bobby

Criteria is that they must qualify as NHL rookies next season. 1. Jaroslav Halak - Jaro is going to give the first player drafted in 2003, Marc-Andre Fleury, a good run as the top goaltender taken that year. Halak has duplicated or bettered Fleury's accomplishments at various levels since they were drafted, but he has done so a year or two later. But considering that he is half a year younger and had to adapt to a foreign culture along the way, that is expected. Fleury is a bit bigger, and more athletic, but Halak is stronger mentally. 2. Alexei Emelin - Emelin is one of only a handful of teenagers to crack the defense of the Russian National team over the past few years. Volchenkov, Visnevski, Kalinen, and Markov are the others. That is pretty good company in terms of NHL potential. 3. Pavel Valentenko - Has followed in the footsteps of Emelin in terms of his accomplishments in his home country. Style is ideally suited to Canadiens current needs, as a big physical left side defender with some offensive potential. Like Emelin, he excelled against Canada in the Gold Medal game at the WJC, and was named to the preliminary roster for the Senior National team before having to withdraw due to injury. 4. Matt D'Agostini - Fiesty winger is having one of the best seasons of any AHL rookie, including several first round draft picks from 2004 and 2005. He is also one of the youngest players in the league. Eerily similar to current habs Chris Higgins in size, style, and looks, although he is a right handed shot. Rookie AHL production is actually ahead of Higgins to this point. 5. Carey Price - Has all the tools to be a franchise netminder. Mental focus appears to have wavered over his junior career. Had a great U20 WJC, but was shaky as the U18 netminder. Had some brilliant stretches as a WHL netminder, and some mediocre ones. Was unable to carry his team in the playoffs. 6. Ryan White - Rated as a first round talent for the 2006 draft by most scouting services and has justified that respect in his post draft season. Skilled grinder in the style of former WHL star and current NHL star Ryan Smyth. Versatile enough to play on any of the four lines as a pro. 7. Kyle Chipchura - Throwback type of player who plays a great team game but lacks exceptional physical skills. Biggest concern is his skating, which may or may not develop to an acceptable NHL level. The labors of Guillaume Latendresse show what Chipchura will have to face at the next level, and he doesn't have the same hands or strength to compensate. 8. Ben Maxwell - Terrific natural talent, probably the best of any prospect in the organization, but lacking in physical strength. Not a soft player, but somewhat laid back and not as competitive as you would like. 9. Mathieu Carle - Very similar as a defenseman, to Maxwell as a forward. All the natural talent in the world, but slightly undersized and somewhat passive in his play. 10. Sergei Kostitsyn - Infectious enthusiasm for the game and pretty good all round talent have allowed him to dominate at the junior level in his final season of eligibility. He faces somewhat of a logjam in the organization as a small, skilled, right winger, however.

It is just human nature to tell people what they want to hear. Same thing with Kovalev. Kovy was talking to a Russian journalist, and the questions dealt with comparing Montreal (North America/NHL) with Moscow (Russia/RSL). Player emphasizes the advantages of the locale of the reporter, without bringing up the disadvantages. Not that there aren't significant advantages to living and working in San Jose vs. Montreal. But you can hardly blame Craig Rivet for that fact. I'm amazed at how important a player he has become for the Sharks, however. They were one of the top teams in the NHL before he got there, and you can make a pretty good case that Rivet has been their best player since the trade.

The best case scenario for the Habs in the playoffs is for San Jose to be eliminated in the first round along with the three playoff teams who had more regular season points than they did. Buffalo, Detroit, Anaheim, I think. That would leave Montreal with the #19 pick of the draft. Pretty sure that is the best it can be. Anywhere from there to #30 overall if the Sharks win the Cup.

Haven't seen Skoula play a lot, but he seems like the type of player Gainey would sign if he can't sign Souray. Or perhaps Vitali Vishnevsky. There isn't a lot of options out there, and with the salary cap increasing, there is going to be competition for the free agent players. Ramzi Abid is another big LW with local roots who might come to Montreal at a reasoable price. Taylor Pyatt would be a good signing, but Vancouver will probably do everything to hang onto him since he seems to work well with the Sedins. Danius Zubrus had some good things to say about Montreal, and he certainly fits the profile of what they need up front. Viktor Kozlov might be another. Hard to say if Kostitsyn won a spot, he had about 10 good games out of the 22 he played and seemed to disappear at the end of the season. I think he was very close to being a healthy scratch in the last couple of games. I really think that Matt D'Agostini could pass him in training camp this fall. D'Ago has more than twice the points that Kostitsyn scored as an AHL rookie, already this year. He has a lot more competitive drive than Kostitsyn does. So does Ryan White who isn't far behind.

