TurdBurglar
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Posts posted by TurdBurglar
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14 minutes ago, tomh009 said:
3-ish and 5-ish ... that's maybe 80% probability that the drafted player will play at least 100 games. Or 65% that both of them will play 100 games. Probability of two impact players is considerably lower.
Mailloux-plus for 80% probability of 100+ NHL games? I would generally always take the prospect that has played at least a year since the draft, as the ceiling and floor are much more clear than for an 18yo.
Thanks for bringing this up. It prompted me to look into it. While it's hard to find a lot of studies that actually did the math, and nearly 100% of top-5 picks played 100+ games, then dramatically drops off after that. Two different studies (from 1988-1997 and another from 2000-2009) Both had 100% of top 5 picks playing 100+ game. Hence why I said nearly 100%, as I haven't found any study doing something like the last 40 years combined.
So both picks 3 and 5 should theoretically both provide long-term NHLers, the quality is the questionable part.
https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/
Also found this that is from 1963-2023, showing the top 5 picks on average play over 600 games per pick position.
https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats
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2 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Bruins gotta start Swayman going forward!
That Tavares penalty at the end of the third was ridiculous. I’m still laughing about it. Leafs got screwed but they were losing anyway.
Bruins, please win on Saturday
The Tavares penalty should of been 2 each, but stick holding is almost never called. You see players tuck the stick under their arm and squeeze because it'll be called a hook 50 times before it's called holding the stick. Tavares did hold McAvoy.
Leafs fans are livid on reddit. I don't understand how getting twice the amount of PP's as the other team are the refs against them.
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23 hours ago, skifaster said:
Trade Cary Price's contract, one of the defense in the logjam, and maybe a draft pick to Utah for future considerations and use the new found cap room to get Jake Guentzal.
One of the plights of Arizona was they had significant cap tied up in dead contracts. It was done out of necessity, but was also a huge factor in why Arizona was in the situation it was in. They snowballed their own problem by trying to solve it. As much as everyone harps on Vegas now for their LTIR usage, Arizona has been doing the same thing in the other direction for years, allowing them to ice a team under the minimum cap, using LTIR to get them to the cap floor.
I would imaging Utah is going to break away from that stigma as fast as possible. I'd be shocked if they take any interest in bad or dead contract unless it's ultimately going to lead to something that makes the team better on the ice. I fully expect Utah to be very aggressive in free agency as they have $23m in LTIR on this roster with only about $47m in committed contracts, essentially nearly $60m in cap space for next season.
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With 3 capable top-6 centers under 25, Dvorak and Evans on the NHL roster, Beck, Kidney and Mesar in the system. I'm not sure how many more a team needs to be considered stocked at center then. Just because a player can play wing as well doesn't make them not a center.
Writing off Dach by saying "it wouldnt be wise to put all the eggs in that basket," is very premature. Crosby missed nearly 2 seasons with much worse concussions early in his career too, nobody wrote him off. Comparing injury time missed not skill ceiling here. With 3 capable top-6 centers there's obviously no eggs all put in one basket anyway.
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1 hour ago, PMAC said:
And then, Hughes hangs up the phone and waits.
Yeah, I very well doubt Hughes will part with a good prospect in a much needed position unless the offer knocks his socks off. Zegras for Reinbacher straight up, but Anaheim would be on a new GM hunt shortly thereafter.
With how stocked Montreal are on LD, I could see Guhle/Hutson maybe on the table. Doubt Anaheim would be interested in Matheson, unless it's to flip him to another team.
We have to remember Montreal is pretty stocked on top-6 centers, so the appetite to add another would have to be pretty low for Hughes. Both Dach (last season) and Newhook (this season) were on pace for 50+ point season, which isn't a far cry from Zegras' numbers. I would read more into trades that involve scoring wingers, RHD and goalies.
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42 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
I get the thinking behind it but you gotta play talent with talent. Imagine playing Gallagher and Armia with Suzuki instead of Slafkovsky and Caufield?Not quite the same situation. The point of why Matthews and Nylander don't play together is both are shooters. Theoretically, every shot taken by one is potentially a shot less by the other. By separating them, they aren't interfering with each other's chances, and you're making another line more dangerous.
Plus it's a chance for Matthews to prove the criticisms wrong, that he is the driving force on his line not that he needs to be part of a duo, unlike McDavid. We all know how much All-Leafs-nation loves to try to make Matthews appear just as good or better than McDavid. Plus Keefe is the type of coach to feed into that instead of whats best for his team (not resting Matthews in gas 82 AND pulling the goalie for no other reason than to get Matthews a goal).
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3 minutes ago, sbhatt said:
I'm hoping for a Bruins sweep, with all 4 games being lopsided . I want maximum pain and suffering for the Leafs and their fans, creating absolute chaos for the Leafs organization over the offseason.
Last one in OT so the Leaf's fans can cry about how the league and refs are against Toronto.
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14 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
It’s amazing to watch the leafs lose in the playoffs.
I think it’s a mistake to play one of the highest skilled players in the NHL, Mathews with two lunch pail type players.
I get spreading your talent around so it’s tougher to shut everyone down but you’re wasting generational talent IMO.
