The Chicoutimi Cucumber

It makes sense to get Frolov because we are still lacking a top-6 forward (this assessment includes Kostitsyn as a top-6 forward, a debatable assumption 2/3 of the time). Whether the cap numbers work is another question, but it's notable that the guys Gauthier is not re-signing seem to be significantly more expensive than the Ellers and Boyds will be. EDIT: Capgeek has the Habs with 5.6 mil to sign Price and Lapierre. OK, scratch Frolov, barring a trade.

If you ask me, taxes should be exempt from the cap hit. Why should teams suffer because of their jurisdiction's tax policy? Such an exemption would one of those sensible policies - like legalizing drugs, or charging violators a per centage of their income rather than a flat penalty for traffic violations - that will never happen, alas. More generally, those who condemn Montreal for 'overpaying' on contracts do need to consider the tax hit. Indeed, taxes factored in, even Scott Gomez is not nearly as overpaid as he appears to be...I don't know the exact numbers, but if you're right that Halak would pay an extra million in taxes, say 1.5 for Gomez - that drops his tax-adjusted salary down to 5.5, something like that. Scary to contemplate. But this could also account for Gainey's willingness to take on that contract. He may have simple shrugged and said, 'well, in THIS tax jurisdiction, that's what we'd have had to pay Gomez anyway.'

I don't care about 'North American,' but I don't know why anyone would want us to dump Maxime Lapierre. He's been inconsistent in his young career, but a Lapierre on his game is exactly the kind of guy our teams needs. It's not surprising that he struggled in a season where practically everyone on the team was dumped and a new coach came in. He didn't adjust well, but he should get another chance at least. Aaron Asham - haven't followed him closely, but if we aren't going to acquire a top-6 forward and he can be signed at a reasonable rate, he seems to be perfect for our bottom six.

Good post as always, Wamsley. I was waiting for you to descend upon this thread with your usual clarity. Your Auld-Ellis comparison makes me feel better, inasmuch as it suggests we didn't pointlessly waste a chance to acquire a real #1A goalie. It's one thing to shoot yourself in the foot, it's another to make the tough choices in a cap system. As always, time will tell...

I see your point. As a fan, though, what I wanted back then was HOPE for a better team in the future. Losing Souray for nothing in a pathetic lunge for 8th place did nothing to provide that. (To make matters worse, Gainey foolisly traded Huet for a pick when we actually had a chance to go really deep in 08. He got it exactly backwards). Anyway: spilled milk.

Yeah, Boyd is not an obvious upgrade on either of those guys, although he is cheaper and younger - not insignificant considerations. I see no reason to think our bottom-6 is any better now than it was at the end of last year, though. Indeed with Metro gone we arguably have less depth.

That team had zero chance of doing anything even if it scraped into the playoffs. Souray was having a career season and should definitely have been dealt for a quality young player. (If Rivet got us Gorges, what would Souray have yielded??). Having said that, Gainey wasn't just trying to make the playoffs, he was also trying to get UFAs to sign with us and trying to shift the franchise's reputation as a bottom feeder. Keeping Souray around probably had as much to do with trying to change perceptions about the organization as anything else. Still, I disagreed with him then and still do.

Habs29retired is *probably* too pessimistic because he isn't factoring in all the chaos the team had to endure last season, from injuries to the most gigantic chemistry experiment in league history. There is reason to believe that - bonded by the great playoff drive as well as by the expulsion of toxic waste from the dressing room - this team which play much more cohesively from the get-go. What prevents me from real optimism is the goalie crapshoot. IF Price delivers, and barring further major injuries, we can be quite a good team. But when you look at the competition, it IS hard to see us finishing higher than 7th. Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Philly should be locks to do better. Tampa is improving and Jersey is Jersey. There's always teams that fall back and surge forward, though. But on paper I'd slot us 7th, provided, again, Price steps up.

Correct on both points!

I imagine that Auld will be serviceable in his 20 games or whatever. The question is whether Price will excel in his 60. He certainly might. Then again he might not. He's never done that before at this level. Nor have his playoffs been reassuring. So, as I say, it's a leap of faith. The season now rests on a 'work in progress' who, if he falters, is at grave risk of being ripped to shreds by media and fans. As for Ellis, he is now going to compete with Mike Smith for starting time, so I'd guess that - assuming that Habs just weren't penny-pinching - the key variable was that Tampa told him the best performer would get the starts, while Montreal told him they wanted him to 'help Price.' (Which is apparently how they pitched the job to Auld). Conversely, it's possible that Smith calculated he'd have a better chance to get starts in a fair fight with Smith rather than Price; in which case Price comes out looking pretty good. I sure hope it's the latter, because I do not understand why the best performer would NOT get the starts. (The two-year term for Ellis cannot have been the deal-breaker. If Desjardins is ready next season - and Price has finally put together a compelling, consistent season - then you move Ellis, that's all). On balance, BTH seems to be right. We probably could have had Ellis but chose not to.

