GDT: Panthers @ Canadiens - February 2nd

[dlbalr]

Well, then you expect another work stoppage. No way is the cap going to decrease.

Actually, I do unfortunately. The hiring of Don Fehr, though good for the players, isn't for the owners and considering the floor now exceeds the original cap, the small market teams will be crying foul. Since a CBA needs I think 67% ratification, I can easily see the Florida's of the world holding this thing back, at least to start the 12-13 season.

[saskhab]

The last lockout was NOT about the small markets... it was about cost certainty. Achieving it upped the value of all franchises, and there really hasn't been that much complaining about it, really. For two to three years before the fall of 2004, owners were speaking out and Bettman and Daly were giving bleak outlooks on the league's future. There is none of that kind of rhetoric this time around.

The NHL has a bidding war over a new TV deal brewing, too, with Versus, NBC, Comcast and ESPN all in the picture. They've got a marquee event in the Winter Classic. There is just way too much to lose... they had none of this in 2004.

All the fear I've read about has simply been from op-ed columnists/commentators. None of it is based in reality.

There will be some interesting negotiations: Olympics, increased revenue sharing, escrow, European games, competition committee power, maybe even the entry draft (Bettman has stated he'd like draft age to be 19)... but I can't see how revenue % gets affected at all... they will just negotiate a new set of %'s for the next seven years, probably based on the old formula.

[dlbalr]

One thing I expect is the dissolution of the annual 5% booster the PA has on the cap. That alone will quell a good chunk of the increases, unless that TV deal becomes a huge boon for the league.