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Free Agent Frenzy


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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

Yeah he wants 5 or more years and teams want more medicals right now


That makes sense. Carrying an expensive player two or three years on LTIR can really hurt.


If the medicals are OK, five years is actually a pretty reasonable term.

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A good analysis on UFA/RFA contract values in the Athletic today (by Don Luszczyszyn):



His analysis suggests that only about 30% of the UFA contracts over $1M AAV provide replacement value or better. In almost every case you will be getting to the last few years of the contract and the player will be barely third-pair or fourth-line material, and yet the team is paying $10M ballpark for even those years. The last few years the former UFA will be a drag on the team's performance, and a candidate for a buyout. None of the expected-positive contracts are for more than four years.


Panarin is the best of the long-term ones but even he is expected to provide positive value for only four of the seven years. Duchene is expected to be positive for two of the eight years, Kevin Hayes none at all. And, yes, Chiarot is expected to be negative all three years, good thing it's not a big contract.


The picture is not very pretty for anyone signing a big-name UFA.

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