Paradis' Picks

[KoZed]

The first 2005 Mock Draft article on HW is up. Read it here: http://www.habsworld.net/article.php?id=823

[Edited on 2005-7-26 by puck7x]

[shortcat1]

Amen, Brother!!!

Preach it! Preach it from the mountain tops!!

Announce the good news!!!

Anze's on the way!!!!

[beckham]

When a flashy winger from a lesser hockey nation was all the rage. Kostitsyn.:nono:.

How does Johnson fill a need in Anaheim? Look at their depth chart, they are loaded with good young defensive prospects with very little up front.

If you go to all the trouble to write and article, at least do a little research.

[KoZed]

Originally posted by beckham

When a flashy winger from a lesser hockey nation was all the rage. Kostitsyn.:nono:.

How does Johnson fill a need in Anaheim? Look at their depth chart, they are loaded with good young defensive prospects with very little up front.

If you go to all the trouble to write and article, at least do a little research.

Johnson fits the need of Anaheim to have a full-fledge #1 defenseman. Smid & Popovis is the best they got so far, and it just doesnt cut it.

Nothing up-front? Hmmm... Chistov, Lupul, Perry, Getzlaf, Smirnov, Holmqvist, Kunitz, Brent. etc. They're way better off up front than on defense.

If you go through all the trouble to complain about an article, at least make sure you know what you're talking about.

[Edited on 26-7-2005 by ap79]

[beckham]

Ducks have Ozolinsch, Salei, Skoula, Vishnevski on their parent roster, Kurtis Foster, Tomas Malec, Aaron Rome, Popovic, Shane O'Brian in the AHL, one of the best defensmen in Russia in Korsunov, plus they used their first three picks in the last draft on Smid, Jordan Smith and Kyle Klubertanz.

Smirnov had about 15 points all season in the AHL, and Chistov didn't do much better. Lupul is the only bona fide offensive player they have at the moment until Getzlaf and Perry are ready.

[beckham]

from the 2002 draft in Sweden. Johannsen split last season between the AHL and the ECHL. He had something like 7 points in 40 AHL games as a 20 year old.

[PB]

I appreciate the big undertaking of this article and the quick access to paradise it gave me from my chair. Thanks ap 79

I am no beckman as you can see, poor little beckman felt he was lead astray by your article,...should recover eventually, hopefully

[beckham]

He asked for comments... I would worry about Kopitar. Robert Nilson who was a first rounder a couple of years back, played most of his draft year in the SEL and had 20 odd points. Same with the Sedin twins. Kopitar played 15 SEL games and had 0 points in his draft year. His numbers are similar to Marcus Nilsson, another first rounder, who never managed to reach 40 points in the NHL.

[PB]

..and great comments they sure can be,..cheers

[beckham]

I could see Minnesota taking a goaltender. They just have Duane Roleson and Manny Fernandez. Price or Rask could slip into the top 5.

[bombTHEice]

Great first article Alex, good job! :/)

Originally posted by beckham

Ducks have Ozolinsch, Salei, Skoula, Vishnevski on their parent roster, Kurtis Foster, Tomas Malec, Aaron Rome, Popovic, Shane O'Brian in the AHL, one of the best defensmen in Russia in Korsunov, plus they used their first three picks in the last draft on Smid, Jordan Smith and Kyle Klubertanz.

Smirnov had about 15 points all season in the AHL, and Chistov didn't do much better. Lupul is the only bona fide offensive player they have at the moment until Getzlaf and Perry are ready.

Wow what a scary defence ... Ozolinsh *lol* ... Salei *rofl* ... Skoula *bust^2* ...

BTW. Ozolinsh is a UFA and won't likely be back with the Ducks.

The only real good defence prospect they have is Ladislav Smid ... Johnson would be the perfect fit for them, he can be a potential franchise d-man. Do they have such a guy? No!

Originally posted by beckham

He asked for comments... I would worry about Kopitar. Robert Nilson who was a first rounder a couple of years back, played most of his draft year in the SEL and had 20 odd points. Same with the Sedin twins. Kopitar played 15 SEL games and had 0 points in his draft year. His numbers are similar to Marcus Nilsson, another first rounder, who never managed to reach 40 points in the NHL.

Kopitar played for the junior team (can be compared to the CHL) the whole season, where he dominated (28 goals and 49 points in 30 games). Then he played for a couple of games at the big club and hadn't any problem there too.

[Edited on 26-7-05 by HABS Fan Nr.1]

[KoZed]

I grew up in St. Isadore, a little bit southwest of Hawkesbury, Ontario. My late father, Sylvain, played there with Bob Hartley on men's league teams. They were good friends. I met Bob at my father's funeral two years ago. When Bob won the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2001, my dad would laugh and say; "That's my old Junior B goalie." Bob asked me to be one of the guests of honor at his Aug. 3 charity golf tournament in Hawkesbury. Needless to say, I'm really looking forward to that and I'm very honored.

http://www.nhl.com/futures/2005draft/pouliot_blog.html

So Clarke's a family-friend of Bobby Ryan and Hartley's a family friend of Pouliot. Makes you wonder if Atlanta will try to move up to pick Pouliot too. Atlanta's picking 8th.

