Peter Puck
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Posts posted by Peter Puck
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I think Bergeven did really well here even though he had no leverage. Probably we give up our own pick in the mid to high teens and keep the Canes in the mid 20s. So I expect it will cost us 5-10 spots in the draft. However Carolina's pick might end up in the teens as well.
Realistically I think this makes us better in the long run than if we kept KK. I would have preferred to keep KK and hope he developed into a quality number 2 but I think that may not happen. If it does then Carolina really hurt the Habs. If it doesn't then we end up slightly better than we would have.
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I predict the Habs will release a statement precisely at 5:00 announcing their decision (and any trade if they made one). I'm now hoping they match.
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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:
Kotkaniemi has remained on Montreal's reserve list throughout this process which means he's still property of the Canadiens. They're allowed to talk to their own player even with the offer sheet. If we're being technical, it's actually Carolina that can't talk to him at this point as he's now a contracted player and no longer a free agent.
Thanks, I had misunderstood this point. But now I am wondering about the news that KK and the Canes have agreed to an extension to be signed in January. I guess this is illegal but they haven't admitted it has been agreed publicly.
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Wait, I thought the Habs were not permitted to talk to KK until they matched. But that quote from 2 years ago from Waddell indicates the Canes were talking with Aho before matching.
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I have been thinking about how this whole situation plays out in Carolina. Of course this is only of peripheral interest to the Habs but it might play a role in what happens to KK a year from now if we don't match.
My question is the following. What will the Canes players think about this off season and their GM and their owner? They let a promising young goaltender go for practically nothing. They let Hamilton walk because they didn't want to spend 3 million a year more for him. Now they sign KK for a ridiculous amount clearly to poke their finger in the Habs eye.
I suspect they will have a number of players wishing they had kept Hamilton and Nedeljkovic. I don't think those players will be very happy. It doesn't send the message that their number one goal is a cup. Can anyone argue that signing KK and letting last year's stars leave is a good hockey decision?
It also makes it clear that their GM is not really in control of hockey decisions.
Finally how many of them will want large raises since the team is spending 6 million on KK.
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9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:
Pretty certain he cannot be a UFA until July 2025 (7 yrs pro and 25 yrs-old).
No, he is entitled to a qualifying offer of over 6 million (they could try to reduce this to 5 million but that is unlikely). If his team (us or the Canes) doesn't offer him that he becomes a UFA immediately.
This is the real problem with this offer sheet. It effectively establishes his salary at at least 6 million for the next 4 years.
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2 hours ago, GHT120 said:
How do they "end up with KK"? KK would be a RFA next summer and the habs would try to get a reasonable extension or trade him before July 1st ... no guarantee he ends up in Carolina unless they (a) trade for him or (b) KK goes RFA and they again send him a ridiculous offer sheet (in a summer they have Niederreiter & Trochek as UFAs and Necas, Bear & Deangelo as RFAs)
If we match, then next summer his QO will be 6 million.
We can try to get a reasonable extension but why do you think he would take that instead of becoming a UFA? Unless KK breaks out this year I don't see us paying him 6 million for 22-23 season. If we don't offer him 6 million he can choose to become a UFA.
Maybe he would accept a long term deal at 5 million AAV but (1) I am not sure he accepts that without testing the market and (2) he is unlikely to be have convinced the Habs he is worth such a deal by next summer especially with our other RFA's needs.
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If we match then next year Carolina will offer sheet Suzuki for 10 million. We would have to match that and let KK go. So Carolina ends up with KK and keeps their picks. We end up paying KK 6 million for 1 year hoping he breaks out (which I doubt he does in this season).
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17 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:
They don't want Kotkaniemi, this is just pay back for the aho sheet. That's why it's only a 1 year offer and a $20.00 signing bonus is laughable. It's a F/U to Bergevin.
Now if Bergevin match's it then we get screwed with Suzuki too. We're going to have to pay Suzuki over 7mil.
Yes I agree. The OS is almost certainly a big loss for the Habs. But if we don't match this really hurts Carolina. Whichever team ends up with KK will have screwed up their salary structure. The Hurricanes have to sign Niederreitter, Trocheck and Necas next year. All 3 could easily end up with better stats than KK. What will Carolina do then?
If we do match we will have the same problem.
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4 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:
Of course revenge is part of it. I mean, announcing it in French and putting in a $20.00 signing bonus makes that plain as day. But they wouldn't risk making the offer if they weren't willing to risk overpaying for a year before signing him to a lesser bridge deal. There is zero chance they let Hamilton walk in order to so this.
Of course not, but there is no doubt they will make a move to free up the space to match. If he doesn't have a breakout season, then they aren't on the hook long term and can trade him. If he does breakout, then they'd be giving him a big contract anyway.
If he doesn't have a breakout season he won't be tradeable for anything of value. Which team will be looking for a 35 point forward entitled to a 6 million dollar qualifying offer?
