Looking ahead to 2007 draft

[bobby]

Maybe with the second first round pick, but can you imagine the spotlight on Esposito if Montreal drafts him? It would be even worse than with Latendresse, and I don't think that Esposito would handle it as well. Probably better for both the player and the team if he is drafted by someone else. The fans are too rabid in Montreal.

[JMMR]

If he is available at the Sharks pick I would be happy if the Canadiens drafted him. He is a high risk but possibly high reward selection so if they can get him in the end of the 1st round why not!

[shortcat1]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=199943&hubname=

Apparently the NHL just changed the format of the next draft. More a team advances in the playoffs, lower his selection will be.

Canadiens didn't vote. I guess Gainey think that SJ will get a worse pick than they would have had with the old system..

I don't know how much it will change the order. I think it's way too complicated for nothing. And trading draft picks gets more complicated, since you know even less what the pick will be.

from what i've read, this change is as a result of detroit's bitching about feeling cheated. they do so well in the regular season and get bounced in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs...

sounds like bébé-lala stuff there... just squeaky-wheeling into a better deal... well, let's see detroit go to the finals for the next handful of years and get bounced there...

i have no sympathy...

GO :hlogo: GO!

[montreal]

Another interesting prospect, defenseman Ben Blood of Shattuck St Mary's School in Faribault, Minnesota. Blood has great size, 6-3, 215, and pretty good hands. Hasn't received the same hype as some previous SSM players since the team is not the powerhouse it was. Off to U North Dakota next year. Top student as well.

Nice call on Ben Blood. I'd add Teddy Ruth and Ian Cole as well. I got to think we will be adding some defensemen for sure. I'd be interested to see if the Habs would take a gamble on Steven Lund or Alex Grant. I've seen more of Grant but I like him, although he seems to be dropping in the rankings, was suprised he wasn't even invited to the Top prospects game but his teammate David Stich was. (there's no way I would take Stich over Grant)

I know someone that scouts for McKeens and has contacts in the scouting world. He says that the Habs don't appear to be too interested in Veilleux but those weren't his exact words. I believe he also said they do like Hamill but he sort of reminds me a bit of Maxwell (but Hamill is smaller and I don't think he's as good of a skater as Maxwell) and the guy did lead the dub in scoring so it's not really a surprise if they do like him.

[bobby]

Nice call on Ben Blood. I'd add Teddy Ruth and Ian Cole as well. I got to think we will be adding some defensemen for sure. I'd be interested to see if the Habs would take a gamble on Steven Lund or Alex Grant. I've seen more of Grant but I like him, although he seems to be dropping in the rankings, was suprised he wasn't even invited to the Top prospects game but his teammate David Stich was. (there's no way I would take Stich over Grant)

I know someone that scouts for McKeens and has contacts in the scouting world. He says that the Habs don't appear to be too interested in Veilleux but those weren't his exact words. I believe he also said they do like Hamill but he sort of reminds me a bit of Maxwell (but Hamill is smaller and I don't think he's as good of a skater as Maxwell) and the guy did lead the dub in scoring so it's not really a surprise if they do like him.

Yeah Hamill doesn't seem like a player they would target in the first round, since they have a few other prospects who are similar and just a bit older. I really think that Torquato and Tropp are underrated as offensive centers though, it would be nice to see them pick up one of those two in the second or third round. Both of them have put up good numbers on low scoring junior teams, both are relatively young in terms of the draft, and both seem like real charcter kids who will continue to improve. Torquato speaks French as well, which is a bonus as far as Montreal is concerned.

Alex Grant is definitely underrated as well. He was put in a tough situation as far as his junior career was concerned, but seems to be doing fairly well despite that.

I'd really like them to draft Antoine Lafleur out of the Q, as well. Doubt they would use a high draft pick, but he may still be there in later rounds. I don't think they will draft a European player in the early rounds, either, unless Cherepanov fell by some miracle.

from what i've read, this change is as a result of detroit's bitching about feeling cheated. they do so well in the regular season and get bounced in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs...

sounds like bébé-lala stuff there... just squeaky-wheeling into a better deal... well, let's see detroit go to the finals for the next handful of years and get bounced there...

i have no sympathy...