1- PIT: Crosby

2- ANA: Johnson

3- ATL (via CAR): Pouliot

4- MIN: Ryan

5- MTL: Kopitar

6- CBS: Brulé

7- CHI: Skille

8- CAR (via ATL): Staal

[KoZed]

Originally posted by HABS Fan Nr.1

Great first article Alex, good job! :/)

Originally posted by beckham

Ducks have Ozolinsch, Salei, Skoula, Vishnevski on their parent roster, Kurtis Foster, Tomas Malec, Aaron Rome, Popovic, Shane O'Brian in the AHL, one of the best defensmen in Russia in Korsunov, plus they used their first three picks in the last draft on Smid, Jordan Smith and Kyle Klubertanz.

Smirnov had about 15 points all season in the AHL, and Chistov didn't do much better. Lupul is the only bona fide offensive player they have at the moment until Getzlaf and Perry are ready.

Wow what a scary defence ... Ozolinsh *lol* ... Salei *rofl* ... Skoula *bust^2* ...

BTW. Ozolinsh is a UFA and won't likely be back with the Ducks.

The only real good defence prospect they have is Ladislav Smid ... Johnson would be the perfect fit for them, he can be a potential franchise d-man. Do they have such a guy? No!

Right on HFN1. Depth (what the Ducks have) and quality (what the Ducks dont have) is what makes picking Johnson a "Need" pick. They have nobody in their system that can be labelled a full-fledge #1 defenseman. Even Smid is drawing some question marks about his potential.

[beckham]

Ask any GM in the league if they would find a spot for Ruslan Salei on their team. He is one of the most respected defensemen in the league. Skoula has a world of potential. Vishnevski is one of the best young defensemen around. Kurtis Foster has definitely ready for the NHL, Malec has played a fair bit with the Ducks, Popovic and Rome are both good prospects. Korsunov will be a top 4 NHL defenseman as soon as he comes over. Smid, Smith and Klubertanz all have a good shot of playing in the league.

Maybe you guys can't appreciate prospects outside of Montreal's, which you completely overrate, but the Ducks have as good a young defense coming along as anyone in the league. They may take Johnson as the best player available, but certainly not to "fill a need".

[beckham]

Kopitar played 15 games in the elite league and scored 0 points. He was -2. Even Nick Bergfors his teammate scored better at both the junior and senior level. Bergfors played a lot more games with the parent team as well. The only difference between them is that Kopitar is a few inches taller. Bergfors is rated as a late first rounder on most boards, but the SEL team they both play for thought he deserved to be called up before Kopitar. To me it is a situation that is scarily reminsicent of Kostitsyn, and I think that fact alone will make the Habs pass him over. Blake Wheeler all over again.

[KoZed]

Originally posted by beckham

Ask any GM in the league if they would find a spot for Ruslan Salei on their team. He is one of the most respected defensemen in the league. Skoula has a world of potential. Vishnevski is one of the best young defensemen around. Kurtis Foster has definitely ready for the NHL, Malec has played a fair bit with the Ducks, Popovic and Rome are both good prospects. Korsunov will be a top 4 NHL defenseman as soon as he comes over. Smid, Smith and Klubertanz all have a good shot of playing in the league.

Maybe you guys can't appreciate prospects outside of Montreal's, which you completely overrate, but the Ducks have as good a young defense coming along as anyone in the league. They may take Johnson as the best player available, but certainly not to "fill a need".

Again, you mistake depth for quality. Seems like your talent's mesuring stick is skewed. None of the guys you mention are full-fledged #1 or even #2 defnesemen. They might be valuable, but you dont build a defense around Vishnevski's and Malec's.

Anaheim knows their defense is a need. That's why they reached for Smid last year and picked up more d-men along the way. They have a chance to get exactly what they want & need in Johnson.

[Edited on 26-7-2005 by ap79]

[beckham]

Johnson is 18. He is at least 5 years away from being a "number 1 or number 2 defenseman", more probably about 7 years. Look at Komisarek, he is 23 and has trouble cracking the top 4.

Do you think that Burke is looking at his roster and saying "Uh, oh, we don't have a clear cut #1 defenseman here, lets pick one up in the entry draft". Burke will be gone by the time that Johnson is a dominant NHL defenseman.

[Edited on 2005/7/26 by beckham]

[KoZed]

Originally posted by beckham

Johnson is 18. He is at least 5 years away from being a "number 1 or number 2 defenseman", more probably about 7 years. Look at Komisarek, he is 23 and has trouble cracking the top 4.

Do you think that Burke is looking at his roster and saying "Uh, oh, we don't have a clear cut #1 defenseman here, lets pick one up in the entry draft". Burke will be 70 years old by the time that Johnson is a dominant NHL defenseman.

