Peter Puck

I too have higher hopes for the Dmen. I think Mailloux will probably end up being the best of the four. I think there is a good chance he becomes a top pairing defenceman. He's the first round pick and who knows how much of a setback he suffers due to missing so many games. But I think he can overcome that. Predicting Hutson's future seems like making wild guesses. I think the most likely outcome for him is something like Mete. I guess Roy will end up as a solid 3rd line player and Kidney will be a bottom 6 player if he makes it.

As far as I can see, all this discussion about ruining players by rushing them into the NHL is just conformation bias. Every player who doesn't spend time in the minors and then doesn't meet expectations is declared to have been ruined by being rushed. Maybe these guys were just destined to fail. How do we know that players who don't meet expectations after years in the minors weren't ruined by being denied the opportunity to play early in the NHL? Even players like Chara, Thornton, and Carey Price who succeed after being "rushed" are ignored in the analysis. Maybe some of these players only succeeded because they were "rushed".

Mailloux served a 1 game suspension for his actions in and around a scrum at the end of the previous game.

How many times can we fumble the puck away in our own end?

That's Mailloux's 20th OHL goal in 54 OHL games. I think that may be the fastest ever to 20 by a Dman in the OHL.

This is the third straight game he has played centre. He has just been so effective carrying the puck.

Dach has looked great the past week.

Yes, I couldn't understand why the US used their top power play unit in the final 5 minutes of the game.

tsn announcers credited Oliver Kapanen for the first goal but I think it was scored by Konsta Kapanen,

Good period. We were much better at protecting the puck. Very few giveaways unlike most games.

I agree that goalies often stop 2 on 1s. But most 2 on 1s are not like the first and third goal in this game. The model awards those shots 0.1 xG and 0.13 xG because the data predicts that is the average outcome. This average includes plays where the forward fails to collect the pass and also plays where his shot misses the net. The problem here is the calculation of expected goals and trying to use them to measure a goalie's performance. If the Habs play the Oilers and McDavid gets a breakaway his wrist shot from 12 feet out is something like 0.30 xG. If Pezzetta then gets a breakaway and misses the net on his wrist shot that is still worth 0.30xG. If McDavid scores then Allen let in a full goal on a play worth only 0.3xG. Conversely Skinner is credited with saving on a chance worth 0.30xG even though the shot missed the net. In the game against the Kraken, all 3 Habs scored by taking really good shots. The model (I think) does not take into account that the shot by Pitlick was roofed into the net. Nor that Caufield's goal came immediately after a rink wide pass to an uncovered forward (although some models may account for some of this). These facts should be taken into account when we measure Jones' performance.

The first goal was a "low danger" shot. It was a screened shot from the point that isn't an expected goal. He probably should have stopped it but I am not sure when he saw the shot. The next 3 goals were all 2 on 1's. The first was a Caufield goal on a cross ice pass from Suzuki. That shot was 0.1 expected goals. I am pretty sure that Caufield scores more than once if he gets to take that shot 10 times. Probably more like 6 times in 10. The third goal was by Pitlick standing uncovered beside the goal when Jake Evans broke in 2 on 1. He passed it to Pitlick who rifled it into the roof of the net from 6 feet out. Natural Stat Trick lists this as 0.13 xG. Again way too low. I would say most NHL forwards score there 70% of the time. Goal 2 was by Anderson on a 2 on 1. This was 0.09 xG. He got a cross crease pass from Dvorak 12 feet out right in front of the net. Anderson scores more that 10% of the time in that situation. Kovacevic's goal came on a shot judged worth 0.03xG. This is probably reasonably accurate. I agree it would have been great for Jones if he had stopped one of the last 3 goals. But awarding those 3 chances a total of 0.32 expected goals isn't accurate. The model doesn't account for enough variables. That's okay, there is only so much data available. But we can watch the game and see that those three chances don't yield less than a third of a goal.

I don't think you can really blame Martin Jones. The first 3 goals came on gold-plated chances. Even the 4th goal wasn't a bad goal to give up.

