xXx..CK..xXx

Thank you.

That’s Detroit’s end to the season which I update periodically on the original post. Good news indeed.

With plenty of important games in the rear view mirror, Habs fans get treated with arguably the most significant playoff level game so far this season when the Habs face the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025. One only has to look at the standings in order to realize its significance and the effect that the opposing outcomes can have. Next Matchup: Detroit Red Wings @ Montreal Canadiens - Tuesday, April 8th, 2025 @ 7PM - Centre Bell🔔 Montreal Canadiens Lineup Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovský Laine - Newhook - Kapanen Anderson - Dvorak - Gallagher Pezzetta - Evans - Armia Matheson - Carrier Guhle - Hutson Struble - Xhekaj Montembeault Dobeš Detroit Red Wings Lineup 🔴🪽 Debrincat - Larkin - P. Kane Soderblom - Kasper - Raymond Berggren - Compher - Tarasenko Rasmussen - Motte - Smith Chariot - Seider Edvinsson - Petry Johansson - Holl Talbot Lyon Storyline: The Habs and Red Wings are playing their most important original 6 game since they met in the 1978 playoffs. A year that Montreal would go on to win the Stanley Cup. Okay, more-so from the Habs perspective seeing as just last year Detroit ended their season playing what they believed may be their most important games against the Habs to close out their season. More on that later… The Habs and Red Wings are not only relatively close in the standings, but their teams match up quite similarly on paper. Some high quality skill throughout the lineup. One could argue that the top lines of each team match up quite similarly in that regard. Detroit’s top line has combined for 183 points in 218 games. That’s good enough for .8394 points per game The Habs top line has combined for 198 points in 228 games. Good enough for .8684 points per game. Not too far from one another and Captain Nick Suzuki has really taken a leap this year seeing as he is over 1 ppg. Debrincat and Caufield are also very similar players so there are really dangerous players on both ends. There’s not too much to focus on for this game outside of the obvious. Detroit will be playing for their lives, and the Habs will be looking to secure a playoff spot. The ghosts of the forum have made their way to the Bell Center over the past few weeks and have aided in ensuring that the Habs don’t miss the playoffs for a 4th consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Should the Habs make the playoffs, they will be doing so for the first year since they made the Stanley Cup final in 2021. While Detroit used to be a lock for the playoffs in the 90s and early 2000s, they are attempting to end an 8 season playoff drought. A win for them will be much needed in aid of that quest. Lucas Raymond has said he is excited for the matchup but will Detroit be able to quiet the Montreal faithful? Since I will be in attendance, one thing is for sure, I will be the loudest I have been all season. I am attending on my birthday as well so it will certainly be a memorable match in my books. - May Montembeault have a stellar game - May Hutson be the best defender on the ice - May Suzuki be the best forward on the ice - May the Habs use home ice to their advantage and come out with a victory Is that too much to ask? The Red Wings made a late season push for the playoffs last season by beating the Habs in back to back games 5-4 in overtime both games on April 17th and April 18th, 2024. They ended with 91 points to tie the Capitals for the last playoff spot, but Washington held the tiebreak and Detroit failed to qualify once again. (Photo after Detroit 5-4 shootout win April 18th, 2024) This season, Detroit and Montreal have flip flopped in the standings seemingly every few weeks since January. Montreal has made their run at a crucial time and while Detroit is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games, the Habs find themselves in the midst of a 5 game win streak. Whose armour will break, and will it happen in regulation? It seems like we’ll be in for a tight contest one way or the other, and time will tell. Go Habs Go!