This is a poor argument, even from you... Forget it, its not even an arguement, it actually makes no sense whatsoever.

The whole time we were talking about Anaheim not having a #1 D-man IN THEIR SYSTEM and you start talking about immediate NHL help.

We're talking about prospects, talent base...

Beside, your whole reasoning is flawed because your premises are wrong. So because a team has a weakness at a certain position IN THEIR TALENT BASE they won't pick the player who fits it most because he won't be able to jump in the NHL right off the draft?

No wonder why you think Kostitsyn is a bust. You dont understand that drafting is about middle-to-long term projections. GM's pick on what they foresee 5 or 6 years down the road, if not further than that. Not October of the same year. They pick players of 18 yrs old thinking of how they'll be once they peak at 25, 26 yrs old. Not what they'll be at 20.

Its not that hard to understand, is it?

[beckham]

No, I think Kostitsyn was a lousy pick because he hasn't done squat for the past 3 seasons. A single point in the RSL in a dozen games over 2 years. I can find dozens of Russian players who did better than that by the time they were 19. Marcel Hossa turned pro when he was just a couple of months older than Kostitsyn. He had 17 goals in the AHL in just 50 games, then another 3 in 10 NHL games. Kostitsyn is a smaller version of Hossa, basically. They both have good basic skills, but are as dumb as posts, and are never going to make their coach truly happy.

[Dalhabs]

last season the SEL could be compared with a GOOD AHL since it was overflooded by NHL-stars and that most of the players in SEL is better than than the players in AHL. If a young 17-18 year old didnt make it in the SEL this last season its no suprise. Hell even the swedish div1 was better than an average AHL last year.

btw. Marcus Nilson is a player I would love to have in montreal. He is a potential 0.5 points per game player with loads of grit and will. He would replace every 3rd line rw we have easily so dont bash on him...

[beckham]

Not bashing Nilson, but is that what you hope for with a #5 overall pick in the draft? I'm not pretending to be Nostradamus or anything, but why take a chance when there are players available that you can pretty well count on the be solid NHLers?

From my perspective, if they are going to gamble, then trade that pick to a team that has a late first round pick and an early second round pick. That way they get two chances to get lucky with their picks. Honestly, once you get past Crosby, Johnson, and (possibly) Ryan, you have just as much chance to get a good player at 25 or 35 as you do at 5.

[KoZed]

Originally posted by beckham

Not bashing Nilson, but is that what you hope for with a #5 overall pick in the draft? I'm not pretending to be Nostradamus or anything, but why take a chance when there are players available that you can pretty well count on the be solid NHLers?

From my perspective, if they are going to gamble, then trade that pick to a team that has a late first round pick and an early second round pick. That way they get two chances to get lucky with their picks. Honestly, once you get past Crosby, Johnson, and (possibly) Ryan, you have just as much chance to get a good player at 25 or 35 as you do at 5.

Not true

From 1 to 6 you get a chance to pick a franchise player.

From 7 to about 18 you get a chance to pick a good & safe but low reward player or a high risk/high reward.

After the 18th pick, its mostly very iffy players or raw deals.

The 5th overall pick is a blessing for the Habs. Trading down to have a crack at guys who aren't even as good as our own depth prospects is just a dumb idea.

[beckham]

That is silly, to draw some sort of arbitrary line and say these guys are "franchise players", these guys are.....

I'm assuming you are including Pouliot and Brule in your "franchise" category. Compare Pouliot to Petr Taticek, Brule to Scotty Upshall. They are identical at the same age. I would hardly call Taticek and Upshall "franchise" players.

[KoZed]

Originally posted by beckham

That is silly, to draw some sort of arbitrary line and say these guys are "franchise players", these guys are.....

Funny you complain about "arbitrary". Its exactly what you do when you say Kostitsyn is dumb and will never make his coach happy. At least I'm basing my "arbitrary line" on numerous reports from serious sources whose job is to follow the business closely.

I'm assuming you are including Pouliot and Brule in your "franchise" category. Compare Pouliot to Petr Taticek, Brule to Scotty Upshall. They are identical at the same age. I would hardly call Taticek and Upshall "franchise" players.

And you talk to me about "arbitrary lines". You're the first and only one I've seen compare Pouliot to Taticek. Serious observers compare him to a Lecavalier type. Brulé's compared to a Peca.

You think you know better than most experts in the scouting field? Sorry to burst your bubble, buddy, but you dont know better. Welcome to reality.

[Edited on 27-7-2005 by ap79]

[beckham]

Pouliot averaged a point per game (as an 18 year old) in the OHL. So did Taticek. They are about the same size and play a similar style. Lecavalier averaged a point a game in junior when he was 15, never mind 18. Brule and Peca, sure if you want. Peca is not, and never will be a "franchise" player. He is in the same boat as Upshall, (generally injured). Basically you're looking at Saku Koivu with less speed and skill. That is not a franchise player.

Lecavalier averaged 2 points per game in his final junior season, and he was 17 at the time.

[Edited on 2005/7/27 by beckham]