is no question he can shoot. The real question is whether he can improve his play without the puck.
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Allen out, Montembeault in. Very rare for St-Louis to pull the goalie.
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Quitting a team in the middle of a promising rebuild, after only a year and a half seems really unlikely. And he did sign a five-year contract…