hab29RETIRED

The problem with moving our older players is that I believe that Gomez, Pleks and Cammy have no trade clauses. Who would want Gomez at his salary??? If our players don't meet the their potential, its a moot point, since we will suck and gave up Halak for nothing. Traded by giving up a 2nd round pick for Tinordi, who doesn't pan out. lats was dumped for nothing. My post was meant to be a response to all those praising the goat for his moves. If the young guys pan out, we probably can't afford them becasue of the ridicious signings from last year. If they don't then the love-in every one has with going along with the Goat is misplaced and we are in for more mid-level mediocrity.

The habs probably won't consider an option that all other successful teams are doing until the loophole is closed. Why they wouldn't have taken that approach last year with Cammerleri and Gionta is beyond me. Instead they ended up doing what no teams want to do anymore - offer a 35 year old Spacek a 3 year deal (can't count the Pronger deal, because the Flyers didn't seem to understand the rules well enough in their attempts to cirumvent the cap rules. BTW, My orignal lineup from an earlier post had already factored in considering the cap situaiton 3 years from now that does not include AK46, Hammer or Spacek. Even if the cap is say $62M, these are the cap issue I still see: Our big 5 contracts that will still be on the books: Gomez - $7.2M Cammilari - $6M Gionta $5M Plekanec - $5M That's $23.2M for around 280 points of offence from the forwards. In three years we are going to be in a tough situation if some of the kids do pan out and we have to resign them and the rest of the forwards and goalies for around $37M (assuming the salary cap keeps going up and the next collective bargaining doesn't end up with a reduced salary cap. From the current players, lets say Price and Subban turn out to be studs we all want them to become and Markov and Gorges are resigned, we probalby have the following additions to the cap hit: -Markov $5.5M - assuming he is signed for about the same salary -Gorges $3M -Subban $4M (will probably be a RFA offer sheet candidate, give the SJ offer) -Price $4.5M That's another $17M, which brings the cap hit to $40.2M for 8 players, leaving $21.8M to sign the following: Fill out the top two lines two lines and one other center, as well as the defence: -Lars Eller - $2.5M would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Pouliot - $4M (Would be a UFA) -Avitsin - $2.5M- would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Paciroetty - $2M - assuming he becomes a 20/50 man (or if the habs have someone else with similar numbers) -Weber/or another Dman $2M -Tinordi - $850k -Obyrne/replasment - $1.5M That's a total of $17.35M, bring the total salary to $57.55m. That leaves around $4.45M for five 3rd/4th line players, a back up goalie AND any bonus payments that rookies would be due (i.e. Tinordi, Leblanc, Kristo or others).

Why would the players only get raises if the habs win the cup??? -If Pouliot and Eller score 30+ goals they will get their money or have to be moved. $4M for 30+ goals is the market - possibly under market rates, given that the habs gave AK46 $3M for scoring 20+ goals as an RFA. -Ditto with Avitsin, if he produces and doesnt' get a significnat increase, why would he stick around in the NHL?? -Given what RFA dmen are getting, if Subban turns into a 15-20 goal and 50-60 point dman he will get his money in his next contract. The kings are already expecting to have to pay Doughty and Johnson big money once their entry level deals are up. -If Price is still here in 3 years he will be getting between $4M and $5.5M -Gorges and Markov are UFA's next year. $5.5M for Markov is less then his current rate, while Gorges will more then double his current salary. -In three years Weber or whoever the other Dman that steps up will get at least $2M -IF Obyrne is still around or if someone else steps in that role, the minimum hit will be $1.5M. -If maxpax produces he will also get an increase. -Any rookies will be due rookie bonuses. I really don't see why you would think players aren't going to get a raise unless the habs win the cup??? If that was the case, the leafs as a last place team wouldn't have been up against the cap. Hell even Edmonton was pretty close to the cap.

