Bulldogs' Scoreboard Watching

[dlbalr]

<p>With the Bulldogs now fighting for their playoff lives, it's time to pay a little more attention to ye olde scoreboard. The site I do the Habs' odds through (sportsclubstats.com) finally has started updating their AHL section so I'm going to try and do one separately for Hamilton. Below are the relevant matchups to Hamilton's playoff quests. The non bracketed number is the percentage change in the Bulldogs' playoff odds if that team wins, while the bracketed one is the change in Hamilton's projected finish. (I've bolded the teams we want to win for simplicity.)<br>

<br>

Hamilton's odds as of games played through Apr. 3: 99.9%<br><br>

<table cellspacing="0">

<tr>

<td colspan="10" class="b pb5 pr20"><b><font color="#0000FF">Sunday, April 3</font></b></td>

<td> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

</tr>

<tr class="teamFuture">

<td class="pl13 noWrap teamGreen"><b>Toronto</b></td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap greenNum2">(0.19)</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.08)</td>

<td class="pl25 noWrap teamRed">Manitoba</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar h noWrap redNum2">(-0.22)</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.22)</td>

</tr>

<tr class="teamFuture">

<td class="pl13 noWrap teamRed">Texas</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap redNum2">(-0.03)</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.03)</td>

<td class="pl25 noWrap teamGreen"><b>Rockford</b></td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar hg noWrap greenNum2">(0.06)</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.03)</td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td colspan="11" class="h15"> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td colspan="10" class="b pb5 pr20"><font color="#0000FF"><b>Monday, April 4</b></font></td>

<td> </td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

<td> </td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b"><b>Win</b></td>

<td colspan="2" class="ac b pl5"><b>OT</b></td>

</tr>

<tr class="teamFuture">

<td class="pl13 noWrap teamRed">Abbotsford</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap redNum2">(-0.71)</td>

<td class="w20">NC</td>

<td class="ar pl8 h noWrap">(-0.16)</td>

<td class="pl25 noWrap teamGreen"><b>Hamilton</b></td>

<td class="ar pr15 pl8 hg noWrap greenNum1"><b><font color="#FF0000">In</font></b></td>

<td class="ar hg noWrap greenNum2">(0.43)</td>

<td class="ar pl20 hg noWrap"><b><font color="#FF0000">In</font></b></td>

<td class="ar pl8 hg noWrap">(0.43)</td>

</tr>

</table>

[dlbalr]

You know you're in iffy shape for the playoffs when losing a game on Tuesday against Abbotsford would drop the playoff odds by nearly 18%. Fortunately, despite the losses the last 2 days, the odds have actually slightly gone up thanks to some of the out-of-town scores going Hamilton's way.

[kenadian]

Finally some good news..............

[Lammy]

I don't know how good that news might be....the Dogs are still teetering on the edge of the Playoff-Abyss. They need to get some good solid wins in these remaining games.

[dlbalr]

I don't know how good that news might be....the Dogs are still teetering on the edge of the Playoff-Abyss. They need to get some good solid wins in these remaining games.

When I mean slightly gone up, I'm talking 2/10ths of a percentage point. In other words, they better win already.

[kenadian]

I don't really follow the AHL, I mean I'll watch it if it's on but the playoffs confuse me. Is there a cross over, or is it because there's only 7 in the division that one team get's "bumped" by the other conference if they have more points?

[dlbalr]

I don't really follow the AHL, I mean I'll watch it if it's on but the playoffs confuse me. Is there a cross over, or is it because there's only 7 in the division that one team get's "bumped" by the other conference if they have more points?

Yep, it's the same idea as the CFL. If the #5 team in the other division has more points than the #4 in the Bulldogs' one, then the #5 team gets in.

[Lammy]

I don't really follow the AHL, I mean I'll watch it if it's on but the playoffs confuse me. Is there a cross over, or is it because there's only 7 in the division that one team get's "bumped" by the other conference if they have more points?

Yes, the crossover happens because there are 8 teams in the Western Division and only 7 in the North Division. If the 5th place team in the West finishes with more points than the 4th place team in the North, that team from the West bumps out the team from the North and takes their place. This is why it is so crucial for the Bulldogs to finish the season no worse than 3rd in their division. With the current point standings, if they finish in 4th they will not qualify for the playoffs.

[dlbalr]

Every out of town game went Hamilton's way yesterday so the playoff odds jumped up a resounding 13.3% to 88.4%, the highest it has been since the 2-0 win over Rochester a few weeks ago.

[dlbalr]

For the first time in months, the Bulldogs' odds of making the playoffs sit higher than those of the Habs (by 1%). The Marlies' odds plummeted yesterday by 17.5% which explains a lot of the jump in Hamilton's chances.

[dlbalr]

Hamilton needs a single point to clinch a playoff spot now, their first opportunity will come tomorrow against Abbotsford, the team that prevented them from clinching yesterday.