Maybe he went home to see his family. I know when he went back to Belarus a few months back he wanted to stay for a lot longer than he did.

Can't be bothered to go back and check, but I know that Jonathan Bernier signed last summer prior to training camp. Flames have signed Leyland Irving already from the 2006 draft as well. I suspect it happens quite often.

Looking ahead, position by position - Goal - Looks very likely that the Habs would open next season with Cristobal Huet and Jaroslav Halak in the nets. David Aebisher will not be resigned. Yann Danis will probably be resigned at a reduced salary since I don't think he has any better options. Carey Price is on board and will get every chance to show his stuff in Hamilton. I'm not a Huet fan, I've never thought he was a number one goaltender. I could see Halak gradually edging him out over the season. Defense - Priority for Bob Gainey is to get his top pairing of Andrei Markov and Mike Komisarek locked up for a few years. They are capable of playing 25 minutes a game in all situations. I say Markov gets a 3 year deal at around 15 million, Komisarek 3 years at about half that much. Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon are signed for the next two seasons. Ideally they will be pushed back to third pairing minutes by a couple of younger players. Sheldon Souray is gone, I think. The most likely candidate to replace him in my view is free agent Martin Skoula. Skoula is still just 27 and a big left side defender with some offensive skill. Mark Streit is signed for next season, and Josh Gorges will get another one year deal in all probablility. Mathieu Biron will be signed to a two year deal I think, and given an opportunity to resume his NHL career. A pairing of former 1998 first round draft picks, Biron and Skoula has some merit. Forward - I see a top line of Michael Ryder, Tomas Plekanec, and Chris Higgins next season despite all the free agent names being thrown about. Plekanec deserves an opportunity to play top line minutes. He isn't the sexy pick as a number one center, but he is a solid two way pivot who can create offense. Not much point having a 90 point player at the position if he is also -30 at even strength. Like it or not, Alexei Kovalev and Sergei Samsonov will be back next year. The situation is such that both the team and the players have to make the best of the situation. Saku Koivu will be charged with making the line work. I also think that Radek Bonk will return at a reduced salary. Bonk seems content in Montreal, and is a solid third line center. Steve Begin figure to be one of his linemates, along with either Guillaume Latendresse or Maxim Lapierre. I could see the Habs signing free agent Alexandre Giroux, a big LW with a decent scoring touch who has been a solid AHL player for a few seasons. Alex Perezhogin will likely return as a utility forward to round out the four lines. If Andre Kostitsyn has a strong camp, he will force his way into the mix, if he can't dislodge a regular, he will likely be traded. Matt D'Agostini could make a push as well, he can be an energy winger who is capable of playing on an offensive line.

I don't think any of the three has first line potential. None of them put up eye popping numbers at any level so far in their career. Grabovski and Kostitsyn look good on the ice, but neither has been that productive. I think that Perezhogin can make the transition to being a two way left winger similar to Chris Higgins. At least that is what he will have to do if he remains in Montreal. I realize it is a minority opinion here, but I just don't see Andrei Kostitsyn breaking out in a big way at the NHL level. He doesn't have the spark and isn't flexible enough to adapt his style to the opportunities that occur. There aren't any obvious first line candidates in the system, but players like Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Ryan White, and Ben Maxwell have all exceeded expectations thus far in their development. They are more versatile as well. Capable of fitting in on the third or fourth line and working their way up.

Surprised to see that Alex Grant and Corey Tropp were not included on the Central Scouting Combine list. Hopefully that means they will be available in later rounds.

But if they want to make a deal to improve the team, they can't do it using worthless players. There are two sides in any deal, and in order to acquire a quality player they will have to give up the same. I'm not saying that Grabovski or Kostitsyn don't have talent or potential, just that they have it at a position where the Habs have an excess at the moment. There is no doubt the team has a lot more forwards who prefer to play RW than LW, both on the parent team and in the organization. Trading a RW and/or right handed C for a LW makes the most sense. In my view, Grabovski, Kostitsyn, and Perezhogin are the three most likely candidates because they have trade value and there are younger players coming along who can replace them in the system.

The other way to look at it, though, is that Grabovski is in his fifth or sixth pro season. I think he played a couple of years in the Belarussian Senior League, three years in the RSL, and now the AHL/NHL. He has had a lot of international touranment experience as well. Given his size, his style, and his age, I can't see much untapped potential there. There are dozens of free agent players in Europe who are more or less the same as Grabovski. Graduating NCAA players as well. I still think that when it all shakes out Perezhogin will play ahead of Grabovski and Kostitsyn. Alex had a tough year, but he has done more in the past and is more of a pure sniper, which is what the team needs most.

