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Im looking at the trade this way. (And yes i realize its all one trade, but this is just how i evaluate it). 1) 3rd overall for caufield. 2) mailloux and a pick in the 20s for Zegras. Part 1 i absolutely would not do.. give me the guy who has already shown signs of being a stud and is signed long term at fair value. Part 2) i would do but im hesitant as Zegras had an awful season, and there is a real chance hes just a flashy guy who gets 60 points and cant play without the puck. Id do but its not a slam dunk. I consider this somewher in between what we gave up to get dach and newhook. I think dach is much better than zegras. Zegras is better than Newhook but its not that big when you consider 2 way play. To me the loss in part 1 is bigger than the gain in part 2.

Right. You wouldn't pick Aatos Koivu because you expect him to be a clone of Saku. He is his own player, and he'll be picked on his own merits. The only significant thing you get from that relationship is that you might have a better idea of the player's attitude or mental processes, based on how well you know his family members. But that's just another data point, not anything more.

3-ish and 5-ish ... that's maybe 80% probability that the drafted player will play at least 100 games. Or 65% that both of them will play 100 games. Probability of two impact players is considerably lower. Mailloux-plus for 80% probability of 100+ NHL games? I would generally always take the prospect that has played at least a year since the draft, as the ceiling and floor are much more clear than for an 18yo.