Well, like I said to BTH somewhere, if we do upgrade at FW I'll feel a bit happier about the downgrade at G. All we have so far is a net loss. (No pun intended). It's very early though.

You're right that it doesn't matter Nothing we say on here does, in the big scheme of things. But you may be confused because you think I'm saying Ellis is better than Price. No. I'm saying I'd feel comfortable with Price and Ellis because Ellis is a quality starter who can carry the ball for extended stretches if Price immolates. Auld is more of a classic backup. In short, better to have two #1As who can spell each other off than one #1A and a backup. As for the wider theme of this thread, we have a signficiant question mark in goal and an ongoing hole in the top-6. Our bottom 6 is probably comparable to what it was at the end of last year, and our D is improved due to Subban. I won't relax until the question mark in goal has been definitively answered.

It shows he is not yet a proven, convincing #1 goalie in the NHL, yes.

Sigh...you guys are taking me far too literally. My bad. All I'm saying is, you go from a situation where you have high-level depth at a key position, to a situation where your team is critically dependent on a player who has not yet demonstrated that he can do what you absolutely need him to do. That is an unnecessary risk for excessively high stakes IMHO. PM Koivu called this 'all in' strategy on Price a 'shrewd move.' I think his poker analogy proves exactly the opposite. It could work all out. But it's quite a dangerous risk, and the risk probably could have been mitigated considerably. But hey, if you want to make yourself feel better by pretending that Price is a proven elite netminder, be my guest.

? What's 'baseless' about saying that we need another top-6 forward and that the only obvious place the money can come from is Hammer's swollen and expiring contract? Hey, if we can sign that forward while keeping Hammer, I'm all for it. I'm pretty confident that Gauthier wants to fix the hole in the top 6. He's not an idiot. However, after a while it starts to be like the habs' ongoing problems at centre over the entire Gainey era: a glaring, ridiculously obvious weakness that the team somehow fails at address year after year. Eventually excuses pall; you need solutions. Yes, it's far too soon to attack Gauthier for not solving it. But if we head into the playoffs next year with this roster of forwards, then it will become reasonable to bitch about it. Anyway, your thread asked for our 'expectations' based on the team as is. And what I say is, I will temper my expectations until Price has put together a compelling full season and playoff, AND until we have at least 5 quality, reliable forwards in the top 6. EDIT: That Ellis lost his job to Rhinne (sp?) proves he's a #1A, which is what we need.

Agreed. He could represent a fan-friendly patchwork solution for the gaping hole in our top-6. Not sure about moving AK for him, though. It might be worth holding onto AK to see how he does without his whiny puke of a brother on his shoulder. Also, if we trade a 'top-6' winger for Gagne, we remain one player short in the top-6. Considering that gagne is injury-prone, the net result could be Pleks playing with the likes of Darche, White, Eller, etc., for waaay too much of the season.

We have a very solid core. I like Gomez, Gionta, and Cammy - always have - and I like Pleks. Our back end is substantially improved with Subban. We are still short at least one top-6 forward - a weakness that plagued us all season long, except for a few weeks when Pouliot was on fire, and then came back to kill us against Philly. And this assessment generously lists Kostitsyn as a top-6er. Our bottom 6 seems stronger than it was going into last season, but not necessarily stronger than it was at the end of last season (whether Eller can jump in and play effectively will make a significant difference). Our goaltending may be fine, but on paper is quite substantially weaker. The real problems are that we've bet the rent on Carey Price without adequate justification, AND that we still haven't addressed the glaring lack of a #5-6 forward. The former is a high-risk gambit that could pay off. The latter is a 100% guaranteed weakness and it really is unseemly for Gauthier to make no serious attempt to fix it. They really need to move Hammer's contract and replace him with a cheaper defenceman, using the extra dough to sign a Frolov. All that being said, I'd be cautiously enthusiastic that our regular season results will improve due to solidified chemistry and team character, if we weren't crossing our fingers in net. As it is, I'll be adopting a wait and see attitude for the entire season, not fully trusting Price not to have another one of his meltdowns.