GO :hlogo: GO!

I don't think the Wings need sympathy. They seem to do remarkably well at the draft despite constantly picking late in the first round, or not having a first round pick at all.

[montreal]

Yeah Hamill doesn't seem like a player they would target in the first round, since they have a few other prospects who are similar and just a bit older. I really think that Torquato and Tropp are underrated as offensive centers though, it would be nice to see them pick up one of those two in the second or third round. Both of them have put up good numbers on low scoring junior teams, both are relatively young in terms of the draft, and both seem like real charcter kids who will continue to improve. Torquato speaks French as well, which is a bonus as far as Montreal is concerned.

Alex Grant is definitely underrated as well. He was put in a tough situation as far as his junior career was concerned, but seems to be doing fairly well despite that.

I'd really like them to draft Antoine Lafleur out of the Q, as well. Doubt they would use a high draft pick, but he may still be there in later rounds. I don't think they will draft a European player in the early rounds, either, unless Cherepanov fell by some miracle.

Torquato is a guy I could see us being interested in. Tropp I've only heard bits and pieces about but the more I hear the more interesting he sounds. We don't seem to pick many guys from the USHL so I don't know if we are underscouting it or just hasn't worked out. Hamill I can't see falling out of the 1st round but if we don't get him I don't have a problem with that.

Grant was put in a tough spot, I wonder what will happen with Yann Sauve as well since he was also so hyped at the Q draft. I like what I've seen from him but we'll see where he gets ranked for '08.

Lafleur is an interesting goalie and I could see us picking one up. I like Lafleur but I also like some others like Kurtis Mucha from Portland, Dan Rosen from Brown (where Danis played) and Alec Richards from Yale who went undrafted last year after a good freshman year but this year he wasn't as good so they could likely just hold off and invite him to camp. He's big and quick, has been working out with former Rangers goalie Mike Richter.

[bobby]

Toquato and Tropp are nearly a year younger than Hamill, so you really have to compare their current season's with what Hamill did last year. I think he was around a PPG player last season, although the points are tougher to come by in the WHL. His size is just marginal though, and he doesn't bring much else to the table. The success rate of those little fiesty offensive centers from out west (Brule, Upshall, Lundmark, Saprykin, etc.) isn't that great.

Lafleur is a logical pickup as a netminder because he seems like a raw talent who they can work with close to home. The fact that he doesn't seem to be highly ranked means that they wouldn't have to use a premium draft pick on a position where they are fairly deep already.

[bobby]

I think that prior to the draft the Habs will have identified several top players to target and tried to figure out where they will likely be taken. Then it is a matter of shuffling the draft picks to get the guys they want. I think their top two choices would probably be James Van Reimsdyck and Nick Petrecki. As of this time it looks like Van Reimsdyck will go in the top 3 or 4 players. If they can't move up to get him, then they would shift focus to Petrecki who seems to be slotted between the 10 and 15 picks of the draft. Moving up to get Van Reimsdyck would cost both of their first round picks. Or one of them and a prospect. If they don't make that move and get Petrecki at 15 or so, then I think the focus shifts to Max Pacioretty, Maxim Mayorov, Joakim Andersson, Bill Sweatt, Mikael Backlund. One of those players likely to be taken with the San Jose pick.

If they do the deal to get Van Reimsdyck, they would probably be looking for a defenseman in the second round. Tommy Cross, Ryan McDonagh, Colby Cohen, Keaton Ellerby, perhaps. With two third round picks, they could maneuver that second round pick upwards if someone they really like drops a bit. Maxim Goncharov, Joe Lavin, Brendan Smith, Alex Grant, are other defense candidates who would be available in the third round probably. If Antoine Lafleur is available in the third round, I think they would take him, as well. Colton Gillies, Mike Hoeffel, Drayson Bowman, Brett Sonne, are other possibles as two way left wingers in the second or third round.

Assuming they have a big solid defenseman or two, and a big left winger or two, within the first 60 odd picks of the draft then I think they will look for forwards with good offensive skill. Zack Torquato, Corey Tropp, Ben Ryan, Aaron Palushaj, David Perron, Ryan Hayes, Sergei Korostin, Luca Cunti, John Albert, Jeff Desjardins, Vitaly Karamnov, Jason Gregoire, are a few that fit the bill.