29-46-2-4 = 64 pts 8th in the Atlantic 31st in the league 41 goals.

Whoops. Have edited the opening post. All goals Cole Caufield scores in any shootouts will count in his goal total. But only goals scored while a Hab. Thanks for pointing out my errors.

The 17th Annual HabsWorld Regular Season prediction contest.Hall of Fame:2006-2007 Jean won with a prediction of 92 points when the Habs finished the year with 90 pts. If only we could have won that last game.2007-2008 Adirondack Bud exactly predicted our final total of 104 pts.2008-2009 Zowpeb won by predicting a strong start followed by a slower 2nd half ending with 99 points. The Habs finished the season in 8th place with 93 points. On September 22, 2008 Zowpeb predicted "I think we'll see a rough patch just past the mid-year point..." Wow!2009-2010 Joelassister correctly predicted the Habs would finish with 88 points. Honourable mention to kaos who predicted a season record of 39-34-9 (87 pts) while the Habs finished 39-33-10.2010-2011 Chips produced the all time best prediction. His preseason prediction of 44-30-8 for 96 pts 6th in the East, 14th in the NHL was exactly correct in every aspect. That amazing feat will be hard to duplicate. Honourable mentions went to Seb whose excellent prediction of 44-30-8 for 96 pts. 5th in east, 13th in NHL came up just short; and to Peter Puck who also correctly predicted the Habs would finish with 96 points.2011-2012 sakiqc Our fearless leader won with his prediction of 37-34-11 for 85 points. The Habs record was 31-35-16 for 78 points. Honourable mention went to Habsfan who correctly predicted that the Habs would score 212 goals.2012-2013 illWill won by predicting the Habs would finish with a record of 27-16-5 for 59 points. The Habs finished 29-14-5 for 63 points. Honourable mention to PMAC and to former champion Chips who both predicted the Habs to finish with 58 points.2013-2014 Meller93 exactly predicted the Habs final record 46-28-5-3. Honourable mention to thehabbit who correctly predicted the Habs final point total and just missed getting their record exactly right. 2013-2014 nihliz predicted 50-23-5-4 for 109 points. In fact the Habs finished the season 50-22-5-5 for 110 points. Honourable mentions went to nhfarberwho predicted 49-23-4-6 for 108 points and to sakiqc who predicted 51-26-1-4 for 107 points 2015-2016 Chris predicted 40-30-8-4 for 92 points. The injury ridden Habs finished the season 38-38-3-3 for 82 points. 2016-2017 The Habs finished the regular season 47-26-7-2 for 103 points. Using tie breakers: thehabbit had the winning prediction when he predicted 47-25-5-5 = 104 pts and Honourable mentions to kaos and Bluecross. kaos predicted 46-26-6-4 = 102 pts BlueKross predicted 46-24-6-4 =102 pts. 2017-2018 The Habs finished the regular season 29-40-7-6 for 71 points. All the predictions were bad but the least bad was by Dalhabs who won by predicting 42-30-6-4 = 94 pts. 2018-2019 The Habs finished the regular season 44-30-8 for 96 points and 246 goals. The prediction contest came down to the last game of the season, indeed down to the number of goals scored in that game. The winner was BCHabnut predicted 42-27-6-7 (97 points) and crucially 248 goals. Honourable mentions go to: Dalhabs 42-30-6-4 (94 points) and illWill 42-29-7-4 (95 points) 243 goals. 2019-2020 The Habs finished the pandemic season 31-31-9 for 71 points in 71 games. The winner was illWill predicted 39-36-2-5 (85 points). Honourable mention to: tomh009 who predicted 0-0-0-82. Unfortunately for posterity tomh009 also predicted 40-32-10 2021 Season The Habs finished the season 24-21-8-3 for 59 points in the North Division in 56 games. Habsfan84 won by predicting 27-22-3-4 for 61 points. Like every entry his prediction overestimated the Habs final points. Habsfan84 also correctly predicted the Habs would get to the 2nd round but thought they would lose there instead of making the Stanley Cup final. 2022 Season The Montreal Canadiens compiled a regular season record 22-49-7-4 for 55 points. Almost duplicating the points from their cup final year of 2021 but finishing 32nd in the league. DalHabs predicted 31-39-7-5 for a total of 74 points. For the second year in a row all contestants over estimated the Habs performance. --------------------------------------------- DalHabs and illWill are the two repeat winners!!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2022-2023 edition For the last 2 years every contestant has predicted more points for the Habs than the team achieved. This is a contest to predict the Habs regular season performance during the 2022-2023 NHL season. Predicting the Habs 2022-2023 playoff performance is another easier contest. Rules for this season. Predict a) what the Habs regular season record will be: wins-losses-OTL-SOL b) in what place in the Atlantic Division the Habs will finish c) in what place in the league the Habs will finish d) Tiebreaker the total number of goals Cole Caufield will score this season (including goals scored in shootout win or lose) as a Hab. The winner will be based upon the most accurate prediction of the Habs final points. In the event of a tie bonus points will be awarded for getting the number of wins, number of losses, number of OTL's or number of SOL's correct or nearly correct. The tie breakers will be combined in some crazy way to break ties if required. The decision of Peter Puck is final. Contest is void where prohibited. Don't forget to separate overtime losses and shootout losses. Entries due before puck drop on Wednesday October 12 at 7:07pm EST. Good luck.