Right. And risking both Price's future and the success of the Habs' entire season in the process. It's akin to ditching Markov and replacing him with Niinimaa because you want to find out whether Subban can be a legitimate #1 defenceman in the NHL. 'All in,' yes. Smart? No.

If this is indeed Price's year, then he will win the #1 job straight out regardless of who his backup is. Therefore, there would have been nothing wrong with hiring Ellis; if Price dominates, you can always move Ellis. If Price falters, you've got a bona-fide #1A guy to go to. The argument that 'management thinks Price is ready' would cut more mustard with me if management had not been repeatedly wrong about that before. The same is true of the 'destiny' argument: heard it all before, and absolutely SQUAT has come out of it. True, we're not privy to inside information. What we ARE privy to is the fact that Price has been a yo-yo in his young career so far, played himself out of the #1 goalie role last season, and did not particularly impress in his playoff starts either. I see no rational grounds for optimism here, just blind faith in the wisdom of a management team that has mismanaged Price from the start and continuing mystical belief in the supposed inevitability of Carey Price's greatness. Again: I am emphatically NOT trying to slag Price. I just don't see any ground for arbitrarily yanking his (and by extension, the franchise's) safety net at this stage in his development.

Yes, I could at least live with the present, high-risk combo at G if it comes with a substantial upgrade at FW...although I still would be nervous about the Price-or-bust strategy. As it stands right now we're subsantially weaker in the one area where we outclassed the opposition least season, and not obviously better anywhere else. But unlike a lot of the people who are panicking because of what other teams have done, I am prepared to see what else PG has up his sleeve before I anoint this offseason a bust.

Sakiq, thanks for your thoughtful post. I actually agree with most of your argument; the thing is, I wasn't arguing that we should give up on Price, which is the proposition that you eloquently refute. What I'm saying is that Price was clearly not The Man last season, and therefore it is a dramatic leap of faith to assume that he will suddenly become The Man this season. Yes, I am reasonably sure that Price will eventually become a terrific NHL starter, but I just don't see any special ground for thinking that it *must* be next year. And if it turns out NOT to be next year, then not only is the season down the toilet (barring a miracle from Auld/Desjardins) but Price's entire future in Montreal could be in serious jeopardy. Part of what's driving my concern here is precisely that I want Price to develop and remain long-term. Potentially throwing him to the wolves is not the way to do that. Price has given no sign that he is ready to fly without the safety net of a #1A guy behind him. That's why the Auld signing is, as I said before, like bunjee jumping on a shoelace. In BTH's terms, I have faith in Price's future. His present is a dodgier proposition.

Who do I want? Dan Ellis :puke:

Gauthier had BETTER do something to help the forwards and/or D, because he has decided to bungee jump on a shoestring when it comes to goaltending. Not sure that a Frolov or Volchenkov would make me feel better, but it would at least offer a distraction.

Well, colour me pessimistic. Yes, Auld and even Sanford are serviceable backups. But on what basis, exactly, are we to conclude that Carey Price - who I like, but who lost the starter's job last season and consistently played just well enough to lose - will suddenly step up and become a guy you can depend on to give you ace netminding for 60+ games? What magical transformation has occured since May that ensures he will be able to yield a winning record, when he has put up disastrous W-L totals since February 2009? I had no problem in dealing Halak, because I assumed we were going to secure a serious #1A guy who would be able to step into the breach in the event that Price struggles again. The Kostitsyn deal suggsted as much. Now we lose Ellis because we refused to cough up an extra half-mil. Yes, the cap is tight. But goaltending is not the place to take colossal risks in order to save peanuts. So now what? If Carey Price struggles early, the fans will absolutely rip him to shreds a la Patrice Brisebois - perhaps finally destroying him in this city. And if he struggles, all the Habs have to fall back on is Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Gauthier has decided to play Russian Roulette with the 2010-11 season, and possibly the longer-term future of the team is Price gets dismantled as a result of being inadequately protected. We may come through OK. Price may take that jump. But in hockey terms this looks like an absolutely terrible, cross-your-fingers-and-pray decision to me.

He has some talent, no question. But his previous coaches in Hamilton expressed surprise at his work ethic in his NHL rookie season - a warning flag if you ask me - and Kostitsyn was reassigned to Hamilton under Carbo as well, not just JM. Then he showed up to camp out of shape and lackadaisical and demanded a trade after being sent down; following this he alienated his teammates, then slagged both them and Habs management in the press. This guy is toxic waste. I see no reason to blame JM that Sergei is an a**hole.