Maybe Nylander takes a spot there.
Pretty sure they tried to force that pairing for a couple of season and Matthews and Nylander don't mesh well on a line together. Nylander is too much of a shooter to be with Matthews. I think the idea was, in the absence of Marner, put Matthews with 2 players to grind it out for him and get him the puck.
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Fells weird to be cheering for Boston.
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2 hours ago, Commandant said:
Anaheim thinks about this for two seconds and says make it your first rounder or David Reinbacher as the RHD and then we can talk.
Then Hughes instantaneously reminds Anaheim they turned down Askarov to get Reinbacher. Askarov has shown nothing to dissuade the idea he's an elite goaltender, which has more value than a flashy 60 point center that doesn't play defense.
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As much as it pains me to see another year of rebuilding hockey, it's been way overdue in Montreal. It's been about 20 years of just ok teams, that may or may not make the playoffs, but had no real shot at a cup. The shots they did have, nobody really saw coming. For the sake of 10-15 years of high quality hockey as the prospect, I'm happy they're staying committed to the full rebuild.
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Arizona relocation could be announced as early as Thursday or Friday.
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Until Hutson is NHL ready, I don't see the left side changing much with Matheson, Guhle and Xhekaj as primary LD. As for RD, it'll come down to who grabs which spot. I don't see Savard, Barron or Harris here much longer. Savard is slowing down as you pointed out and Barron/Harris just seems to be a 3rd pairing guy. Would much rather give ice-time to the queue of higher skill-ceiling behind them than play them for the sake of keeping them, only if those players are ready.
Ideally, I would love to see Reinbacher and Guhle paired together, as I see them spending many seasons paired together. I would love to see the addition of a younger Savard-like RD acquired to slot in beside Hutson in the long run, or that's possibly what the Xhekaj RD conditioning could be about as well. I want to stay cautious about saying Xhekaj being a staple top-4D, realistically he will probably top out a bottom pair Gudas-type guy, but still holding out hopes
I really do see in the next 2-3 years a tough decision being made between which 2 of Matheson, Guhle and Hutson to keep. From a management standpoint, it's a great problem to have.
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Multiple sources saying Arizona is in preliminary talks to move to Salt Lake City.
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On 4/1/2024 at 6:54 AM, Commandant said:
KK is not coming back. End of story. Its never happening, not with all thats gone down.
That seems overly strong. With “all that’s gone down,” it was between the teams, not KK and Montreal.
I may of forgotten something but I don’t believe KK spoke bad about Montreal or his departure, so I don’t see why he would be blacklisted from playing for Montreal again. Not that I think he ever will for completely different reasons.
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23 hours ago, DON said:
Darn shame KK is the 14th highest scorer... on Carolina.
Smug smartass Carolina owner likely not so pleased with that deal.
I heard or read somewhere, and I can't remember where, that Carolina may entertain the idea of buying out KK. It would be a crazy buyout though, 6 more years @ $4.8m on his current deal. It would save Carolina $4m per season for the contract duration and cost about $850k for 6 more years after that, according to capfriendly
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10 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:
Habs played a terrific game, tough penalty on Armia. I thought Evans and Armia were tremendous tonight. Oilers were fortunate to win.
Evans was very noticeable in a good way.
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Going to be in house for this one. If there's one last game they need to win, it's tonight. Going with an Oilers fan.
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7 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:
Colin White will take Michael Pezzetta’s spot in #Habs lineup tonight vs Bruins while Jordan Harris replaces Jayden Struble
Predicting an unfortunate 8-7 regulation loss 🎉
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Will update as more becomes available.
Montembeault to start.
https://x.com/CanadiensMTL/status/1767952557601669248?s=20
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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:
... and because Slafkovsky is another good option, Caufield will also get fewer passes and thus fewer one-timer goals. Good for the team, less good for Caufield's personal stats.
Not necessarily. This plight of the PP for a few years now is only having a single threat, Weber and now Caufield. PKs neutralized the PP by dedicating a player to that threat. With another threat on the other side of the ice the PK can’t dedicate a player to stoping the left circle one-timer. If they do, they risk being flat footed on the PK, beaten down low or opening the slot. All of which create more threats, which open up Caufield again.
It’s how all good PPs function. The more threats on the ice, the more open the biggest threat ultimately becomes.
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6 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:
I think a big difference than earlier this year, is that Matheson is finally passing to Slafkovsky. Before he would be defaulting to Caufield and Suzuki, and seemed to be avoiding Slafkovsky.
I think the biggest difference is last year Caufield was on fire on the left side one-timer. This year, he's cooled off so the team has to look for other options. For development of the whole team, that's a good thing, especially if Slafkovsky becomes serviceable as a right side one-timer.
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Didn't see a GDT and the game was started.
Currently 3-0 Montreal, Primeau in net.
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Permanent Trade Proposal Thread
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
There would a cost attached to LA retaining $2m for more 7 years, even if Anderson only has 3 more years left. The shorter term wouldn't make up for the skill difference and retention alone. You'd also have to believe there's no way LA sells PLD low after paying so much for him just last off-season.
Anderson's value is at it's lowest point now, after last season.