I don't agree with that. Chicago's the only real example of that and the reason they had to blow up their team is because of two incredibly stupid free agent signings - $7M for Campbell and $5.5M for Huet. Then on top of that they were forced to resign their RFA's at a much higher rate then they would have if Tallon hadn't screwed up last year and got the qualifying offers to thier RFA's in on time. Instead, to avoid going to arbitration to settle the situation and risk their RFA's becoming UFA's, they ended up resigning their players at a much higher salary then they would have, had they got their qualifying offers in on time. How Dale Tallon got another job is beyond me. Everyone goes on what a great job he did building the hawks - not hard to do, if you tank it for 5-8 years like the Hawks, Pens and Caps have done. Pittsburgh has too much tied up at center and with Malkin and Crosby making $9M/year, they have no room to make mistakes like the paying Brooks Oprik $3.75M. They would be much better off either moving one of their centres or converting one of them to a winger. Most teams have to be blown apart my mistakes in UFA signings - not RFA. That's whats got me worried about the habs. We have a minimum of 4 years of the following big ticket contracts left: Gomez - $7.2M Cammilari - $6M Gionta $5M Plekanec - $5M That's $23.2M for around 280 points of offence from the forwards. In three years we are going to be in a tough situation if some of the kids do pan out and we have to resign them and the rest of the forwards and goalies for around $37M (assuming the salary cap keeps going up and the next collective bargaining doesn't end up with a reduced salary cap. From the current players, lets say Price and Subban turn out to be studs we all want them to become and Markov and Gorges are resigned, we probalby have the following additions to the cap hit: -Markov $5.5M - assuming he is signed for about the same salary -Gorges $3M -Subban $4M (will probably be a RFA offer sheet candidate, give the SJ offer) -Price $4.5M That's another $17M, which brings the cap hit to $40.2M for 8 players, leaving around $20M to sign the following: Fill out the top two lines two lines and one other center, as well as the defence: -Lars Eller - $2.5M would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Pouliot - $4M (Would be a UFA) -Avitsin - $2.5M- would be about the minimum, assuming he does become an impact player -Paciroetty - $2M - assuming he becomes a 20/50 man (or if the habs have someone else with similar numbers) -Weber/or another Dman $2M -Tinordi - $850k -Obyrne/replasment - $1.5M That's a total of $17.35M, bring the total salary to $57.55m. That leaves around $2.65m for five 3rd/4th line players, a back up goalie AND any bonus payments that rookies would be due (i.e. Tinordi, Leblanc, Kristo or others). So, IMO, even if everything works out fine with the young guys we are counting on, we are going to be in a very tough situation in a few years because of last years spending spree by Gainey. I know, i keep on getting comments on my pessimism, but its hard to be optimistic when you look at our future salary commitments. At the end of the day its the Gomez salary that is going to be anchor on any moves the habs can make, just as the Campbell salary will is to the hawks (since they are planning to dump Huet to the minors anyways).

Frankly, I don't see Price staying with the habs once he is a UFA, unless we lock him up for those UFA years now.

I don't believe in paying a young player a high-end salary for a short-term contract. If Price is only looking for a 2-3 year deal that will take him to his UFA status, then why should we pay him top dollar now when he hasn't proven he can carry the load as a #1??? And i don't consider two half year stints of success as being a proven starting goalie. Everybody knows he has the talent - whether he has the mental make up to succeed IN MONTREAL is a whole different question. If we are going to pay Price top dollar, it should be a longer term deal that goes a couple of years into his UFA years. Otherwise, why pay a guy who has not had a complete SOLID year. IMO, based on his play, his previous salary AND what we have to qualify him for $1.5M should be a fair number if he is only looking for a 1 year deal as reported, around $2M if he is looking for a 2 year deal and around $3.5M if he is willing to sign a 4-5 year deal. I hate the fact that we are going to be impacted by other stupid decisions like the ridiculous Lehtonon deal - a big contract for an injury prone goalie who is getting a contract for his draft position and not for what he has done in the NHL. I have no issue for a guy like Halak or Hillier who have put together a solid season and playoff run getting rewarded, by their willingness to include their UFA year's in their current contract. I do have an issue with rewarding players who have had a good short stints but have not shown a solid season and they still want high dollar value short term deals. It makes no sense to me that the cap numbers that are being thrown out for what NJ and LA are willing to pay Kovulchuk are around $6M and then Mikko Koivu is given a $6.75m contract for 71 points. I think is a Koivu is great player and would love to have on the habs - but not at those numbers. Just like I think it is highway robbery that Gomez is getting paid $7.2M for one good season when for his career he has only demonstrated he is a 60 point guy. It is frustrating that stupid managment decisions by some clubs effect the entire market. Cliff Fletcher paid a ridicilous $3.5M to Jeff friggin Finger and now his idiot son pays $6.75 to Koivu???? I don't care if he is a all-round player, but for that production, the salary should be around $5.5M. It's one thing to sign a Crosby, Ovechkin or Malkin to rich contracts when theyhave given up some of their UFA year's, but its utter stupidity to offer the same money to UFA's for short-term deals taht do not include their UFA years. Anyway, I'm getting off to a tangent. My main point is if you are going to pay a young playr based on potential - you better be damn sure to lock him up long-term so at least you are also benefiting for locking him up at a high rate. It make zero sense to pay a guy double what he is worth (based on past performance) for a short-term deal, so you drive up his qualifying offer higher for his next contract. The owners negotiated a collective bargaining agreement to control player salaries before their UFA years. The utter stupidity and incompetance of some GM's has completely thrown the market out of wack and undermined what they negotiated. What was the friggin point of the lockout if the same stupid owners drive salaries unnecessarily high by paying out contracts that they don't have to give????