Edited March 30, 2007 by bobby

[shortcat1]

wow... i haven't gone that much in depth in my 2007 draft considerations... i usually don't do a whole lot of that till the hockey news draft guide comes out, in june sometime then i start to look at possibilities.

then, as it gets closer i find any lists online that i can... that includes red line report and whatever any other creditable or interesting contributor offers...

then, the dreams start...

GO :hlogo: GO!

[bobby]

There isn't really that much to change things between now and June. Some prospects are already done for the year. For the rest they may play another 10 or 15 playoff games, but regardless how they do, it shouldn't alter their draft status substantially. I'm sure they are scouted and judged on the past 4 or 5 years of their career, not the last 4 or 5 games. Whatever list Tim Timmins has formulated won't change much between now and the draft. Maybe moving a player a couple of spots either way.

[bobby]

P.S. I don't think Redline Report qualifies as a "credible source". It is mostly one guy perusing the internet like you and I to formulate a list. When Woodleif the Mullet does watch a game or tournament he goes way overboard. I recall him saying that players like Lars Jonsson and Vlad Evseev could be the best players of their draft year. Neither has come close to playing in the NHL. In 2001 he said that Jeff Woywitka would be a better defenseman than Mike Komisarek.

[montreal]

There isn't really that much to change things between now and June. Some prospects are already done for the year. For the rest they may play another 10 or 15 playoff games, but regardless how they do, it shouldn't alter their draft status substantially. I'm sure they are scouted and judged on the past 4 or 5 years of their career, not the last 4 or 5 games. Whatever list Tim Timmins has formulated won't change much between now and the draft. Maybe moving a player a couple of spots either way.

I think the U-18's has an effect on the draft overall, some teams will likely not change their list too much but others may change some things if someone breaks out like say Grant or if Trevor Cann stands on his head. Look at what the U-18's did for Kostitsyn, he was dominate in that tournament although he already had an impressive U-20's in Canada that year as a 17 year old, so the hype machine was already in motion.

The playoffs likely have a impact too, look at Brett MacLean with Oshawa who has 5 goals in 4 games or Josh Godfrey who also seems to be doing really well in the playoffs, this should move them up some teams reankings imo. I know Savard had said they were so impressed with Urquhart in the playoffs during his draft year when he had 15 pts. Also Latendresse when he was in the playoffs during his draft year was said to be dominate physically according to Savard and Timmins.

[bobby]

I think it is risky to change your opinion of a prospect based on a few games. Urquhart is probably a good example of that. He wasn't ranked that highly by CSS (behind Lapierre) and the CSS rankings seem pretty solid for the most part. Most huge draft mistakes by teams occur when they go off the board and ignore the CSS opinion.

[bobby]

Add big USHL left winger Brad Malone to the list. Malone was really highly rated a couple of years back, coming out of the Atlantic region, but never developed into the scorer they thought he would be. But he has great size and is a tough two way player. Should have an NHL future as an energy winger a la Garth Murray.

[bobby]

Redline has Petrecki at #12, and Pacioretty at #20, both in the neighbourhood of where the Habs figure to pick in the first round. As much as I hate using Woodlief as a reference, I hope he is right about that much at least.

Next question becomes, is it worth trading Petrecki and Pacioretty for Van Reimsdyck, who is rated at #5 overall by Redline? I think I would be inclined to do that, although I would be happy either way.

He has Gillies and McDonagh in the vicinity of the Habs second round pick as well

[bobby]

Habs will draft 12th overall with their own pick, and anywhere from 17th overall to 30th overall with the Sharks pick depending on the playoffs. But even that will go out the window on draft day in all likelyhood. With the uncertainty about the draft rankings, and all the first round picks that have already changed hands this year, the final draft order will probably be unrecognizable once the dealing is done. I'll stick with my projection, however, either a trade up for Van Reimsdyck, or Petrecki and Pacioretty in the first round for Montreal. Either way, a great start for the 2007 draft for the team.