Things are looking good. Updated Standings: MTL: 77 GP - 85 PTS / (27 RW) - Max Points 95 ——————————————————————— DET: 76 GP - 79 PTS / (27 RW) - Max Points 91 NYR: 77 GP - 79 PTS / (32 RW) - Max Points 89 NYI: 76 GP - 78 PTS / (26 RW) - Max Points 90 CBJ: 76 GP - 77 PTS / (24 RW) - Max Points 89 We’re closing in on some other teams’ maximum available points. If we win tomorrow, Detroit’s max will be 89 and we’ll be at 87. Record since initial post: MTL: 5-3-0 = 10 PTS (8 GP) DET: 3-2-1 = 7 PTS (6 GP) NYR: 2-3-1 = 5 PTS (6 GP) CBJ: 2-4-0 = 4 PTS (6 GP) NYI: 2-4-0 = 4 PTS (6 GP) Playoff Probability (Hockey Reference) Montreal: 90.7% Rangers: 5.0% Detroit: 3.3% Islanders: 0.9% Columbus: 0.1% Playoff Probability (Playoff Status) Montreal: 89% Red Wings: 5% Rangers: 3% Islanders: 2% Columbus: <1% Playoff Probability (Money Puck) Montreal: 87.4% Detroit: 5.5% Rangers: 3.5% Islanders: 3.3% Columbus: 0.3%

Now this year: These graphs are organized by the “P-0” column which means that there were 0 days of rest between games, or a back to back. It seems as though “2” is the maximum score in the sense that a team would have picked up an average of 2 points. The Habs were dead last in 2023-2024 with 0.231 points per game in that situation. Our best score was after 3+ days of rest (1.182). This year, Seattle is last, not having achieved a single point in back to backs. The Habs sit at 11th in back to backs and have actually achieved more points (1.143) on average, in back to backs than they have achieved with 1 (1.111) or 2 (0.850) days of rest between games. 3 days+ (1.714) is still their best.

Nice to be up by 1 instead of trailing as per usual heading into the third. I’d like some separation though so let’s aim for the next one. Nashville is outshooting the Habs by a ratio of 2 to 1 but good teams know how to win ugly & when they’re not playing their best.

Dobeš is battling.

Atta boy Laine. 🚨

Thankful to be down only by 1 goal after the first.

Lineups adjusted.

Perhaps Nashville will be fed up with the Stamkos experiment and will look to move him cheap, all the while retaining salary. 🙂 Suzuki Tavares or Suzuki Stamkos I’m fine with either tandem. (This post is half tongue in cheek)

Habs playoff odds are higher than they’ve been in a while. Playoff Probability (Playoff Status) Montreal: 80% New York Rangers: 12% Detroit: 4% Columbus: 2% Islanders: 2% Playoff Probability (Hockey Reference) Montreal: 79.9% New York Rangers: 13% Columbus: 3% Detroit: 2.7% Islanders: 1.6% Playoff Probability (Money Puck) Montreal: 74.2% New York Rangers: 15.% Detroit: 4.7% Islanders: 3.1% Columbus: 2.9% Habs Playoff odds in October: Standings (Habs eliminated Boston & Philly)

8] He has the physical and mental strength of a divine entity and can quite literally carry his team on his back. PS: Habs will do some butt kicking this season!