Teams sign entry level players to 3 year contracts generally, because that is the amount of time they think it will take to determine the players future. Chipchura just completed his first season, and gave no reason for the team to give up on him as yet. The prospects who will be moved are the ones on the third year of their contract. Grabovski signed a two year deal, I think, and is a couple of years older than most entry level players. He could be moved since he is 23 years old and wasn't better than younger players such as Lapierre, Kostitsyn, Chipchura and D'Agostini in the AHL. The decision they have to make is with their RW prospects. Kovalev and Ryder have the top two spots locked up for the forseeable future. The remaining two RW come from a group that includes Latendresse, Perezhogin, A. Kostitsyn, S. Kostitsyn, Milroy, Ferland, D'Agostini, Stewart, Mikus, Aubin and Lapierre, who looks better suited to play the wing than centre. J.T. Wyman and Ryan White will join the crowd next season. Latendresse is going nowhere, obviously, except to LW until a spot opens up perhaps. Same for Lapierre. He will play C as long as needed and do a good job there. Milroy and Ferland have no real trade value and are valuable as bubble players who set a good example in the AHL for younger prospects and can fill in at the NHL level in an emergency. D'Agostini, Aubin, Stewart, all first year pros and playing well at their level. S. Kostitsyn and Mikus likely to turn pro by next fall. Those players will all get their 3 years to show what they can do. That leaves Perezhogin, A. Kostitsyn, and Grabovski who plays RW and C. Two of those players, and possibly all three will be dealt, I think.

I think the USHL players in this year's draft pool are really underrated in comparison to players from other junior leagues and the USNTDP. The U is getting better every year, and some players who have played in tournaments against CHL players think there is very little difference in the quality of play. Tristen Llewellyn who has been to several tournaments and played against various CHL players, says it is faster than any Canadian Junior League. The lack of attention paid to the USHL will be even more pronounced in the coming weeks with the U18 World Championship and the CHL playoffs happening. They only have a very short playoff series of their own, about a dozen games max for the final teams. So, if an NHL team is looking for steals in the upcoming draft, that is the place to be.

Well, it is nearly 2 years since Price was drafted, and about 2 weeks since his season ended, so it obviously wasn't a cut and dried thing.

Valentenko is injured and left the Russian training camp. He was a long shot in any event.

Komisarek is the one player on the team with the potential to be a superstar. No offense to Chris Higgins, but I think that the team will revolve around Komo and Plekanec moreso than him in the near future.

In my "books".

Big night for Ryan White and the Calgary Hitmen. White had 2 G, 2 A, in an 8-1 blowout over Medicine Hat. I think the Hitmen were down 0-2 in the series prior to tonight's game. Ryan now in the thick of the playoff scoring race with 11 points in 10 games.

Best news for me is that they seem to be going hard after Valentenko. I'm really excited to see what he can do in North America, after watching him at the WJC. Chances of seeing him play at the World Championships went from slim to none, unfortunately, as he left camp due to an injury.

Valentenko left the team due to an injury. Maybe next year.

Eventually.

Yeah, Halak has beaten the numbers of the #1 overall pick at every level so far, although he lags behind by a year or so at each stage. But he is half a year younger as well.

Nor is anyone likely too in the future. But Halak came within a whisker of being the top rookie goaltender in the NHL, is about even odds to be an NHL starter next season, and will carry the load for his country at the World Championships, all before his 22nd birthday and while still eligible for the Calder Trophy next season. I think Dryden was 23 when he won the Conn Smythe and his first Cup, 24 when he won ROTY.

Yeah, you could be right. No one seemed to press him on the point. Maybe it falls somewhere between our respective interpretations, as in Kostitsyn will NOT go back to the AHL. If he cannot win a top two (or possibly three) spot in training camp, he will be dealt.

Volchenkov is the same age, the same type of defenseman, and had identical stats to Komisarek last season. He got $2.5 million per for a 3 year deal. If you want Komo for 4, look at about $3 million per season. He and Higgins will get similar deals, I don't know how you could have them so far apart. Neither will sign long term though, I don't think. I also think they will negotiate as a pair. They want to be in the position to stay or leave together at the same time. All of your other estimations are similarly optimistic. The salary cap has gone up 10% from last year. None of the players will sign long term like you wish, and the short term deals will be a lot higher than you estimate.