Thanks - its good to hear from experts. I may be seeing conspiracy theories but it seems like they have agreed with Dach on the deal but that they are waiting for some reason. Now that I have posted this they will probably announce Dach's deal tomorrow.

I'm wondering if there is any potential cap advantage to delaying the new contracts for Dach and Primeau until just after the season begins? Maybe some cap experts know.

I don't think this is correct. My recollection is that MB made an offer to Radulov first and Dallas matched it and Radulov took the Dallas offer.

I have to say that I think it is missing the point to say that Hockey Canada is a cesspool of toxic culture and also placing the blame in the wrong spot. HC has control of these players for something like a month a year. This is not where the problem lies. The root of the problem is in junior (and possibly) minor hockey. Yet no one is calling for the people running these leagues to all be fired.

Its not that simple. Just hearing about something doesn't require someone to report it to the police. Have you reported the allegations you have recently heard about these events to the police? Why not? You presume they already know more than you do of course. The settlements may be bullshit but they do exist. I fully agree that people who commit crimes should be charged and not be allowed to cover it up. People who do bad things should be punished but its not enough that someone has been accused. The fact remains that officials often learn confidential things in the course of their work. They have both a legal and moral obligation to maintain such information in confidence. Of course if they have real evidence of a crime they also have a legal and moral obligation to report it. If someone from HC says that he heard that player X was involved and then it turns out that player X was not, player X will be entitled to sue.

While it is clear that this behaviour is unacceptable, I don't think it is fair to blame people at Hockey Canada for not naming names of accused players. Its fine to say they should come forward and say what they have heard but there are privacy laws they are required to obey. The media is happy to insist that people should name names but has no problem keeping their own sources confidential. People have obligations to respect the privacy of others. If officials at HC do name names, they will be the ones being sued (and possibly facing legal sanctions) not the media. Also, if settlements have been made, these could be jeopardized by people naming the accused.

Okay, I'm going to have to object to the "both" in we are both off. I said the probability all 5 bust was 59% and you say the probability that at least one succeeds is 40.95%. These are essentially (to within 0.0005) the same fact. Regarding your second paragraph, the number of 50-50 prospects went from 1 to 2 between your 2 posts. Anyhow, after the top 15 picks, I'd rather just go for the homerun and pick someone with a high ceiling. Lots of people say this but then complain when the player busts (say Mccarron or Fisher).

Not quite sure you mean this. Having 5 guys each with a 10% chance of making it, means 59% of the time all 5 of them bust. Maybe you are happier because the 5 long shots gives you an 8.5% chance that at least 2 make the NHL?

I predict that MPP will be at the press conference this fall when the Habs announce that Mailloux will be attending training camp.