With the Habs currently on a 4 game win streak, I am happy that I have been enjoying making these game day threads before I can even get some breakfast in the system. Habs Winning Streak: 4 Consecutive Game Day Thread: #5 Days: 8 (Sunday to Sunday including both days) Upcoming Matchup Montreal Canadiens @ Nashville Predators - Sunday, April 6th @ 7:00PM EST - Bridgestone Arena Montreal Canadiens Lineup Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkovský Heineman - Newhook - Laine Evans - Dvorak - Gallagher Pezzetta - Kapanen - Armia Matheson - Carrier Guhle - Hutson Struble - Savard Dobeš Momtembeault Nashville Predators Lineup Bunting - O’Reilly - Evangelista Forsberg - Stamkos - L’Heureux Smith - McCarron - Vrana Bellows - Svechkov - Wood Skjei - Blankenburg Del Gaizo - Barron Englund - Oesterle Saros Annunen Storyline: One can’t think of this matchup without a few key names coming to mind. Firstly, we have the blockbuster trade from years ago where we saw Montreal ship out P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators in exchange for defenseman Shea Weber. A largely controversial and debated trade at the time. Can you spot the difference? That trade will not be discussed in detail here but it was followed up by another blockbuster trade () this year when Montreal traded Justin Barron to the Predators for Alexandre Carrier. Barron Nashville Totals: 39 GP - 4G, 5A = 9P Carrier Montreal Totals: 45 GP - 2G, 14A = 16P Finally, (there is also McCarron) who can forget having longtime Nashville Predator Alex Radulov as part of the Montreal Canadiens lineup? An exciting player who many wish would have been (along with Markov) resigned by the Habs’ former regime. Now, enough with the blasts from the past, and on to today’s game. The Montreal Canadiens and Nashville Predators enter the contest having experienced almost polar opposite seasons. The Predators and Habs both made fairly significant additions into their lineups last off season. While the Canadiens added Patrick Laine, the Predators acquired what most people figured would be a sure thing in Steven Stamkos. While things haven’t exactly been perfect for Laine in the hockey crazed town of Montreal, the overall team environment and situation has been much worse for Steven Stamkos and the Nashville Predators. While Montreal is fighting for a playoff spot, the Nashville Predators have terribly underachieved this season and have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Laine Totals: 46 GP - 19G, 13A = 32P (19 PPP) Stamkos Totals: 76 GP - 24G, 22A = 46P (18 PPP) While Laine has enjoyed a .696 point per game pace, Stamkos sits at a .605 point per game pace over the season. Let’s see how much these two players will have an impact on today’s game. My prediction is that Laine will have the greater impact, so expect some power play goals this evening. Montreal needs to enter the Bridgestone arena and play their own game. Continue to play with the intensity that they brought at times during their recent games at home. While Nashville has a terrible record this year, they are much better at home. While they are 9-25-5 on the road this season, they actually hold a winning (in regulation) record at home at 18-16-3. While the Habs are 21-12-5 at home, their record on the road is 16-18-4. In other words, we can’t exactly take things lightly this evening. Nashville does have some talent up front with players like Forsberg, O’Reilly and the aforementioned Stamkos always ready to make a difference regardless of their place in the standings. Carrier will have some money on the board for this one. So hopefully Nick Suzuki and the Habs can pull this one out, and Carrier can take the team out for a nice dinner out over the next coming days. Playoff odds vs beginning of season: Montreal’s odds are now closer to 80% so I will update the 58.7% image when they update.

Rangers 0 - 4 New Jersey ✅ Columbus 0 - 5 Leafs ✅ Montreal 3 - 2 Philadelphia ✅ Tickets purchased for Habs vs. Detroit ✅ It was a good day. Updated Standings: MTL: 76 GP - 83 PTS / (27 RW) - Max Points 95 ——————————————————————— NYR: 76 GP - 79 PTS / (32 RW) - Max Points 91 DET: 75 GP - 77 PTS / (27 RW) - Max Points 91 CBJ: 75 GP - 77 PTS / (24 RW) - Max Points 91 NYI: 75 GP - 76 PTS / (26 RW) - Max Points 90 Record since initial post: MTL: 4-3-0 = 8 PTS (7 GP) NYR: 2-2-1 = 5 PTS (5 GP) DET: 2-2-1 = 5 PTS (5 GP) CBJ: 2-3-0 = 4 PTS (5 GP) NYI: 1-4-0 = 2 PTS (5 GP) After a dismal 0-3 start the Habs are streaking with 4 wins in a row. Form Montreal: L/L/L/W/W/W/W Rangers: L/OTL/W/W/L Detroit: L/L/W/OTL/W Columbus: W/L/W/L/L Islanders: L/L/L/L/W

Poll Results: Michkov: 0g 0a -2 3 shots 0 hits = 0.5 points Hutson: 1g 0a +1 1 shot 0 hits = 3 points Glad I voted Hutson Votes were 3-2 for Michkov for most of the night but now show 3-3.