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I would be really unhappy if I were a Carolina fan. They let a great prospect go in Nedeljkovic (sp?) and they let Hamilton walk so they could use their remaining cap space on a 6 Million dollar KK who won't even play in their top 6?
Even if we match this was a bad use of their money. If we don't match it's just criminal and the only reason I can see is that they are still furious about Aho.
I don't think they will be as good this year as they were last year.
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10 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:
They wouldn't have done this JUST for revenge. They're not just going to let him walk if Montreal doesn't match. And what does this have to do with having to worry about offer sheets for the next 5 years?
Do you think he is worth 6.1 million now and going forward? If so we could match and there is no problem. If he's not then Carolina is going to have to overpay to keep him or else let him walk.
This is a dick move by Carolina and every team is going to see that. This means there will be no reticence about offer sheeting any of their players, starting with Martin Necas one year from now. Their players will all know this. If you were Martin Necas would you sign next year for anything less than an over payment?
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12 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:
I think it’s a brilliant move by Carolina. The habs were actually vulnerable when they made the offer. 1st and 3rd - which will be a late (20+), first round pick, for a 21 year old that can still be an impactful player?? Not bad family to take.
Even if they don’t get KK, they screwed us over in our cap situation.
im right back to the fire MB camp. He fxcked up to this off-season. Didn’t get the big upgrade needed on D, and now may lose a guy who is expected to be part of the young core. Basically, we put ourselves at risk, by signing at best a #4 dman, and a guy like a Hoffman, before we secured our own key RFA’s. Other teams made sure they made room to match any RFA offer sheets, or signed their key RFA’s.
we have to match, but it means, you now need to look at moving a guy like Gallagher to make sure we have cap room for Caufield and Suzuki.
it would be horrible asset management to let a a centre at KK’s afe and potential to go for a late 1st and a 3rd (or is it 2nd). From draft day onward, MB has fxcked up. Looks like a rookie GM.
We don't have to match. If KK turns into a star this year and we don't match then yes Carolina made a good move. But if we let him go, no matter how well he plays they will have to offer him 5+ million next year or lose him for nothing after giving up a 1st and 3rd. No one thinks he is worth that salary now. I don't think he will be worth 5+ million a year from now.
I agree this screws us over but that doesn't really help the Hurricanes. They are going to overpay for KK and the only reason I can see is that they want to get revenge. From my point of view exacting revenge is not a good way to make decisions.
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I really think this is a mistake by Carolina. They will end up paying 6.1 million for KK and a 1st and a 3rd and then probably let him go for nothing a year from now. Plus they will have to worry about offer sheets on all their players for the next 5 years, and not just from the Habs.
It seems like a funny revenge move now but in the long run it makes trouble for them and they get almost nothing out of it.
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I think you have to let KK go. We lose him for very little but it is what it is.
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Elliotte Friedman tweet:
Michael McNiven (MON) settle: $750K NHL/$100K AHL/$110K guarantee
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I'm not making that trade. Romanov is too important.
Eichel comes with a very large contract and more importantly with serious health questions. You can see his medical records but you can't know what the outcome of his surgery will be.
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33 minutes ago, huzer said:
Byron out for the next 5 months after hip surgery.
Well this explains why the Kraken didn't grab him in the expansion draft.
So we exposed 3 guys with major injuries (Weber, Price and Bryon) and Drouin.
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2 minutes ago, Commandant said:
Lining up the Finns to sign a Swede?
Whoops. Well,they are all Scandinavians.
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Maybe we're lining up the Finns before we try to tempt Pettersson with an offer sheet.
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I'd give Hamilton up to 10 million per year. It might mean that we have to replace Denault by Evans but the resulting roster is better than anything with Denault and any other Dman we can find. The extra 3 million won't prevent us from keeping our young stars long term. We might lose someone like Armia or Drouin in a couple of years but it is still worth it.
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5 minutes ago, dlbalr said:
This was one of the stranger first-round write-ups I've had to do over the years: http://www.habsworld.net/2021/07/habs-select-logan-mailloux-31st-overall/
Yet you did a great job of presenting a balanced view of this which is not easy.
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and right now?
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What teams are left that we can expect to take a serious run at signing Hamilton?
Habs acquire Christian Dvorak
in Habs & Hockey Talk
Posted
Let's compare a 21 year old Chrstian Dvorak (rookie) with a 21 year old KK (3rd year in the league).
Dvorak in 2016-2017 had 15 goals, 18 assists for 33 points in 78 games. Per game that's 0.19g, 0.23 a, 0.42 pts.
KK in 2020-2021 (RS) had 5 goals, 15 assists for 20 points in 56 games. Per game that's 0.09g, 0.27 a, 0.36 pts.
KK in 2020-2021 including playoffs had 10 goals, 18 assists for 28 points in 75 games. Per game that's 0.13g, 0.24 a, 0.37 pts.
Dvokak has improved (slightly) since then.
These numbers don't make it seem like KK will end up better. Plus its clear that C.D. is better defensively and better at faceoffs.