There's no way that Price should make more then around $1.5M, but he'll probably get close to $3M.

Umm how much passion did Lats show last year? How about Laps during the regular season???

Yep. Like Louis Leblanc was BPA in 2009.

+1 No point in having a Jason Smith or Ethan Moreau situation in Montreal.

That's why I they shold try and get Price signed ASAP. As far as future strikes on RFA's. As long as you keep some cap flexibility to match, you really don't have to worry. If the offer is high enough, it may even be worth walking away from, if the the multiple draft picks are a worth more then the player. But sounds like a moot point if the #2 pick Gauthier gave up for Moore was next year's pick. As far as bold moves, I totally agree about the lack of boldness by the habs. It sounds like Philly signed Zherdev for only $2M. If Zherdev is willing to come back from to the NHL for $2M, he should be motivated to put up some pretty good numbers this year.

There is a diffference between having a lot of players signed on defence and having a good defence core or good depth at defence. We have a lot of Dmen that are #5-7, but really only Markov and Subban as elite dmen and Gorges is great as #4-5. IMO, the team really should only have one of Hamrlik, Spacek and Gill. Given salaries, I'd keep Gill and get another decent Dman to replace Hamrlik (who would be great for $2.5M, but is a ripoff at $5.5M) and Spacek. i'd LOVE to have Bobby Ryan, but on offense, IF Pouliot can come in stronger and IF AK46 comes in with his head screwed in right and IF Eller can at least contribute strongly as a third liner, we shold be better up front. That's a lot of ifs, but I'm much more worried about the age and transition game from our D. Either we have guys whose best years are behind them (Spacek, Hamrlik), big slow guys (Gill, O' Byrne) who can't move the puck to the advantage of our speed up front, or young inexperienced guys who still need to prove the belong (Weber, Carle). To get a guy like Ryan - who has already turned down $5M+ from Anaheim, we would need to offer over $6M, which can't be accomplished by moving Gomez alone. We would also have to move at least hamrlik as well. I would be much more optimistic about next year, if the habs could move Gomez and Harmlik for a Bobby Ryan, Lombardi type center and a Timonen type Dman. Damn was that next year's pick. Great to give up the 2nd rounder for a guy for 3 months. According to the Murray's media interviews, they already offered him $5M and were turned down. Burke is really high on him, i'm glad the leafs don't have picks either.

Niklas Hjalmarsson just got offered $14-million over four-years from the Sharks. If he can get that much, I don't think it would be a stretch to think that Subban would get offered more in two years time. Everyone's favourite internet nerd Eklund is reporting the Habs may be putting an offers sheet together for Bobby Ryan. If that happens that would be one of the few times, I'd actually hoping that clown's site is right.

