xXx..CK..xXx

On the road with a chance to clinch the playoffs at 0-0 heading into the final frame. Still should be quite an exciting time. Let’s go grab the bull by the horns in the third.

Strong start to the second period. Habs need some target practice on their next off day. Missing the net every chance they get.

Power play was solid in the zone for 2 minutes but no goal. Dobeš is starting the game steady. Anderson usually does well vs the Leafs so look for him to do some damage tonight.

Pezzetta draws a penalty. I have a feeling this power play is going to be good.

Big game boys. Let’s go. Nail Reilly every chance you get. Make Benoit play a little too much, as if he on’t be already. If this was not mentioned, Habs brass failed.

The last few games for the Rangers were very lopsided: April 5: Road vs New Jersey @ 12:30PM EST Loss 0-4 April 7: Home vs Tampa Bay @ 7PM EST Loss 1-5 April 9: Home vs Philadelphia @ 7:30PM EST Loss 5-8 April 10: Road vs Islanders @ 7:30PM EST Win 9-2 April 12: Road vs Carolina @ 3PM EST Loss 3-7 1-4-0 18 Goals For, 26 Goals Against 3.6 GFA, 5.2 GAA

And then there were three… Hopefully in a few hours we will have clinched, 80 games into the season.

I suppose I should also hope that their match won’t matter tomorrow, assuming the Habs win in regulation today against the Leafs.

Last time we faced a team with 5 defensemen, we lost 6-4 v Philly. Dobeš was also in net that game (just a coincidence, not insinuating anything). Still, it’s good to have any advantage we can have. This will be a tough one as it seems to often be against the leafs as of late. My last memory of facing them was being in attendance enjoying a 3-0 lead at the first intermission and “Olé, olé, olé” resonating throughout the bathroom walls during said intermission, only to end up losing 3-7. For the Habs, the only way to clinch today will be via a regulation win. How exciting that would be.

Columbus plays Washington tomorrow again. Hopefully they ice a better team but I won’t hold my breath. The good news is that the game is in Washington, and I would have to assume that at the very least there will be a different goaltender in net.

It’s funny because Hodgson didn’t land a single shot to the face if one actually watches the fight. A lot of swinging and a lot of missing from him. Anyway, to whom it may concern Ridley Greig scored the game winner, so Ottawa (other) wins the poll, as long as you thought it would be him!

Let’s put it this way. Does it look like we’ll be passing Ottawa anymore at this point? We’re closer to them than any other team is close to us. I like our chances as well. Columbus is the sneaky one in my opinion seeing as they have the game in hand. Let’s go Washington tomorrow, and then never again after that.

With Detroit winning in overtime and the Habs losing in regulation, every team in the race is still alive. It makes things interesting for tomorrow at least with three of the teams in action early and the Habs playing the Leafs in the evening. Islanders @ Flyers (12:30PM EST) Capitals @ Blue Jackets (12:30PM EST) Rangers @ Hurricanes (3:00PM EST) Habs @ Leafs (7:00PM EST) Full day of hockey 🏒

I wish there were as well. I’m flying to Europe the day after the regular season ends for one week and would like to be back in the eastern time zone for as many playoff games as possible. I’m going to figure things out in regards to streaming, but the matches will still be in the middle of the night while I’m there. I’m not sure that we know with certainty that the Habs will start on the 19th though. It’s likely because the 19th is a Saturday but only half the series’ will start on Saturday I’d say. Also, if we clinch before our last game, if there really is anyone who needs rest, the Habs will be able to do so. No need to risk injuries as well.

Tough start tonight and the Habs were chasing the game all night long. It was the least disciplined game the Habs have played in a while but mainly because of the timing of their last two penalties. The physical play was welcomed. There was a pinball bounce for an important Ottawa goal, otherwise the Habs were right in the thick of things. I’ve been doing the game threads since our first win against the Panthers on March 30th or just about two weeks ago since I posted that thread the day before on the 29th. The Habs have done their best over that span and placed themselves in the driver’s seat for clinching the playoffs. A lot to be positive about and at least tomorrow will be interesting. Thank you. I appreciate it. It’s been a fun ride. Now I pass the torch to someone else.

Went with Habs in regulation and Captain “Obvious” Suzuki myself.