What a beauty Lane 🚨

Gally ❤️🚨

Evans bringing some physicality with Anderson out. The Habs know they can score against Philly so we just have to keep the defense solid. We’re better today in that area than our last game against the Flyers. Michkov and Hutson both have no relevant stats so far. Hutson’s been slightly more noticeable but Michkov drew a 4 minute power play.

Ottawa beat Florida 3-0 and are now only 4 points behind them for the 3rd spot in the Atlantic division. The same distance that Columbus is behind the Habs. It would be funny for Toronto to do all this work to finish first in the division, only to face the (former finalist -> cup champ) wildcard Panthers and a returning Tkachuk in round 1. 🙏

That’s what I’ve thought as well. He also does bring a small physicality element that the team loses with Xhekaj out of the lineup so that may be a small part of it. I say small because it hasn’t been as apparent as we get with Xhekaj, but Pezzetta led the game with 7 hits against Boston. More than Zadorov.

I’m also apprehensive of sending unknowns into the lineup next year. Good teams have sure things in their lineups. Demidov seems like a sure thing (Caufield felt the same to me) but Kapanen raises question marks for me, despite his great season in the SHL. Beck is even more of a question mark to me, personally. If we’re talking Dvorak versus these rookies’ ceilings, I am certain they take the cake. Will they exceed the 30-35 points Dvorak brings as well as the other intangibles in their first year of action? I’m not so convinced. I do however wish them both the best. I agree that if we get someone for the second center position, this becomes less of an issue. I did like our depth within the starting 12 this year though.

Reinbacher can start the season as a third pair and then evolve from there, should he earn it. He doesn’t have to start in the top 4 even if he is expected to be in that position eventually. Perhaps he even does earn a top 4 spot. We have Hutson who made the team, as an example, so not everyone will be a Mete. We can make assumptions based on what we’ve seen and even very good ones, but no one knows where Reinbacher and Mailloux will be development wise in 7 months from now. Reinbacher was also a 5th overall pick versus Mete being 100th overall, and they’ve already waited longer with Reinbacher than they did with Mete by a year. Not exactly apples to apples. — @HabsFan4eternity Those were posts I made on February 8th and 9th and people were arguing against Reinbacher being ready to play next year. As you can see, I don’t have Xhekaj or Struble included. With that being said, more recently I argued that leaving Xhekaj out of the lineup was not necessarily an easy decision when we played with 7D because of the physical element he brings. (Could be part of the reason Pezzetta is in the lineup with Xhekaj out) So you’re not wrong in believing that there’s an element he brings to the table that fans love and teammates respect. The main thing is that there are perhaps better options, rather than it being a specific knock on him. The main reason I included both Mailloux and Reinbacher when I made that post in February was because they are both right handed. If Xhekaj were right handed, I would have him above Mailloux at the moment for instance. At the time we were struggling with players playing on their off side. If Hutson continues to excel, this may not be as important. Guhle - Hutson Matheson - Carrier Struble (Xhekjaj) - Reinbacher could be the lineup without the RD issue. I do believe Struble is currently higher on the depth chart than Xhekaj but hard work and say, an injury could have Xhekaj back as a regular in the lineup at any time.

Looking at the rosters, another thing I didn’t mention in the original post was the Cam York fiasco. Last game against the Habs, he was stapled to the bench for the entire game without playing a shift. As a result, the Flyers beat us with only 5 active defensemen. York should be somewhat of a regular today. However, I still like our chances due to skill level, situation in the standings, as well as the reality that we are playing at home. Let’s go Habs!

Devils are winning 2-0 after the second period and the Rangers haven’t won a game all season after being down by multiple goals within a game. Columbus plays the Leafs later. I’m not sure I can go as far as to say “Go Leafs Go” but I suppose we are rooting for them today. Hopefully they can return the favor we did for our weak little brother when we defeated the Panthers back to back and helped them on their quest to finish first in the division.