The point isn't just how much he was paid. There was NO REASON to make the offer at the time they did. They could have just gave him a qualifying offer now and signed him later. Get Laps signed and then get Price and Pouliot signed. Being overly generous to Pouliot is going to cost them with Laps as well. The other thing is, if you are going to overpay, try and get another year added on at that rate. It amazes me how GM's seem to be bargaining against themselves at times.

I would say its $2.5M over given his production the past three years. $2.5M would bring more depth to the D. But the point is the number of dumb big contracts we have. We have almost $13M tied up in Gomez and Hamrlik this year. $16.5M tied up to Gomez, Hamrlik and Spacek. You start adding up this signings and you are really limiting your chances of success. I would gladly have taken Lombardi at $3.5M or $3.75M over Gomez's $3.7M without thinking twice about it.

I don't call getting into fights with the other teams 3rd/4th liners very smart. If Gomez fought a Richards or Crosby, it would be worth the trade-off. But getting into it with marginal players is a lousy tradeoff - something a vetern like him should know! There are other teams looking to move big contracts. Jeff Carter would be one option. At least his production warrents his contact. With the number of teams looking for cap flexibility right now, this is the ideal time to have room to take on a big contract. As far as Tampa goes, i think they can finish higher then us this year, now that there management/ownership circus is gone.

I'm note seeing the habs should sign him for $5M/per after his entry level deal is up in 2012, I'm saying you will probably will end up having to. The GM's in this league keep on undermining their own collective bargaining agreement. Parise is the exception. ALmost every other young star has been signed to stupid extentions while they have been free agents. Look at Bobby Ryan in Anaheim. He has turned down in excess of $5M/per season as an RFA. Crosby and malkin got $8.7M, Oveckin around $9M, Kane/Toews bewtween $5m-$6m. GM's don't have to, but out of fear that someone will pull a Kevin Lowe, who offered Vanek $7M and then penner over $4M, they end up over-paying. I don't know what Parise's numbers were after his first contract was up, but that may have factored into the equation. Most GM's these days are offering way more then they need to. These days RFA's are getting better deal's then UFA's. I think the rationale is that if you are going to sign someone to a big long-term deal, they would rather sign a 22-23 year old for 7 years then a 27 year old. What they forget is that there is no reason to pay RFA's more. Look at Pouliot. There was absolutely NO REASON for not just offering him a qualifying offer and then negotiating a deal later. Instead he gets a huge raise for really only producing for 1/4 of the season and doing nothing in the playoffs. Most GM's in this leaugue are idiots. Others like Holland have set a bar and they stick to it. Given what Gauthier has already signed Pouliot to, do you think he is going to show the restraint needed going forward? Il'm still worried what he is going to offering Price this year, let alone what others will get 3 years from now.

RFA's are actually getting a lot more money in the past because teams don't want to risk letting them become UFA's. With the threat of an offer sheet, top tier RFA's are actually getting the same type of money that UFA's USED to get. Teams are willing to sign RFA's for more money in exchange for signing them past their UFA years. Philly signed Carter and Richards to $5M+ after their initial 3 year deals. After their initial 3 year deals, Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin all cashed in for $8M+. Big money were paid to Toews, Kane and Keith in Chicago after their initial contracts. LA is not signing the UFA Kovulchuk becuase they are worried that in a year Doughty and Johnson will become RFA's. This is the reality of the post-cap NHL. If Subban puts up 60-65 points by the end of year 3, he will be looking for $5M+ and if we want to sign him for 2-4 years into his UFA years, it may cost more. The smart move now is to lock up your young core tplayers o longer term cap friendly contracts. Top tier players are now signed to big contracts before hitting UFA. Big risk is that what if a guy has a big year in year 2 or 3, and gets signed to a big contract extention, he may go Gomez on you (i.e. contract year gets 80+ points and then regresses to a 55-60 point player). I dont' see why people on this site have such an aversion of trying to move a guy, just becuase he was signed as a free agent or traded to bring in a free agents. There seems to be some stupid stupid perception that no one will want to play for a team that moves a guy that signed as a ufa - which isn't even the case with Gomez. Hell, Philly, Boston and the NYR have been doing that for years and they have absolutely no problem in signing players. They have all dumped bad signings and got players to waive NTC or have waived bad signings. God forbid someone suggests that the habs do the same and everyone here goes paranoid on how classless that is. This is a business, if you make a mistake, you need to correct it. In a cap system the margin for error is to small. Look at the Blackhawks. They just won a cup and started dismantling their team to keep their core - which is what the Habs SHOULD have done in 1979 after Dryden, the roadrunner and Lemaire retired. The Hawks WILL dump Huet to the minors to get rid of his cap hit. They still won't have any issues attracting top players. No one is going to stop signing with Philly, for asking Gagne to waive his NTC, or Boston for asking Thomas to waive his NTC. Philly asked Roenick to waive his no NTC and dumped him to the lowly Kings and had absolutely no issues in getting UFA's to sign. Or don't people remember that Briere signed with them after that and not the habs.