Current Standings Standings when thread started (Before Games Played on March 25th so technically March 24th or early in the day on March 25th) Record since initial post: MTL: 6-3-0 = 12 PTS (9 GP) CBJ: 4-4-0 = 8 PTS (8 GP) DET: 3-4-1 = 7 PTS (8 GP) NYR: 3-4-1 = 7 PTS (8 GP) NYI: 2-5-1 = 5 PTS (8 GP) Maximum Points: Ottawa: 98 Montreal: 95 Columbus: 89 Rangers: 87 Detroit: 87 Islanders: 87 Playoff Probability for Habs Hockey Reference: 99.4% Money Puck: 99.1% Playoff Status: 99% Habs have the biggest change in the NHL when it comes to their preseason odds versus their current odds: They are also the only team who are “ranked” outside of the top 16 who will likely make the playoffs: They took the spot of the Rangers:

Today is a big day in Habs(World)Land. Should the Canadiens earn a point, they will eliminate every team battling for a spot in the east from playoff contention outside of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Should they earn 2 points via a regulation victory, the 8th and final playoff spot in the eastern conference will have been clinched. Next Matchup Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators - Friday, April 11th @ 7PM EST - Canadian Tire Center Montreal Canadiens Lineup Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovský Kapanen - Newhook - Laine Anderson - Dvorak - Gallagher Pezzetta - Evans - Armia Matheson - Carrier Guhle - Hutson Struble - Savard Montembeault Dobeš Ottawa Senators Lineup Perron - Stützle - Batherson Zetterlund - Cozens - Giroux Greig - Pinto - Amadio Highmore - Gaudette - Cousins Sanderson - Zub Chabot - Jensen Kleven - Matinpalo Ullmark Forsberg Storyline: Tonight we find ourselves with an all Canadian matchup between two playoff bound teams. Ottawa clinched a spot the other day for the first time since 2016-2017 (8 years) despite losing 2-5 to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Habs on the other hand are set to clinch any moment as their odds of doing so for the first time in 4 years are astronomically high at roughly ~99%. Both teams will come into this matchup icing their strongest available lineups, as well as their starting goalies because there is still something to play for in the sense that the Habs find themselves only 3 points behind the Sens for the 1st wildcard spot. While one could argue who may be a better matchup between Washington and Toronto, 9.99 times out of 10, teams will attempt to finish as high as they can in the standings so both teams would like to win this contest. While Brady Tkachuk did skate today, it is still up in the air as to whether or not he will be available to play. He has missed the Senators’ last 5 games where they have amassed a 3-2 record in his absence. While I have the impression that he may miss this game as well, if the Senators did have a playoff-like matchup remaining in the schedule, this one would be it. As a result, knowing Brady Tkachuk, if he is even 80 or 90%, he may decide to lace them up tonight. Whether or not he plays should have somewhat of an impact on the outcome of the game. The Canadiens enter this matchup with the longest winning streak of any team in the league at 6 games. Because they are known to be streaky at times, let’s hope for at least one more win tonight so the team can confidently play the rest of the regular season knowing they have officially clinched. The Habs won their last meeting 6-3 against the Senators after scoring 5 goals in the third period to clinch the victory. Outside of the first two periods of that game, let’s hope for a similar overall result today. Similar to Tkachuk’s impact on the Sens, Nick Suzuki will be a player to look out for on the Habs. He and Hutson have the ability to put the team on their shoulders and create something out of nothing. Led by our captain, let’s hope for our depth to shine as well and for our defensive play and goaltending to remain strong as they have been during this most recent stretch of games. It’s an exciting time to be a Habs fan. First Florida, and now the Sens? Let’s go for the season sweep.