[montreal]

I saw that Brett MacLean was just given 6 games for a hit from behind in the Oshawa/Bulls series, tough break for Oshawa as he was racking up the points. I am surprised he doesn't get more hype for the numbers he's put up and the fact that's he's got an impressive frame.

[bobby]

I saw that Brett MacLean was just given 6 games for a hit from behind in the Oshawa/Bulls series, tough break for Oshawa as he was racking up the points. I am surprised he doesn't get more hype for the numbers he's put up and the fact that's he's got an impressive frame.

Probably because Oshawa have such a wide open style of play. As poor Loic Lacasse can attest. Most of their games seem to have at least 10 goals scored, and it is just a question of which team gets the last shot.

I think he is a right handed shot and seems very similar to Mathieu Aubin, so I can't see him high on the Habs list.

Looking at the NFL Draft Value Chart, it appears that Montreal's 12 overall pick, combined with their second round pick, would take them to #5 overall. From the buzz it seems like Van Reimsdyck or Gagner could still be there at that spot. Washington has the pick, and I think they would be looking for a defenseman. If Alzner is gone, the Capitals might trade down to get Petrecki or someone else.

Gainey mentioned in the PC what I was saying earlier in the thread that with so many prospects and extra draft picks he would look to package some in a trade. I think he will try to deal a young RW prospect and/or draft picks for a solid LW or D player.

Edited April 11, 2007 by bobby

[bobby]

I think the USHL players in this year's draft pool are really underrated in comparison to players from other junior leagues and the USNTDP. The U is getting better every year, and some players who have played in tournaments against CHL players think there is very little difference in the quality of play. Tristen Llewellyn who has been to several tournaments and played against various CHL players, says it is faster than any Canadian Junior League.

The lack of attention paid to the USHL will be even more pronounced in the coming weeks with the U18 World Championship and the CHL playoffs happening. They only have a very short playoff series of their own, about a dozen games max for the final teams. So, if an NHL team is looking for steals in the upcoming draft, that is the place to be.

[bobby]

Surprised to see that Alex Grant and Corey Tropp were not included on the Central Scouting Combine list. Hopefully that means they will be available in later rounds.

[bobby]

The best case scenario for the Habs in the playoffs is for San Jose to be eliminated in the first round along with the three playoff teams who had more regular season points than they did. Buffalo, Detroit, Anaheim, I think. That would leave Montreal with the #19 pick of the draft. Pretty sure that is the best it can be. Anywhere from there to #30 overall if the Sharks win the Cup.

Edited April 12, 2007 by bobby

[bobby]

Actually in rereading the new draft rules, it appears that #20 might be the highest possible position for the pick they got from the Sharks. Again assuming that SJ loses their first round matchup with Nashville and none of the regular season division winners makes the final four. Pretty tall order...

[bobby]

Maxim Mayorov did not make the final Russian U18 roster. If he was cut and not injured that is bound to cause his draft status to tumble.

[bobby]

Just to expand on the USHL thing, Sam Gagner scored 46 points in 56 games there a year ago. One year later in the OHL he scores 118 points in 53 games . He finished second in scoring for Sioux City to Phil DiSimone who had 53 points in 60 games. DiSimone is back this year and has 72 points in 58 games. Second leading scorer on the team MAX PACIORETTY has 64 points in 58 games.

I have to think that a USHL point is worth as much as an OHL point, or a QMJHL point.

[KoZed]

Living in Quebec City and hearing/seeing a lot about the Remparts, I'm a little wary about Esposito. The kid has had a hard time raising his level of play. He's got awesome wheels and talent, but seems weak between the ears. Kinda reminds me of Ribs.

Besides, I agree with Mathias Brunet who thinks the Habs should keep replenishing their D. We got Fischer, Carle and Valentenko last year, but none of them is a real bluechipper. We could still use another go around at the D-men well.

We especially need D-men who can move the puck fluently. We'll be OK in the physical department with Komi, O'Byrne, Emelin and Valentenko. But our future PP QB is still missing.

Brunet hopes Alzner falls to on our lap at the 12th spot. If he's taken, then Ellerby or Katic could do.

Sadly, its not a good year for D-men. We might have to settle for the BPA and that could well be another forward. But if it ends up being a big natural talent with a huge upside like Espo, then it wouldn't be all that bad.