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Peter Puck

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Everything posted by Peter Puck

  1. Okay, I'm going to have to object to the "both" in we are both off. I said the probability all 5 bust was 59% and you say the probability that at least one succeeds is 40.95%. These are essentially (to within 0.0005) the same fact. Regarding your second paragraph, the number of 50-50 prospects went from 1 to 2 between your 2 posts. Anyhow, after the top 15 picks, I'd rather just go for the homerun and pick someone with a high ceiling. Lots of people say this but then complain when the player busts (say Mccarron or Fisher).
  2. Not quite sure you mean this. Having 5 guys each with a 10% chance of making it, means 59% of the time all 5 of them bust. Maybe you are happier because the 5 long shots gives you an 8.5% chance that at least 2 make the NHL?
  3. I predict that MPP will be at the press conference this fall when the Habs announce that Mailloux will be attending training camp.
  4. For us to get the Oiler's 2nd next year, we need Edmonton to beat Colorado and for Duncan Keith to be a top 4 Dman in ice time during the first three rounds. It was close when I checked this a while ago but Keith is now 2nd with 238 minutes and Barrie is 5th with 218 minutes.
  5. I don't think the lottery affects the order of any rounds except the first. So NJ will be picking 5th in all rounds except the first. (But maybe you knew that and I just misunderstood your post?)
  6. No if the Habs ball is drawn first they win the lottery but their draft pick isn't advanced - they still pick first. So it doesn't count toward the 2 in 5 limit. There is no way that the Habs pick can be improved in the lottery and so the 2 in 5 rule doesn't apply to the Habs pick this year.
  7. Thanks. Yes I was wondering what the exact rule was. The hockey news article includes what looks like precise rules from the NHL. I doubt this will affect us, but its really good to not have to worry about winning Tuesday coming back to bite us in a few years.
  8. Okay I found an article from the Hockey news from 1 year ago (when the change was made I believe). https://thehockeynews.com/news/which-recent-nhl-draft-lottery-outcomes-led-to-the-new-rule-changes It includes the following stipulation (written before Seattle joined the league): It’s important to note that the “two in five years” rule only applies to moving up in the lottery. A last-overall team doesn’t “move up” to pick first, so you can win the lottery with a 31st-place finish unlimited times. Same goes for a 30th-place team winning the No. 2 pick in the lottery.
  9. Yes, I tried to find out what the exact rule is. What does it mean to "win" the lottery. I found the site https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds This is the only site I found which described the lottery rules in precise language. I quoted the 5th rule in my opening post. I would find it strange that this site would formulate the rules in such a precise way without accessing the rules from the NHL. I may be wrong but I suspect this is the correct rule .
  10. The Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday My 10 at 7:00pm EDT. It seems we might want to discuss this but I don't see any discussion focused on the drawing The Habs have a 25.55 chance to pick first overall, 18.8% chance to choose second. In the remaining 55.7% of the time we will pick 3rd. Our odds to have our ball drawn as the winners is 18.5%. The best statement of the rules I can find says: "Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning via the Lottery twice in a five year period (beginning with the 2022 Lottery)." This would mean that the outcome this year will not affect us in the future lotteries since there is no way we can improve our position.
  11. With last night's loss to the Senators, we can now declare the winner of the 16th Annual Prediction Contest! Dalhabs predicted 74 points and the Habs currently have 49 points with 12 games remaining. A 12 game winning streak to end the season would leave the Habs with 73 points. The runner-up is titanfan whose prediction of 76 points is only off by (at least) 3 points.
  12. I think it is pretty ridiculous to describe this hit in those terms. KK is trying to play the puck and Eller hits him. I don't see any evidence this hit was unlike most other hits. The other Canes seeing it didn't react at all. It wasn't until it became clear that KK was hurt that anyone was worried about the hit.
  13. Hit happened with 6 seconds left. Its pretty clear the Canes are still playing and trying to score. Should Washington just let Necas get a hat trick?
  14. Yeah I figured 4 years was too much. What teams have LTIR contracts, are willing to take Dadonov and aren't on his no trade list?
  15. The thing about this contract is that Carolina can buy the deal out for 1/3 the cost during the first half of the deal. To me that greatly reduces the risk they are taking. Of course this depends on the way the deal is structured and the size of any signing bonuses. To me the real risk is on KK's side. If he turns into a good player he is locked in at a low salary. If he stagnates, he'll get bought out for 1/3 the value of the deal.
  16. The problem is, once they call it their only two choices after the review are minor or major penalty.
  17. Mailloux scored as the third shootout shooter sealing London's 2-0 shootout victory.
  18. When was the last time we scored an overtime goal?
  19. When was the last time we scored an empty net goal?
  20. Is there a record somewhere of wins and losses on goal and offside reviews?
  21. I agree in general, but I don't think it is at reasonable to claim that she paid for her crimes. She manipulated the system in order to escape any punishment appropriate for her crimes.
  22. I agree just get the best person. If we get an advantage by considering people other teams are overlooking that's great. My worry is that most (but not all) women have come up through the woman's game which is very different. I want someone with some NHL or AHL coaching or managing experience.
  23. I think the Canes offer sheet was a mistake. If KK signs long term for under 4 million I'll change my mind (provided he lives up to something approaching that). If he doesn't, they have a player expecting a 6 million dollar qualifying offer and hence who cannot be traded. I don't see any reason why KK won't wait for them to make him a qualifying offer or leave as a free agent.
  24. I see Godjovich got an instigator penalty for that fight. I believe that's an automatic 1 game suspension for instigating in the final 5 minutes of the third. He deserves it.
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