Rangers lose 8-5 to the Flyers. Playoff status has Habs playoff probability at 98% and hockey reference has it at 98.9%. Max Points Ottawa: 98 Montreal: 95 Deroit: 89 Islanders: 89 Columbus: 89 Rangers: 87

I think we’re higher and there are a lot of things the Habs have done well this year in terms of being up there in certain categories with the best teams in the league. With that being said, we’re 15th in goals for, 17th in regulation wins, 23rd in goals against and 20th in goal differential. Us and Minnesota are the only playoff teams with a negative goal differential. I believe 25th is harsh and I’ve been defending our team all season in terms of believing we can make the playoffs, etc. but the stats I pointed out include the entire season. They are not the prettiest and we are in the midst of a 6 game win streak which has only bettered our numbers. Let’s not forget that most people wanted to trade players off our team and “stick to the plan” only one month ago because we weren’t in their minds a top 16 team. Where does that leave the Habs? Probably somewhere around 20th. If the stats they are calculating believe some players are overachieving via shot pct, etc. then they’ve dropped us even further. If we’re talking about current form and the peaks we’ve witnessed from our team this season, we could argue top 10 in the league. If we remember our terrible stretches and look at the season as a whole, somewhere between 16-20 is completely fair even for the most optimistic fan. I believe in our team and will be cheering them on, but the reality is that in the west, we wouldn’t even be in the playoffs right now. Don’t get that twisted though, I completely believe we are a playoff worthy team.

So now I have to buy two jerseys 😩. 48 because yesterday I realized Hutson’s 48 matches my birthday 4/8 (April 8th) and now 93 because it’s the last year we won a cup. Damphouse jersey after this year? #25 Not to mention wait for it….. Cup #25 in ‘25 Might have to finally rearrange that cabinet from 6x4 to 5x5 GHG!

The chart is ordered by goaltending regardless of playoff or non playoff. If one counts from Dallas and moves down, the chart has Montreal goaltending at 15th. 25th is our overall which I can disagree with as well but it’s our scoring chances which make us lower on the power rankings. The Habs are -5.08% which means that our opponents have had 55.08% of the scoring chances (based on how they calculate) of the timeframe these power rankings have been calculated. Recent play is weighted higher, but they take the whole season into consideration. Anyway, the reason Habs are ranked 25th has nothing to do with goaltending. If nothing, our goaltending score has helped, as it is slightly above league average.

An interesting table I found regarding goaltending. It’s weighted to how often the goalies on the team have played. So if Dobes plays 1 out of every 5 games, 20% will be weighted from him and 80% Montembeault. The numbers are just an example. The table is sorted by the column on the right: Take from it what you will, as I’m sure many people might argue things like Winnipeg should be first if it were accurate, etc. However, keep in mind that it represents team goaltending. I think it’s fairly accurate in regards to the Habs. We have middle tier goaltending. On the topic that was being discussed, I agree with the reality that a lot of stats can be manipulated to prove a certain side of the debate. On one hand we have Monty’s goals saved above expected at 5th in the league, but it ignores that he’s played the 4th most games which certainly helps. On the other hand we have Monty at 21st when it comes to goals saved above expected per 60, but it ignores that a few goalies listed above him have played only 5-6-7 games or even less. The real number of where he stands is somewhere in between and closer to around the middle of the league. There’a nothing wrong with that and the main concern with him being a starter would have only been if he’ unable to handle the workload of playing so many games. I believe that so far in April, he’s demonstrated he can. The other thing I will say is that having been at the game, Montembeault was the main thing I thought highly of as I watched outside of Hutson’s nice possession play and feed to Anderson for a near goal. He had a great game. However it’s easy to bring up everything positive about him after a game like that. He’ll likely have worse games ahead, and the comments in that regard will be silent for the day. I wish him the best from here on out. He’s our guy and any goalie that is middle tier to top tier has the ability to steal a game on any given night, or even have a prolonged stretch of great play. Montembeault has a great April. One that’s way beyond his average. Let’s hope it continues for several weeks and everyone will be happy.

No more complaints from me about not having added anything at the deadline if this was the plan for our playoff calibre team 😇 I never had a real complaint about it, but this’ll do.

Habs win 4-1 vs Detroit ✅ Columbus beats Ottawa 5-2 ❌ Nashville beats NYI 7-6 (OT) ✅ Maximum Points Montreal: 95 NYR: 89 Detroit: 89 NYI: 89 Columbus: 89 Record since initial post: MTL: 6-3-0 = 12 PTS (9 GP) DET: 3-3-1 = 7 PTS (7 GP) CBJ: 3-4-0 = 6 PTS (7 GP) NYR: 2-3-1 = 5 PTS (6 GP) NYI: 2-4-1 = 5 PTS (7 GP) Playoff odds higher than STL & Minnesota now. Rest of the teams in the east are crushed.