contract length has to be factored in, only becuase you don't want to be changing captaincy every year or two. In the past the team pretty much controlled player movement, with free agency player movement went up and now with the cap their is going to be even greater player movement.

The three big difference in the Ducks example is that first of all, Burke god rid of the horrible contract they had in Fedorov (for us its Gomez), lucked out by picking up two stud defencemen (Kevin Lowe's stupidity and neidermeyer's desire to play with his brother0 and then they manage to also get a top 5 pick to land Bobby Ryan. The last top 5 the habs had was Price. Unless there is another lockout lottery in 2-3 years time, i don't see the habs being bad enough to get an impact player like Ryan through the Draft - given their track record, I've lost all hope of the habs ability to draft a stud with a mid to late pick (like the Ducks did with Getzlaf - who the habs passed on :puke:). What really worries me about the future is that Gomez/Gionta/Cammy are all due big bucks for another 4 years, if Eller, Subban, Price and Pouliot do achieve their potential to become front line players, what do we to remain under the cap in another 2 years when, when you consider the no trade/limited trade contracts are big ticket players have. I just can't see the habs really having a chance at success unless: 1) they move Gomez 2) The luck out and another one of their kids (Kristo or the russian kid they drafted last year) comes into the fold and becomes a top 3 player at a cheap rate.

I'd take Cammy, I think he is the only guy that I'd definatley want to still have in 4-5 years. I like Gionta, but not sure if you'd still want him around during the last 2 years of his contract at $5M. Gomez to me is not captain material - maybe an "A". Takes way too many stupid penalties and lets himself goaded into skirmishes with lesser players. I like Gorges, but he is not signed long term and while he his a heart and soul guy, he may not be a core player in 3years. Pleks got to at least show some leadership (vocally), he seems more like a guy who leads by example - nothing wrong like that - Burnaby Joe in Colardo was the same way, but he was also a top tier elite player. Markov sounds like he is becoming more vocal the past year, but again, he is only signed until next year. I can't see Gill on the team past this year, unless its at a much lower salary and reduced role. IMO, the habs should go back to the practice of having the team vote on a captain in training camp.

depends on the salary. If he signs in the $1.5M range like he did before, it would be a good risk to take. We need guys who can finish AND can drive to the net. I'd rather get a guy like Zherdev though, since i think he has a higher upside - if he grows up!

I like Gagne, but given this team's injury history I'd be pretty leery taking on a guy who has been plagued with back and concussion problems. Sounds like the flyers are getting zherdav. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on a guy at his age and skill level. I know most here would be leery taking on another russian - particularly one who has bolted and has a reputation of not showing up every night. But a guy like that should be a lot cheaper then Gagne, higher risk maybe, but potentially much higher reward.

Good news - hell that's the best news from the habs I've heard this offseason!!

totally agree. The problem is habs mgmt have not been looking at the big picture. As great as this years run was, all it did was move us down around 12 spots in the draft - which in turn also resulted us trading away our #2 pick. Add that with the #2 that was already traded for Moore. But to me the worst is we are stuck with Martin for another year and just lost the one young coach who I had really thought could have become the next great habs coach. There has not been a single player from Hamilton that has not raved about Boucher. Given some of the young players in our system, Boucher would have been the perfect guy to go forward with